3-1 so far, thanks Hudson !
Tossed a winner, C FLA due to one elimination factor, but that is OK it has saved me some losses in the past.
JB, I hate paying the extra juice a lot of the time myself, but over a one week span in JAN, this year buying points made the following difference........
Loss to a win: 2 times + 4.8 units
Loss to a push 3 times + 4.2 units
Push to a win 2 times + 1.4 units
Total units saved in a week, 10.4 by buying a small insurance policy of 1 to 2 points.
YES I have reduced many of my winning plays payouts that would have been a winner with out buying points/paying extra juice, but just watch the forum about the moaning and groaning of a lost wager by one half to 2 points and stop and think what that line change might have done for them. Think of what that does for the mental approach to the next days plays????
IF a buy gets me a push instead of a loser, I save 100% of my risk amount.
IF a buy takes me from a loss to a win, I get 170% return, my risk amount plus the wager payout.
This of course is only one factor to success, picking the RIGHT side is VIP, notice I said the RIGHT side not the winning side, sometimes the correct side doesn't win for a multitude of reasons.
Another factor that I feel works for me is My UNIT is the amount that I RISK, not the amount I play to win.
In other words, if I am playing a unit of $100, my standard wager will be 100/91. or $100 to win 91 (90.90 acutally I think) at -110
SO IF I am buying a point and a half, I would still RISK $100.00 but my return would only be 71.40.
Thus I control the amount I put at risk. May sould like funny strategy and math to some but works most of the time for me.
I also shoot for some middles on a game that the number is moving on, by widening the gateway with a buy at both ends, or playing a ML on a favorite that I think is gonna be a close game that is a public favorite.
One of Pitt's game earlier this year comes to mind, I could look up the opponent, but Pitt got the tight win and the DOG + points covered. The BOOK got none of that $$$ at risk.
Another middle was the Idaho total on the 25th of Jan, I had OVER 143 and UNDER 148, with the final total of 144. :00hour
Lot of angles, lot of possibilities, gotta think outside of the box, some of the time. And other times I am my own worst enemy, especially with half time opportunities for middles, I don't hit as large of % with them as I do with game middles, WHY, i haven't figured that out yet, wish I could, maybe too excited with too little time to think it thru right......................
Like Clint said in MAGNUM FORCE, a man's gotta know his limitations :bigun:
Another thing that makes me play this way, is I set a power value for each game, then compare to the line availabe. I then try to respect those values, and tweek them and play into them with a play that maintains a margin for me.
I also compare different books with some books being a little sharper or willing to take a stand on a side or total, thus I pull a little extra edge for my play on the stand being taken with a small buy. The OVER in Sunday's UCLA/USC game was being set up as an OVER by a sharp book.
And last but not least, RESPECT THE LINE, sometimes, OFTEN times the line is WAY off, however many times a game, especially a total with drop so dang close to the line set it is crazy.
Money management, angles, motivation, situations and to a lesser degree in my mind trends, play into all of it also. Recent or current trends carry more value in my mind, than the ones you hear about being 19-7, jeez over how many seasons does a team play another team to get 26 games in, 9-10-13 seasons, are the same players there, is the same COACH even there? What is happening currently is what counts in my opinion, and hey that is gonna change soon it seems.
Regardless, a winner is a WINNAH......
CASH the ticket.........
