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Old School · Feb 5, 2010

:0corn

John Clayton: Colts, 27-24

In what should be the close game, Peyton Manning's experience playing in a Super Bowl should be the difference. With seven fourth-quarter comebacks this season and two weeks to prepare for the Saints' defense, Manning will slip past Drew Brees and New Orleans with one or two crucial fourth-quarter scoring drives.

Jeffri Chadiha: Colts, 31-21

Indianapolis has the edge in offense, defense and Super Bowl experience. In other words, this could get ugly.

Tim Graham: Colts, 38-31

Two quarterbacks who know how to exploit a defense's weakness will make Super Bowl XLIV a humdinger. The difference will be the greatest quarterback of this generation shredding the NFL's 25th-ranked defense.


Super Bowl Voting Shifts

SportsNation installed the Colts as its favorite to win Super Bowl XLIV by a 63-37% margin. But that number goes down to 52% if Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney doesn't play.

<LI sizset="33" sizcache="0">Colts big favorites | Without Freeney
Whom is SportsNation rooting for?

Paul Kuharsky: Colts, 33-20

In the end, Peyton Manning's precision is more than the Saints' defense can handle over 60 minutes. He lifts the Lombardi Trophy again, and his critics have to get more creative. The Colts' D gets some notice too.

Len Pasquarelli: Colts, 27-17
Too much Peyton for Payton.

Mike Sando: Colts, 34-27

Peyton Manning was much more impressive dismantling the Jets than Drew Brees was attacking the Vikings. The Saints have shown plenty capable, but I'm more inclined to trust Manning over the course of four quarters. He can make every possession count.

Kevin Seifert: Colts, 31-21

The Saints' defense is smart and quick. Peyton Manning is smarter and quicker.

Pat Yasinskas: Saints, 31-24

The only difference between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees is that Manning has a Super Bowl ring and Brees doesn't. That's about to change

Sunday Countdown: Your weekly NFL guide

Ditka New Orleans

JohnsonNew Orleans

Carter Indianapolis

Jackson Indianapolis

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Old School · Feb 5, 2010

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 sizset="15" sizcache="0"><TBODY sizset="15" sizcache="0"><TR class=stathead><TD colSpan=11>NFL Expert Picks - Super Bowl</TD></TR><TR class=colhead><TD></TD><TD align=middle>Allen</TD><TD align=middle>Golic</TD><TD align=middle>Hoge</TD><TD align=middle>Jaworski</TD><TD align=middle>Mortensen</TD><TD align=middle>Schefter</TD><TD align=middle>Schlereth</TD><TD align=middle>Wickersham</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow sizset="15" sizcache="0"><TD></TD><TD class=img align=middle>

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</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Saints

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Colts

</TD><TD vAlign=center align=middle>Saints

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Old School · Feb 5, 2010

Harmon Forecast: Super Bowl

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<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD colSpan=4>Sunday, Feb. 7, 2010</TD></TR><TR id=special class=bg4 align=left><TD colSpan=2 align=left>New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts</TD></TR><TR id=rowSpan class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD width="10%" align=left>

30</TD><TD rowSpan=2 width="90%" align=left>The Saints haven't been as productive in the playoffs as they've averaged just 218.0 passing yards in two postseason wins after generating 272.2 yards a game in the regular season. Saints TE Jeremy Shockey hopes to play in the Super Bowl, but he has been bothered by an injury to his right knee and is listed as questionable for the game. Colts QB Peyton Manning has played well this season considering that there is no Marvin Harrison and that third-year WR Anthony Gonzalez was hurt in the opening game of the regular season. With two explosive offenses, this game could come down to how well each team's defense does against the opposing quarterback. The Colts' pass rush could be effected by the health of defensive end Dwight Freeney, who has a third-degree sprain of his right ankle.</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 height=17 vAlign=top align=right><TD align=left>

