Final Four Betting Trends & Notes

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Final Four Betting Trends & Notes

The Final Four teams in the 2010 NCAA Basketball Tournament might not be the exact grouping that you or I had projected, but nonetheless, there is plenty of drama and intrgiue concerning the matchups. For bettors, the biggest questions surround the pointspread, and for some of the answers, at least those concerning recent betting history at the Final Four, we've prepared a Trends & Notes piece. Good luck.


Since the ?98 title game, in Final Four weekend games where seed #?s are not equal, the better seed owns a 18-8 SU & 19-7 ATS mark, for 73.1%. There has only been one game in that span in which the winner did not cover, that being Connecticut over Duke in ?04 semifinals.

Final Four weekend Favorites of 3-7.5 points are on a 16-5 SU & ATS (76.2%) run since ?99.

In terms of seeds, the #3?s own the best ATS record of any other since ?87, going 13-7 ATS (65%).

Seeds of #4 or worse that reach the Final Four are only 1-8 SU & ATS (11.1%) thereafter since ?99 when not playing one another.

#1 seeds that have matched up with a lesser seed in the semifinals and final game have gone 13-4 SU & ATS (76.5%) over the L12 years. When favored by less than 8-points in such games, they were 10-2 SU & ATS (83.3%).

The ACC owns the best record of any power conference that has reached the Final Four since ?98, going 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS (75%) in the semifinal and final rounds of the tournament.

Non-power conferences, or those rated ?B? or below, are 2-5 SU & ATS in their appearances in Final Four weekend games since ?98.

In the championship game, only two underdogs have won SU and/or ATS this decade (2-8, 22%), Syracuse (over Kansas in ?03), and Kansas (over Memphis in ?08).

Now, here's more

It?s onward to Indianapolis for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2010 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to consider before our Fab Four takes a final spin in Circle City this weekend. All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Enjoy?

FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

? #1 Seeds that are 4-0 ATS in this tourney are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS (Duke)
? #2 Seeds are 1-7 ATS off a DD ATS win (West Virginia)
? Teams off BB SU dog wins are 2-8 ATS (Butler)
? ACC teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2002 (Duke)
? Big East teams are 0-3 ATS since 2004 (West Virginia)
? Teams with the greater win percentage are 8-2 ATS L5Y (Butler and Duke)
? Returnees from last year in this round are 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (Michigan St)

CHAMPIONSHIP NOTES

? #1 Seed favs are 6-1 ATS
? #2 Seeds are 0-5 ATS off an ATS win
? #5 or worse Seeds are 0-3 SU & ATS
? Favorites of 5 < pts are 10-1 ATS
? Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final 4 round are 4-1 ATS
? Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 0-4 SU & ATS
? Teams off 5 straight Tourney ATS wins are 4-1 ATS
? Teams that have scored the most points in the tourney are 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS
? Underdogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS
? Big East teams are 3-0 ATS
? ACC teams are 9-2 ATS
? Big 10 teams are 1-6 ATS

COACH ME UP

? Butler?s Brad Stevens: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as an NCAA tourney favorite? 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS versus Big 10 opponents? 41-2 SU at home, including 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS versus Big 10 opponents.

? Duke?s Mike Krzyzewski: 39-4 SU versus .750 or less opponents and 14-11 SU versus greater than .750 foes, including 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite in this tourney? 5-1 SU and 4-2 in Final Four games and 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in NCAA championship games.

? Michigan State?s Tom Izzo: 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS versus Horizon League competition? 21-5 ATS versus opponent off SU and ATS win in this tourney? 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in Final Four and 1-1 SU and ATS in championship games in this event.

? West Virginia?s Bob Huggins: 9-7 SU and ATS versus ACC opposition, including 3-1 SU and ATS in this tourney? 1-5 ATS as a dog in this tourney? 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS versus .718 or less opponents ?but- 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS versus .724 or greater foes in this tourney.

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played the last 20 years. I hope you?ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have. I?ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ?Dance?.

 

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Duke entices early bettors in Final Four

Duke entices early bettors in Final Four

Duke entices early bettors in Final Four

Butler favored to beat Michigan State, face Duke or West Virginia in championship game

Duke is college basketball's closest equivalent to the New York Yankees.

Many love the Blue Devils. Many hate the Blue Devils. When it comes to the sports betting public, however, Duke is nothing short of revered.

"There's no anti-sentiment against them in betting," said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook. "They are backed by the public when they're playing as a favorite. They garner a lot of respect."

Duke already is drawing that kind of support this week at the Hilton, where the majority of the early money has come in on the Blue Devils as 2.5-point favorites against West Virginia in Saturday's Final Four game in Indianapolis.

Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, is not surprised. He said LVSC came up with the 2.5-point spread anticipating more action on Duke.

"As far as the betting public, we know with a gun to their head to take Duke or West Virginia, they are going to take Duke seven times out of 10," Seba said. "We thought they would draw more money than West Virginia. We felt like they had to be the favorite."

The Duke game will be Saturday's second semifinal, following the early game between Butler and Michigan State.

Butler is posted as 1.5-point favorite at the Hilton and nearly every other sports book across the Las Vegas valley.

Seba said the reason for that line was simple ? Butler is the better team.

"We just thought that Michigan State was really lucky to get to where they are now," Seba said. "They had so many close wins in the tournament. We feel like Butler was more impressive with how they got there."

