Unbeatens Collide in Desert Dual
What is great about Monday night?s Fiesta Bowl is that it makes for fascinating debate. Starting with the winner will be just one of two unbeaten teams in the country when the season is completed Thursday evening, and will likely end up rated second or third in the country, depending on several factors. If one team is dominant in Glendale, AZ they can raise the discussion point wondering how they might have done against Florida or either of the two participants in the BCS championship contest.
In reading, studying and breaking the two teams down, two elements arise, one for each team. TCU is the better team, period. Think about this for a second, if Cincinnati doesn?t execute last minute touchdown drive against Pittsburgh and if the Texas kicker hits the ball one yard further to the left, the Horned Frogs are playing Alabama in a few days.
How good has TCU (12-0, 8-3 ATS) been, they won in Death Valley at Clemson, who almost made Orange Bowl trip and went to BYU and kicked some Cougar tail 38-7, who in turn blitzed Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl. TCU?s resume is further enhanced by the fact they beat all five bowl participants they played (4-1 ATS) and those same five squads each won their bowl matchup.
Coach Gary Patterson?s team outscored last seven opponents by average of 47-10 and off their 51-10 nailing of New Mexico in late November, are 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Here?s the rub, they played Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, beating them 17-16 as three-point favorites, though dominated them in yardage 472-250. Most player quotes coming out of Fort Worth are similar to this, ?Yes we are excited to be playing in BCS game against Boise State who is a very good team??.BUT we really would have liked to see how we would matchup against Florida or one of other BCS conferences teams?.
This does not signify that TCU won?t play an outstanding game, but you have to wonder at least a little about a club that is a seven-point favorite, facing a team in revenge mode, who feels they could be overlooked by opponent.
What does Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) have to do to get beyond cute cousin status? Do they need to roll up the Smurf turf and maybe go to black turf instead and maybe change uniforms to more menacing colors to get street cred? What about quarterback Kellen Moore, who has 39 touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 65 percent throwing accuracy, having the nickname ?The Assassin.
Alas, Boise isn?t Miami, so no documentary about how this program arose from essentially nothing to a consistent Top 15 performer this past decade. Coach Chris Peterson looks more like the local high school track coach, not somebody who runs one of the top football programs in the country and lacks the Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly mentality to win for the next better job.
Peterson may look gentlemanly, but coaches like him have the fire burning and the Broncos are 25-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games. Under Peterson, this is Boise State?s third unblemished regular season in the last four years and the school?s fourth in the last six. They won a memorable game three years ago in same location over Oklahoma and the only team to stifle the Oregon Ducks offense as much as Ohio State did in the Rose Bowl was the Broncos in the first game of the year. They held the Ducks to 152 total yards.
Sportsbook.com sees this as a more offensive affair then a year ago, with the total at 53.5 compared to last year?s 46 points in San Diego contest. We?ll keep with our Monday night theme. We?ll provide reasons why either team should cover. In the Fiesta Bowl, when the line is 5.5 or higher, the underdog has emerged the spread winner seven of last nine. In regards to the total, when the number is 51 or higher, the results have been 6-2 UNDER in most recent matchups.
Boise State covers if they can match TCU?s physicality. The offensive line is going to have to provide occasional creases against rugged Horned Frogs front for RB?s Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. The Broncos only allowed five sacks all season, they are bound to give up a few to DE Jerry Hughes and others from aggressive TCU defense, hopefully they can minimize the damage and Moore can find targets quickly as he has all season. That is why first and second down will be so important for Boise State, trying to stay out of third and longs. The Broncos cannot allow TCU ground game to churn, they must shed blocks and fill gaps, something they did struggle with at different times against better rushing teams. The Broncos are 24-6 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 425 yards a game and have revenge and possible disrespect card to play.
TCU covers if they come to make a statement. Though it is not always easy to tell against a variety of substandard competition, Coach Patterson?s team appears capable of beating ANY team in the country on a given day. If TCU plays with the same purpose they have all season and doesn?t have fascinations about Gators, Longhorns or a team from Tuscaloosa, they win by at least 10 points. Coach Patterson?s crew has speed edge and can be disrupt any offensive. QB Andy Dalton matured into an accurate thrower as a senior (22 touchdowns and five interceptions) and truly does have a stable of running backs to run behind a punishing offensive line that could wear down Boise State. It?s not an accident the Frogs are 13-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in consecutive games.
