February College Hoops Conference Play
With the calendar turning to February, this marks the most important month of the season in college basketball for conference title hopefuls, and teams in line for bids to the tournament in March. With that in mind, I?d like to take a look at the last five years of college basketball February action. In particular, what I will be looking to find out is if there are any specific conferences where underdogs or favorites have a significant edge at this point in the season.
When I think about this particular month in the grand scheme of a college basketball season, a few key things come to my mind?
Familiarity plays a role in conference basketball the deeper you get into the season from a couple of vantage points. First, coaches have had the chance to review plenty of tape of their opponents from prior league games. Second, many of the games in February are rematches from earlier head-to-head action.
Bettors are finally starting to get deep into their college hoops betting with football having concluded, and have taken their ?snapshots? of the various teams around the country based upon polls, stats, and won-lost records.
Oddsmakers of course, have been studying all of the board teams since November, and are likely to be ?overpricing? public teams at this point.
Some conferences consistently boast better balance, while others tend to be more top heavy. In the former, underdogs would figure to be the more profitable wager, while in the latter, favorites would seem to be the play.
It is from that last observation that I got the idea of studying conference history in February. Before getting into the results I uncovered though, note that these numbers reflect February games of the last five seasons. They only cover CONFERENCE games, and only REGULAR SEASON games. The summarized table below shows the combined results of all line ranges. The page opposite shows the breakdown at home/on the road and by various pointspreads.
Double-digit Home or Road Favorites
On of the interesting things you will see on the double-digit favorites charts is that only one team catching 10 or more points has pulled an upset in Big East play over the last five seasons. Their combined mark is 1-64 SU & but 33-31 ATS. In other words, the Big East is a league that oddsmakers tend to over-inflate favorites in. Conference USA tends to follow a very similar pattern, with double-digit chalk having gone 67-3 SU & 34-36 ATS since ?05. Of course, Memphis has played the majority of these games.
Not surprisingly, Big Ten double-digit road underdogs are a very profitable wager at this time of the season. With the games in this conference often becoming a physical grind the second time around, it becomes very difficult for a better team to separate by margins wide enough to cover over-inflated prices. As it turns out, the double-digit road dog in Big Ten play is 30-18 ATS over the L5 seasons. Large home favorites have also had problems covering pointspreads in the Ivy League and Metro Atlantic conferences.
The MAC, Sun Belt, and WAC have proven to be leagues where the bottom teams simply don?t measure up as well.
Mid-Ranged Favorites
Again, Conference USA tends to be one of the most favorite-dominated leagues in the country, and you will see that on the summarized chart below. C-USA favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 range, regardless of whether they are at home or on the road, have gone 97-16 SU for 86%. There are three leagues whose double-digit favorites don?t even win at that frequency. In this case though, the home chalk in this range from C-USA has turned out to be a highly profitable wager too when considering the pointspread. They are 46-29 ATS, good for 61%.
Elsewhere across the country, SEC, Big Ten and Big East typically boast a sizeable home court advantage when favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range, with such favorites in each league owning won-lost marks better than 80%. However, only the Big Ten and Big East teams get it done on the Vegas number as well, with the Big Ten owning the best ATS mark of any conference in this group at 35-18 ATS. If you recall the double-digit favorite section, the chalk struggled in Big Ten play, so be careful this February when evaluating games that look to be blowouts on paper. Those that should be more competitive tend to fit that bill more.
Small Favorites
One would have to surmise that the better the record of the small home favorite, the more advantageous home court is in a given conference. After all, most of these lines are built assuming the road team is a bit better of a team, with the theoretical home court edge providing the eventual margin. If that assumption is true, then take note of the teams from the SEC, Ivy league, and Colonial Athletic Association. In fact, SEC home favorites of 3-points or less not only boast the best outright winning percentage of any conference, but also the best spread covering mark.
One other interesting observation is that in seven conferences, including the ACC, Big East, and Pac 10, small home favorites win 50% or less of the time outright. This is typically a sign of competitive balance.
In terms of small road favorites, pay special attention to the Missouri Valley Conference, where road teams laying 3-points or less in February are an outstanding 16-4 SU & 14-6 ATS over the last five seasons. In that same time span, in the Ivy league & Big Ten, these same teams have struggled mightily.
