3 tips to picking winners??

[JBCovers]

First post.
Hi there guys, hope everyone is doing well with their picks. On my end, well, not so well. I'm not sure exactly what I'm doing wrong, but obviously, I take the wrong side WAY too many times. I've been following all the threads for the last few weeks, but it seems if someone has a 4-1 night, I take the 0-1 side of the record. Obviously I don't want to chase my losses with higher stakes, especially with the run I am on, but I did have a couple of questions for the crowd here.

I respect quite a few of the regular posters on this forum for the few weeks I've been here, and I just wanted to ask: how do you do it? I'm looking for what 3 things you guys look for when you pick your winners. Is it recent history, ATS numbers, home court, scoring vs opp. scoring, line movement, % backing each play, or something else completely. I'd love to start capping mayself, but I am wary because I see so many numbers I almost go stupid with all the permutations and calculations, and I just am at a total loss at this point. Any help will be greatly appreciated.

Oh, and good luck everyone with their picks, I will be around to see how everyone is doing, and add my thoughts, if only as a cautionary tale as to what NOT to bet.

 

[bleedingpurple]

I am not expert here by any means.. I have followed many of these hoops picks along with my CPU plays (blindly follow them) I refuse to bet on a team that has covered 3 straight and against a team who has not covered 3 staight.. I usually take them out of the equation except North Carolina and LSU.. These are teams that are either too young or anemic. Tonight everyone loved New Mexico State.. I had won on them the previous games and I figured that if I bet on them my luck would run out..

Now onto following the guys here.. It is tough because everyone will have their ups and downs.. been here 2 years and am just getting comfy with it all. You are just not going to be abel to blindly follow unless you stick with 1 or 2 guys.. I cant tell you exacrly who to follow but guys I watch are Flecther, PittViper (GONE TOUT), Box, Hudson, SEC GURU, Thunder, HiLo Kaiser, Poon, and Full Court Press.. I encourage you to cap the games before you see any of their posts then filter from there. LIMIT YOUR GAMES.. Pick the best 1 - 3 no more than 5 on a Saturday and you should do good. But it has taken me 2 years to figure this out..

 

[luvmy$$$]

BP makes strong points. But I will add...
What works for me but might not work for you is... With hoops you can wager nightly, which can be hell on a bankroll. My wage limits range from 1-2 units, and rare 3-5 units. Like BP i shoot for the best 1-3 games a night. I track a handfull of cappers here, learn their tendencies or style of capping, and try to roll with there positive swings. I don't know chit about hoops or bases, but I do have several sites that I use to check the #'s, and from there put a final unit value on a game.
For football I cap the games myself, and because of limited games, wagers range from 5 to 10 units. Some guys need to see their BR increase in large amounts, I'm happy with earning 10% of my BR over a 30 day period. Daily wagering can be a grind, get used to it.
Ask questions, there are a lot of good peeps at this site.

 

[luvmy$$$]

Just wanted to add. It has taken me 2 yrs to almost grasp capping styles of the cappers I track. You have to remember, certain cappers will favor, favs, doggys, O/U's. Or capp based on trends, local or inside info, wage %'s and just plain sharp or square play. If money came easy, there would'nt be Vegas or books, lol. These guys put some serious time into this, often capping games at midnight to get the best lines and vig. I have to respect these guys for going through an entire card and choosing what they think are the best plays, and then I go and cherry pick just a few. good luck and make sure to thank the ones you tail...:00x1

 

[gsp]

Here's a little betting system that I used to use when I first started out. Come up with what you think is your best three plays. Don't matter how you select them. Straight bet them for 2 1/2 per cent of your bankroll. Par the three for the same amount. When you get 30 units up, double your bets. No matter what cappers you follow, before you place your bets look at the game yourself and try to figure what makes them like that game. As much as I respect some of the guys here at Jack's, I don't make a move until I've looked at the game. Good luck

 

[bej0101]

easy money..follow my picks and fade them!!!!

 

[JBCovers]

Thanks for all the help guys, I have tried today to cap my own games before I looked at anyone else's picks. If you don't mind, take a look at my thinking for tonight:

Looking at tonight's card, I targeted 5 games to look more closely at. Harvard/Yale, Columbia/Princeton, Siena/Niagra, Fairfield/Rider, Manhattan/Iona. Looking closer, I noticed that Harvard had lost 3 in a row ATS, and Princeton had won 3 in a row ATS. So, BP, that throws those games out, leaving 3.

Siena/Niagra: Everything I looked at told me Siena by double digits, making this an easy play. The only question I had: why is this spread so low? I've been burned by what I thought were out-of-whack spreads (the Gonzaga over last night), but I've also been scared off by what I thought were 'trap' spreads (Alabama +15 vs Kentucky). So, I don't know what to think.

Fairfield/Rider: My sense tells me this is pick-em. I do show Fairfield as a very slight favorite, but with Rider at home, I tend to give the edge to them, especially with one point being given, latest odds.

