College Ball Week 3

[Mr. Poon]

YTD Record: 10-7 for +3.05 units

Lost my last play as USD got shelled on Tuesday.

UC Riverside +145 (vs. Oregon St.) for 1 unit ? taking a small shot on the dog today as I think Oregon St. is looking past this game to tomorrow?s contest with Arizona St. They are holding back their #1 starter and going with Frosh Matt Boyd in his first start ever. Boyd has appeared in two games thus far this season and not given up any runs over 7 1/3 IP. Riverside is sticking with their #1 guy Soph Matt Andriese. Andriese has been hit hard in his two starts so far having a 8.49 ERA and .327 OBA. Last year he had a 3.93 ERA; 1.25 WHIP; .257 OBA and 37 K?s in 66 1/3 IP. Also he had a good summer in the West Coast League as he received pitcher of the year honors and named the #2 prospect in that league. Oregon State, despite being 5-2, hasn?t swung the bat well hitting only .240 and K-ing more than 8 times per game.

GL Guys

 

[shawn555]

GL Poon I played the exact same thing after line moved up this morning.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Updated Record: 10-8 for +2.05 units

Riverside and Andriese got blown up yesterday. Handful of plays today, hopefully will turn it around.

Arizona St. -150 (vs. Oregon St.) for 2 units ? ASU has a big advantage offensively in this one. They haven?t faced decent competition yet, but the 12 runs per game they have averaged shows their power. The Beaver?s #1 pitcher Tyler Wardon was impressive in shutting down a potent Tennessee club but will likely find the Sun Devils more difficult. Wardon?s tendency to give up the long ball doesn?t bode well in this game. ASU hasn?t announced a starter but it is likely to be Soph Jake Borup. Borup in 2 starts against meager competition has already logged more innings than he did last year. Borup has given up only 1 ER in 11 IP and has 11 K?s. As mentioned in my play yesterday, OSU is free-swinging and had 9 more K?s last night.

Texas -140 (vs. Rice) for 2 units ? Offensively both clubs have struggled early this season. This play is mainly due to pitching and the big advantage Texas has in this one. Texas? starter Taylor Jungmann has continued his brilliant ?09 by giving up only 1 ER in his first two starts (14 IP, 18 K?s). Included in that was blanking a Stanford club last weekend. That is of particular note as Stanford played Rice in the opening weekend and got to today?s Rice starter (Taylor Wall) early in that contest knocking him out after only 3 IP. Wall on the year has a 5.40 ERA in 10 IP. Texas has a extremely deep staff and very good pen too. Add in the fact that Rice swept the two games these squads played last year, and Texas has plenty of motivation to put it to the Owls in their hometown.

As an FYI Texas is up to -175 at thegreek, but still at -140 at betus.

Will be having decent sized plays on Bama and Arkansas and working on those write-ups now. Also looking at a couple more of the west coast games.

GL Guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

Arkansas +110 (@ Cal) for 3 units ? Cal is undefeated and been great at the plate and on the mound but it has been against very very weak competition. They have put up over 10 runs per game and are hitting .400 but won?t come close to that this weekend against a very good veteran Arkansas pitching staff. Senior Mike Bolsinger starts for the Razorbacks and in two starts has only given up 2 ER while racking up 9 K?s in 9 IP. Last year he had a 2.99 ERA and 79 K?s in 69 IP. Despite those K #?s, he?s not too much of a ?power? pitcher but has a really good slider that gets a lot of his strikeouts. Cal sends Soph Erik Johnson who has not given up a run in 14 IP over two starts thus far. Again, this has been against very weak competition. Last year he had a 4.41 ERA; 1.47 WHIP; .269 OBA and 55 K?s in 67 1/3 IP. He also gave up 10 HR?s last year which could prove costly as Arkansas has some real good power in their bats. Johnson pitched against the Razorbacks last year in relief for 1 inning, blowing a 2 run lead in the bottom of the 9th by giving up a 2 run HR. Bolsinger also made a relief appearance last year against Cal, however he picked up a Win while striking out 8 in 4 1/3 IP while giving up only a solo HR. Really surprised Arkansas is at a dog price against a good, but albeit untested Cal team. Really think they take 2 of 3 from Cal like they did last year.

