The Colts and the Ravens are like oil and water. One is led by a quarterback who already has a gold sportcoat in his closet, and the other has a quarterback that completed four passes in a victory last week. One is famed for a blitz-heavy 3-4 defense led by an elite linebacker, and the other won a title with their 4-3 scheme that rarely blitzes and views most linebackers as replaceable talent. One has an elite safety that rarely comes off the field, the other has an elite safety that rarely gets on it. There's even collegiate battles reborn: Tennessee vs. Miami! Maryland vs. Miami! Miami vs. Miami! Rutgers vs ... Mount Union? Well, they all can't be glamour matchups.
Those clashing identities came out in Week 11, a frustrating football game played to a near-draw. The Ravens bookended their turns to touch the football with fumbles, starting with a Lardarius Webb kickoff return that was fumbled a fraction of a second after Webb hit the ground, and ending with the Ed Reed Special: An ill-advised lateral on a punt return with 20 seconds left, resulting in a fumble that was recovered by the Colts to seal a 17-15 victory. Inbetween, they kicked five field goals, missed a sixth, and were stuffed on three consecutive plays inside the two-yard line.
The Colts made their own mistakes. Peyton Manning threw two interceptions on two very questionable decisions, and while seldom-used tight end Tom Santi had a breakout game with six catches and several great blocks on the edge, his fumble inside the five cost the Colts a touchdown. False starts went uncalled. ACLs were torn. Ribs were broken. It was the sort of old-school game that the participants would smile about but wouldn't hold up on second viewing, and worst of all, Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf were calling it.
This Saturday's rematch should be very similar, although some of the faces for Baltimore will be different. The venue shifts from Baltimore to Indy, and while the Ravens won't be making the trek on Mayflower trucks, the Colts should be better on their home turf than they are on the road. (That's "should" and not "will" because Indianapolis's offensive DVOA is 13th at home and leads the league on the road, and their defense is 15th in either spot.) Expect big plays and compelling back-and-forth football, but if you're looking to pick a winner, expect it to come down to the play of two Ravens players.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
Before reading this section, check out the excellent Cover-3 penned by Doug Farrar this week, with details on why the Ravens struggled in short yardage and only ended up with 15 points.
There's no subtle player that makes the Ravens go; their offense is built around Ray Rice, who repeated last year's Matt Forte trick of leading his team in both carries and receptions. Furthermore, Rice was targeted on a league-high 101 passes, 21 more than any other running back. Stopping Rice has to be the Colts' biggest concern on defense, even before getting pressure on Joe Flacco.
Although the Patriots didn't do many things right last week, one thing they did do well was shut down Rice as a receiver. Rice was held without a catch for the first time this season, although it admittedly came on only ten pass attempts from Flacco. That was thanks to bracket coverage on Rice coming out of the backfield, with a linebacker assigned to shadow him on every play and a defensive back preventing him from getting outside.
The Colts will have to account for Rice in a similar manner. Rice had seven catches for 64 yards against them in Week 11, including three first downs. Rice was often used in a swing role as a blocker/dumpoff receiver, releasing into the hashmarks after no rusher had occupied him. Although he's not the primary receiver on most plays, he's often Flacco's second look and open frequently enough to justify his target patterns.
Flacco can rely on Rice too much, though, which led to a game-changing interception in the fourth quarter of the first game. With the Ravens down two and 2:49 left in the game, they faced a third-and-7 from the Colts 14-yard line. They lined up in a three-wide receiver set, with Kelley Washington in the slot and Todd Heap at tight end. The Colts crowded the A-gaps with linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session, threatening a double A-gap blitz. At the snap, all six rushers came forward, with the Ravens sending all four receivers out into routes. Instead of staying in to block, Rice immediately went to the hashmarks to serve as the hot route.
On Flacco's second step backwards, the blitz disappeared off radar. Three of the six rushers -- the two linebackers and defensive end Robert Mathis -- stopped rushing and started dropping back into the center of the field, waiting for Rice. Flacco finished his drop, surveyed the field, and then threw his checkdown to Rice, who was triple-covered by the three disappearing blitzers. Brackett picked the pass off, and the Ravens' chance to take the lead evaporated. Considering the situation and the coverage, it was probably the worst pass Joe Flacco's thrown as a professional.
