Baseball?s real Opening Day

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Baseball?s real Opening Day

The made for TV part of the beginning of the baseball season was last night, today we move ahead to the 13 parks stuffed with fans, the aroma of people grilling a collection of wonder foods and everyone is in good mood because baseball is back. This is yet another sign that warmer weather and outdoor activities are on the way and the local nine has yet to disappoint one person, plus the activity of watching scores from out-of-town ads to the experience. Let the romance begin with five nationally televised games.

St. Louis at Cincinnati 1:10E ESPN

No better place to start baseball than in Cincinnati, the first professional baseball team that started way back in 1869, then known as Red Stockings. While no one expects this Cincinnati team to start the way their predecessor did (the Red Stockings won 130 consecutive games from 1969-70), the Reds have good young talent with the likes of Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.

Aaron Harang makes his fifth consecutive Opening Day start and believes he?s made enough mechanical tweaks to fix what has caused him to lose 31 total games the two years. Harang is 7-10 with 4.54 ERA against St. Louis.

The Cardinals are favorites to win the NL Central, with the best hitter in baseball in Albert Pujols, now backed with coverage for the entire season by Matt Holiday. St. Louis also has arguably the best pitcher in the National League in Cris Carpenter who gets the start. The Cy Young runner-up last year is also making his fifth start in an opener and is 7-3 with low 2.11 ERA against the Reds.

Sportsbook.com has the Cards as -150 money line favorites, with total Un7.5. Carpenter is 39-22 in road games in the first half of the season in his career. This is the first time these two teams have squared off in game one of a new season since 1994.

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox 2:05E ESPN2

The Indians are being picked last in the AL Central by many baseball experts. That doesn?t mean the Indians are devoid of talent with CF Grady Sizemore, DH Travis Hafner, Shin-Soo Choo, SS Asdrubal Cabrera and players dripping with potential in Matt LaPorta and outfielder Michael Brantley. Pitching is the big concern in Cleveland and Jake Westbrook is the game one starter for the first time is five seasons. The Tribe is +160 money line road underdog with total at Un9 and Westbrook is 11-28 on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5. (Team's Record)

The White Sox open 2010 more athletic and presumably better defensively. They also have four very good starting pitchers which is why they should be competing for the division title. One of them is Mark Buehrle, making his franchise-record eighth Opening Day start, previously shared with Billy Pierce. The left-hander threw a perfect game last season and set a Major League record of 45 straight batters retired. Beuhrle is 76-46 all-time at U.S. Cellular Field and is 82-41 as a favorite of -125 to -175. (White Sox Record)

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta 4:10E ESPN

The Cubs and Braves enter 2010 with buoyed enthusiasm. Chicago got rid of clubhouse cancer Milton Bradley and added Marlon Byrd and Xavier Nady to their outfield mix, looking for more production. Manager Lou Pinella is hoping the injury bug stays away and that a 15 pounds lighter Carlos Zambrano can rebound from off year. Chicago is a +115 road dog and was undesirable 8-27 as an underdog of +100 to +150 last season, however Cubs fans could be mildly optimistic since Big Z is 41-20 as visitor when the total is 8.5 to 10. (Cubs Record)

Atlanta made bullpen modifications they believe will lead to more victories in skipper Bobby Cox swan song season. The venerable Cox likes his starting pitching and is excited about 20-year-old phenom Jason Heyward who brings power and speed to the Braves. Atlanta is 93-57 UNDER in the first half of the season over the last two seasons and Derek Lowe will be the Braves first hurler to toe the rubber.

San Francisco at Houston 7:05E ESPN2

The Giants look to take the next step after startling 88-win campaign and be in the hunt for division crown. Having back to back Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is a wonderful place to start and the front office thinks Mark DeRosa and Aubrey Huff will help the offense generate more runs, after averaging only 4.1 per game in 2009.

The best news out of Houston is new manager Brad Mills is earning glowing praise with his positive energy, however not one game has mattered yet. The pitching staff has been bolstered with Brandon Lyon, Brett Myers and Matt Lindstrom. Unfortunately, Lance Berkman begins the year on the DL. The Astros will have Roy Oswalt making his eighth consecutive Opening Day start, but his club is 2-5 in those contests despite a solid 3.35 from the right-hander, whose been nursing a sore left hamstring.

Houston is a +115 money line home underdog with total Un7.5, nonetheless the ?Stros won all eight of Oswalt?s assignments against the NL West last season. San Francisco has to be considered dangerous anyways, with 40-22 mark when a -150 favorite or less and Lincecum is 2-0 with 1.67 ERA vs. Houston.

Minnesota at L.A. Angels 10:05E ESPN2

Only one game features division champions on Opening Day and that is in Anaheim with Minnesota beginning with the Angels. These two squads are different than a season ago, one presumably for the better and the other to be determined.

The Twins have a new combination up the middle with sportstop J.J. Hardy and 2B Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome returns to the AL Central as DH for Minnesota. Scott Baker is off a 15-win season, reestablishing himself as the masthead of the staff and he earns the Twins opening start. Baker is 0-4 in six starts in Anaheim with 5.59 ERA. The late innings will look a lot different for Minnesota fans with Joe Nathan gone for the year, setting up bullpen by committee with Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch and Jesse Crain.

