College Ball Week 1

[Mr. Poon]

8 long months since the 2009 College World Series ended. Glad to have another season starting up today, especially the early 3:00 (eastern) start for the UVA/ECU game. That is the best matchup this whole weekend as both squads are ranked and have high expectations for the season. First couple weeks will be mostly small plays:

Virginia -120 (@ ECU) for 2 units ? given the #2 Cavaliers return essentially everyone from their ?09 CWS squad, I was surprised this line wasn?t higher. #18 ECU was a very potent offense team last season, but lost a bit of that pop heading into this year. 1B Kyler Roller of the Pirates is still one of the most feared hitters in the country and is on all pre-season All American lists. UVA doesn?t have too much explosive offensive power, but definitely has guys that can flat out hit throughout their lineup. Although the offenses appear pretty even on paper, the pitching edge is definitely favored towards UVA, especially starting pitching. Soph Danny Hultzen takes the mound for the Cavaliers. Hultzen had really good #?s last year as a Frosh (2.17 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; .250 OBA and 107 K?s in 95 1/3 IP). Hultzen isn?t going to intimidate anyone physically, but he is a solid pitcher that knows how to work hitters and get outs. ECU counters with Junior Seth Maness (4.71 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; .287 OBA and 83 K?s in 107 IP). Maness has good control (only 18 BB?s last year) but lacks overpowering stuff needed to get a good hitting team like UVA out consistently. I expect a close game with both squads putting runs on the board, but Hultzen should be able to hold ECU more in check than Maness will.

Will also be playing Rice and SD State as well and will be doing those write-ups now. Figure I should get this one out though due to the early start.

GL guys

 

[GoldenTaint]

Are there actually books offering lines on these?

 

[Mr. Poon]

Rice -130 (@ Stanford) for 2 units - #5 Rice returns 8 position players and those guys should put up very good offensive numbers like they did last year. Rice?s question mark this year is its pitching and it will be looking to its offense and defensive play to lead the way. Stanford?s offense was its undoing last year, hitting a mere .279 as a team as well as having a .360 OBP. Stanford had a really good recruiting class though headlined by Kenny Diekroeger who was a 2nd round draft pick but decided to head to college anyway. Its expected many of the incoming youngsters will be given the opportunity to help Stanford offensively from the get go. Starting pitching is pretty even as two Sophomores oppose eachother. Rice has Taylor Wall going (3.72 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; .243 OBA and 77 K?s in 94.33 IP) while Stanford has Jordan Pries (4.62 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; .228 OBA and 50 K?s in 76 IP). Both of these guys are similar in that they were thrust somewhat unexpectedly into lead roles last year. With a relatively even pitching matchup, a small play on Rice based on their offensive advantage makes sense.

San Diego State +105 (vs. Oklahoma) for 2 units ? Really thought SD State would be favored in this one. The Sooners were by far the better offensive club last year of these two, however they lost quite a bit of that offensive production. They did fill the holes heavily form the juco ranks, so they may not miss too much of a beat. The Aztecs were not a good offensive team but return essentially all of their top hitters and most expect Gwynn?s club to make big strides in that department this season. Pitching is the main reason for my play and the edge that SD State has. Oklahoma will have Zach Neal starting for them. Neal is a juco transfer and was an all-american in those ranks last season posting a 3.21 ERA and 104 K?s in 89 2/3 IP. For the Aztecs Addison Reed moves from the closer role to the Friday night starting role that use to be occupied by Steven Strasburg. Reed was a stellar closer for the team last year posting a 0.65 ERA; 0.98 WHIP; .200 OBA and 38 K?s in 27 2/3 IP. Oklahoma is typically a free swinging club, so Reed?s strikeout ability should come into play in this one.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

Are there actually books offering lines on these?

TheGreek and betus.com have lines up early in the season. 5dimes and sportsbetting.com will also typically have lines up during the season. Of the first two I mentioned TheGreek will have the best odds as betus always seems to tack on an extra 5 to both the fav and dog.

 

[GoldenTaint]

TheGreek and betus.com have lines up early in the season. 5dimes and sportsbetting.com will also typically have lines up during the season. Of the first two I mentioned TheGreek will have the best odds as betus always seems to tack on an extra 5 to both the fav and dog.

Thanks.

 

[Mr. Poon]

1-2 for -2.6 units today, lost the Rice and SD State plays.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Saturday:

Rice -110 (@ Stanford Game 1) for 2 units - similar thinking to the play yesterday. Pitching is pretty even and Rice should be able to put up more runs than they did yesterday.

