NBA Sun- 022810-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

BillyBatts

IlliniBill
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Mar 31, 2009
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Getting the thread started early, I have a busy day today so might not be able to contribute to the discussion very much. One play so far:director:

Posted Record
52-34 W/L
18-11 POD's
(7-2 Last 9)

Locked in

Spurs -Suns UNDER 209 POD


Other leans

Bucks +8


Best of luck today fellas !! :toast:
 
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Slicer

Registered User
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Mar 18, 2009
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North Carolina
Early games look tight to the numbers, tough calls. Initial impressions when I saw the lines were both dogs and unders early on Sunday:

Suns & Under
Nugs & Under.

I might just watch though, right now only locking in my personal big play of the day:

Duke/Virginia Over 132 2 units

Late games: liking Sac -3, waiting on the OKC line, anything under 8 and I'm taking OKC.

Might be a light day for me other than the big total tonight on Duke.

Best of Luck to you guys, might tail it, let ya know closer to gametime.
 

BillyBatts

IlliniBill
Forum Member
Mar 31, 2009
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Illinois
Good luck

Good luck

Joe-nice to see ya on that under buddy. Good luck to us. Just wanted to chime in about the lakers game. That line seems awful high considering the Nugs smoked them last game without Carmello. On the national stage, I could see LA putting it to them. I think the over could be a good play though, just my 2 cents.

Good luck with Duke over Slice. May tail ya
 
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Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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Locked in

Spurs -Suns UNDER 209 POD




Take the Air out of the ball !

Trends - Phoenix at San Antonio

ATS Trends

Phoenix

Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Suns are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Suns are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Suns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
Suns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference.
Suns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.
Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.


San Antonio

Spurs are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Pacific.
Spurs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Spurs are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.


OU Trends

Phoenix

Under is 6-0 in Suns last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 5-1-1 in Suns last 7 Sunday games.
Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-2 in Suns last 11 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 7-2 in Suns last 9 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 7-2 in Suns last 9 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 7-2 in Suns last 9 games following a ATS win.
Under is 7-2 in Suns last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 24-9-1 in Suns last 34 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.


San Antonio

Under is 4-0-1 in Spurs last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 5-1-1 in Spurs last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 9-2-1 in Spurs last 12 Sunday games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Spurs last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 3-1-1 in Spurs last 5 home games.
Under is 12-5 in Spurs last 17 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-3-1 in Spurs last 11 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 7-3 in Spurs last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 9-4-1 in Spurs last 14 games following a ATS loss.


Head to Head

No trends available.
 

Slicer

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Mar 18, 2009
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North Carolina
Duke game from a side play is tough, on one hand Virginia is in freefall mode, on the other hand Duke has a "lookahead" to Maryland mid-week, so they can't afford to lose this game.

Based on Va's recent play, I like Duke to win by DD's in a 76-63 type game.

Personally though I love the over, both teams can stroke the 3 and Duke has been "off" in their shooting in the past few games so looking for a good effort from them. Virginia's contribution to the total needs to be a minimum of 60, if they fail to make that I have no hope, but I'm expecting Duke takes them handily and my over clears by 10+ pts.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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but I'm expecting Duke takes them handily and my over clears by 10+ pts.


OU TrendsDuke
Under is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 26-10 in Blue Devils last 36 vs. Atlantic Coast.


Virginia
Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5.
Under is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 overall.
Under is 18-7-1 in Cavaliers last 26 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Under is 49-21-2 in Cavaliers last 72 games as an underdog.
Over is 29-13-1 in Cavaliers last 43 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 22-10 in Cavaliers last 32 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 40-19-2 in Cavaliers last 61 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

 

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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In the shadows
(5) Duke (24-4) at Virginia (14-12)



Sunday, February 28th, 7:45 p.m. (et)

FACTS & STATS: Site: John Paul Jones Arena (15,219) -- Charlottesville, Virginia. Television: FSN. Home Record: Duke 16-0, Virginia 11-4. Away Record: Duke 4-4, Virginia 3-7. Neutral Record: Duke 4-0, Virginia 0-1. Conference Record: Duke 11-2, Virginia 5-8. Series Record: Duke leads, 110-48.

GAME NOTES: The fifth-ranked Duke Blue Devils continue their quest for the ACC regular season title and top seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they must avoid an upset tonight as they take on the Virginia Cavaliers at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville.

Duke took a break from league play on Thursday to post a 70-52 decision over Tulsa. The Blue Devils are 24-4 overall, and they remain atop the ACC standings with an 11-2 record. Maryland is the only team with a realistic shot of denying Duke the outright regular season crown, and those teams will meet on Wednesday in a much-anticipated showdown.

