NCAA Tournament play-in game: Odds and preview

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NCAA Tournament play-in game: Odds and preview

Arkanas-Pine Bluff vs. Winthrop (-4.5, 117.5)

Game is being held at Dayton, Ohio and can be seen on ESPN 7:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday night.

The annual NCAA play-in game features a pair of low-scoring teams who?ve both posted upsets in their conference tournaments. It is the first NCAA appearance for Arkansas-Pine Bluff while Winthrop is making its ninth trip to the Big Dance.

The winner faces Duke, the No. 1 seed from the South region, on Friday.

Who are these guys?

Arkansas-Pine Bluff lost its first 11 games of the season. You?d think after that type of start the Golden Lions would have packed things in, but that wasn?t the case.

UAPB coach George Ivory actually took a little positive out of the tough start. The Lions only lost those games by an average of 15 points and they played every one of them on the road. They lost to big-name schools like Oklahoma State, Missouri, Kansas State and Georgia Tech during the winless streak.

UAPB played its first three contests on the road when the conference season began but this time it won two of them and ended finishing 14-4 in the SWAC.

No Bluffing

UAPB earned its first NCAA berth beating Texas Southern 50-38 on Saturday in the Southwestern Athletic Conference championship game.

?This means a lot for our school and our fans,? UAPB coach George Ivory said. ?We worked all year to get to the Big Dance and now we can always brag that at least for one year, we got to The Dance.

?We put a lot of pride in our defense and rebounding. We played a tough preseason schedule and it prepared us for playing physical in our league.?

The Golden Lions were seeded second in their conference tourney. They held conference opponents to just 37.3 shooting from the field and were second in the conference in rebounding.

Winthrop, who?

The Eagles are 1-8 in their NCAA Tournament history. They finished the season with an RPI of 162 playing a schedule ranked 242nd in the nation.

The Big South champs knocked off top-seeded Coastal Carolina 64-53 to earn the bid. Guard Reggie Middleton is the lone Eagle averaging double figures (10.3 ppg, 2.9 apg) while center Matt Morgan chips in with 9.6 ppg.

Winthrop defeated Notre Dame 84-74 in the 2007 NCAA tourney and is making its fifth NCAA trip in the last six years. That type of tourney experience led the Eagles to believe they wouldn?t be playing in 64-65 seed game.

?I expected us to go right in and play a No. 1 seed,? freshman guard Robbie Dreher said. ?We?ll use this as motivation.?

They?re no shooting stars

Offensively Winthrop is one of the worst teams in the country. It ranks 295th in the nation in scoring (62.4 ppg.). And, if you think they stink at the free throw line (298th in the nation) watch them build a brick house beyond the arc ? they?re dead last in the country in 3-point percentage.

How did they get in the Big Dance? Well, they played a lot of lousy teams and they suffocated them with a fantastic defensive style.

Winthrop held its opponents to 39 percent shooting from the floor and 29 percent from 3-point range. It ranks 33rd in the nation in scoring defense (61.4 ppg.) Winthrop finished third in the Big South and was 2-2 ATS in the limited games that you could get a line on them. The Eagles will also have a bit of a height advantage up front.

Injury update

Junior point guard Justin Burton was unable to practice on his injured right knee on Sunday. He came down awkwardly on the leg in Big South championship win. Burton had 11 points in 21 minutes of floor time with starter Reggie Middleton on the bench in foul trouble. Burton is questionable for Tuesday?s game.

Trend-setting

Winthrop is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 neutral site games and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 1-4 ATS in its five lined games this season.

It?s been all under for Winthrop recently.

Winthrop has gone under in its last four NCAA Tournament games.

The under is 15-3 in Winthrop?s last 18 games following a straight up win.

The under is also 14-3 in Wintrop?s last 17 neutral site games, 4-1 in Winthrop?s last five non-conference games and 20-8 in the team?s last 28 overall.
 

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Today?s Free Pick
GAME: Winthrop @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff Mar 16, 2010 7:30PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Offered at: 4 betED
REASON FOR PICK: The public is lining up to back Winthrop in this one, likely having not seen either one of these teams play a single game all season.

Many haven't forgotten the Eagles upset win over Notre Dame in the opening round of the 2007 NCAA Tournament, but this is obviously an entirely different team, and a young one at that, with a pair of sophomores and a freshman starting.

Few had even heard of Arkansas-Pine Bluff before Sunday's selection show.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff has all five starters back from last year. The Golden Lions are certainly battle tested after playing all 11 of their non-conference games on the road, with five of them coming against tournament-bound teams. While they did go winless over that stretch, I liked how competitive they were in most games. Most notably, they managed to score 70 and 76 points at Missouri and Kansas State respectively, two tough pressure defenses from the Big 12.