Butler and Michigan State both are No. 5 seeds, making their game the lowest seeded Final Four matchup in nine years.

Michigan State took advantage of a relatively easy path to the Final Four as the highest seed it faced was No. 4 Maryland in the second round. Butler, however, knocked off both No. 1 Syracuse and No. 2 Kansas State last weekend.

Seba said if it weren't for Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, who has advanced to six Final Fours in 12 years, Butler would be a larger favorite.

"It's a coaching mismatch with Izzo being there and having the experience," Seba said. "Without that, I think it's a three or four-point favorite for Butler."

Butler also will have an advantage with the games being played in Indianapolis. The Bulldogs' campus is less than six miles from Lucas Oil Stadium.

For Seba, everything points toward a Butler victory.

"I think Michigan State should have lost to Maryland," Seba said. "Butler doesn't get intimidated and doesn't lose their cool. That's one good thing about this team."

As for a Duke-bias, well, Seba doesn't have one.

"Personally, I like West Virginia," Seba said. "I just think they are playing better than anyone right now."

Final Four Props

The Hilton released its list of Final Four proposition bets Tuesday afternoon.

The Hilton is offering 14 props on each of the two national semifinal games. Some of the wagers include largest lead of the game (over/under 12.5 for the Butler game, over/under 13.5 for the Duke game); total three-point shots made (over/under 11.5 for the Butler game, over/under 12 for the Duke game); and a handful of player props.

Sherman said he remembered some of the free-throw props being popular during last year's Final Four. This year the Hilton posted a prop asking gamblers whether or not Michigan State's Durrell Summers would miss a free-throw in the game against Butler.

The "yes" is at a price of +140 (risking $1 to win $1.40) and the "no" is at -160 (risking $1.60 to win $1). Summers is an 80 percent free-throw shooter and averages about two per game.

"There will be a lot of ooh-ing and aah-ing whenever he gets to the free-throw line," Sherman said. "People like stuff with the names they recognize."

 

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Michigan State vs. Butler Betting Preview

Michigan State vs. Butler Betting Preview

Michigan State vs. Butler Betting Preview

The first semi-final of the Final Four is the most unusual pairing since No.11 George Mason was matched against No. 3 Florida in 2006. Though we weren?t really certain just how good the Gators truly were until a couple days later, at least they were among the top 12 seeds in that tournament. This year, Michigan State and Butler are a pair of five seeds, which happens to be the lowest matchup of seeds since fifth-seeded Florida faced eighth-seeded North Carolina ten years ago.

Doing it the Izzo way

Michigan State (28-8, 15-20 ATS) is trying to return to national championship game and has had quite a journey. In this tournament alone, the Spartans have wins by 1, 2 and 3 points and ?beat down? of Northern Iowa by a whole seven points. Michigan State players do deserve props for making it this far, since it would appear unlikely that any of the other three teams still playing college basketball would be here if they lost their leading scorer like Tom Izzo?s team did in Kalin Lucas.

The Spartans are 19-8 ATS in all neutral court games over the last three seasons and will have to follow the same formula that got them to Indianapolis. Durrell Summers is averaging 22 points in last three contests, scoring from inside and out. Raymar Morgan has more picked his spots, but made a volume of buckets when his team needed it most. Draymond Green is big body that is difficult to maneuver on either side of the floor and is among the reasons Michigan State outrebounds teams by 8.7 per contest. Korie Lucious has stepped his game taking over the point and though he makes the occasional head-shaking turnover, he?s been an exceptional facilitator and has a feel when to take the right shot. The Spartans are 15-6 ATS away from home having won four of their last five games over the last two years.

Bulldogs believe in the ?Butler Way?

Cinderella doesn?t get to this dance scrubbing floors, which by why Butler (32-4, 16-20 ATS) is not a fairly tale. The Bulldogs have won 24 consecutive games (13-11 ATS) with a staunch defense, not having surrendered more than 59 points in the tournament and doing so just once in previous 12 encounters. This makes them difficult to beat as a coach that has faced Butler noted.

?They?re the best late-game defensive team I?ve played against, with switching and making all the right decisions. They?re really good in late-game decisions both offensively and defensively. I was really impressed. Everything they do is so solid.?

Butler is up to 7-3 ATS in the NCAA?s and while Brad Stevens looks like Tom Izzo?s unpaid assistant in charge of taping opposing teams games, this dude can coach. He?s put together this smothering help-defense and brings calmness, as you don?t see Butler players wide-eyed when the opponent makes a surge.

Sophomore point guard Ronald Nored said this, ?If you beat us, it won?t be because you rattled us.?

Butler will experiment with four guards and Gordon Hayward against the Spartans to see how they adjust. This offense has given the Bulldogs a quickness edge which opens up the lane for different players to take their man off the bounce or run ?pick and rolls? or ?pick and pops? in isolation sequences.

This is close

Sportsbook.com has Butler as one-point favorites, with total of 126.
Coach Stevens has a motto made for texting-TGHT- which stands for, The Game Honors Toughness. Butler showed their ?onions? giving away leads to Syracuse and Kansas State, before bulling the neck and putting each team away in the final minutes. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in consecutive contests and 7-1 against the number when seeded 5th to 8th in the NCAA tournament. They are 8-0 OVER on a neutral court floor when the total is 129.5 or less, however the crowd will be far from neutral with hometown team getting the support from locals.