Alabama +110 (@ College of Charleston) for 3 units ? very similar to the Arkansas play. Both clubs are very potent on offense have quite a bit of power. Soph David Peterson gets the start for Charleston and was a Frosh All-American last year despite average #?s (5.73 ERA; 1.52 WHIP; .315 OBA and 47 K?s in 77 IP). Thus far this season he has a 3.12 ERA over two starts spanning 8 2/3 IP and 6 K?s. Soph Adam Morgan opposes him for the Tide. Morgan had a 4.17 ERA; 1.44 WHIP; .275 OBA and 44 K?s in 58 1/3 IP last season. He has 3.27 ERA for his two starts and 17 K?s in 11 IP. I like Morgan?s ability better to go against a power offense, but even if he gets into trouble, the Bama pen has quite a bit more depth than Charleston. Charleston has a great home record the last few years, but I really don?t see Bama losing this one.

San Diego -130 (vs. Kentucky) for 2 units ? Offenses are pretty even, but a big edge goes to USD in pitching. First they were off last night while Kentucky played the Aztecs and had to their pen early (5th inning). Starting matchup heavily favors USD as they throw Junior Sammy Solis who is a potential all-american imo. He has given up 1 ER in 2 starts over 11 IP (10 K?s) this season. Solis was injured early last season after just a couple of starts but appears to be fully recovered and is pitching well. Kentucky counters with Darnell Logan who has a 4.50 ERA in two starts spanning 12 IP (13 K?s). Bit sporadic as he held down a good Coastal Carolina club but got hit hard by Bowling Green. Last year as a Frosh Darnell was a reliever and had a 4.50 ERA; 1.59 WHIP; .285 OBA and 47 K?s in 46 IP.

Fullerton +105 (vs. Arizona) for 3 units ? Though Fullerton?s offense has been stagnant, hoping the 11-4 mid-week win against USD will help get them going. All-american Daniel Renken is the starting pitcher for the Titans, and looks to rebound from a so-far disappointing start having a 4.26 ERA and 0-2 record. He goes against Frosh Kurt Heyer who has a 3.86 ERA and 20 K?s in 11 2/3 IP. However, 13 of those K?s came against a really bad Utah Valley squad. Heyer has talent, but even a weak hitting Fullerton team is going to be his stiffest competition to date. Believe they get to him early and often.

That?s it, no more, GL Guys

 

[shawn555]

Good stuff poon thanks.

 

[Mr. Poon]

good day going 4-2, losing the Fullerton and USD plays, netting +4.6 units. USD got shelled (again) and Fullerton lost in the bottom of the 11th. Would have been nice to get the Fullerton one as they battled back from an early deficit, but a plus day nonetheless.

Updated Record: 14-10 for +6.65 units

 

[Mr. Poon]

Bama -115 (vs. College of Charleston) for 2 units ? Not as a appealing as the dog price yesterday, but still good enough for a team that has a edge in every category in my mind. Junior Jimmy Nelson is the starting pitcher for Bama. He?s pitched well in his two starts this season giving up 2 ER in 10 IP with 8 K?s and only 5 H?s given up. Last year he had an OBA of only .234 but had more average #?s of a 4.54 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Obviously his controls and walks hurt him last year, but he has only walked 1 so far this year so that is a good sign. Charleston counters with Frosh Christian Powell. Powell has only given up 3 ER in two starts over 11 IP with 13 K?s but also 14 H?s. Definitely the most challenging contest he will face and don?t believe he will fare well against the hot Bama bats.

South Carolina +130 (vs. Clemson) for 2 units ? these two clubs are pretty even in my mind, especially offensively and in the pen. Distinct edge in starting pitching goes to the Gamecocks though in my mind. Junior Sam Dyson starts for S. Carolina. and has given up 2 ER in two starts spanning 7 2/3 IP with 11 K?s and only 2 H?s. S. Carolina is limiting his pitches early in the year as he had some minor off-season surgery, hence the reason for not a lot of IP in his two starts. Last year Dyson had a 5.21 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; .237 OBA and 94 K?s in 102 IP. Dyson has been vulnerable to the long ball in this career, so facing a capable Clemson offense he needs to stay away from that. Clemson starts Soph Will Lamb. Lamb also hasn?t had a ton of innings this year getting only 6 1/3 in two outings (1 start). He has given up 1 ER, 5 H?s with 3 K?s. Last year he had a 2.45 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; .256 OBA and 15 K?s in 22 IP. Think Dyson can get the game in control and get it to a very capable Gamecock bullpen to finish the game.