As for Virginia, it has lost six consecutive outings after a promising ACC start. The Cavaliers are now 5-8 in the league, overshadowing a respectable 14-12 overall record. On Tuesday, the club dropped a 74-62 decision to Miami on the road.

Duke owns a commanding 110-48 series lead over Virginia, which includes three straight wins over the Cavaliers.

Duke is not a deep team by any means, as the squad only has three players averaging more than 5.8 ppg. Fortunately, the club does possess one of the nation's truly elite trios. Jon Scheyer leads the group with 18.8 ppg, and the ACC Player of the Year candidate also contributes 5.4 apg. Nolan Smith checks in with 17.9 ppg, and Kyle Singler adds 16.9 ppg and 7.2 rpg. The Blue Devils are generating 79.7 ppg through 28 outings while limiting opponents to 62.1 ppg on 40.5 percent shooting. Duke connected on only 34.9 percent of its field goal attempts against Tulsa on Thursday, but the Blue Devils did earn a 47-37 rebounding advantage and limited the Golden Hurricane to 32.8 percent shooting. The fact that Coach K's club only committed five turnovers also contributed to the win. The "big three" played well as usual, and Smith led the way with 18 points.

Sylven Landesberg is the only player to start all 26 games for Virginia this season, and he is averaging 17.4 ppg to go along with his team-high 74 assists. Mike Scott contributes 12.8 ppg and 7.2 rpg for the Cavaliers, who are netting 67.0 ppg while allowing 63.2 ppg. Virginia only shot 35.1 percent from the floor against Miami last time out, and the club was also outrebounded by a 39-31 margin. The Cavs only trailed by one point at intermission, but they were completely ineffective at the offensive end in the second half. Landesberg did all he could to keep his team close, as he nailed 6-of-8 three- pointers and tallied 27 points. Jerome Meyinsse added 13 points in the setback, and Jeff Jones scored 11 points. Scott missed all seven of his shots and didn't register a single point.

There is no reason to believe that Duke will slip up tonight. This team has a veteran nucleus that is too wise to look past the Cavs and on to the Maryland game.

Predicted Outcome: Duke 79, Virginia 66
 

Slicer

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Ha, thanks Illum for the 2 contradictory posts lol. It's all good, I don't put much stock into trends unless they involve the 2 teams directly and only go back to last season if most of the players are the same as the previous year.

I've watched just about every Duke or as they say in my house "DOOK" game this year and they can be a frustrating team to bet on an over for sure, cause they have adopted carolina's 4 corners strategy at the end of the game. My main theory on this game is that Duke returns to form in shooting % tonight, Virginia doesn't play great defense so I can see Duke putting in the points at will, especially if the 3 ball is hitting.

Just the big 3 for Duke should be good for 60 tonight, I'm counting on 60 from Virginia minimum so I need 12-14 pts from Duke's bench if VA only gets 60.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Aug 30, 2002
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Numbers don't mean shit when they jump for the opening tip !

I post what I find Slice, when I see someone has a play, now and then I put in some info on that play.

That game earlier this week, The Duke Vitales -13

vitale.jpg


I just couldn't play either side

vitale_k_ebay.JPG
 

granpa

Kid at heart
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
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Leans & Locks

Leans & Locks

Getting ready to head out for a bit, but wanted to drop in my 2 cents on todays plays.

Leans:

Denver +6.5
Purdue/MSU O 134.5

Locks:

Rich/Xavier O 136.5

As always GLTA - Granpa:SIB
 

granpa

Kid at heart
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
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Phx/SA

Phx/SA

Locked in

Spurs -Suns UNDER 209 POD


GL with this play Illum.. My only issue is you never know which SA team is going to show up.. the one who held OKC to 87 or Hous to 109.. It seems their offensive/defensive play is based on how they feel when they get up in the morning. I'm stay off this one, but GL to you. Hope you cash..

Granpa
 

granpa

Kid at heart
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
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Richmond/Xavier

Richmond/Xavier

Locks:

Rich/Xavier O 136.5

Winner thanks to O/T :00hour
 

granpa

Kid at heart
Forum Member
Mar 18, 2009
137
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Locks

Locks

Remaining locks for today

Denver +6
Clem/FSU O 133
MSU +4

GL - G
 

Jig-Jag

Registered
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May 3, 2007
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Taken Nets ML, Hawks Under 189.5 and Raps over 206.

That under scares me though, played like 5 overs in a row between At and Mil:scared
 
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