Michigan State is 29-15 ATS in all their NCAA appearances over the last 13 years and is 8-1 ATS as a neutral court underdog of six points or less or pick and are 25-11 UNDER versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds a game on the season after 15 or more have been played.

The excitement swells until 6:05 Eastern tip, with Final Four squads off two upset victories like Butler 2-8 ATS.

Power Line - Butler by 3

 

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Final Four debate: Who will win and cover?

Final Four debate: Who will win and cover?

Final Four debate: Who will win and cover?

The field of 65 is down to just four teams. Our experts have followed each regional throughout the NCAA Tournament and now go head-to-head in Covers.com's Final Four debate.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Butler Bulldogs (-1, 126), 6:05 p.m. ET

Why Butler will win and cover ?

(West Regional)

Butler will defeat Michigan State Saturday behind its tenacious man-to-man defense. That defense has held all four tournament opponents under 60 points ? teams that averaged 80.9 (Syracuse), 79.7 (Kansas State), 76.5 (Murray State) and 75.3 (UTEP) points per game during the regular season.

Ronald Nored isn't just Butler's top defender; he was one of the best scoring-stoppers heading into the Dance. Nored locked down Jacob Pullen in the win over Kansas State, limiting him to 14 points on 4-for-13 shooting. With Kalin Lucas out, the Spartans don?t have any players with Pullen?s scoring prowess.

But the Bulldogs are going to get killed on the glass, right? Wrong. Butler crashes the boards as a team and was undersized in its last game but still out-rebounded K-State by nine boards.

Home-court advantage will be a factor (17 minutes from campus) and you can bet every fan waiting on the Duke-West Virginia game will be rooting for the Bulldogs. And don?t forget this squad is riding a 24-game winning streak.

Only overtime will keep this contest from going under the total, but that's unlikely as Butler will build a lead and maintain it throughout the game.

Prediction: Butler 64, Michigan State 56

Why Michigan State will win and cover ?

(Midwest Regional)

Facing Butler means experiencing the rare feeling of being a road team at the Final Four.

Few people outside of the Great Lakes State will be rooting for Michigan State Saturday. The Bulldogs, winners of 24 straight games, are the hometown favorite and small-school darling.

Michigan State has been without its top player, point guard Kalin Lucas. Two other major contributors, the hobbling Chris Allen and Delvon Roe, are playing through pain.

And yet, here the Spartans are.

Michigan State hasn?t lit the world on fire during the NCAA Tournament, winning its four games by a combined 13 points.

And yet, here the Spartans are.

How? Two words: Tom Izzo.

The Spartans have been here before. This is their sixth Final Four in 12 years. This year, as in years past, MSU simply finds a way.

Butler is favored by one point, but MSU was an underdog against Maryland and Tennessee, too.

Butler will struggle with the physicality and athleticism of the Spartans. It will be tough to contain 6-foot-6 forward Draymond Green, 6-foot-8 forward Raymar Morgan and 6-foot-4 guard Durrell Summers.

The game will again rest in the hands of point guard Korie Lucious, who has taken over successfully for Lucas. If he can perform as well as he did in the last two rounds, the Spartans may disappoint much of the nation.

Prediction: Michigan State 66, Butler 64

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2, 131), 8:45 p.m. ET

Why Duke will win and cover -

(South Regional)

Brian Zoubek, Lance Thomas and Miles Plumlee highlight a Blue Devil's inside game that is defensively sound and crashes the boards arguably better than any other team in college basketball. Duke ranks 12th in the nation in rebounding margin (plus-6.8), including an 11.3-margin in the tournament.

It was assumed Baylor?s big men had a slight advantage over Duke?s only to be out-muscled and constantly harassed as the Blue Devils, who grabbed 22 offensive boards, out-rebounded the Bears.

On the outside, it looks like senior guard Jon Scheyer is getting his shooting touch back. After Scheyer made less than 21 percent of his field goals through the tournament?s first two-and-a-half games, he is shooting nearly 50 percent from the field since halftime of the win over Purdue.

Scheyer is absolutely on fire. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, they must face Duke?s standout guard at perhaps the most inopportune time.

While this is West Virginia?s first Final Four since 1959, Coach Krzyzewski?s Blue Devils have reached this round for the 11th time in 25 seasons. Above all, when Duke gets to the Final Four, the Blue Devils generally make it to the championship game, winning six of their last seven national semifinal games.

Although Duke hasn?t played for a national championship in nine years, you can?t keep a great program down for long, especially when it?s stout defensively, well conditioned, and has more heart than any other team in the field.

Prediction: Duke 67, West Virginia 59

Why West Virginia will win and cover -

(East Regional)

This messed-up tournament has left us with four equally unspectacular teams. Any of the four could win it all. But West Virginia will.

The Mountaineers have made a living of wearing teams down with a physical, harassing defense and a relentless attack on the backboards. They?re very similar to Michigan State, with one exception ? Da?Sean Butler.

The senior star is the best player left in the field and completely capable of willing West Virginia to the title.

But it won?t be easy.

I respect Duke more than I did before the tournament. The Devils withstood serious body blows from Purdue and Baylor to reach the Final Four. Obviously, they?re very well coached and, in close games, they have a major advantage at the foul line.

But it?s hard for me to shake the memory of Georgetown pummeling the Blue Devils in late January or Villanova crushing them in last year?s tournament. West Virginia is stronger than both those teams.