By contrast, Winthrop was held to 66, 57, and 52 points in notable non-conference games against Clemson, Cincinnati, and N.C. State respectively. It's also worth noting that the Eagles had to pull off a sizable upset in their conference championship game against Coastal Carolina. They were listed as nine-point underdogs in that one. They were also listed as the underdog in their semi-final matchup against Radford.

A quote from Winthrop freshman guard Robbie Dreher concerns me.

"I expected us to go right in and play a No. 1," Dreher said. "We'll use this as motivation. The coaches already mentioned them (Arkansas-Pine Bluff) a little. We just have to go up there, get a win and get it over with. Then we'll play Duke"

It sounds to me like this is a team that could already be looking past the Golden Lions. That would be a mistake.

Take Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
 

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NCAA Basketball Picks

NCAA Basketball Picks

NCAA Basketball Picks
Winthrop vs. AR-Pine Bluff
The Eagles come into the play-in game looking to take advantage of an Arkansas-Pine Bluff team that is coming off a win over Texas Southern in the SWAC final and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win. Winthrop is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 9.

Dunkel Pick: Winthrop (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, MARCH 16
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (3/15)
Game 567-568: Winthrop vs. AR-Pine Bluff
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 51.690; AR-Pine Bluff 42.757
Dunkel Line: Winthrop by 9
Vegas Line: Winthrop by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winthrop (-4 1/2)
 

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Preview:
Winthrop vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff
When: 7:30 PM ET, Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Where: Dayton Arena, Dayton, Ohio

Overall

Team Offense

The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are ranked 270 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 41.1% while attempting 52.5 shots per game.

The Golden Lions shooting percentages include 66.3% for free throw percentage and 30.4% for three point percentage so far this season.

The Winthrop Eagles are ranked 332 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 38.5% while attempting 58.8 shots per game.

The Eagles shooting percentages include 63.9% for free throw percentage and 26.5% for three point percentage so far this season.

Home and Away

The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions are 8-1 at home this season, and 17-4 against 0-11 opponents.

At home the Golden Lions are averaging 69.2 scoring, and holding teams to 58.2 points scored on defense.

The Winthrop Eagles are 6-11 while on the road this season, 15-6 against conference opponents, and 4-7 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Eagles are averaging 59.6 scoring, and holding teams to 63.8 points scored on defense.
 

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Trends - Winthrop vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Trends - Winthrop vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Trends - Winthrop vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff

ATS Trends

Winthrop

Eagles are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games.
Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog.
Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog.
Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.


Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Golden Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Golden Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.


OU Trends

Winthrop

Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 7-1 in Eagles last 8 neutral site games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 games as an underdog.
Under is 15-3 in Eagles last 18 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 14-3 in Eagles last 17 neutral site games.
Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 20-8 in Eagles last 28 overall.


Arkansas-Pine Bluff


No trends available.

Head to Head

No trends available.
 

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Winthrop favored in Play-In Game

Winthrop favored in Play-In Game

Winthrop favored in Play-In Game

About the last thing on the mind of the coaches of Winthrop and Arkansas Pine-Bluff early in the season was a NCAA Tournament game. The Eagles from Rock Hill, S.C. started the year 5-9 and the Golden Lions were 9-14 in the middle of February. However, tournament bids from the Big South and SWAC are earned by winning basketball games at the right time and each school did what they needed to survive and advance.

Winthrop (19-13) is the known commodity in this event, having been at the Big Dance five of the last six years, which included a memorable victory over Notre Dame three years ago. The Eagles were flying down the stretch, winning 14 of last 18, playing stifling defense, holding opposing teams to 39.7 percent shooting.

This helps overcome some real deficiencies in putting the ball in the basket, where they convert only 38.3 percent from the field and are dead last in the entire country in three-point shooting (not just the tourney teams) at 25.5 percent. It figures Winthrop had the Big South Defensive Player of the Year Mantoris Robinson, who can wipe the ball from offensive counterpart and block shots.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff (17-15) deserves a great deal of credit for courage. This senior-heavy team played their first FOURTEEN games on the road, five against teams in this field and a couple that just missed. Coach George Ivory was a miracle worker not to lose this squad after 0-11 start.
The Golden Lions are also modest offensively, averaging 64.4 points per game, with their leading scorer Terrance Calvin at only 10.4 points per game.

Winthrop is a 3.5-point favorite and because of each team?s offensive ineffectiveness, the total has tumbled from 116 to 113 at Bookmaker.com.
The best bet for the play in-game might be the total, as neutral court teams with a horrible offensive team, averaging less than 63 points a game (Winthrop), against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 UNDER the last 13 years.

ESPN has this contest starting at 7:30 Eastern from Dayton, with the winner moving on to face top seeded Duke.

Power Line ? Winthrop by 7
 
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