NBA THUR 01212010-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

40seven

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Two to pick from!!!


POD's are 2-0 this week

Today no POD! No games fit! Major leans to the home teams.

BOLTA
 

40seven

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A message to Ools

A message to Ools

and anyone who tailed the LAC Under

First I looked back at the posts and have two conclusions one I may have sounded like an .. so sorry

and

I follow Chump across the way and he and I are in a Will Bet contest (where he is winning and I am not if that matters), I saw his play in the contest, in the future if Chump wants to post and own a play he can post it, if I see it in the contest I will keep it to my self.

Sorry that one lost but...when can I say it was a real Moose job.

Lets stay hot!!!
 

BillyBatts

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Leans

Leans

Leans so far

Lakers +3.5 and under 194.5

Clips plus points and over 210




One thing about the Lakers on 2 days rest
They seem to have more energy on the defensive end only allowing 92.9 pts a game, versus 96.4 on other days rest, that's 3.5 points difference.
5 in a row, and 7 out of last 8 in this series have went under as well.

Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite
Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.:shrug:
 
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BillyBatts

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Query

Query

Someone last night asked for a query, could someone please run that when you get a chance?

I believe it was teams coming to Denver on the 2nd night of a b2b, and also maybe playing in Denver off of a ot game the night before, which Denver just did. Thanks in advance
 

proguy747

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Leans so far

Lakers +3.5 and under 194.5

Clips plus points and over 210




One thing about the Lakers on 2 days rest
They seem to have more energy on the defensive end only allowing 92.9 pts a game, versus 96.4 on other days rest, that's 3.5 points difference.
5 in a row, and 7 out of last 8 in this series have went under as well.

Cavaliers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite
Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.:shrug:

I would thow all those stats out the door and treat this laker game as a playoff game.

Like the under myself but tonight will be a small action play only. Should be a great game. lakers are going for revenge, lets see if the lakers get any calls this time.
 

BillyBatts

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I agree

I agree

Should be playoff intensity and I see a tough, under type game with the Lakers coming out on top. Everyone knows of thier recent struggles on the road, especially vs top tier teams. Now with gasol back, getting excellent value with the Lake show here. Just trying to figure out if I like the side or the total more. BOL :toast:
 

proguy747

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Should be playoff intensity and I see a tough, under type game with the Lakers coming out on top. Everyone knows of thier recent struggles on the road, especially vs top tier teams. Now with gasol back, getting excellent value with the Lake show here. Just trying to figure out if I like the side or the total more. BOL :toast:

After studying a little I am off the total and have jumped on the lakeshow.. They have a great record revenge a loss in every scenario possible.

Early card for me.
Lakers +3.5
lakers ML

Lakers ml/Denver -9.5 parlay.

Will lay money on the nuggets closer to game time.

Both teams avenging a loss seams like a good situational play.
 

40seven

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Against the flow again

Against the flow again

Cav's - 2 1/2 it may go lower

and

The Nug's - 9 1/2.

I go away for a while and it seems everyone is against me but at under -3, the value is huge. Kobe is off and the Cav's watch up well with the Big's.

As for the Nug's, the Clippers on the road back to back and the Public is all over them, they let the Public down every time they have this much support.

One unit split between the two!

BTW if anyone is not checking out Vipers plays, please do he is on FIRE!!!
 

JBrilman

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Someone last night asked for a query, could someone please run that when you get a chance?

I believe it was teams coming to Denver on the 2nd night of a b2b, and also maybe playing in Denver off of a ot game the night before, which Denver just did. Thanks in advance

I asked so I ran it myself...

team=Nuggets and p:site=away and site=home and rest=0 and 20071030<=date

SU: 8-6 (2.9)
ATS: 8-6-0 (-2.1) avg line -5.0

The other scenario I wanted was them coming of OT in b2b but it only happened once in 5 years and they lost SU to LAL in 2008 so not enough data.

I lean both DOGS and the under in the Laker game for now.
 
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JBrilman

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Lakers on THURSDAYS

Lakers on THURSDAYS

team=Lakers and day=Thursday and 20071030<=date

SU: 19-8 (8.5)
ATS: 18-9-0 (3.7)
avg line -4.8

O/U: 8-18-1 (-9.2)
avg total: 206.6



team=Lakers and site=away and day=Thursday and 20071030<=date

SU: 7-5 (4.2)
ATS: 8-4-0 (3.2)
avg line: -1.0
O/U: 2-10-0 (-14.5)
avg total 202.4
 

JBrilman

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Teams playing in DENVER on a b2b with first leg at home

Teams playing in DENVER on a b2b with first leg at home

o:team=Nuggets and p:site=home and site=away and rest=0 and 20091030<=date

SU: 1-6 (-11.1)
ATS: 3-3-1 (-2.9) avg line: 8.2
O/U: 3-4-0 (-5.9) avg total: 215.6
 

40seven

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I keep one of my Best Stats

I keep one of my Best Stats

I keep a stat called Xtreme Bucks that is when the public is on a team in excess of 70% and still won. The last time the Lakers won with the Xtreme public was Dec 19 at the Nets!!! The Nets have given up the most XBucks all year. They have 4 losses since then.


FYI:

The Lakers are 1-3 as dogs this year.
 

JBrilman

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The Lakers are 1-3 as dogs this year.

Actually 40 they are 1-4 with losses at Denver, Utah, Phoenix and San Antonio, however they won the last game on the road as a dog at Dallas and without Pau Gaso. I think the Lakers really turned a corner with that game.

They then put a 40 point beat down on the Clips to avenge a loss earlier in the week and then held serve against Orlando.

I think the Lakes get it done tonight.

LAKERS ML +125
 

JBrilman

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CAVS AS A FAVORITE ON THURSDAYS (not very impressive)

CAVS AS A FAVORITE ON THURSDAYS (not very impressive)

team=Cavaliers and day=Thursday and line<0 and 20071030<=date

SU: 7-6 (2.2)
ATS: 5-8-0 (-6.0) avg line: -8.3
O/U: 7-6-0 (1.0) avg total: 193.4
 

JBrilman

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CAVS ON THURSDAY (even worse)

CAVS ON THURSDAY (even worse)

team=Cavaliers and day=Thursday and 20071030<=date
SU: 11-13 (-1.8)
ATS: 10-13-1 (-4.3) avg line: -2.5
O/U: 10-14-0 (-1.6) avg total: 191.
 
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