If the Mountaineers get past Duke, they?ll be a small favorite in the title game over either Michigan State or Butler. If I?m Bob Huggins, I?d rather face Michigan State than Butler and its growing bandwagon in Indianapolis.

Either way, I expect the Mountaineers to cut down the nets Monday night. They might not look pretty doing it, but this isn?t a beauty pageant.

Prediction: West Virginia 78, Duke 73

 

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Michigan State vs. Butler

Michigan State vs. Butler

Michigan State vs. Butler


NCAA Tournament Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Butler Bulldogs (-1, 126), 6:05 p.m. ET

Spartan fighters

Tom Izzo has now taken Michigan State to a whopping six Final Fours since 1999, but this run has to be the wildest and most improbable of all.

The Spartans have won three of their four NCAA Tournament games by three points or fewer (70-67 over New Mexico State, 85-83 over Maryland, and 70-69 over Tennessee). Against the Terrapins, MSU lost star point guard Kalin Lucas to a torn Achilles and trailed by one point in the waning seconds, but Korie Lucious -Lucas? backup -nailed a 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Additional adversity is still coming in the form of injuries, as guard Chris Allen (torn ligament in his right arch) and forward Delvon Roe (knee) are dealing with their own physical problems. Allen?s recent practices have involved only shooting and Roe faces offseason surgery.

So far the Spartans (28-8, 15-20 ATS) have overcome everything. Perhaps that?s part of the reason why Butler coach Brad Stevens called Michigan State ?one of the great, if not the greatest program in the country over the last 12 years?, in an ESPN interview earlier this week.

But as if all of that isn?t enough for the Spartans, they now have to face a Final Four opponent that is playing in its home city. In fact, Butler is the first team since UCLA in 1972 (Final Four in Los Angeles) to enjoy such an opportunity.

24 in a row

Butler has won an incredible 24 consecutive games (12-12 ATS) heading into Saturday?s national semifinals. The Bulldogs have not lost since a December 22 trip to UAB, where a 67-57 setback dropped them to a pedestrian 8-4 mark.

111 days later, Butler will charge into Lucas Oil Stadium at 32-4 (16-20 ATS).

The last time a Tom Izzo-coached team faced an opponent on such a win streak was in the 1999 Final Four, as Duke rode a 31-game surge at the time. Michigan State succumbed to 68-62 to the Blue Devils.

These Bulldogs do not feature NBA lottery picks at multiple positions like those Blue Devils, but the Spartans know what Butler is all about.

?They're not mid-majors,? Roe told the Grand Rapids Press. ?You learn when you play these teams not to underestimate them, or you'll end up like the other teams they played this year: out.?

?I'm sure their confidence is sky high,? Lucious noted. ?They're going to be real confident because I'm sure they don't want their winning streak to be snapped. So they're going to come out with intensity and we're going to match it.?

Painter of the picture

Purdue faced Michigan State twice this season and shares the state of Indiana with Butler, so Boilermaker head coach Matt Painter is familiar with both participants in Saturday?s first Final Four showdown.

?Butler will push, but they're selective,? Painter said in a Wednesday teleconference. ?If it's there, they go. If they get a wide-open shot in transition, they take it. But if not, they make you play and break down.

?But Butler doesn't get the credit they deserve for how tough they are and how good a defensive team they are.?

No team has reached the 60-point mark against the Bulldogs so far in this NCAA Tournament.

Painter, whose team won at Michigan State 76-64 on February 9 before losing to the Spartans 53-44 at home on February 28, said Saturday?s game will be a ?race to 60.? In other words, the team that gets to 60 points first wins.

Common opponents

The Bulldogs faced three teams from the Big Ten during the regular season?Northwestern away, Minnesota on a neutral court and Ohio State at home. Butler handled the Wildcats 67-54, fell to the Gophers 82-73 and upset Ohio State 74-66.

Michigan State swept Northwestern with ease, went 2-1 against Minnesota (lost in the conference tournament) and dropped a 74-67 home decision to Ohio State.

Both Michigan State and Butler also faced Valparaiso. The Spartans destroyed Valpo 90-60 at home on November 22. The Bulldogs pulled out a 74-69 road victory on February 26.

Trending topics

The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games at neutral sites (and this is, technically, a neutral site). They are also 25-10-1 in their last 36 NCAA Tournament contests.

The Bulldogs are 7-3 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against Big Ten opponents.

Both Michigan State (16-18 O/U) and Butler (15-19 O/U) have leaned just slightly toward the under this season. The under is 8-1 in Butler?s last nine overall, but the over is 8-0 in MSU?s last eight against the Horizon League.

 

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West Virginia vs. Duke

West Virginia vs. Duke

West Virginia vs. Duke

NCAA Tournament Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2.5, 131), 8:45 p.m. ET.

The other Butler

Butler University, which is not only the official host of the Final Four but also an unlikely participant, is not the only ?Butler? in town this weekend in Indianapolis.

Da?Sean Butler, of course, is West Virginia?s star player and senior leader. The 6-foot-7 forward (17.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.3 apg) boasts some impressive numbers, but his value extends far beyond the stat sheet.

Butler has hit six game-winning shots in the final seconds this season and he did it twice in the Big East tournament. Tied with the clock ticking down against Cincinnati, Butler delivered a miracle 3-pointer at the buzzer. Butler then drained an off-balance, contested runner to beat Georgetown 60-58 in the championship.

