Bowl Thread

[Smitty]

Insight Bowl

Insight Bowl

dammit, i wasn't going to play this crapfest, but i saw something that jumped out at me, so....

iowa st (+2) 1 unit. iowa st is 4-1 ATS on the road (4-2 if you count the 1-point win over kansas state at kansas city as a 2.5 point fav). minnesota is 1-4 ATS away from home.

leaning towards va tech in the chick-fil-a bowl. not sure if i'll pull the trigger.

 

[Smitty]

Outback Bowl

Outback Bowl

HAPPY NEW YEAR, MADJACKERS!!

that was a lovely reminder of why you don't bet on teams led by one of the stoops brothers in any sort of 'big' game. although i can't help but wonder what might have been if landry jones hadn't made one of the dumbest throws i've ever seen early on to let stanford right back into the game. or, you know, if oklahoma had recovered that fumble in the endzone or just knocked it out of the back of the endzone.

auburn (-8.5) 1 unit. i've flipflopped on this one. a lot of people on northwestern, but the line is creeping up. i know northwestern will play hard, but they are still a mediocre team from a mediocre conference, playing a mediocre team from the best conference in the country. here we have a case of a favorite who should also play hard. auburn should be pretty excited to be playing in a new years day bowl game, and their superior athleticism should be enough today. only concern is if they never got over the tough loss to the crimson tide.

 

[Smitty]

Capital One Bowl

Capital One Bowl

penn state (pk) 1 unit. this was going to be a large play for me, but the line movement tells me i'm probably on the wrong side here. so a smart man would play lsu here. i normally do pretty well on psu games, and i loved them right up until i saw the line movement. now... well, if lsu really comes to play, they should be able to shut down psu's offense without too much trouble. it sounds like the field is in pretty rough shape, but i don't know that will favor either team, as both will look to establish the run.

psu is 4-0 ATS away from home this year. both teams have excellent defenses. the difference is psu has a capable offense.

under (43.5) 1 unit. this also would be a bigger play, but i'm becoming snake bit when it comes to playing unders in bowl games. probably the stronger of my two plays on this game though.

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

orgeon (-4) 2 units. only thing keeping this from being a bigger play is that it seems way too easy. obviously there should be no question of motivation from either team. i know this isn't an original thought, but oregon has so much more team speed. but it's not like they are a finesse team. this won't be a 'speed vs power' matchup. oregon is probably just as big; they are just faster and better overall athletes. look at ohio st vs usc this year... we now all know how mediocre usc was this year... they had a true freshman making his first road start... and they still won at ohio state.

the pac ten has won the last 5 matchups with the big ten in the rose bowl by 14, 32, 14, 14, and 10 points.

the big ten is 0-6 in bcs bowl games the last 3 years.

in short, the gap in talent level between these two teams (and these two conferences) is huge. pryor has enough problems passing against big ten defenses... how's he going to do against a pac ten defense that has some speed? at home against usc, he completed 11 of 25 passes for 0 td's and 1 pick. also, oregon's speed should neutralize pryor's running ability.

 

[Smitty]

Sugar Bowl

Sugar Bowl

florida (-13) 1 unit. i should have grabbed this before the line went up. this one is fairly simple... the line is practically begging for cincinnati money. i don't want to take away anything from the year the bearcats had, but there is a HUGE talent gap in this game. cincinnati was hardly impressive most of the year. they dropped their last 4 ATS. in fact, in their last 9 games, the only teams they covered against were syracuse, louisville, and south florida. they seemed particularly susceptible to physcial teams (with the notable exception of the win at oregon state, but that was very early in the year), and they may not see a more physical defense than florida.
both teams have had to deal with questions regarding their coaching staffs. i'd say cincinnati's desire to show kelly how good they are without him is cancelled out by florida's desire to give a good effort for meyer.

 

[Smitty]

International Bowl

International Bowl

can you feel the excitement??!!

northern ill (+7) 1 unit. if the mac wasn't so damn bad, this would be for 2 units. but this is purely an anti-south florida play. as i've said before, i like playing against undisciplined teams in situations when i'm pretty sure they won't be motivated. gotta believe that's the case today. northern ill lost at wisconsin and won at purdue this year, so they won't be intimidated. i think they'll be able to establish some sort of ground game (they need to if they want to stay in this game) and they should win the turnover battle.

 

[Smitty]

Papa John's Bowl

Papa John's Bowl

little caesars...papa johns... when is the pizza hut bowl?

sorry for the terrible call on oregon. i didn't like either team, and should have known to stay away from that game.

uconn (+3.5) 2 units. a couple things i like here.

uconn is 6-0 ATS both on the road and as a dog.

south carolina is one of those teams i love to play on as a dog and against as a fav... very good defense, suspect offense. simply playing the 'dog in sc games this year, you would have gone 8-3.

i doubt motivation will be an issue for the huskies. i don't think you can can set foot on the field for coach edsall and not play hard. sc, on the other hand... after losing 4 out of 5 games (all against good teams), they got revenge against clemson. i don't know that they'll care all that much for the papa john's bowl against uconn.

 

[Smitty]

Cotton Bowl

Cotton Bowl

oklahoma st (+3) 2 units. ah, my ol' friends, ol' miss. last year, the rebels in the cotton bowl were the biggest play i've ever made on a football game. this year... what a disappointment. similar situation, too... going against a high-scoring team from the big 12. last year though, they came out of nowhere, and were plenty motivated in that game. this year... huge pre-season expectations, and they failed to meet pretty much all of them. and now they're right back in the cotton bowl. i can't imagine their enthusiasm and preperation will be anywhere near the level of last year's game.

oklahoma st has already shown they can beat an sec team this year, beating georgia in the opener. and they did it not by throwing the ball all over the field, but by grinding it out (172 yds on 46 carries) and playing defense. after georgia scored on the opening possession, they were held to 3 points the rest of the game.

i like the cowboys to bounce back from the blowout to oklahoma and win this game.

