MLB TUES 04132010 - Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[40seven]

YTD: 33-21-1...62.0% (+10.26U)

1U = $25....all my plays are one unit unless noted

Mon (6-1 +5.2 units)

Money Lines(18-10)
Run Lines(3-2)
Run Kines 5Inn (0-1)
Totals(11-7-1)
Team Totals(1-1)

 

[40seven]

What is Value? (posted Regularly)

What is Value? (posted Regularly)

In baseball it is the weight of how often do you think you will get the outcome you believe adjusted for the odds provided.

If the Nats played today at +180. If you believe they have a 50/50 chance at winning you have value in the wager.

Never bet a game just for the odds if you do not believe a team has a greater than 50/50 chance at winning you should never bet them no matter the odds. To play a large favorite you need a large chance of winning. Keep in mind the worst team usually wins 1 of every 3 games.

There is no value in playing a team over-185, it may win and may be a good play but not a value play

That is why you are looking for the one or two plays a day that can make some money.

From now until May 6 I will just be fooling around and logging info so I can start really narrow it down.

Again BOLTA and welcome to the discussion.

I like to post this often to remind of my goal often I get into a lot of picking which lead to a lot of the losses

 

[40seven]

Back soon

Back soon

Back in a bit with leans but please join in

 

[hogman14]

There is no value in playing a team over-185, it may win and may be a good play but not a value play

47.
disagree w/this a bit. opening day halladay was -200. yes it was vs. the nats, but there was great value in this play, imo. gonna be hard priced to see him cheaper. new league, new lineup, stud.

agree with everything else though. what constitutes "value" with some players is different with others. some value pitching over offense, and vice vers. some value bullpen too much or not enough. it should all come together to make an educated evaluation of the day's lines. sabermetrics has thrown a wrench into it all.

btw great day yesterday :toast:

 

[40seven]

I like the board

I like the board

Mostly for totals plays today. The sides are chalky.

Unders

Mets Rocks
Zona Dodgers


Overs

KCR Tigers
Reds Fish
Pirates SFG

I do like the Dodgers the Tigers and the Yank's early but cannot play the chalk

 

[40seven]

The number's support me

The number's support me

47.
disagree w/this a bit. opening day halladay was -200. yes it was vs. the nats, but there was great value in this play, imo. gonna be hard priced to see him cheaper. new league, new lineup, stud.

agree with everything else though. what constitutes "value" with some players is different with others. some value pitching over offense, and vice vers. some value bullpen too much or not enough. it should all come together to make an educated evaluation of the day's lines. sabermetrics has thrown a wrench into it all.

btw great day yesterday :toast:

I understand your view, but it comes back to one reality what is the chance of the Nat's winning a game. IMHO it will never be less than a 30% chance in baseball 3 of 10 so at -190. If I win 7 times at -190 I win 368.41 plus I get me investment back of 700. So I profit 68.41:0corn

 

[40seven]

Daytime plays

Daytime plays

Tigers Over

Dodgers

Zona Dodgers Under8

for fun not in record LAA

 

[JBrilman]

SQUARE DAY FOR ME but SOMETIMES JUICE PAYS!

SQUARE DAY FOR ME but SOMETIMES JUICE PAYS!

NYY
LAD
SFG

2 teams in their home opener and SFG @ home with Cain on the mound.

BOL today fellas

 

[40seven]

Tigers Over :00hour

Dodgers

Zona Dodgers Under8

for fun not in record LAA

Lets keep it going!!!

 

[40seven]

NYY
LAD
SFG

2 teams in their home opener and SFG @ home with Cain on the mound.

BOL today fellas

If you play it its juice
and if not
its chalk.

Hard to imagine a worse than 2-1 day

 

[colts]

Oakland
Toronto
Toronto -1.5
SF

 

[40seven]

at 7

at 7

Well it looks good for a 2-1 afternoon.

At 7 Under in Rays and O's and

Under in WSOX and BJays

 

[40seven]

BOL Slicer

BOL Slicer

Oakland
Toronto
Toronto -1.5
SF

I tailed you in Toronto

 

[40seven]

Played

Played

Toronto and Cincy!!!

 

[40seven]

Recap

KCR Tigers Over

Zona LAD Under

LAD do I hear a ???????

Cincy

Toronto and the Under

Rays O's Under

I will add the Mets Rocks Under