?I can tell you right now from watching two games of tape, Butler one of best players in the country,? gushed Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski. ?He?s a great player and a clutch player. Nobody has hit as many big shots as this kid. He loves the moment.?

?When your best player is the best person and unquestionably is your hardest worker you?re going to be good,? WVU coach Bob Huggins said during Monday?s Final Four conference call.

Butler was named a Second Team All-American by the Associated Press earlier this week. So, too, was Duke?s own Jon Scheyer.

Brothers in arms

Nobody is going to confuse this Duke team with any of the most talented Krzyzewski has ever coached, but these Blue Devils are not relying on basketball skills alone to get the job done.

?This team will really be brothers forever,? Krzyzewski told the Durham Herald Sun. ?It's as close a team as I've had. They?ve been spectacular to coach.?

?We have a genuine love for each other,? added senior Lance Thomas. ?We know that we need each other to win. Not one guy is going to lead us to victory in a game.?

With that love comes an acceptance of roles, embodied by Thomas himself. The 6-foot-8 forward scores a mere five points per game, but his eight offensive rebounds against Baylor made the undisputed difference in last weekend?s South Region final.

On a team that sees three players (Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith) combined for 53.2 ppg, Brian Zoubek contributes only 5.4 ppg (still good four fourth on the team). No matter, though, because the 7-foot-1 center has grabbed 35 rebounds in Duke?s past three NCAA victories.

?I think people have grown into knowing the value of their roles,? Krzyzewski noted. ?They take value from what we see as value, but that takes maturity. These kids are very mature, so they understand that.?

Defense wins championships

West Virginia has limited six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 points. Even though Kentucky eclipsed that mark for 66 in the title game of the East Region, the Wildcats shot an unbelievably bad 4-of-32 from three-point range and turned the ball over 16 times.

?We don?t like being scored on,? forward Devin Ebanks told the Times West Virginian. ?We try to limit everybody?s scoring and limit their touches. It?s fun knowing that you can shut the other person down and outrebound the other team, just outman them, out-tough them. It?s a fun way to play.?

Duke has held three of its four NCAA Tournament opponents to fewer than 60 points (Baylor scored 71). The Blue Devils have not allowed more than 74 points since giving up 89 to Georgetown on January 30. Ten of their last 15 opponents have not reached 60 and four of their last 10 opponents did not even pass 50.

Common opponents

The Blue Devils went up against three teams from the Big East during the regular season?Connecticut on a neutral court, St. John?s at home and Georgetown in Washington. Duke dispatched the Huskies 68-59, beat St. John?s 80-71 and trailed Georgetown almost the entire way in an 89-77 loss.

West Virginia fell at Connecticut 73-62, crushed St. John?s on the road 79-60 and swept Georgetown (81-68 at home on March 1, 60-58 two weeks later in the Big East tournament final).

The one other common opponent this season was Long Beach State. The Mountaineers eased their way to an 85-62 road win back in November and the Blue Devils?at home?scored a similar 84-63 victory over the 49ers.

Trending topics

The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their four NCAA Tournament games, 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference contests and 5-1 ATS in their last six against ACC opponents.

The Blue Devils are also 4-0 ATS during this NCAA Tournament, but they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven against Big East opposition.

West Virginia (15-19 O/U) has been a decent under play this season and the under has definitely been the way to go with Duke (15-22 O/U). The under is 7-1 in WVU?s last eight overall and 4-1 in Duke?s last five overall.

 

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Preview:
Michigan St vs Butler
When: 6:05 PM ET, Saturday, April 3, 2010
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Butler Bulldogs are ranked 88 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 44.9% while attempting 50.1 shots per game. The Bulldogs shooting percentages include 73.9% for free throw percentage and 34.5% for three point percentage so far this season.

The Michigan St Spartans are ranked 22 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 47.2% while attempting 56.3 shots per game. The Spartans shooting percentages include 68.8% for free throw percentage and 34.3% for three point percentage so far this season.

Home and Away

The Butler Bulldogs are 15-0 at home this season, and 20-0 against 12-4 opponents.

At home the Bulldogs are averaging 72.5 scoring, and holding teams to 58.3 points scored on defense.

The Michigan St Spartans are 8-4 while on the road this season, 14-5 against conference opponents, and 14-3 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Spartans are averaging 67.9 scoring, and holding teams to 64.0 points scored on defense.

 

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Trends - No. 5 Michigan St vs No. 5 Butler

Trends - No. 5 Michigan St vs No. 5 Butler

Trends - No. 5 Michigan St vs No. 5 Butler

ATS Trends

Michigan St


Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog.
Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Spartans are 25-10-1 ATS in their last 36 NCAA Tournament games.
Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.
Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. Horizon League.


Butler

Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games.
Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
Bulldogs are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.


OU Trends

Michigan St

Over is 8-0 in Spartans last 8 vs. Horizon League.
Over is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Spartans last 4 neutral site games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 neutral site games.
Under is 26-10 in Spartans last 36 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 30-12-1 in Spartans last 43 games as an underdog.


Butler

Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 Saturday games.
Under is 8-1 in Bulldogs last 9 overall.
Under is 8-1 in Bulldogs last 9 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 6-1 in Bulldogs last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-1 in Bulldogs last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 non-conference games.
Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Over is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.
Over is 11-5 in Bulldogs last 16 neutral site games.


