NBA MON 02012010-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting
- Thread starter BillyBatts
- Start date
I understand
I understand
I understand what you're trying to say, but why only go 1-0 when you can go 3-1 or 4-0?? :yup
I do agree there isnt much value at all in the memphis game, it's why they aren't my POD, but I am playing it. I think there is great value in the Kings, the Hornets over, and the Blazers Over.
The Kings because they always play Denver tough, and with Carmello coming back tonight, he will probably be rusty and they may "force" it to him too much in order to get him back in rythm, plus I think the line is inflated due to his return. Like Kings and under.
Over in Suns-Hornets game, due to the Suns playing less defense than usual on a road game of a b2b, and without Paul to dictate the pace for his team, I could see the Hornets getting away from the gameplan and running with pho, plus you lose the defense with Paul.
Over value in Blazer-Bobs as I mentioned above. 12 straight overs for these 2, with a bigger average total than the one set tonight. Thank you for letting ME rant :rant2:
I understand
I understand what you're trying to say, but why only go 1-0 when you can go 3-1 or 4-0?? :yup
I do agree there isnt much value at all in the memphis game, it's why they aren't my POD, but I am playing it. I think there is great value in the Kings, the Hornets over, and the Blazers Over.
The Kings because they always play Denver tough, and with Carmello coming back tonight, he will probably be rusty and they may "force" it to him too much in order to get him back in rythm, plus I think the line is inflated due to his return. Like Kings and under.
Over in Suns-Hornets game, due to the Suns playing less defense than usual on a road game of a b2b, and without Paul to dictate the pace for his team, I could see the Hornets getting away from the gameplan and running with pho, plus you lose the defense with Paul.
Over value in Blazer-Bobs as I mentioned above. 12 straight overs for these 2, with a bigger average total than the one set tonight. Thank you for letting ME rant :rant2:
Good point
Good point
I can only say that was Ax's big thing I big Unit a day.
You know I love to play....my mentor always said Players Play...
I have no problems with plays but finding the one GEM gives us an edge
Good point
I can only say that was Ax's big thing I big Unit a day.
You know I love to play....my mentor always said Players Play...
I have no problems with plays but finding the one GEM gives us an edge
Come on man
Come on man
You know the public is all over the Lakers and the Blanket bunch is tailing PV, which is proven to be good.
Who is right?
I personally agree with you JB, and if I were going to watch or go to the game I would but an action amount on it say $50, but if I were to put One Thousand dollars on this game I would be crazy
Come on man
You know the public is all over the Lakers and the Blanket bunch is tailing PV, which is proven to be good.
Who is right?
I personally agree with you JB, and if I were going to watch or go to the game I would but an action amount on it say $50, but if I were to put One Thousand dollars on this game I would be crazy
Plays for today.
Plays for today.
Posted record as of 1-20
22-10 W/L
POD'S 7-2
Locked these in.:director:
Hornets OVER 212.5 POD
Over is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games playing on 0 days rest
Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Memphis +1.5
Gut feeling and letdown spot for LA.
Lakers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Lakers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss
Kings +11.5
Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater.
Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater.
Kings are 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
Nuggets are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Nuggets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Blazers OVER 189.5
Over is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Best of luck fellas. :00x1
Plays for today.
Posted record as of 1-20
22-10 W/L
POD'S 7-2
Locked these in.:director:
Hornets OVER 212.5 POD
Over is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games playing on 0 days rest
Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Suns last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Memphis +1.5
Gut feeling and letdown spot for LA.
Lakers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Lakers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Grizzlies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss
Kings +11.5
Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater.
Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater.
Kings are 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
Nuggets are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Nuggets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Blazers OVER 189.5
Over is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Best of luck fellas. :00x1
The site I use has 94% on the Lakers ML andd 80% Lakers -1.5.. It doesn't tell you the money amounts though.. Pitt Viper is on Memphis and now you are on the LAL.. I think I will have to pass.
Forty
Forty
LOL too funny! Public is all over Lakers so I guess you would call it a square play but with Brandon Lang and ALL of covers on Memphis would that be called a "square" sharp play??? Take a look at Value for Rents thread across the street about Memphis starters logging big minutes this year with no bench. Interesting stuff.
By the way if the line was set at Memphis -2 would you or anyone still play Memphis?