(Interestingly, left tackle Jared Gaither flinched twice before the snap, but his false start went uncalled, evoking the delayed false start call against the Titans in the Tennessee-Baltimore regular season game from 2008 that yielded a non-offsetting roughing the passer call on Terrell Suggs. Much like that game, you can trace the Ravens' loss to this one missed call.)
Indianapolis's blitz schemes remain firmly in the transitional phase, though. After firmly adhering to Tony Dungy's Tampa-2 scheme and building their defense around capably getting to the quarterback with their front four, new head coach Jim Caldwell turned up the dial on more blitzes this year. Outside of the Ravens game, Indy rushed five or more defenders on 25 percent of charted pass plays, a step up from their 16 percent rate of a year ago. Against the Ravens, though, their blitz disappeared; they sent five or more rushers on only five of Flacco's 34 dropbacks, sending exactly four rushers 27 times. Their five blitzes yielded three first downs, including a 45-yard bomb to Derrick Mason thrown out of the Ravens' end zone that ended in a simultaneous possession by Mason and Jerraud Powers. Only two of the five Colts' blitzes yielded hurries, and they all came on either second- or third-and-long; they've gotten pressure on their blitzes against teams besides the Ravens 32 percent of the time (against a league average of 28 percent), and only 21 percent of their blitzes have come on first down.
One difference between the Ravens' offense that shows up on Sunday and the one that was up against the Colts in November may be Flacco's hip. Many of Flacco's throws against the Colts were to the sidelines; virtually all of his passes that weren't dumpoffs to Rice were out patterns of various distances. Flacco clearly had troubles with his hip against the Patriots on Sunday, and if Flacco has mechanical issues and can't get any zip on his ball, Baltimore will have serious issues in the passing game. Gaither and fellow tackle Michael Oher had excellent days against Mathis and Dwight Freeney, holding the pair without a sack. They did combine for five hurries, though, so expect the Colts' star ends to get to Flacco just by the law of averages at one point or another. Freeney had his best success getting underneath the the mammoth Gaither at the line of scrimmage and driving him backwards into Flacco; it's hard for him to resist the urge to run around tackles, but the Colts would be better off for it.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
It's horrible to think that a human being might be defined by his or her failures. And yet, Custer's the guy who got taken out at Little Big Horn, Pete Best wasn't good enough to drum for the Beatles, and Roc Alexander will forever be remembered as Peyton Manning's plaything from one disastrous game in the 2004 AFC playoffs.
Alexander might soon have company. Enter one Frank Walker.
An argument against both the validity of game charting numbers and Ozzie Newsome's personnel skills, Walker is one of the worst cornerbacks in football. When he does make his way onto the field, teams go out of their way to target him, even though the average Domonique Foxworth resides on the other side. When he's not losing receivers in coverage, Walker's also a magnet for penalties. He's DeAngelo Hall without the speed or the ball skills, Shawn Springs without the great instincts, or Nnamdi Asomugha without the anything. And he's starting at corner for the Ravens this weekend.
Walker's not supposed to be a starting cornerback, but will be forced into action thanks to injuries. Struggling starter Fabian Washington tore his ACL in the fourth quarter of the Week 11 matchup between these two teams, and rookie Lardarius Webb tore an ACL of his own in Week 15 against Chicago. Undersized Chris Carr is next on the depth chart, but he's an effective slot corner that's too small to play on the outside. Retread Corey Ivy matches Carr's skill set, and rookie Cary Williams is strictly a special teams player and corner of last resort. That places Walker on the outside, likely against Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie on most plays. Manning might also exploit Walker indirectly; if the Ravens have to give Walker additional safety help on most plays, their blitz packages will be limited, and opportunities will open up on the other side of the field for Reggie Wayne against Foxworth in one-on-one coverage.
In the first game, the Ravens did a good job of taking away Dallas Clark with the same sort of bracket coverage that they placed on Wes Welker in their matchup with the Patriots, but they left opportunities downfield for Manning to exploit.
The Colts' biggest play of the day came in the first quarter, when Manning took advantage of the Ravens' aggressiveness to pick up 66 yards on one pass to Reggie Wayne. The Colts lined up with twin wide receivers on one side, while the Ravens showed man coverage against both of them. On the snap, Lardarius Webb, who was in man coverage in the slot, blitzed. With Webb onrushing, Manning froze three players with one pump fake, including Webb, who lept in the ear to try and knock the pass down. Foxworth -- who was actually in zone coverage on the side of the field with the twin receivers and was standing next to Wayne at the time of the pump fake -- didn't pursue Wayne's go route, and while Ed Reed was supposed to be providing safety support over the top, the pump fake got Reed rushing towards the slot receiver. That left Reggie Wayne, elite receiver, wide open streaking downfield.
