Wednesday NBA Tips

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Wednesday NBA Tips


The Wednesday NBA card is filled to the brim with 11 games, including intriguing matchups in the later tip-offs. The Lakers play the second end of a back-to-back in Dallas, while the Magic continues a four-game road trip in Denver against the Nuggets.

Lakers at Mavs - 8:35 PM EST

Los Angeles and Dallas meet up for the third time this season after the two teams split the first two meetings at Staples Center. The Lakers will be playing with no rest after Tuesday's 20-point setback at San Antonio, while the Mavs have been off since Saturday's 18-point loss to the Jazz.

Dallas has struggled mightily at home against the number recently, going 1-12 ATS the last 13 at American Airlines Center. The Mavs blew out the Lakers, 94-80, in late October, easily cashing as 7 ?-point road underdogs. L.A. got revenge on Dallas on January 3, destroying the Mavs, 131-96 as 6 ?-point 'chalk.'

The Lakers have played each of the last five games without power forward Pau Gasol, who is nursing a hamstring injury. His status for Wednesday is 'questionable,' as the Lakers are 3-7 ATS the last ten on the road. Los Angeles is 0-7 ATS this season on the road against teams above .500, while going 2-5 SU. Both Josh Howard and Drew Gooden missed Saturday's defeat to Utah, as each player will be a game-time decision for Dallas.

Magic at Nuggets - 9:05 PM EST

Orlando will have a tough stretch upcoming on its four-game trip, battling the Nuggets, Blazers, and Lakers over the next few nights. Denver is slowly returning to health after Carmelo Anthony came back to the lineup for Monday's victory over Minnesota. Anthony missed the previous five games with a knee ailment (2-2-1 ATS), as the Nuggets won and covered both times as an underdog against the Jazz and Cavs.


The Magic has struggled away from Amway Arena lately, going 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven on the road, including losses to the Pacers, Bulls, Wizards, and Heat in this stretch. Orlando is 2-1 ATS as a road 'dog, and 13-4 ATS in the regular season when getting points on the road since November 2008.

The Nuggets are just 4-12-1 ATS over the last 17 games, including a 2-11 ATS mark as a favorite. Denver is 3-6 ATS at the Pepsi Center after starting the season 7-3 ATS at home. George Karl's team has covered four of the last five home meetings with the Magic, but Orlando drubbed Denver last January, 106-88.

What else to watch for:

-- The Spurs and Thunder get together at the Ford Center for an intriguing battle between two teams separated by one victory. Oklahoma City has been solid at home this season, but is just 2-4 ATS as a home 'dog. The Thunder upended the Spurs in San Antonio, 101-98 as 8 ?-point 'dogs in mid-November, the fourth cover in the last five meetings for OKC. The Spurs are 2-4 SU/ATS with no rest this season, while going 'under' the total all six times.

-- Two of the hotter teams outside the Western Conference playoff picture meet up in New Orleans when the Hornets host the Clippers. Chris Paul and the Hornets have won six of seven, while going 5-2 ATS in this stretch. However, New Orleans is 14-3 SU at home with all 14 wins by nine points or less. The Clippers, meanwhile, have covered seven straight games following Tuesday's two-point loss as six-point 'dogs at Memphis.

-- The Bucks and Blazers take the court for a 10:00 EST tip at the Rose Garden, as Milwaukee goes for its first win on a six-game road trip. The Bucks dropped the first two games at the Lakers and Suns, as the team lost sharpshooter Michael Redd for the season with a torn ACL and MCL in his knee. Milwaukee has hit the 'under' in four straight games, while Portland is riding a four-game 'over' streak. The Blazers are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS over the last seven games, as Portland tries to avenge an overtime loss at the Bradley Center in mid-December.

-- The Heat tries to bounce back after dropping consecutive games to the Clippers and Jazz when Miami travels to the Bay Area to battle the Warriors. Golden State couldn't buy a cover leading up to Christmas, but the Warriors have been money in the bank recently, cashing eight of their last nine games. Don Nelson's team is protecting its home court, going 4-0 ATS the last four at Oracle Arena, with covers against the Celtics, Suns, and Cavs. The Heat is 2-6 ATS the last eight, while failing to break 100 points six times in this stretch.
 

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Trend Report - Wednesday

Trend Report - Wednesday

Trend Report - Wednesday


Wizards at Hawks ? The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since November 20, 1999 at home with at most one day of rest after a road win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since December 12, 1995 at home with at most one day of rest off a win as a dog in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters.

Clippers at Hornets ? The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since February 09, 2009 as a dog after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Hornets are 11-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since April 10, 2007 versus the Clippers.