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Old School · Feb 5, 2010

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD class=bg0 colSpan=3>Expert Picks (against the spread)
<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg0 align=left><TD class=bg0 colSpan=3>CBS SPORTS</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Expert</TD><TD>Pick</TD><TD>Reason</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Harmon:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD>With two explosive offenses, the edge to Peyton Manning, who has played extremely well in the postseason.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Prisco:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD>If you blitz Peyton Manning, you will pay. The Saints can only get pressure by blitzing. He will light them up. The Saints won't keep up.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Judge:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD>Tell me how the Saints can stop Peyton Manning and his coterie of receivers. They can't.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Madden:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD>Colts will win thanks to a late field goal from Adam ? I mean Matt Stover.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Richard:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD>I think the Colts' secondary matches up better with the Saints' receivers than the Saints' secondary matches up with the Colts' receivers.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Urbano:</TD><TD>

</TD><TD>Both QBs will be great, but I trust the players around Manning much more. Dallas Clark could have a huge game. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Old School · Feb 7, 2010

:0corn

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD class=bg0font align=left></TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD width="100%">Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com Senior Writer: Colts 41, Saints 27 |

Pete's Pick

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Blitzing Peyton Manning is like sticking your finger in Mike Tyson's face. You're asking for it. Gregg Williams is asking for it. Williams, the Saints defensive coordinator, is a former head coach. He wants to be in that spot again. What better way to make your r?sum? sparkle than with a game plan that features exotic blitzes that slow Manning? The problem is that isn't the ideal way to stop the Colts offense. To do that, you have to play sound principles, making Manning be patient. He cut up the Jets in the AFC title game when they blitzed him, and that was the top-rated defense. He'll do the same here against a New Orleans D that struggled vs. the pass much of the season. It will take one or two series, but by then Manning will have Williams and his defense figured out. He'll get Darren Sharper to bite on two throws, each leading to big plays. Aggression will work against the Saints. The New Orleans offense will score early, but then when they realize they have to match the Colts score for score it will wilt under the pressure. The Saints will keep it close for a half, but in the third quarter Manning will have it rolling. New Orleans will have a big third-quarter turnover that leads to separation for the Colts. In the end, Manning has one of the all-time great games by a Super Bowl quarterback -- 345 yards and four scores -- as he gets his second ring, putting him in the argument for greatest all-time.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD width="100%">Clark Judge, CBSSports.com Senior Writer: Colts 34, Saints 23 </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top>

I was there when Peyton Manning put up 30 points on the No. 1-ranked overall defense, the No. 1-ranked pass defense, the No. 1-ranked scoring defense and the best cornerback in the league. So if he can do that to the New York Jets, what does he do to New Orleans? This is a club that forced Minnesota into five turnovers, yet the Vikings still produced 28 points and pushed the game into overtime. Let me put it this way: I like the Colts' chances of stopping Drew Brees more than I like the Saints' chances of stopping Manning, and here's why: The Colts' defense might surrender more yards than you would like but it doesn't surrender a lot of points or a lot of big plays. In fact, before the final two games of the regular season, where they weren't at full strength, the Colts were tied for second in the NFL in scoring defense. And it's there where they win this game. Coach Jim Caldwell last week described his defense as "fast," and the Saints are about to find out just how fast. "A lot of people use their speed," said defensive end Raheem Brock. "We think Minnesota played [the Saints] well. They haven't seen our speed yet, our whole team defensive speed." They will soon, and it will make a difference.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD width="100%">Gregg Doyel, CBSSports.com National Columnist:
Saints 41, Colts 34