Head to Head

No trends available.

 

[Lumi]

Preview:
West Virginia vs Duke
When: 8:45 PM ET, Saturday, April 3, 2010
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana



Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The Duke Blue Devils are ranked 137 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 44.0% while attempting 59.6 shots per game. The Blue Devils shooting percentages include 76.1% for free throw percentage and 38.2% for three point percentage so far this season.

The West Virginia Mountaineers are ranked 178 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 43.1% while attempting 57.9 shots per game. The Mountaineers shooting percentages include 70.3% for free throw percentage and 33.6% for three point percentage so far this season.

Home and Away

The Duke Blue Devils are 17-0 at home this season, and 16-3 against 17-2 opponents.

At home the Blue Devils are averaging 85.9 scoring, and holding teams to 59.5 points scored on defense.

The West Virginia Mountaineers are 7-4 while on the road this season, 16-5 against conference opponents, and 15-1 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Mountaineers are averaging 74.8 scoring, and holding teams to 70.5 points scored on defense.

 

[Lumi]

Trends - No. 2 West Virginia vs No. 1 Duke

Trends - No. 2 West Virginia vs No. 1 Duke

Trends - No. 2 West Virginia vs No. 1 Duke

ATS Trends

West Virginia

Mountaineers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Mountaineers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
Mountaineers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog.
Mountaineers are 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 NCAA Tournament games.
Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.


Duke

Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
Blue Devils are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Blue Devils are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big East.


OU Trends

West Virginia

Under is 7-1 in Mountaineers last 8 overall.
Under is 7-1 in Mountaineers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 7-1 in Mountaineers last 8 neutral site games.
Under is 6-1 in Mountaineers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 19-7 in Mountaineers last 26 games following a ATS win.
Over is 11-5 in Mountaineers last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.


Duke

Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 non-conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 6-2 in Blue Devils last 8 Saturday games.
Under is 19-7 in Blue Devils last 26 neutral site games as a favorite.
Under is 19-7 in Blue Devils last 26 neutral site games.
Under is 13-5 in Blue Devils last 18 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 7-3 in Blue Devils last 10 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 9-4 in Blue Devils last 13 vs. Big East.
Under is 27-13 in Blue Devils last 40 games following a ATS win.


Head to Head

No trends available.

 

[Lumi]

NCAA Basketball Picks

NCAA Basketball Picks

NCAA Basketball Picks
Michigan State vs. Butler
The Spartans look to take advantage of a Butler team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a neutral site favorite. Michigan State is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

SATURDAY, APRIL 3
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (4/1)
Game 819-820: Michigan State vs. Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 71.763; Butler 69.873
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 2
Vegas Line: Butler by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+1 1/2)
Game 821-822: West Virginia vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 72.899; Duke 78.428
Dunkel Line: Duke by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-2 1/2)

 

[Lumi]

CBB | (821) W VIRGINIA @ (822) DUKE | 04/03/2010 8:35 PM
Play ON W VIRGINIA using the money line in Road games against ACC opponents
The record is 6 Wins and 1 Losses since 1997 (+13.05 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBB | (821) W VIRGINIA @ (822) DUKE | 04/03/2010 8:35 PM
Play ON DUKE using the money line in All games in all neutral court games
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.60 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBB | (821) W VIRGINIA @ (822) DUKE | 04/03/2010 8:35 PM
Play ON W VIRGINIA against the spread in Road games in a NCAA tournament games
The record is 16 Wins and 2 Losses since 1997 (+13.80 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBB | (821) W VIRGINIA @ (822) DUKE | 04/03/2010 8:35 PM
Play ON W VIRGINIA against the spread in All games in a NCAA tournament games
The record is 16 Wins and 2 Losses since 1997 (+13.80 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBB | (819) MICHIGAN ST @ (820) BUTLER | 04/03/2010 6:05 PM
Play UNDER BUTLER on the first half total in Road games after a non-conference game
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last two seasons (+10.80 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBB | (819) MICHIGAN ST @ (820) BUTLER | 04/03/2010 6:05 PM
Play UNDER BUTLER on the first half total in Road games after a non-conference game
The record is 1 Overs and 9 Unders this season (+7.90 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBB | (819) MICHIGAN ST @ (820) BUTLER | 04/03/2010 6:05 PM
Play AGAINST BUTLER in the first half in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 8 Wins and 20 Losses this season (-14.00 units)

 

[Lumi]

Butler (32-4) vs. Michigan State (28-8)

Butler (32-4) vs. Michigan State (28-8)

Butler (32-4) vs. Michigan State (28-8)



Saturday, April 3rd, 6:07 p.m. (et)



FACTS & STATS: Site: Lucas Oil Stadium (71,300) -- Indianapolis, Indiana. Television: CBS. NCAA Tournament Record: Butler 12-9, Michigan State 52-22. Series Record: Michigan State leads, 13-10.

GAME NOTES: "Cinderella" is alive and well in this year's NCAA Tournament, as the Butler Bulldogs make their first-ever appearance in the Final Four when they tangle with perennial power Michigan State this Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Butler, which is located in Indianapolis, will be the first team to play in a Final Four in its hometown since UCLA did so back in 1972. The Bulldogs, the No. 5 seed out of the West Region, are riding the nation's longest winning streak at 24 games, last losing at UAB on December 22, 2009. Butler, under the tutelage of third-year coach Brad Stevens, went 18-0 in the Horizon League this season, and won the conference tournament as well. Its 32 wins on the year is both a school and league record. Stevens, who has amassed a record of 88-14 since taking over at Butler, has won the most games in Division I history in his first three seasons.

