NBA SUN 02072010 - Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

[JBrilman]

I am starting the thread up for Sunday as we only have 2 games on the menu however I think both will present excellent value.

Well it was a profitable saturday winning just under 4 units but just missed on Kansas State and both OKC/GSW shit the bed in the 4th to kill my over which those 2 losses cost me netting another 20+ units.

All my losses recently have been tough beats. Time to get some easy winners!!

Early Leans

Toronto -8.5 & U215.5
Bos/Orl U????

 

[Ools]

We have a nice little community here, NBA action is limited, so let's not be afraid to share some Super bowl love too.

I'm a Colt believer myself (this week), and not changing, but if anyone carves out some prop stuff that looks playable, ...please bring out to the group.

Nice weeks guy...had probably three of my top 15 days ever this week, but had my absolute #1 biggest loser day ever on Wednesday...but a notch ahead for the week.

 

[barts185]

Here's a couple of props where you have to lay some juice, but nowhere near what you should be laying.

Will either team score in the final 2 minutes of the first half? YES around -300 (should be around -700, maybe more).

Will BOTH teams kick a FG of 33+ yards? NO around -230.



Colts are the 2nd least penalized team, so:

Saints to get the most penalty Yards. Not sure if there's still value in this one, I got it at -160, now I see -180 and higher.

Saints to get the first penalty (not of a specific type, but those should be good as well). This one is still around -120. More variance than the previous one, but still a very good wager.


Colts don't fumble very much, so:

Saints to have the first fumble or lost fumble (NOTE THAT THIS IS -NOT- THE SAME AS THE FIRST TURNOVER).


Good Luck,
Bart

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

May not play any NBA game today. At 1st glance have slight leans towards Kings and over, and Celts and under, but waiting on Pierce's status.



As for the SB, nice props you got the Bart, BOL.
I will be on Saints +5 and the Under i will take small or put in a parlay.
Name the last great QB the Colts faced?? The Saints have proved they can slow down elite QB's.
Just look at how each defense fared against Brady and Co., and both were home games for today's teams. The Colts all year have played from behind, and if they do today, I think it will be too big a hole to get out of. The opening line is kind of fishy as well, as you know the oddsmakers knew from the Champ Game performances, the Colts win was more impressive and they would get more action. That being said, I have a terrible track record in Super Bowls for some reason, so BOL everyone, have a great time whatever ya do, and be safe as well. :toast:

 

[BillyBatts]

One PLay

One PLay

Updated posted record

34-15 W/L
POD's 11-4

Not going to try to force any plays today, but one stands out.

Locked in

Celts-Magic UNDER 188.5

Won't be a POD, just a regular one unit wager.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings (the one over was because of OT)
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record
Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games as a road underdog
Under is 21-7 in Magic last 28 games following a S.U. loss.



Best of luck today fellas!! :toast:

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Final card

Kings @ Raptors U217

BOLTA :mj06:
Joe

 

[JBrilman]

Couldn't resist since I'm gonna be home watchin TV all day anyway

Couldn't resist since I'm gonna be home watchin TV all day anyway

Todays Plays

Toronto FH -4.5
Toronto -8
Toronto U216
Orl ML +135
Orl U 188.5

And a few small parlays with some of those bets. Let's make some cash to lay on the Mannings ML later!!

 

[JBrilman]

Not looking so good for that under gonna need someone to shit the bed.

And thanks for the FH moose Toronto. Way to many missed FT and bad transition D. Sacramento should not score 59 in a half on anybody.

 

[Lumi]

Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.

All games in this series since 1996
BOSTON is 35-25 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996
ORLANDO is 33-27 straight up against BOSTON since 1996
29 of 58 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-8 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 10-7 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons





All games played at BOSTON since 1996
BOSTON is 21-8 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996
BOSTON is 19-10 straight up against ORLANDO since 1996
15 of 29 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996

Games played at BOSTON over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 4-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 4-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Lumi]

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Boston Celtics are ranked 17 on offense, averaging 99.2 points per game. The Celtics shooting percentages include 48.6 FG%, 74.6 FT%, and 34.9 three point % so far this season.

The Orlando Magic are ranked 15 on offense, averaging 100.6 points per game. The Magic shooting percentages include 45.5 FG%, 71.5 FT%, and 36.3 three point % so far this season.

Home and Away


The Boston Celtics are 15-8 at home this season, and 22-10 against 403879.abbrev opponents.
At home the Celtics are averaging 99.7 scoring, and holding teams to 94.0 points scored on defense.

The Orlando Magic are 14-12 while on the road this season, and 23-10 against Eastern opponents.
On the road, the Magic are averaging 97.9 scoring, and holding teams to 97.4 points scored on defense.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

could be ugly :sadwave:

 

[Lumi]

Trends - Orlando at Boston

Trends - Orlando at Boston

Trends - Orlando at Boston

ATS Trends

Orlando

Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Magic are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Magic are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Magic are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 games as an underdog.
Magic are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Magic are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Magic are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Magic are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.


Boston

Celtics are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.
Celtics are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite.
Celtics are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 home games.
Celtics are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Celtics are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Celtics are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Celtics are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Celtics are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Celtics are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


OU Trends

Orlando

Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 5-1 in Magic last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 9-2 in Magic last 11 Sunday games.
Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 7-2 in Magic last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 21-7 in Magic last 28 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 20-8 in Magic last 28 overall.
Under is 20-8 in Magic last 28 road games.
Under is 35-16 in Magic last 51 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 37-18 in Magic last 55 games playing on 1 days rest.


Boston

Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.
Under is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 games as a favorite.
Under is 10-4 in Celtics last 14 Sunday games.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 home games.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 27-12 in Celtics last 39 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.


Head to Head

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
Magic are 6-14 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Boston.
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

could be ugly :sadwave:

:violin:

at least the 2H under was easy money:0corn

 

[BillyBatts]

Updated posted record

34-15 W/L
POD's 11-4

Not going to try to force any plays today, but one stands out.

Locked in

Celts-Magic UNDER 188.5

Won't be a POD, just a regular one unit wager.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings (the one over was because of OT)
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record
Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games as a road underdog
Under is 21-7 in Magic last 28 games following a S.U. loss.



Best of luck today fellas!! :toast:

:bump:


PLus congrats to us Saints backers. :00x9

 

[ReadySetGo]

Nice day Billy.