Lakers at Mavericks ? The Lakers are 10-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since March 23, 2007 as a dog when playing the second of back-to-back road games. The Lakers are 7-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since November 14, 1995 as a road dog after a double digit loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since November 13, 2004 as a road dog with no rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

Celtics at Nets ? The Nets are 0-9 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since February 25, 2005 at home after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.


Magic at Nuggets ? The Magic are 12-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since November 28, 2005 on the road after a game in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS (5.3 ppg) since November 19, 2001 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they attempted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average.

Suns at Pacers ? The Suns are 10-0 ATS (4.8 ppg) since March 28, 2005 as a favorite with at most one day of rest off a win of four points or fewer as a favorite in which they held a double digit lead. The Suns are 0-9 ATS (-14.9 ppg) since December 15, 2007 on the road after a win in which Steve Nash was the Suns' high scorer. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since March 22, 2003 off a home win in which they trailed by double digits at the half.

Timberwolves at Rockets ?The Rockets are 10-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since January 29, 2008 as a favorite after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Rockets are 8-0-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) since February 05, 2007 versus the Timberwolves.

Knicks at Sixers ? The Knicks are 8-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 10, 2003 when playing the third game of a three-game road trip after losing the first two. The Knicks are 7-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since February 25, 2003 after a road loss in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. The Sixers are 0-6-1 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since February 02, 2005 at home after a game at home in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The 76ers are 6-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since February 01, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which their leading scrorer for that game had fewer than 20 points.

Spurs at Thunder ? The Spurs are 0-11 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 28, 2003 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Spurs are 0-10 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since March 31, 2009 after losing the previous matchup in which Roger Mason took fewer than 10 shots. The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since December 01, 2005 after a win against the Lakers.

Bucks at Trailblazers ? The Trailblazers are 0-10 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since January 02, 2002 as a home favorite after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The League is 8-0-1 ATS (9.2 ppg) since November 25, 2004 with two or more days of rest after a double digit home loss in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

Heat at Warriors ? The Heat are 7-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 14, 2002 after a double digit road loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Warriors are 7-0-1 ATS (6.4 ppg) since March 11, 2003 at home with at least one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer as a dog in which they trailed by double digits.
 

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Today's NBA Picks

Today's NBA Picks

Today's NBA Picks
Phoenix at Indiana
The Suns look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points. Phoenix is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Suns favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 13
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 701-702: New York at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.612; Philadelphia 119.581
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 211
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 114.894; Atlanta 120.770
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 11; 205
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+11); Under
Game 705-706: Phoenix at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.806; Indiana 113.105
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 227
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 226 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2); Over
Game 707-708: Boston at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.161; New Jersey 113.553
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 4 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 709-710: LA Clippers at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 116.561; New Orleans 122.944
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-5 1/2); Over
Game 711-712: San Antonio at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.001; Oklahoma City 124.339
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-1); Over
Game 713-714: Minnesota at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.980; Houston 119.854
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 9; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 10; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+10); Under
Game 715-716: LA Lakers at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 118.492; Dallas 124.643
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6; 192
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 717-718: Orlando at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 116.249; Denver 123.669
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 719-720: Milwaukee at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 115.635; Portland 117.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+6); Over
Game 721-722: Miami at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 115.519; Golden State 119.256
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 3 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Wednesday's best NBA bets

Wednesday's best NBA bets

Wednesday's best NBA bets


Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers (+3.5, 226.5)

Consistently backing the Suns is as reckless as dating ex-convicts. Phoenix is just 2-3 against the spread since beating the Lakers and Celtics at the end of December.

Turnovers have and always will be the Suns? biggest flaw as long as Steve Nash is running the show. While the pace-pushing sparkplug gets his teammates great looks, he can be too careless with the ball.

"I still think we turn it over too much for what we're doing," Suns coach Alvin Gentry told the Arizona Republic. "We should be getting a shot every possession. We turn the ball over 18-20 times.

?Realistically, we should be a 12-turnover team. The way I look at it is that's eight shots we don't get at the basket. If we're the leading field-goal-shooting team in the league, then that's four makes we don't get, so we're basically taking away eight points."

Look for the Pacers to cash in on the turnover margin and get some easy baskets in transition.

Pick: Pacers

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors (N/A)

Who says you need to have depth to be successful in the Association? The Warriors seem to play their best ball when they?re down to eight warm bodies.

Golden State has covered the number in eight of its last night games despite injuries to Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph and a slow recovery from Andris Biedrins.

Steady offensive production from Monta Ellis, rookie Stephen Curry and veteran wing Corey Maggette is all coach Don Nelson needs to stay competitive ? that and of course home court.

The Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Pick: Warriors
 

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Road woes continue for a number of NBA teams

Road woes continue for a number of NBA teams

Road woes continue for a number of NBA teams

Joel Huerto is the editor and publisher of OneManFastBreak.net and was a news editor with the Los Angeles Times.

The road has been a long and treacherous path for a number of teams so far this season. Twenty-two of 30 teams in the Association are getting spanked more often than a 3 year old whenever they stray too far from their respective cribs.

Entering Wednesday's games, only the Cavaliers, Celtics, Magic and Hawks in the East and the Mavericks, Lakers, Thunder and Blazers out West have a .500 or better record on the road. The rest of the league has been struggling whenever they book flights out of town, and that includes potential playoff teams such as the Spurs, Nuggets and Suns.

San Antonio, Denver and Phoenix are all 10 games above .500 straight up, but all three have benefited from superlative home records. The Spurs are 17-6 at the AT&T Center but only 6-7 away from their home barn. The Nuggets, one of four teams with just three home losses, are 16-3 in the Mile High city but only 8-11 when they play at sea level. The Suns are a sizzling 15-4 at US Airways Arena but just 9-10 away from the desert.

The Bobcats and Hornets are two prime examples of feast-or-famine ballclubs. The Bobcats are 14-4 at home but an anemic 3-15 on the road. The Hornets are 14-3 in New Orleans but just 5-14 on the road.

If you think those are bad, try the Central Division in the East.

The Cavaliers are the only Central Division team with a winning road record and their 16 road wins are two better than the rest of the division. The Bulls, Bucks, Pacers and Pistons are a combined 14-58 on the road.

And, of the 16 teams that qualified for the playoffs last season, only seven teams had winning records away from home, so the road woes are not reserved for just this season.

"Bad teams on the road is nothing new for the NBA," says Richard Gardner, sportsbook manager of Bodog.com. "Home-floor advantage has always been very real, although in the last few years it has been growing."

According to Gardner, the winning percentages of the home team the past four seasons have been 62.1, 60.8, 60 and 59.1.

"It will be interesting to see if this season ends up closer to the 60 [percent] that seems to be the standard or if this is a continuation of a trend to better home winning percentages."

Gardner reasoned that part of the trend might be attributed to the fact that teams are getting younger and usually a lack of experience translates to poor execution in hostile environments.

But one team that kind of debunks this theory is the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder has a roster loaded with first-, second- and third-year players, but somehow this neophyte team is 12-6 away from Oklahoma City.

"The bigger reason," Gardner says, "could be the amount of travel teams have to endure during the course of a season. Because there are more teams now than in previous eras, there are more back-to-back games on the road, which is extremely taxing on the teams on long trips and doesnt leave enough time to scout or prepare for opponents."

Gardner said oddmakers normally give home teams a 6-point edge when the lines are set, but sportsbook managers also factor in the matchups.

"With really good home teams against really poor away teams, we may make a slight adjustment, but these are more on a case-by-case basis where we have already seen where bettors are going to bet in a certain direction," he said.

TWO POINTS

BOOM SIZZLE: I ripped Baron Davis a few months ago for looking out of shape and disinterested. I spoke too soon. The Baron of the Hardwood is back and he's playing like a Golden State Warrior. B-Diddy is averaging 19.6 points and 10.4 assists in his last five games, including an eye-popping 27-12-12 stat line against Memphis on Tuesday, and is the main reason the Clip Show is 7-0 ATS of late, a streak that started on Dec. 27 with a 92-90 victory over the Celtics.

BUZZ IN NEW ORLEANS: The Hornets are not completely back yet but they are beginning to make some noise in the Southwest Division. New Orleans has won seven of its last 10 straight up and is 4-2 ATS in January. The Hornets have also won six of their last seven games straight up and they are doing it with defense. The under has played out seven times in the Hornets' last 10 games.
 

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Heat?s Wade has wrist examined, uncertain vs. Warriors

Heat?s Wade has wrist examined, uncertain vs. Warriors

Heat?s Wade has wrist examined, uncertain vs. Warriors

Miami Heat superstar guard Dwyane Wade will have his injured wrist re-examined Tuesday, the Miami Herald reported.

Wade sprained his right wrist in Monday's loss at Utah, colliding with Jazz guard Sundiata Gaines and going down hard in the first quarter.

Wade left the game but returned midway through the second quarter. He played 29 minutes and scored a season-low 13 points in the 118-89 defeat.

There has been no line set for the Heat?s road game versus the Warriors on Wednesday due to the uncertainty of Wade?s playing status.

Wade has yet to miss a game this season and ranks fifth in the NBA in scoring, averaging 26.6 points per game. Miami sits 6.5 games back of Orlando in the Southeast Division with an 18-18 record and are 17-19 ATS this season.
 
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