On the other hand, Manning also got himself in trouble throwing downfield, with two interceptions that weren't impressive. On the first, Manning tried to fit a ball to Clark into a tight window against a Cover-2, and Washington was able to get back quickly enough to break up the pass and bat it into the air, leaving an easy pick for Dawan Landry. The second throw was virtually the exact same play as Manning's long completion to Wayne, with a pump fake attempting to get Reed and Foxworth off of Wayne and failing. Foxworth stuck with Wayne deep, and Reed undercut the pass to pick it off. That pass went 34 yards in the air; the long completion went 33.
Faced with elite opposition, both these teams flinch stylistically. The Colts spent most of their time during the regular season encounter between these two teams in a two-tight end set, with two wide receivers split to one side of the field or the other. The goal there is to combine formations with motion before the snap to make reading the Ravens' coverage before the snap an easier process. In response, a Ravens defender will occasionally sprint towards the line of scrimmage and feign like they've been caught in a forthcoming blitz by Manning before the snap, only to not rush once the ball's been snapped. It's a fascinating game of cat-and-mouse, even before the ball's out of Jeff Saturday's hand.
Baltimore will spend most of their time against this base offense in a 4-2-5 set, with Carr as the nickelback in the slot when the Colts go with twin wide receivers on one side. The Ravens did not have Terrell Suggs in Week 11, so Jarret Johnson lined up with his hand in the dirt on the line; expect Suggs to play that role this week, and give hobbled left tackle Charlie Johnson more trouble than Jarret Johnson did. When the Colts split out Clark, the Ravens move back into a 3-3-5 and line up Carr directly over Clark, giving him help from the extra linebacker.
One player who had an unexpectedly big game when these two teams met was tight end Tom Santi, who played a key role throughout the day. His six catches for 80 yards came despite his failing to catch a pass in 2009 before the game while only catching two passes for 27 yards afterwards. It was a role dictated by matchups; Santi was being left uncovered and finding holes in the Ravens' zones, with Baltimore too busy focusing on Wayne, Clark, Garcon, and Collie. That all came crashing down, though, when Santi caught a quick out at the five-yard line, turned upfield and ran for the endzone?and got waylaid by Reed and then Lewis, fumbling the ball away in the process. Back to the L.E.S for you, young man.
Santi was also a key contributor in the running game, which had a good day against the Ravens. The Colts' success rate against the Ravens was right above 42 percent (league average against Baltimore: 36 percent), and Santi was mostly effective sealing the edge against Johnson and even Trevor Pryce, allowing the Colts to pull an offensive lineman to the outside or get them to block the Ravens' linebackers at the second level. Also worth noting is that, besides Suggs' absence, Haloti Ngata was returning from an ankle injury and not at 100 percent, while Ray Lewis hurt his ankle during the game and was hobbled for most of the first half. Ngata played well, but took a stupid late hit penalty that turned a second-and-long into a first down for the Colts.
One interesting statistical note: Although it seems entirely counterintuitive, the Colts are actually the better short-yardage team of these two this year. Indianapolis was 12th running the ball in power situations and sixth against them, while Baltimore was ninth offensively and 11th when defending them. The Colts shut down the Ravens on three carries inside the two, holding them to a field goal in the process. They might not be able to pull that off again, but what happened wasn't exactly a fluke, either.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Billy Cundiff kicked five field goals in the first game between these two teams, but missed a sixth that would've been the eventual margin of victory. Cundiff remains very good on kickoffs, and Carr is a solid return man, but Reed gave the ball away on the Ravens' final punt return with one of his patented laterals.
Indy is right around average everywhere short punting, where they're slightly above-average, and on punt returns, where they're slightly below-average. Matt Stover will be kicking for them, with Adam Vinatieri likely inactive thanks to a bad knee.
OUTLOOK
A lot of this game will depend upon whether either team gets an early lead of more than a touchdown. If the Colts go up by two touchdowns early, they can rest assured that the Ravens will need to throw the ball, and pin Freeney and Mathis's ears back while dropping seven people into coverage, forcing Flacco to beat them. If the Ravens repeat their first quarter magic of a week ago, they can take the air out of the ball in much the same way they did against the Patriots, keeping Manning on the sidelines for an eight- or nine-possession game while forcing the Colts' defense to come up with stops against the run.