The Angels suffered some real blows in losing John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins to other American League clubs and look to pick up the prices adding Joel Pineiro, Hideki Matsui and Brandon Wood in their places. The new lead-dog for the Halos is Jered Weaver, who is a laid-back Cali type, a far cry from Lackey?s bulldog tendencies. Nevertheless, Weaver is 27-12 at the Big A and big reason why the Angles are -140 money line choice with total listed at Ov7. The Twins were 27-11 UNDER in the in the first half of the last season.
 

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MLB | (917) CLEVELAND @ (918) CHI WHITE SOX | 04/05/2010 2:05 PM
Play OVER CHI WHITE SOX on the total in All games as a home favorite of -150 to -175
The record is 25 Overs and 7 Unders for the last three seasons (+17.95 units)
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MLB | (913) SAN DIEGO @ (914) ARIZONA | 04/05/2010 5:10 PM
Play OVER SAN DIEGO on the total in Road games when playing on Monday
The record is 65 Overs and 27 Unders since 1997 (+36.00 units)
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MLB | (913) SAN DIEGO @ (914) ARIZONA | 04/05/2010 5:10 PM
Play OVER SAN DIEGO on the total in Road games when playing on Monday
The record is 12 Overs and 1 Unders for the last three seasons (+11.10 units)
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MLB | (917) CLEVELAND @ (918) CHI WHITE SOX | 04/05/2010 2:05 PM
Play ON CHI WHITE SOX using the run line in Home games vs. division opponents
The record is 45 Wins and 28 Losses for the last three seasons (+29.40 units)
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MLB | (903) FLORIDA @ (904) NY METS | 04/05/2010 1:10 PM
Play ON FLORIDA using the money line in Road games against division opponents
The record is 24 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (+18.05 units)
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MLB | (903) FLORIDA @ (904) NY METS | 04/05/2010 1:10 PM
Play ON FLORIDA using the money line in Road games against division opponents
The record is 43 Wins and 28 Losses for the last three seasons (+27.42 units)
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MLB | (913) SAN DIEGO @ (914) ARIZONA | 04/05/2010 5:10 PM
Play ON SAN DIEGO using the money line in All games when the total is 8 to 8.5
The record is 33 Wins and 23 Losses for the last two seasons (+20.82 units)
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Opening Day betting trends

Opening Day betting trends

Opening Day betting trends

Opening Day is the only day of the season where every team starts out even in the standings. Every team, yes even the Royals and Pirates, believes it has a shot at the postseason and is eager to prove it.

Does that mean some teams perform better than others on this special day?

Maybe.

Here?s a look at some of the more interesting Opening Day trends.

Road regulars

Normally the Pittsburgh Pirates open on the road, a tradition dating back to their home field of more than 100 years ago, Exposition Park, would often flood in April. The Pirates opened on the road every year from 1894-53.

This year marks the first season since 2005 the Bucs have opened at home, and just the 22nd time since 1954. The Pirates are 10-11 opening at home since then, and have lost the four of their last five and eight of their last 11 season openers at home dating back to 1979.

Meet your Mets

The Mets are 31-9 on opening day since 1970. They?ve also hold the longest current opening day winning streak (four in a row).

Good things come in four

Four teams have won more than 60 percent of their home openers historically- Toronto (75.7 percent), the Yankees (66 percent), Seattle (63.6) and the Mets (60.4).

Cin City

While Cincinnati has traditionally opened the baseball season, the Reds are only 52-56-1 historically in their home openers and have lost three of their last four.

More trends

-The Rays have lost eight of their last nine road openers.

-Barack Obama will throw out the first pitch at the Nationals? opener against the Phillies. Home teams are 6-3 the last nine times the President has thrown out the first pitch, dating back to Bill Clinton christening Jacobs Field in Cleveland in 1994.

-The Athletics sport the longest opening day losing streak in the majors, five games (2005-09) while the Phillies hold the longest opening day losing streak in the National League, four games (2006-09)

Opening day starters

-CC Sabathia is mediocre at best on opening day- 1-1, 5.34 ERA lifetime in six opening day starts. He faces Boston?s Josh Beckett in the April 4 opener at Fenway Park. Beckett is 2-1 lifetime on opening day with a 1.59 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings pitched.

-Derek Lowe threw a two-hitter through eight innings last year in a 4-1 win against the Phillies for his first opening day victory. But lifetime he is 1-4 with a 5.33 ERA on opening day.
 

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Monday?s best MLB bets

Monday?s best MLB bets

Monday?s best MLB bets

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels (-133, 8.5)

The Angels open a new season with many projecting a step back for the three-time defending AL West winners. Los Angeles lost two major parts when Vladimir Guerrero and John Lackey jumped ship.

While Guerrero?s production had been slipping for years, Lackey was the Halos? unquestioned No. 1 starter.

"It definitely has importance, has significance," Angels manager Mike Scioscia told the L.A. Daily News about having a staff leader. "As you get into a pennant race and hopefully the playoffs, you'd obviously like to have that guy you can count on to go on the road and win a big game. John was that pitcher."