Butler, which topped the likes of UTEP (77-59), Murray State (54-52), Syracuse (63-59) and Kansas State (63-56) in the tournament thus far, has won 117 games over the past four seasons to set a school and Horizon League record for most wins in a four-year period. The Bulldogs are playing in their fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament and their seventh in the past decade, and they own an all-time tourney record of 12-9.

As for Michigan State, there isn't a more successful team in the country [of late] in terms of Final Four berths, as coach Tom Izzo's club has appeared in six of the last 12 national semifinals. Every four-year player recruited by Izzo has appeared in at least one Final Four before leaving East Lansing.

The Spartans, the No. 5 seed out of the Midwest Region, are 28-8 this season, and their four NCAA Tournament victories over New Mexico State, Maryland, Northern Iowa and Tennessee have come by a combined 13 points -- the lowest total margin of victory of any team to reach the Final Four since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. MSU, which is 7-0 all-time in NCAA Tournament games played in Indianapolis, has two national championships to its credit (1977 and 2000), with the 2000 title won in this very city.

Michigan State is 13-10 all-time against Butler, and the last meeting between the two schools took place on December 20, 1971 in Indianapolis where the Spartans defeated the Bulldogs, 77-71. This is the first time the two have met in the NCAA Tournament, and the first time two No. 5 seeds have squared off in the Final Four.

Both teams rely on some pretty stingy defensive play to achieve their goals, with Butler allowing an average of 59.8 ppg, and Michigan State 64.1 ppg. BU senior forward Willie Veasley noted the similarities between the two teams. "Both teams are very defensive minded. Our focus is defense, and their focus is defense. When their star player [Kalin Lucas] got injured, they had different guys step up. They regrouped from top to bottom. And I've seen that with us. When Gordon (Hayward) or I had to miss a game this season, we've just had different people step up."

Offensively, the Bulldogs boast four double-digit scorers in the starting lineup led by Hayward and his 15.2 ppg. The leading rebounder for the team as well (8.3 rpg), Hayward is a 47.1 percent shooter who has also done a solid job at the free-throw line (.819). Shelvin Mack (14.1 ppg, 3.1 apg), Matt Howard (12.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Veasley (10.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg) round out the productive quartet, helping Butler put up nearly 70 ppg, hit 45 percent of its total shots, 34.6 percent of its three-point attempts and 74 percent of its free throws.

Hayward spoke about the respect he and the rest of the Bulldogs have for the Spartans. "They are just a great team. For us, I don't know if it's as much about the matchups as much as it is about us knowing their personnel. That's been a huge key for us this whole tournament, knowing personnel. You need to know what the other players are doing so you don't have to guard as much. For us, that's really big. I have to credit our coaches for doing such a great job."

Mack continued Hayward's sentiment. "They remind us alot of ourselves. They have similar size. It's just a good opportunity for two physical teams to go out there and play. I think the biggest thing is to come out and play with our hearts. They are going to play as hard as we are, so we need to be willing to do things like sacrifice our bodies for loose balls and rebounds."

Few gave Michigan State a chance to reach the Final Four once Lucas went down with a leg injury in the second-round game against Maryland. The loss of their leading scorer (14.8 ppg, 4.0 apg) meant other guys would need to step up for the Spartans, who average 72.4 ppg on 47.2 field goal accuracy this season. Raymar Morgan (11.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Durrell Summers (11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg), the MVP of the Midwest Regional after averaging 20 ppg, are the only other active double-digit scorers for Izzo's club, although Draymond Green (9.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Chris Allen (8.5 ppg) aren't far off the pace. All will need to bring their "A" game if MSU is to survive this encounter with an extremely dangerous Butler squad.

Izzo knows his guys has their work cut out for them, particularly in trying to break through the tough defensive job typically turned in by the Bulldog backcourt. "I've been really impressed with both guards.", Izzo said. "I've been really impressed with what seems likes an opening here, and all of a sudden, boom, they close it up so quick. They do not extend. They play a lot like -- I'd say it's more of a team that the guards, like when we had Cleaves and Bell, they play a lot of inside out. But they just don't give you many looks and openings."

Izzo continued his praise of Butler. "I love Butler. I love (coach) Brad (Stevens). I think he's done an incredible job. I really like their players and what they stand for."

Izzo noted that the lack of identifiable star power in the Final Four means a more team-oriented approach is necessary to win it all. "I do think when you look at the four teams that are in it, there's a lot of good players, but I wouldn't say anybody is relying on one player as much. For the most part, I think you got four teams that have earned their way here by probably playing good defense. If there's ever a year when maybe there's some of the four better defensive teams in it, I think this would be the year."

Butler, with its underdog persona, is the darling of this tournament, but there's something to be said for the experience and never-say-die attitude of Michigan State. Expect a close game, with both teams trading blows throughout. In the end, the Bulldogs will prevail behind yet another stellar defensive effort and some clutch shooting down the stretch.