We know this much: If Ed Reed can cover for Frank Walker against Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, they should re-open the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
--Football Outsiders
Those clashing identities came out in Week 11, a frustrating football game played to a near-draw. The Ravens bookended their turns to touch the football with fumbles, starting with a Lardarius Webb kickoff return that was fumbled a fraction of a second after Webb hit the ground, and ending with the Ed Reed Special: An ill-advised lateral on a punt return with 20 seconds left, resulting in a fumble that was recovered by the Colts to seal a 17-15 victory. Inbetween, they kicked five field goals, missed a sixth, and were stuffed on three consecutive plays inside the two-yard line.
The Colts made their own mistakes. Peyton Manning threw two interceptions on two very questionable decisions, and while seldom-used tight end Tom Santi had a breakout game with six catches and several great blocks on the edge, his fumble inside the five cost the Colts a touchdown. False starts went uncalled. ACLs were torn. Ribs were broken. It was the sort of old-school game that the participants would smile about but wouldn't hold up on second viewing, and worst of all, Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf were calling it.
This Saturday's rematch should be very similar, although some of the faces for Baltimore will be different. The venue shifts from Baltimore to Indy, and while the Ravens won't be making the trek on Mayflower trucks, the Colts should be better on their home turf than they are on the road. (That's "should" and not "will" because Indianapolis's offensive DVOA is 13th at home and leads the league on the road, and their defense is 15th in either spot.) Expect big plays and compelling back-and-forth football, but if you're looking to pick a winner, expect it to come down to the play of two Ravens players.
WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL
Before reading this section, check out the excellent Cover-3 penned by Doug Farrar this week, with details on why the Ravens struggled in short yardage and only ended up with 15 points.
There's no subtle player that makes the Ravens go; their offense is built around Ray Rice, who repeated last year's Matt Forte trick of leading his team in both carries and receptions. Furthermore, Rice was targeted on a league-high 101 passes, 21 more than any other running back. Stopping Rice has to be the Colts' biggest concern on defense, even before getting pressure on Joe Flacco.
Although the Patriots didn't do many things right last week, one thing they did do well was shut down Rice as a receiver. Rice was held without a catch for the first time this season, although it admittedly came on only ten pass attempts from Flacco. That was thanks to bracket coverage on Rice coming out of the backfield, with a linebacker assigned to shadow him on every play and a defensive back preventing him from getting outside.
The Colts will have to account for Rice in a similar manner. Rice had seven catches for 64 yards against them in Week 11, including three first downs. Rice was often used in a swing role as a blocker/dumpoff receiver, releasing into the hashmarks after no rusher had occupied him. Although he's not the primary receiver on most plays, he's often Flacco's second look and open frequently enough to justify his target patterns.
Flacco can rely on Rice too much, though, which led to a game-changing interception in the fourth quarter of the first game. With the Ravens down two and 2:49 left in the game, they faced a third-and-7 from the Colts 14-yard line. They lined up in a three-wide receiver set, with Kelley Washington in the slot and Todd Heap at tight end. The Colts crowded the A-gaps with linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session, threatening a double A-gap blitz. At the snap, all six rushers came forward, with the Ravens sending all four receivers out into routes. Instead of staying in to block, Rice immediately went to the hashmarks to serve as the hot route.
On Flacco's second step backwards, the blitz disappeared off radar. Three of the six rushers -- the two linebackers and defensive end Robert Mathis -- stopped rushing and started dropping back into the center of the field, waiting for Rice. Flacco finished his drop, surveyed the field, and then threw his checkdown to Rice, who was triple-covered by the three disappearing blitzers. Brackett picked the pass off, and the Ravens' chance to take the lead evaporated. Considering the situation and the coverage, it was probably the worst pass Joe Flacco's thrown as a professional.
(Interestingly, left tackle Jared Gaither flinched twice before the snap, but his false start went uncalled, evoking the delayed false start call against the Titans in the Tennessee-Baltimore regular season game from 2008 that yielded a non-offsetting roughing the passer call on Terrell Suggs. Much like that game, you can trace the Ravens' loss to this one missed call.)