GL

 

[Mr. Poon]

Lost yesterday's play on Rice. Just hard to fathom that Rice gets swept in its opening weekend and only manages 5 runs per game with all those talented bats. On to today:

Baylor -130 (vs. Georgia) for 2 units - going with the experience starting pitching in this one. Georgia starts Soph Chase Hawkins (4.76 ERA; 1.59 WHIP; .331 OBA and 11 K's in 28 1/3 IP last year). Hawkins pitched in only 9 games last year and 5 starts, however those were all mid-week starts typically against pretty meager competition. Baylor goes with Senior Willie Kempf who did not have a good year stats wise last season (5.22 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; .270 OBA and 61 K's in 58 1/3 IP). Kempf did pitch better down the stretch when he moved into a starter's role last season. Kempf has a decent fast ball but has always struggled with control (0.5 BB's per IP over his career). However, I believe he matches up well against Georgia. So far in their first 3 games, Georgia is showing they are their typical free-swining selfs and not taking many pitches. Especially after a 10-5 win over Duke earlier today, think Kempf can ring up the K's and keep Georgia relatively quiet.

This game is a 3:00 (est) start. Will be playing Fullerton as well and will be doing that write-up now.

GL Guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

Fullerton -120 (vs. Long Beach St.) for 5 units - Surprising 0-2 start so far this season for the Titans. However, when you look at the emotional homecoming of George Horton on Friday and then being blanked by a very good Matt Bywater (Pepperdine) last night, it is a little more explainable. Think they bounce back in a big way here as I believe Fullerton's coach Dave Serrano will have them focussed against a conference foe (for a non-conference game). Tyler Pill will start for the Titans and he did very well last year (4.06 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; .247 OBA and 74 K's in 102 IP). Long Beach sends Branden Pinder to the mound for the start. I don't have much info on Pinder as he is a juco in his first year with the Dirtbags. Didn't pitch much last year in the juco ranks as he was injured early in the season. Long Beach weren't not good offensively last year and in 2 games don't appear much improved plating just 2 runs in each game thus far. This is a much bigger play then I like to do early in the season, but I'm just really surprised by the -120 price. Titans are better in every facet than Long Beach. Pill may be the best Sunday starter in the nation due to the depth of Fullerton's staff. Should be a big blowout.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Hit both plays today as Baylor wins 5-2 and Fullerton wins 8-1. Helps put me in the black after the first weekend.

Updated Record: 3-3 for +2.2 units

Looking at the mid-week schedule, there may be odds on the Wichita/Kansas game on Tuesday (if they even play) and likely the TCU/Baylor game on Wednesday.

 

[Destructor D]

Doubt the Kansas/Wichita State game gets played as we have been enjoying a lot of ice and snow in the Midwest.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Doubt the Kansas/Wichita State game gets played as we have been enjoying a lot of ice and snow in the Midwest.

Yeah, especially with the schools being so close, I'm sure it will be rescheduled to a mid-week date later in the season.

 

[shawn555]

Nice positive first week congrats.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Thanks you guys. I took some CS Fullerton.

I dont think college baseball ranks that high at the Greek though. Its still not graded! :scared

 

[shawn555]

Thanks you guys. I took some CS Fullerton.

I dont think college baseball ranks that high at the Greek though. Its still not graded! :scared

Yeah they graded the UVA game right away but none of the rest yet lol.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Yeah they graded the UVA game right away but none of the rest yet lol.

No complaints. They processed my check request in 10 minutes on a Sunday! $$

 

[Mr. Poon]

with the games not covered as much, and not on a ticker or wire, I'm sure that is the reason it takes them longer. I've noticed this in the past and have called them and they typically take care of it right away.

 

[Mr. Poon]

TheGreek and betus.com have lines up early in the season. 5dimes and sportsbetting.com will also typically have lines up during the season. Of the first two I mentioned TheGreek will have the best odds as betus always seems to tack on an extra 5 to both the fav and dog.

I forgot to mention that though betus typically doesn't have the better price, if you have them as a book, be sure to check them out as I've noticed in the past that if a college line moves (doesn't happen too often due to the limited activity on the games) they are slower to move it and provides some opportunity for better lines at that book.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I'll have to look on their site but I went to place a bet today and the max was to win $200. Is that normal in college baseball?

 

[Mr. Poon]

I'll have to look on their site but I went to place a bet today and the max was to win $200. Is that normal in college baseball?

definitely not, don't know why that would be. I would call them and ask to see if your limits can be increased. Their customer service is good from the fre few times I've had to deal with them.