Predicted Outcome: Butler 68, Michigan State 65

 

[Lumi]

West Virginia (31-6) vs. Duke (33-5)

West Virginia (31-6) vs. Duke (33-5)

West Virginia (31-6) vs. Duke (33-5)



Saturday, April 3rd, 8:47 p.m. (et)


FACTS & STATS: Site: Lucas Oil Stadium (71,300) -- Indianapolis, Indiana. Television: CBS. NCAA Tournament Record: West Virginia 24-22, Duke 92-30. Series Record: Duke leads, 17-7.

GAME NOTES: Having successfully navigated the NCAA Tournament field to reach the Final Four, West Virginia and Duke will square off in Indianapolis on Saturday night, with the winner earning the right to take on either Butler or Michigan State for the national title on Monday.

The Duke Blue Devils won the South Region with impressive victories over Arkansas-Pine Bluff (73-44), California (68-53), Purdue (70-57) and finally Baylor (78-71). With the win over the Bears, Duke advanced to its 15th all- time Final Four and 11th under head coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils rank fourth in NCAA Tournament history with 92 tournament victories, with their .754 winning percentage (92-30) ranking first all-time. Duke and Mike Krzyzewski won their first NCAA championship in 1991 in Indianapolis.

Bob Huggins' Mountaineers will do their best to end Duke's run. Second-seeded West Virginia has fought through tournament adversity with the loss of its starting point guard in this event, but still won the East Regional by ousting top-seeded Kentucky in the Elite Eight, 73-66. The win capped off a brilliant run through the East Region that saw victories over Morgan State (77-50), Missouri (68-59) and Washington (69-56) as well. Unlike Duke, West Virginia's Final Four resume' is a little light, with this year marking just the second appearance in school history and the first since 1959. That year, West Virginia made it to the championship game led by Jerry West before falling to California, 71-70.

This is the 25th meeting between these two teams, with Duke holding a 17-7 series advantage, thanks to wins in nine of the last 13 meetings. This is the third time these squads will have met in NCAA Tournament play. Duke posted a 70-63 win in the second round of the 1989 event, while West Virginia returned the favor (73-67) in the second round in 2008.

Sophomore point guard Darryl Bryant has been a integral part of West Virginia's success this season, but a broken bone in his right foot suffered in practice last week will probably keep him sidelined the rest of the way, a thought coach Huggins is starting to warm up to.

"Stranger things have happened, but I'd be shocked if he did (play)."

Without Bryant in the lineup, Huggins has inserted Joe Mazzulla among the starting five. This is a team however, that still revolves around the electric play of guard Da'Sean Butler. The senior is tops on the team in scoring (17.4 ppg) and assists (117), is tied for the lead in steals (36) and ranks third in rebounding (6.3 rpg). Forwards Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks give the team a pair of solid frontcourt options. Jones is converting 52.4 percent from the floor, while averaging 13.7 points and 7.2 rpg. Ebanks adds 12.0 ppg and is tops on the team in rebounding (8.2 rpg). The Mountaineers shot 57.1 percent from the floor in the second half and took advantage of Kentucky's cold shooting (4-of-32 from behind the arc) in winning the East Region and advancing to the Final Four. Butler led four Mountaineers in double figures with 18 points. Mazzulla came up big as well, pouring in 17 points, while Jones and Ebanks chipped in with 13 and 12 points, respectively.

West Virginia's magical season is something that the players are very conscious of, including Jones.

"This is definitely a special time to be from West Virginia University. It's a special opportunity and we're going to take it as such. We're going to go out there and play our hearts out for the team and the university."

Duke has also achieved a great deal this season and its 33 victories are a testament to the team's group effort, something that Coach K is extremely proud of.

"It's not about the moments that I've been in, it's the moments that your players put you in right now," Krzyzewski said. "I'm really happy for this group...It's as close a team as I've had. You want great things to happen for people who are great with us."

The Blue Devils didn't exactly shoot the lights out against Baylor in the Elite Eight, but offset a .361 performance from the floor by converting 11 three-pointers to earn the victory and move on to yet another Final Four. The backcourt tandem of Nolan Smith and Second-Team All-American Jon Scheyer was simply unstoppable, combining for 49 points against Baylor. Smith was 9-of-17 from the floor for a career-high 29 points. Scheyer hit five three-pointers and finished with 20 points. One glaring problem in the game was the play of standout forward Kyle Singler, who missed all 10 of his shots and finished with a mere five points. Despite the poor performance, Singler is still both a potent scorer and rebounder, averaging 17.6 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Scheyer and Smith are as productive a backcourt as there is in the country. Scheyer is both a prolific scorer (18.2 ppg, 104 three-pointers) and deft distributor (183 assists, 4.8 per game). Smith can also fill up the basket (17.4 ppg).

WVU's Butler is aware of Duke's dangerous trio.

"They do all the right things, and do what their coach asks them to do, and are successful for it. "They've beaten a lot of good teams to be here, and their big three are very good. They do a lot of scoring, and the other two starters do all the dirty work."

Still, this game will come down to fundamentals and rebounding will be a huge key.

"You have to be determined to play missed shots," Krzyzewski said. "I don't know how many teams in the United States rebound more than 40 percent of their misses like both of us do."

The Big East received a lot of hype this season and West Virginia is carrying the conference banner into Indianapolis. However, the ACC was thought to be a little weak this year and the Blue Devils are probably playing with a bit if a chip on their shoulders. Look for Scheyer, Smith and Singler to be the difference here, carrying Duke to the championship game.

Predicted Outcome: Duke 73, West Virginia 67