Jered Weaver, who was named the team?s opening day starter, doesn?t look at the situation in the same light as his manager.

"It sucks to see Lackey go, but that's the business side of the game, and that's how it works sometimes," Weaver said. "But we have five guys here who are legit. Guys who have pitched in playoff situations, guys who have pitched in big games."

Expect Sciosia to be extra aggressive on the base paths and get some early run support for Weaver.

Pick: Over

Seattle Mariners at Oakland A?s (+114, 7)

Did the Athletics? weak-hitting lineup just get weaker? In a surprise move the A?s cut their leading home run hitter in each of the past three seasons, Jack Cust.

"I think it's messed up," Cust told The San Francisco Chronicle on Saturday. "They're going to go on 50 at-bats after three years of what I've done here? It's ridiculous. A lot of other guys have had bad springs. This is a joke.?

Cust?s spring was certainly forgettable. The designated hitter notched just one homer and three RBIs to go along with 20 strikeouts in 50 at-bats.

"The fact is, this team has no power and they've just released a guy who (averaged 28 homers) the last three years. That's amazing."

The San Francisco Chronicle reports the plan is to shift former Gold Glove winner Eric Chavez to DH.

Yuck. It?s going to be another long season for Oakland fans.

Pick: Mariners
 

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Best and worst MLB pitchers to bet

Best and worst MLB pitchers to bet

Best and worst MLB pitchers to bet on


Baseball begins this week and below is a list of play-on and play-against pitchers for the 2010 MLB season.

Five pitchers to back:

Wade Davis (Tampa Bay Rays)

This fifth starter made six starts last year for the Rays, going 2-2 with a 3.72 ERA on the season. Davis started his career giving up one run on three hits against the Tigers in seven innings of work last September. While he did struggle against the Red Sox in his next start, Davis gave up just six earned runs in his last four starts of the season against the likes of Baltimore, Seattle and the Yankees. It should be noted that Davis has an 8.80 ERA in spring training but he?s been tinkering with new pitches.

Brian Matusz (Baltimore Orioles)

The bandwagon is full for this tall left hander as a good spring training has backed a nice finish to his 2009 season. Matusz is 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA in five outings this spring striking out 19 while walking only three batters.

Homer Bailey (Cincinnati Reds)

This phenom?s career couldn?t be more helter-skelter. Bailey spent 2007 and 2008 getting smacked around going 4-8 in 17 games over those two seasons. Last year, he improved a bit going 8-5 with a 4.53 ERA. Bailey has made three outings this spring giving up just four runs in 11.2 innings pitched. While his strikeout numbers aren?t very gaudy (3), he seems to have fixed his walk problem that plagued him earlier in his career.

Ricky Nolasco (Florida Marlins)

Nolasco spent some time in the minors last season and it seemed to clear his head. While the 5.06 ERA last season is unsightly, he still managed to go 13-9 striking out 195 while walking only 44. This spring, Nolasco is 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA in five starts striking out 21 while walking only one batter. Ricky seems to be in midseason form already.

Luke Hochevar (Kansas City Royals)

Much like Homer Bailey, Hochevar has been inconsistent throughout his career. The right hander is 13-26 with a 5.88 ERA in 51 starts over his career. Still Luke has shown flashes of brilliance. He?s 0-1 with a 3.94 ERA in four starts this spring. This is purely a speculative play as I feel that the Royals will be a team on the rise and for that to happen, Luke will have to lead the charge.

Four pitchers to fade:

Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies)

While we don?t like telling people to fade the Phillies at any time, this left hander?s inconsistency presents opportunities to jump on a juicy runline. Hamels is a Top-5 pitcher when he wants to be. The lefty went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA last year allowing batters to hit .273 against him. This spring hasn?t been much better as he?s gone 1-1 with a 5.57 ERA over five starts. Hamels has given up 11 runs in 10.1 innings of work his last two outings and pitchers are supposed to improve instead of regress the closer the season comes.

Cliff Lee (Seattle Mariners)

Of course the injury helps us here, but I feel like even when he gets healthy, the left hander will be fade material. Lee expressed dismay at his trade from Philly to Seattle and has already been suspended once during spring training. In two starts, Lee has given up 11 hits and five runs during 5.2 innings of work. Lee?s move back to the American League could be a struggle this season. I feel like the Mariners may not live up to expectations.

Vicente Padilla (Los Angeles Dodgers)

The Dodgers named this right hander as their opening day starter and I?m not quite sure why. Seven months ago, this head case was released by a pitching starved Ranger team and went to L.A. where he experienced some success. Padilla?s been tattooed a bit during the spring giving up 19 hits and 10 runs in 14.1 innings of work as hitters are ringing him up to a tune of .306 BAA. I just don?t feel safe backing him in games where he will be pitted against other aces.

Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore Orioles)

Guthrie had one of the worst seasons of his short career last year going 10-17 with a 5.04 ERA. The right hander hasn?t been much better during the spring giving up 19 runs and 28 hits in 20.2 innings of work. Not only that, the righty has walked 13 batters as well.
 
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