Bowl System ? Play Under in any bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier non-BCS conferences. (38-14, ATS L10Y)
What is great about Monday night?s Fiesta Bowl is that it makes for fascinating debate. Starting with the winner will be just one of two unbeaten teams in the country when the season is completed Thursday evening, and will likely end up rated second or third in the country, depending on several factors. If one team is dominant in Glendale, AZ they can raise the discussion point wondering how they might have done against Florida or either of the two participants in the BCS championship contest.
In reading, studying and breaking the two teams down, two elements arise, one for each team. TCU is the better team, period. Think about this for a second, if Cincinnati doesn?t execute last minute touchdown drive against Pittsburgh and if the Texas kicker hits the ball one yard further to the left, the Horned Frogs are playing Alabama in a few days.
How good has TCU (12-0, 8-3 ATS) been, they won in Death Valley at Clemson, who almost made Orange Bowl trip and went to BYU and kicked some Cougar tail 38-7, who in turn blitzed Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl. TCU?s resume is further enhanced by the fact they beat all five bowl participants they played (4-1 ATS) and those same five squads each won their bowl matchup.
Coach Gary Patterson?s team outscored last seven opponents by average of 47-10 and off their 51-10 nailing of New Mexico in late November, are 9-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Here?s the rub, they played Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last year, beating them 17-16 as three-point favorites, though dominated them in yardage 472-250. Most player quotes coming out of Fort Worth are similar to this, ?Yes we are excited to be playing in BCS game against Boise State who is a very good team??.BUT we really would have liked to see how we would matchup against Florida or one of other BCS conferences teams?.
This does not signify that TCU won?t play an outstanding game, but you have to wonder at least a little about a club that is a seven-point favorite, facing a team in revenge mode, who feels they could be overlooked by opponent.
What does Boise State (13-0, 8-4 ATS) have to do to get beyond cute cousin status? Do they need to roll up the Smurf turf and maybe go to black turf instead and maybe change uniforms to more menacing colors to get street cred? What about quarterback Kellen Moore, who has 39 touchdowns and three interceptions, along with 65 percent throwing accuracy, having the nickname ?The Assassin.
Alas, Boise isn?t Miami, so no documentary about how this program arose from essentially nothing to a consistent Top 15 performer this past decade. Coach Chris Peterson looks more like the local high school track coach, not somebody who runs one of the top football programs in the country and lacks the Bobby Petrino and Brian Kelly mentality to win for the next better job.
Peterson may look gentlemanly, but coaches like him have the fire burning and the Broncos are 25-8 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in five straight games. Under Peterson, this is Boise State?s third unblemished regular season in the last four years and the school?s fourth in the last six. They won a memorable game three years ago in same location over Oklahoma and the only team to stifle the Oregon Ducks offense as much as Ohio State did in the Rose Bowl was the Broncos in the first game of the year. They held the Ducks to 152 total yards.
Sportsbook.com sees this as a more offensive affair then a year ago, with the total at 53.5 compared to last year?s 46 points in San Diego contest. We?ll keep with our Monday night theme. We?ll provide reasons why either team should cover. In the Fiesta Bowl, when the line is 5.5 or higher, the underdog has emerged the spread winner seven of last nine. In regards to the total, when the number is 51 or higher, the results have been 6-2 UNDER in most recent matchups.
Boise State covers if they can match TCU?s physicality. The offensive line is going to have to provide occasional creases against rugged Horned Frogs front for RB?s Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. The Broncos only allowed five sacks all season, they are bound to give up a few to DE Jerry Hughes and others from aggressive TCU defense, hopefully they can minimize the damage and Moore can find targets quickly as he has all season. That is why first and second down will be so important for Boise State, trying to stay out of third and longs. The Broncos cannot allow TCU ground game to churn, they must shed blocks and fill gaps, something they did struggle with at different times against better rushing teams. The Broncos are 24-6 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 425 yards a game and have revenge and possible disrespect card to play.
TCU covers if they come to make a statement. Though it is not always easy to tell against a variety of substandard competition, Coach Patterson?s team appears capable of beating ANY team in the country on a given day. If TCU plays with the same purpose they have all season and doesn?t have fascinations about Gators, Longhorns or a team from Tuscaloosa, they win by at least 10 points. Coach Patterson?s crew has speed edge and can be disrupt any offensive. QB Andy Dalton matured into an accurate thrower as a senior (22 touchdowns and five interceptions) and truly does have a stable of running backs to run behind a punishing offensive line that could wear down Boise State. It?s not an accident the Frogs are 13-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in consecutive games.
Bowl System ? Play Under in any bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier non-BCS conferences. (38-14, ATS L10Y)