GL Guys. Looking into the later games now.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Sorry, no time for detail write ups on these:

Arkansas -115 (vs. Cal) for 2 units ? Just like Bama going back to the road club that is better all around. Drew Smyly gets the start for Arkansas and is a very capable of holding down the Bears. Erik Johnson didn?t start for Cal last night and their #2 guy went so I?m not sure who is starting for them. Regardless Smyly definitely has an edge over whomever the starter would be.

Florida +155 (vs. Miami) for 2 units ? Frosh Brian Johnson goes for the Gators and is a legitimate talent. Senior Jason Santana goes for Miami and just doesn?t have overpowering or very crisp stuff. Florida has the better offense to boot as well.

Fullerton +100 (vs. Zona) for 2 units ? I?m stubborn and going with the Titans again. Lost a tough one in extra innings last night, but feel they are still getting closer to playing towards their potential. Like the Titans starter Soph Noe Ramirez a lot and he has a ton more talent than Zona?s starter Soph Kyle Simon.

GL Guys

 

[sonyman]

Thanks for all your work.

 

[Mr. Poon]

very good day going 4-1 only missing the Florida play, picking up 6.6 units

Updated Record: 18-11 for +13.25 units

 

[Mr. Poon]

starting off today with:

Bama -105 (vs. College of Charleston) for 1 unit - think this is a good play as pitching matchup again favors the tide, but considering what Bama has already netted me in this series, don't want to give much back if they lose.

Looking into other games now.

 

[Mr. Poon]

also playing:

Fullerton -125 for 2 units - solid complete game outing by Noe Ramirez last night for the Titans has them with a fresh and rested pen. Also the starting pitcher for the Titans (Tyler Pill) is a much better pitcher than Daniel Workman and should rebound from his bad outing from a tough TCU squad last weekend.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Kicking myself on the Fullerton play. Pill didn't start as he pitched long-relief on Friday night. Completely forgot about that and Titans are already down 3-0 after 1.

adding:

Arkansas -120 (vs. Cal) for 3 units - Brett Eibner, one of the best 2 way players in the nation, starts today for Arkansas and is a decent power pitcher that should be able to handle Cal. Not sure who is starting for Cal as their #3 guy pitched last night (after their #2 guy pitched on Fri.). Either their #1 guy is having arm issues and needs a couple extra days of rest or they are going to have to throw someone else. Either way, like Arkansas' chances in that.

TCU -120 (vs. Rice) for 1 unit - Kyle Winkler goes for TCU and is a real good pitcher on a deep TCU staff. Interesting matchup as he faces Boogie Anagnostou, who pitched for TCU back in 2008. After a year at juco, he is now at Rice and thrust into their starting rotation. Rice is playing better since their opening weekend sweep but has still yet to get a win against a quality opponent. Also it is their 5th game this week, so you may see some tired arms out of their pen.

That's it for today, GL guys.

 

[Mr. Poon]

bad day going 0-4. Bama and TCU both blew 1 run leads in the bottom of the 9th. Other two weren't close.

Updated Record: 18-15 for +4.90 units

 

[BobB]

My books dont seem to take college plays. Who do you use?

 

[Mr. Poon]

East Carolina -105 (@ Cal State Northridge) for 5 units ? Decent sized play here as ECU shouldn?t have a problem with Northridge in my mind. Offensively a big edge goes to ECU despite on paper their stats being similar to Northridge. However, ECU has faced much better competition in the young season and has quite a bit more power in its lineup. Northridge was not good defensively last year and this season they have shown no improvement averaging almost 2 fielding errors per game. Starting pitching has two young guys facing off against each other. Northridge is throwing true Frosh Bennett Parry who is making his first collegiate start. Parry has only 1 relief appearance on the season giving up 1 ER in 2/3 IP in an outing against UCLA. Obviously not a lot to judge the kid on but ECU is a much more powerful offense than UCLA so he is likely in for a rough outing. Another thing to keep in mind is that Northridge had a 4 game series this past weekend that just got done on Monday and they used quite a few pitchers in it. That is likely part of the reason Parry is getting the nod here. ECU counters with redshirt Frosh Shawn Armstrong. Armstrong didn?t pitch much last season (6 1/3 IP) and was a medical redshirt. This season he has 2 relief appearances (no starts) and hasn?t given up an ER in 4 1/3 IP with 4 K?s. His two appearances have come against two very good offensive clubs (Virginia and S. Carolina). It would appear he is poised to take over the midweek starting spot for the Pirates.

Bob - sorry, just saw your question today. TheGreek and betus have lines early in the season. Later in the season 5dimes and sportsbetting typically have them as well as others.

GL Guys