 

[Smitty]

Alamo Bowl

Alamo Bowl

michigan st (+7.5) 1 unit. this one came down to one thing for me... who was starting at qb for tt. last week, potts was named the starter (i hope that hasn't changed, with the mess going on there), so i'm playing michigan st. if sheffield was starting, i would have played tt.
teams can play well after some starters have been suspended. but i gotta figure the mike leach situation has caused a lot of disruption for texas tech. maybe they all loved him or all hated him. but it's more likely that locker room is divided now.

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

hit a bit of a wall lately... actually slightly in the red now. not cool.

boise (+7) 1 unit. this line is much higher than i expected. but based on the number of people on tcu, i'd say it's 'legit'. a couple factors tell me boise is the play tonight.

tcu was disappointed with this matchup. every little edge you take off that defense will help boise.

boise is, apparently, very underrated. i don't think they are as good as tcu this year, but it's a lot closer than people are making it out to be.

what people always forget about boise... they play some defense.

much has been made of boise's 'weak' schedule. well, here is the total defensive rank of tcu's opponents... 53, 20, 84, 11, 78, 29, 115, 74, 19, 81, & 101. clemson is #20, and tcu beat them 14-10. air force is #11, and tcu beat them 20-17. utah is #19, but i'm dismissing that game with cause. well, here comes boise, with their #14th ranked defense. the two teams that i'm focusing on, tcu beat in close, low-scoring games. they rang up the vast majority of their points against weak defenses. i'm not saying the turn-around for tcu's offense hasn't been impressive, i'm just saying it may not be as impressive as it first appears.

tcu spoiled boise's perfect season last year. gotta believe boise would like a shot at payback.

i was wrong last year in this matchup, when i took tcu, so wtf do i know?

under (54) 2 units. pretty much the same reasons as above. this should be a close, low-scoring game. and boise's defense is underrated.

 

[AR182]

smitty....

i'm pretty sure but i could be wrong that the clemson & air force games were played in bad weather....

 

[Smitty]

al, thanks, you may be right. the air force game was played in some icy, windy conditions (wind is really the only weather condition i use when handicapping) and maybe the rain in the clemson game was worst than i remember. for me, this really comes down to boise's defense being better than anybody gives it credit for. has been for a few years now. that said, watch, tcu will blow 'em out. wouldn't be the first time i was wrong.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Sorry . . . wrong thread

 

[Smitty]

Orange Bowl

Orange Bowl

georgia tech (-5.5) 2 units. really, really, really liking the yellow jackets tonight. so much talk about iowa this, iowa that.... look, i respect the hell out of ferentz and the job he's done there. no doubt those kids will play hard tonight, even if they're a little disappointed they didn't play in the rose bowl. and this is a great matchup for iowa. they are good against the run blah blah blah. sure, they've had time to prepare for the option. but you know what? no way can you simulate in practice the precision with which georgia tech runs the option. and stanzi makes his return tonight. people conveniently forget he was leading the country in interceptions thrown, or was close to it, when he was hurt.

all the talk about ferentz, and he's a great coach, but people are forgetting about the guy on the other sideline... paul johnson is pretty damn good.

my biggest concern is nesbitt's habit of making a bad pitch and putting the ball on the ground. but i think that is outweighed by stanzi's habit of throwing interceptions.

don't forget.... this is the same iowa team that needed two blocked field goals to beat northern iowa at home... beat arkansas state at home by 3... and should have lost at home to indiana. they really are not very good.

 

[bej0101]

gl with gt tonite:director:

 

[Smitty]

GMAC Bowl

GMAC Bowl

troy (+2) 2 units. you know, i really like what central michigan has done the last few years. lefavour has had an unbelievable career. but i simply cannot back a mac team at this point. after a few very good years, this conference has fallen hard and fast. my instinct tells me they should win this game, but my money has to go on troy. i'd expect a shootout, but central mich tends to start very slowly offensively. a first half under is probably a solid play.

 

[Smitty]

NC Game

NC Game

got screwed with bad timing again on last night's game. the spread shouldn't have mattered though... troy had that game almost the entire way. so now i'm dead even going into the national championship game. not exactly what i was hoping for.

texas (+4) 1 unit. for weeks, i've been loving texas in this game. no, not because i think they're any good (they're not; tcu would beat the longhorns 7 or 8 out of 10 times). more because i don't think alabama is really that good either. they have a solid defense with a very pedestrian, vanilla offense. it's been good enough to stay undefeated in the best conference in college football though, so you have to give them credit for that. nebraska matched up perfectly with texas and showed just how awesome colt mccoy really is. but this is a different matchup against a different defense. i expect texas to have some success on offense, and that will put pressure on alabama's defense. also, if there was ever a time a team would be 'emotionally unprepared' for the national championship game, this would be it. 'bama is coming off a come-from-behind win over auburn (interesting side note - i asked a lifelong alabama fan if he'd rather beat auburn or win the national championship. he could not answer the question. shows how big that auburn game still is.) and a huge revenge win over florida. they have to feel like they've already won the national championship.
the reason i lowered it to one unit? looks like everyone and their grandmother has forgotten how awful texas looked in the big 12 championship game. they're all jumping on this mediocre texas team tonight. that just can't be good.

under (45.5) 2 units. i think this is the better play. neither offense is really all that good. 'bama has a solid defense (although something tells me texas will have a lot more success in the short passing game than they did against nebraska), and texas' defense... well, they don't need to be all that good to slow down 'bama.

well, madjackers, that's the end of another season of college football. wow. play me off, ghost violinist... :violin: