NBA Team-by-team Playoff Trends

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NBA Team-by-team Playoff Trends

With the 2010 NBA Playoffs set to commence on Saturday, the handicapping preparation continues with a look at all 16 teams from a recent playoff trend perspective. We've dug out three playoff-exclusive trends for each team that you'll want to give consideration to as you do your daily routine. We've also listed the straight up, ATS, and over-under records for each club against its fellow conference playoff contenders over the last three years. Enjoy the analysis and good luck getting ready for a run of playoff success.

ATLANTA HAWKS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* ATLANTA is on a 1-15 SU & ATS skid in road playoff games, 9-4-1 ATS at home.
* ATLANTA is just 4-17-1 ATS in its L22 playoff games as an underdog.
* ATLANTA is 9-3 UNDER in its L12 playoff games, eclipsing the 93-point mark just once.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. BOSTON: 7-11 SU, 10-8 ATS, 9-9 O-U (Avg. Score: 90.8-97.2)
vs. CHARLOTTE: 7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 95.3-95.9)
vs. CHICAGO: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 8-3 O-U (Avg. Score: 104.8-96.7)
vs. CLEVELAND: 2-12 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 88.6-96.4)
vs. MIAMI: 11-8 SU, 9-10 ATS, 6-13 O-U (Avg. Score: 89.2-90.5)
vs. MILWAUKEE: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-2 O-U (Avg. Score: 102.7-96.6)
vs. ORLANDO: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS, 4-8 O-U (Avg. Score: 92.7-101.3)

BOSTON CELTICS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* BOSTON is on a profitable 8-3-1 ATS run in road playoff games.
* BOSTON is just 3-10 ATS in its L13 postseason games when favored by 6-points or more.
* In its L16 home playoff games, BOSTON is a surprising 11-5 OVER the total.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. ATLANTA: 11-7 SU, 8-10 ATS, 9-9 O-U (Avg. Score: 97.2-90.8)
vs. CHARLOTTE: 8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 99.8-90.4)
vs. CHICAGO: 12-5 SU, 11-5 ATS, 11-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 109.4-99.2)
vs. CLEVELAND: 10-9 SU, 5-14 ATS, 10-9 O-U (Avg. Score: 90.7-93.4)
vs. MIAMI: 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.5-92.2)
vs. MILWAUKEE: 7-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 97.1-88.4)
vs. ORLANDO: 7-11 SU, 9-9 ATS, 6-12 O-U (Avg. Score: 91.4-91.8)

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* The Bobcats' franchise is making its first ever playoff appearance
* The Charlotte HORNETS were just 3-8 ATS in their final 11 playoff games.
* In those final 11 playoff games, OVER the total was 8-2-1.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. ATLANTA: 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 95.9-95.3)
vs. BOSTON: 2-8 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 90.4-99.8)
vs. CHICAGO: 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 96.7-97.9)
vs. CLEVELAND: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 92.3-98.3)
vs. MIAMI: 7-5 SU, 8-3 ATS, 5-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 92.5-87.8)
vs. MILWAUKEE: 4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS, 5-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 90.4-93.5)
vs. ORLANDO: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS, 3-9 O-U (Avg. Score: 89.7-98.1)

CHICAGO BULLS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* Dating back to '06, CHICAGO is on a 13-5 OVER the total run in the postseason.
* CHICAGO has been better on the road (7-4-1 ATS) then at home (4-6-1 ATS) in L4 years of playoffs.
* CHICAGO is 10-5-1 ATS & 11-5 OVER the total in its L16 playoff games as an underdog.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. ATLANTA: 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS, 8-3 O-U (Avg. Score: 96.7-104.8)
vs. BOSTON: 5-12 SU, 5-11 ATS, 11-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 99.2-109.4)
vs. CHARLOTTE: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 97.9-96.7)
vs. CLEVELAND: 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 94.2-98.6)
vs. MIAMI: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS, 3-8 O-U (Avg. Score: 97-98.4)
vs. MILWAUKEE: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.3-98)
vs. ORLANDO: 2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS, 4-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 92.8-105.6)

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* CLEVELAND is 30-14 SU & 30-12-2 ATS in the first two rounds of the playoffs with LeBron James.
* CLEVELAND is on a run of 14-4 SU & ATS at home in the postseason.
* Prior to last year's Eastern Finals, CLEVELAND was on a 14-1-1 ATS run as a playoff favorite.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. ATLANTA: 12-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 96.4-88.6)
vs. BOSTON: 9-10 SU, 14-5 ATS, 10-9 O-U (Avg. Score: 93.4-90.7)
vs. CHARLOTTE: 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 98.3-92.3)
vs. CHICAGO: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 98.6-94.2)
vs. MIAMI: 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 3-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 97.6-90.8)
vs. MILWAUKEE: 8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 98.4-94.6)
vs. ORLANDO: 6-10 SU, 4-12 ATS, 10-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 100.1-103.9)

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* DALLAS is just 7-14 ATS overall in the L3 years of the NBA postseason.
* The road has been unkind to DALLAS, 2-10 SU & 3-9 ATS in its L12 playoff games away.
* DALLAS is a profitable 19-9 ATS in its L28 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5-points or less.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. DENVER: 4-11 SU, 3-12 ATS, 8-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 102.2-108.1)
vs. LA LAKERS: 3-8 SU, 6-4 ATS, 7-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.5-105.5)
vs. OKLAHOMA CITY: 7-4 SU, 3-8 ATS, 4-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 99.6-95.9)
vs. PHOENIX: 7-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 109.9-108)
vs. PORTLAND: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 95.5-93.7)
vs. SAN ANTONIO: 9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS, 9-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 97.4-95.2)
vs. UTAH: 5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS, 5-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 102.1-104.3)