Manhattan/Iona: Another line I like, where i show Iona as a 15+ winner. Not much to discuss on this one, definitely going Iona tonight.

So, my plays would be Siena -4, Rider +1, and Iona -11. Looking at PV's thread, he likes Siena and FAIRFIELD. So that makes me worry about my pick there. Poon and Thunder don't have picks on these games, and Nocatula (another I follow, I like his 'line theory') shows Siena as a pick. So, what now?

Here's my thinking: PV's been on a very slight dip the last week (4-6), although mostly on NBA picks. I'm going against him tonight, taking Rider. I don't see any reason to go against Siena and Iona, except being trigger-shy.

My plays: Siena -4, Rider +1, and Iona -11, 1 unit each. Still not sure about going the parlay route yet, with my recent run. Thoughts?

 

[Security King]

I like your reasoning. I always like to check out Box and one's take on the MAAC. Good topic and BOL.

 

[$portsInvestor]

The most important thing always play what you like,don't listen to anyone else.Yes you could see other peoples postings for reassurance but don't change your play because so and so has the opposite :nono:

 

[Doubledown21]

BP makes strong points. But I will add...

I track a handfull of cappers here, learn their tendencies or style of capping, and try to roll with there positive swings.

Question for you do you ever find a bad capper and bet the opposite? I have done that and made out well. One fellow I used to track was named Glovesetc
have you ever heard of him he is like money in the bank. I picked up a cool 253 units on football before he called uncle. Follow him and do the opposite, it's money.

 

[Security King]

Question for you do you ever find a bad capper and bet the opposite? I have done that and made out well. One fellow I used to track was named Glovesetc
have you ever heard of him he is like money in the bank. I picked up a cool 253 units on football before he called uncle. Follow him and do the opposite, it's money.

DD never thought of using that angle. God knows there are enough cappers out there who lose. I do this as a stress relief from my job. I dont have the time to cap all the games and thank those that do and post their plays. I tip my hat to those that can make a living doing this and money management has to be a big factor. BOL to all.

 

[Doubledown21]

Here is another one that I will start to fade. It's not the same Thunder that posts on this site. Just google., or look on the most popluar BJ forum on the internet under the Marshall Plan. He looks like he is getting ripe for the pickings. With money lines like this how can he win. I smell money.


Thunder
Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,403

Fanatical Friday picks

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Ok yesterday just plain sucked so I'm hoping today will make up for it.

We'll get
NCAA:
Pittsburgh if it goes to 3.5
Montana pick 'em

NHL:
Flyers -165
Devils -153
Penguins -209
Blues -132
Wild -161

 

[JBCovers]

The more things change...

The more things change...

My plays: Siena -4, Rider +1, and Iona -11, 1 unit each.


0-3. :mj13:

 

[s.e.c guru]

There are allot of things I look at or do when i decide who and how much I play on a particular S.E.C. game.
I will touch on a few things.
The best advice I can give you is to
1. know everything about the teams you are betting on.
I only play S.E.C games. There are 12 s.e.c teams that i feel i know as much about as there is to know.
2. Learn their tendencies against each other and never ever bet an s.e.c. team that is in a sandwich situation. Lets say one particular team has rivalry game on Wednesday and a weaker non rivalry game on Saturday with say Kentucky the next Wednesday. Don't bet on that team on Saturday. If any thing take the weaker team plus the points even if the points seem low.
3. Emotion is a tremendous and very under-looked part of college basketball.
4. Be very selective in betting road favorites.
5.Home court advantage is most significant in college basketball than any other sport there is.

these are a few things that I do but there are allot more things like line movement and false information about injuries and such.
FOR INSTANCE. The other night allot of sources that i look at like scores and odds were saying that Devan Downey was very questionable against Florida and probably would not play, yet there was a line on the game at s.Carolina as a 1- point favorite. How many people fell for that. I had SOUTH CAROLINA as a play for that very reason.

Having said all of the above it is extremely tough to beat Vegas and it takes a lot of knowing who you are betting on and luck to do so.

I WISH GOOD LUCK TO EVERY PERSON WHO PLAYS AGAINST VEGAS OR THEIR MAN BECAUSE YOU ARETN GOING TO BREAK THEM.

 

[harlytiger]

I by no means know what I am doing but I do stay to a system...it has taken me 4 years to stick to it due to not many plays, but through out it has paid money.....Problem is I really want to bet everyday and thats when i pick losers....the system is bet on the unranked home Fav vs a ranked DOG.....

I also only pick home teams that are less than 3-4 pt favorites this like other sports takes out the chalk and you can never know if you have a 10+ pt line if the coach will pull the players foul etc...with the 3-4 pts its basically a straight up game and usually home teams do better than road games...

I have two frinds in their second year of gambling they lose weekly what i have learned from them is they always pick the National favorite away favorite and it seems that this is a low percentage play......so go against the public and try to take home games....that has been the most profitable for me.:SIB

Good luck my friend...it takes lots of practice and patents