Indianapolis's blitz schemes remain firmly in the transitional phase, though. After firmly adhering to Tony Dungy's Tampa-2 scheme and building their defense around capably getting to the quarterback with their front four, new head coach Jim Caldwell turned up the dial on more blitzes this year. Outside of the Ravens game, Indy rushed five or more defenders on 25 percent of charted pass plays, a step up from their 16 percent rate of a year ago. Against the Ravens, though, their blitz disappeared; they sent five or more rushers on only five of Flacco's 34 dropbacks, sending exactly four rushers 27 times. Their five blitzes yielded three first downs, including a 45-yard bomb to Derrick Mason thrown out of the Ravens' end zone that ended in a simultaneous possession by Mason and Jerraud Powers. Only two of the five Colts' blitzes yielded hurries, and they all came on either second- or third-and-long; they've gotten pressure on their blitzes against teams besides the Ravens 32 percent of the time (against a league average of 28 percent), and only 21 percent of their blitzes have come on first down.
One difference between the Ravens' offense that shows up on Sunday and the one that was up against the Colts in November may be Flacco's hip. Many of Flacco's throws against the Colts were to the sidelines; virtually all of his passes that weren't dumpoffs to Rice were out patterns of various distances. Flacco clearly had troubles with his hip against the Patriots on Sunday, and if Flacco has mechanical issues and can't get any zip on his ball, Baltimore will have serious issues in the passing game. Gaither and fellow tackle Michael Oher had excellent days against Mathis and Dwight Freeney, holding the pair without a sack. They did combine for five hurries, though, so expect the Colts' star ends to get to Flacco just by the law of averages at one point or another. Freeney had his best success getting underneath the the mammoth Gaither at the line of scrimmage and driving him backwards into Flacco; it's hard for him to resist the urge to run around tackles, but the Colts would be better off for it.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
It's horrible to think that a human being might be defined by his or her failures. And yet, Custer's the guy who got taken out at Little Big Horn, Pete Best wasn't good enough to drum for the Beatles, and Roc Alexander will forever be remembered as Peyton Manning's plaything from one disastrous game in the 2004 AFC playoffs.
Alexander might soon have company. Enter one Frank Walker.
An argument against both the validity of game charting numbers and Ozzie Newsome's personnel skills, Walker is one of the worst cornerbacks in football. When he does make his way onto the field, teams go out of their way to target him, even though the average Domonique Foxworth resides on the other side. When he's not losing receivers in coverage, Walker's also a magnet for penalties. He's DeAngelo Hall without the speed or the ball skills, Shawn Springs without the great instincts, or Nnamdi Asomugha without the anything. And he's starting at corner for the Ravens this weekend.
Walker's not supposed to be a starting cornerback, but will be forced into action thanks to injuries. Struggling starter Fabian Washington tore his ACL in the fourth quarter of the Week 11 matchup between these two teams, and rookie Lardarius Webb tore an ACL of his own in Week 15 against Chicago. Undersized Chris Carr is next on the depth chart, but he's an effective slot corner that's too small to play on the outside. Retread Corey Ivy matches Carr's skill set, and rookie Cary Williams is strictly a special teams player and corner of last resort. That places Walker on the outside, likely against Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie on most plays. Manning might also exploit Walker indirectly; if the Ravens have to give Walker additional safety help on most plays, their blitz packages will be limited, and opportunities will open up on the other side of the field for Reggie Wayne against Foxworth in one-on-one coverage.
In the first game, the Ravens did a good job of taking away Dallas Clark with the same sort of bracket coverage that they placed on Wes Welker in their matchup with the Patriots, but they left opportunities downfield for Manning to exploit.
The Colts' biggest play of the day came in the first quarter, when Manning took advantage of the Ravens' aggressiveness to pick up 66 yards on one pass to Reggie Wayne. The Colts lined up with twin wide receivers on one side, while the Ravens showed man coverage against both of them. On the snap, Lardarius Webb, who was in man coverage in the slot, blitzed. With Webb onrushing, Manning froze three players with one pump fake, including Webb, who lept in the ear to try and knock the pass down. Foxworth -- who was actually in zone coverage on the side of the field with the twin receivers and was standing next to Wayne at the time of the pump fake -- didn't pursue Wayne's go route, and while Ed Reed was supposed to be providing safety support over the top, the pump fake got Reed rushing towards the slot receiver. That left Reggie Wayne, elite receiver, wide open streaking downfield.