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I could tell you this is Dwight Freeney's fault. He's the Colts' best defensive player, and he has that bad ankle. While I'm sure he'll start, I'm just as sure he won't be able to finish. Or I could tell you this is Reggie Wayne's fault. He's the Colts' best receiver, and he reinjured his knee Friday, and while I'm sure he'll start, I'm just as sure he'll play at less than full speed. The same goes for left guard Ryan Lilja (back) and cornerback Jerraud Powers (foot). They'll play, but they'll play hurt. But when the Saints beat the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV, it won't be because of injuries. The Colts aren't going to lose because they're less than full strength. Nope. The Colts are going to lose because Saints coach Sean Payton is the best in the league at getting his team ready to play a big game. This is a pretty big game, right? The Saints have more firepower than the Colts. The Colts have been more focused and more consistent throughout the year, but when the Saints are at their best -- like they were against the Giants, Patriots and Cardinals this season -- they're frightening. And they're the best team in the NFL. That's my theory, and I hope like hell that theory gets tested on Sunday. Because if the Saints bring their 'A' game -- the Colts definitely will bring their 'A' game; it's what they do -- this would be one of the best Super Bowls ever. And it will end with New Orleans on top.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD width="100%">Mike Freeman, CBSSports.com National Columnist:
Saints 28, Colts 25

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The lack of respect shown the New Orleans Saints is starting to reach asinine proportions. The latest example comes from Tony Dungy. In picking the Colts, he was quoted recently as saying, "I don't think it's going to be close." Dungy is the former Indianapolis coach and it's expected he'll support his team, but that kind of prediction demonstrates an inexcusable arrogance. Not close? Has Dungy been watching the Saints this year? New Orleans was first in points scored, first in yards per game, fourth in passing yards and sixth in rushing yards. The Saints' defense isn't very good, but it hasn't had to be because that offense is so brilliant. They lit up a solid Minnesota defense in the title game and they'll do the same to the Indianapolis defense with a limited Dwight Freeney (if he plays at all, and I'm not convinced he will). Not close? The Saints play with passion and skill and, oh yeah, they have quarterback Drew Brees. Let's also remember something: The Colts' defense is a bit banged up. Not close? The Saints deserve more respect than that. They've earned it. And you know what Dungy has done with his insane prediction? He has given coach Sean Payton more bulletin-board material, and from what I'm told he has been working the lack-of-respect angle all week with his players. Not close? C'mon, Tony. You're better than that.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD width="100%">Larry Holder, CBSSports.com NFL correspondent:
Saints 38, Colts 31

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top>New Orleans' opportunistic secondary is the primary difference in what sets the Saints and Indianapolis Colts apart and this element will be what ultimately lands the Lombardi Trophy in Louisiana. By far the most important change in the Saints' defense is the ability to create turnovers. New Orleans has taken the ball away 46 times, including seven during its two playoff victories. The Saints are the No. 1 red-zone defense, as opponents only score touchdowns 39 percent of the time. It begs the clich? of bend but don't break, but it's true in the Saints' case. When the Saints need a turnover, look to safety Darren Sharper or cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter. Once these three players returned healthy after they all missed time in the second half of the season, the defense returned to its opportunistic ways. Sure, Peyton Manning can read defenses, but if there's anyone who can bait Manning into throwing a pass that shouldn't be thrown it's Sharper. Greer has become the shutdown cornerback you've never heard of, and Porter will come up huge like he did when he picked off Brett Favre near the end of regulation in the NFC Championship Game.

</TD></TR><TR class=bg1 align=left><TD width="100%">John Oehser, CBSSports.com NFL correspondent:
Colts 31, Saints 23

</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD vAlign=top>The Colts will win Sunday. They're the more experienced team, have the better quarterback and a slightly better defense. In Super Bowls, those three factors matter. Maybe more than any other. Forget all the talk about Peyton Manning and his legacy. That's postgame talk. What matters Sunday is Manning's unique ability to decipher a defense, with an equal ability to exploit what he deciphered. The Colts' NFL-record seven fourth-quarter comebacks this season were no accident. The early parts of games were about figuring out what the opponent was doing, and because the Colts are an experienced, poised team, whatever the situation, they overcame it. The Colts played 16 games that mattered this season and never panicked in any of them. They also won them all, and if they stay poised in the frantic early minutes, they should win Sunday, too. Actually, even if the early minutes go wrong, that won't ruin their chances. The defense -- even without end Dwight Freeney -- is quicker and better than many observers believe, a unit with a knack for big plays at proper times. They will get the Saints off the field just enough to allow Manning to control the second-half momentum. That has been the Colts' way all season. Hard to imagine it changing Sunday. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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