With the calendar turning to February, this marks the most important month of the season in college basketball for conference title hopefuls, and teams in line for bids to the tournament in March. With that in mind, I?d like to take a look at the last five years of college basketball February action. In particular, what I will be looking to find out is if there are any specific conferences where underdogs or favorites have a significant edge at this point in the season.
When I think about this particular month in the grand scheme of a college basketball season, a few key things come to my mind?
Familiarity plays a role in conference basketball the deeper you get into the season from a couple of vantage points. First, coaches have had the chance to review plenty of tape of their opponents from prior league games. Second, many of the games in February are rematches from earlier head-to-head action.
Bettors are finally starting to get deep into their college hoops betting with football having concluded, and have taken their ?snapshots? of the various teams around the country based upon polls, stats, and won-lost records.
Oddsmakers of course, have been studying all of the board teams since November, and are likely to be ?overpricing? public teams at this point.
Some conferences consistently boast better balance, while others tend to be more top heavy. In the former, underdogs would figure to be the more profitable wager, while in the latter, favorites would seem to be the play.
It is from that last observation that I got the idea of studying conference history in February. Before getting into the results I uncovered though, note that these numbers reflect February games of the last five seasons. They only cover CONFERENCE games, and only REGULAR SEASON games. The summarized table below shows the combined results of all line ranges. The page opposite shows the breakdown at home/on the road and by various pointspreads.
Double-digit Home or Road Favorites
On of the interesting things you will see on the double-digit favorites charts is that only one team catching 10 or more points has pulled an upset in Big East play over the last five seasons. Their combined mark is 1-64 SU & but 33-31 ATS. In other words, the Big East is a league that oddsmakers tend to over-inflate favorites in. Conference USA tends to follow a very similar pattern, with double-digit chalk having gone 67-3 SU & 34-36 ATS since ?05. Of course, Memphis has played the majority of these games.
Not surprisingly, Big Ten double-digit road underdogs are a very profitable wager at this time of the season. With the games in this conference often becoming a physical grind the second time around, it becomes very difficult for a better team to separate by margins wide enough to cover over-inflated prices. As it turns out, the double-digit road dog in Big Ten play is 30-18 ATS over the L5 seasons. Large home favorites have also had problems covering pointspreads in the Ivy League and Metro Atlantic conferences.
The MAC, Sun Belt, and WAC have proven to be leagues where the bottom teams simply don?t measure up as well.
Mid-Ranged Favorites
Again, Conference USA tends to be one of the most favorite-dominated leagues in the country, and you will see that on the summarized chart below. C-USA favorites in the -3.5 to -9.5 range, regardless of whether they are at home or on the road, have gone 97-16 SU for 86%. There are three leagues whose double-digit favorites don?t even win at that frequency. In this case though, the home chalk in this range from C-USA has turned out to be a highly profitable wager too when considering the pointspread. They are 46-29 ATS, good for 61%.
Elsewhere across the country, SEC, Big Ten and Big East typically boast a sizeable home court advantage when favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range, with such favorites in each league owning won-lost marks better than 80%. However, only the Big Ten and Big East teams get it done on the Vegas number as well, with the Big Ten owning the best ATS mark of any conference in this group at 35-18 ATS. If you recall the double-digit favorite section, the chalk struggled in Big Ten play, so be careful this February when evaluating games that look to be blowouts on paper. Those that should be more competitive tend to fit that bill more.
Small Favorites
One would have to surmise that the better the record of the small home favorite, the more advantageous home court is in a given conference. After all, most of these lines are built assuming the road team is a bit better of a team, with the theoretical home court edge providing the eventual margin. If that assumption is true, then take note of the teams from the SEC, Ivy league, and Colonial Athletic Association. In fact, SEC home favorites of 3-points or less not only boast the best outright winning percentage of any conference, but also the best spread covering mark.
One other interesting observation is that in seven conferences, including the ACC, Big East, and Pac 10, small home favorites win 50% or less of the time outright. This is typically a sign of competitive balance.
In terms of small road favorites, pay special attention to the Missouri Valley Conference, where road teams laying 3-points or less in February are an outstanding 16-4 SU & 14-6 ATS over the last five seasons. In that same time span, in the Ivy league & Big Ten, these same teams have struggled mightily.