On the other hand, Manning also got himself in trouble throwing downfield, with two interceptions that weren't impressive. On the first, Manning tried to fit a ball to Clark into a tight window against a Cover-2, and Washington was able to get back quickly enough to break up the pass and bat it into the air, leaving an easy pick for Dawan Landry. The second throw was virtually the exact same play as Manning's long completion to Wayne, with a pump fake attempting to get Reed and Foxworth off of Wayne and failing. Foxworth stuck with Wayne deep, and Reed undercut the pass to pick it off. That pass went 34 yards in the air; the long completion went 33.
Faced with elite opposition, both these teams flinch stylistically. The Colts spent most of their time during the regular season encounter between these two teams in a two-tight end set, with two wide receivers split to one side of the field or the other. The goal there is to combine formations with motion before the snap to make reading the Ravens' coverage before the snap an easier process. In response, a Ravens defender will occasionally sprint towards the line of scrimmage and feign like they've been caught in a forthcoming blitz by Manning before the snap, only to not rush once the ball's been snapped. It's a fascinating game of cat-and-mouse, even before the ball's out of Jeff Saturday's hand.
Baltimore will spend most of their time against this base offense in a 4-2-5 set, with Carr as the nickelback in the slot when the Colts go with twin wide receivers on one side. The Ravens did not have Terrell Suggs in Week 11, so Jarret Johnson lined up with his hand in the dirt on the line; expect Suggs to play that role this week, and give hobbled left tackle Charlie Johnson more trouble than Jarret Johnson did. When the Colts split out Clark, the Ravens move back into a 3-3-5 and line up Carr directly over Clark, giving him help from the extra linebacker.
One player who had an unexpectedly big game when these two teams met was tight end Tom Santi, who played a key role throughout the day. His six catches for 80 yards came despite his failing to catch a pass in 2009 before the game while only catching two passes for 27 yards afterwards. It was a role dictated by matchups; Santi was being left uncovered and finding holes in the Ravens' zones, with Baltimore too busy focusing on Wayne, Clark, Garcon, and Collie. That all came crashing down, though, when Santi caught a quick out at the five-yard line, turned upfield and ran for the endzone?and got waylaid by Reed and then Lewis, fumbling the ball away in the process. Back to the L.E.S for you, young man.
Santi was also a key contributor in the running game, which had a good day against the Ravens. The Colts' success rate against the Ravens was right above 42 percent (league average against Baltimore: 36 percent), and Santi was mostly effective sealing the edge against Johnson and even Trevor Pryce, allowing the Colts to pull an offensive lineman to the outside or get them to block the Ravens' linebackers at the second level. Also worth noting is that, besides Suggs' absence, Haloti Ngata was returning from an ankle injury and not at 100 percent, while Ray Lewis hurt his ankle during the game and was hobbled for most of the first half. Ngata played well, but took a stupid late hit penalty that turned a second-and-long into a first down for the Colts.
One interesting statistical note: Although it seems entirely counterintuitive, the Colts are actually the better short-yardage team of these two this year. Indianapolis was 12th running the ball in power situations and sixth against them, while Baltimore was ninth offensively and 11th when defending them. The Colts shut down the Ravens on three carries inside the two, holding them to a field goal in the process. They might not be able to pull that off again, but what happened wasn't exactly a fluke, either.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Billy Cundiff kicked five field goals in the first game between these two teams, but missed a sixth that would've been the eventual margin of victory. Cundiff remains very good on kickoffs, and Carr is a solid return man, but Reed gave the ball away on the Ravens' final punt return with one of his patented laterals.
Indy is right around average everywhere short punting, where they're slightly above-average, and on punt returns, where they're slightly below-average. Matt Stover will be kicking for them, with Adam Vinatieri likely inactive thanks to a bad knee.
OUTLOOK
A lot of this game will depend upon whether either team gets an early lead of more than a touchdown. If the Colts go up by two touchdowns early, they can rest assured that the Ravens will need to throw the ball, and pin Freeney and Mathis's ears back while dropping seven people into coverage, forcing Flacco to beat them. If the Ravens repeat their first quarter magic of a week ago, they can take the air out of the ball in much the same way they did against the Patriots, keeping Manning on the sidelines for an eight- or nine-possession game while forcing the Colts' defense to come up with stops against the run.
We know this much: If Ed Reed can cover for Frank Walker against Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, they should re-open the Defensive Player of the Year voting.
--Football Outsiders