MAYBE
The line is set to attract action on both sides remember that. If it was set at -6 LAL would you EVER bet that???
NOPE you wouldn't.
It will be an average bet for me $200-500 depending on how many games I play today. I agree it was great to find the one game with value however I never bet that way even when Ax was here, and you will notice this year Ax and GS have multiple plays of value sometimes, just usually dogs and unders.
List of games that I will narrow down!
Bos -5
Miami -6.5
Phoenix ML
PHO FH O107
LAL -1.5
DAL +4 & ML
CHA ML
CHA Over 189.5
Forty
LOL too funny! Public is all over Lakers so I guess you would call it a square play but with Brandon Lang and ALL of covers on Memphis would that be called a "square" sharp play??? Take a look at Value for Rents thread across the street about Memphis starters logging big minutes this year with no bench. Interesting stuff.
By the way if the line was set at Memphis -2 would you or anyone still play Memphis?
MAYBE
The line is set to attract action on both sides remember that. If it was set at -6 LAL would you EVER bet that???
NOPE you wouldn't.
It will be an average bet for me $200-500 depending on how many games I play today. I agree it was great to find the one game with value however I never bet that way even when Ax was here, and you will notice this year Ax and GS have multiple plays of value sometimes, just usually dogs and unders.
List of games that I will narrow down!
Bos -5
Miami -6.5
Phoenix ML
PHO FH O107
LAL -1.5
DAL +4 & ML
CHA ML
CHA Over 189.5
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The BIG money bets have been on Memphis or the line would not have dropped from -2.5.
This is a GUT play boys no need to tail here! Besides I am a homer!
Final card
Kings @ Nuggets U211.5 (POD)
Bobcats @ Blazers O189.5
Celtics @ Wizards O191
BOLTA :mj06:
Joe
Kings @ Nuggets U211.5 (POD)
Bobcats @ Blazers O189.5
Celtics @ Wizards O191
BOLTA :mj06:
Joe
Sorry if it was unclear
P:W and PP:W and P:season=season and PP:season=season and line>=10
means that the team which won both the previous time these teams played and two times ago when these teams played has those stats.
P:W team won the last time these two met
PP:W team won 2 times ago when these two met
P:season=season the last time they met was this season
PP:season=season two times ago when they met it was this season
line>=10 they are now getting 10 or more points.
So, yes, over the database, the team which won both prior encounters and now is a 10 point dog has not done very well.
P:W and PP:W and P:season=season and PP:season=season and line>=10
means that the team which won both the previous time these teams played and two times ago when these teams played has those stats.
P:W team won the last time these two met
PP:W team won 2 times ago when these two met
P:season=season the last time they met was this season
PP:season=season two times ago when they met it was this season
line>=10 they are now getting 10 or more points.
So, yes, over the database, the team which won both prior encounters and now is a 10 point dog has not done very well.
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In case you're interested:
ou streak>=6 and o
u streak>=6 and Hthat reads the home team is on a streak of 6 or more overs and the other team is on a streak of 6 or more overs
I only have it happening 8 times in the database
SU: 4-4 (2.4)
ATS: 4-3-1 (-0.9) avg line: -3.2
O/U: 3-5-0 (-9.3) avg total: 207.4
FORTY7
FORTY7
Looks like Portland OVER could be the consensus play and the "gem" tonight. Glad to see a lot of you on the same side . Hope it's a great night for the board. :clap:
FORTY7
Looks like Portland OVER could be the consensus play and the "gem" tonight. Glad to see a lot of you on the same side . Hope it's a great night for the board. :clap:
Thanks
Thanks
I agree, that or the Celtics Over
eeeerock has an interesting Prop check it out.
Thanks
I agree, that or the Celtics Over
eeeerock has an interesting Prop check it out.
Friends
Friends
I am not attempting to change this but
yesterday was sweet many people working together to get on the right side of several plays it was fun.
It seems as we get into a game picking we all lose.
I like having two or three NBA plays a night with one leader.
The Blanket group is a game picker group this is special
Friends
I am not attempting to change this but
yesterday was sweet many people working together to get on the right side of several plays it was fun.
It seems as we get into a game picking we all lose.
I like having two or three NBA plays a night with one leader.
The Blanket group is a game picker group this is special