DENVER NUGGETS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* DENVER won its first 12 playoff games against the spread (9-3 SU) last spring.
* DENVER was 8-7 UNDER the total in the '09 NBA playoffs and now 25-9 UNDER since '05.
* DENVER is just 8-1 SU & ATS in its L9 as a playoff favorite of 4.5-points or more.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. DALLAS: 11-4 SU, 12-3 ATS, 8-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 108.1-102.2)
vs. LA LAKERS: 5-15 SU, 8-12 ATS, 6-14 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.1-106.9)
vs. OKLAHOMA CITY: 9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS, 9-2 O-U (Avg. Score: 122.5-108.5)
vs. PHOENIX: 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 110.6-115)
vs. PORTLAND: 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS, 5-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 100.6-99.5)
vs. SAN ANTONIO: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 97-96.6)
vs. UTAH: 6-6 SU, 7-3 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 108.1-108.9)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* The LA LAKERS are on a run of 21-9 UNDER the total as a playoff favorite.
* The LA LAKERS are just 8-13 ATS in their L21 playoff games when favored by 9-points or more.
* When failing to reach 97+ points, the LA LAKERS are just 11-24 SU & 8-27 ATS in the playoffs since '03.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. DALLAS: 8-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 7-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 105.5-101.5)
vs. DENVER: 15-5 SU, 12-8 ATS, 6-14 O-U (Avg. Score: 106.9-101.1)
vs. OKLAHOMA CITY: 10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 107-98)
vs. PHOENIX: 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 113.8-106.1)
vs. PORTLAND: 5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS, 5-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 99.9-97.3)
vs. SAN ANTONIO: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 3-12 O-U (Avg. Score: 95.6-93.9)
vs. UTAH: 16-6 SU, 13-8 ATS, 12-10 O-U (Avg. Score: 108.3-101.9)

MIAMI HEAT

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* Since winning the title in '06, MIAMI is just 3-8 SU & 4-7 ATS in the postseason.
* MIAMI has gone UNDER the total in 16 of its L23 playoff games.
* MIAMI is on an incredible run of 35-11-1 ATS when eclipsing the 90-point mark in a playoff game.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. ATLANTA: 8-11 SU, 10-9 ATS, 6-13 O-U (Avg. Score: 90.5-89.2)
vs. BOSTON: 1-10 SU, 4-7 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 92.2-101.5)
vs. CHARLOTTE: 5-7 SU, 3-8 ATS, 5-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 87.8-92.5)
vs. CHICAGO: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 3-8 O-U (Avg. Score: 98.4-97)
vs. CLEVELAND: 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS, 3-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 90.8-97.6)
vs. MILWAUKEE: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 4-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 90-92.9)
vs. ORLANDO: 3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS, 7-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 96.3-103.8)

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* Dating back to '01, MILWAUKEE is just 9-18-2 ATS in its L29 franchise playoff games.
* MILWAUKEE has been a big OVER the total team in the postseason, 12-5-1 in L18.
* MILWAUKEE has covered the spread in just four of its L13 postseason home games.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. ATLANTA: 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-2 O-U (Avg. Score: 96.6-102.7)
vs. BOSTON: 2-7 SU, 5-3 ATS, 3-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 88.4-97.1)
vs. CHARLOTTE: 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS, 5-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 93.5-90.4)
vs. CHICAGO: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 98-101.3)
vs. CLEVELAND: 4-8 SU, 8-4 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 94.6-98.4)
vs. MIAMI: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 92.9-90)
vs. ORLANDO: 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 91.4-101.1)

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* The OKLAHOMA CITY franchise, formerly the Sonics, is 17-7 OVER the total in L24 playoff games.
* As the Sonics, the OKC franchise was 15-1 OVER the total as a playoff underdog of 5.5-points or more.
* Home court playoff edge was big while in Seattle, with OKC franchise 8-2 SU & ATS in L10 games.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. DALLAS: 4-7 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 95.9-99.6)
vs. DENVER: 2-9 SU, 6-5 ATS, 9-2 O-U (Avg. Score: 108.5-122.5)
vs. LA LAKERS: 1-10 SU, 6-5 ATS, 4-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 98-107)
vs. PHOENIX: 1-9 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 102.4-109.5)
vs. PORTLAND: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS, 1-10 O-U (Avg. Score: 87.5-93)
vs. SAN ANTONIO: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 92.9-97.8)
vs. UTAH: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.2-105.4)

ORLANDO MAGIC

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* ORLANDO is 20-12 UNDER the total in its L32 playoff games overall.
* ORLANDO is just 4-25 SU & 6-21-2 ATS in its L29 playoff games in which it failed to reach 95 points.
* Upsets are rare for ORLANDO as a playoff dog of 4-points or more, 3-20 SU & 8-13-2 ATS since '99.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. ATLANTA: 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-8 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.3-92.7)
vs. BOSTON: 11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS, 6-12 O-U (Avg. Score: 91.8-91.4)
vs. CHARLOTTE: 10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS, 3-9 O-U (Avg. Score: 98.1-89.7)
vs. CHICAGO: 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS, 4-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 105.6-92.8)
vs. CLEVELAND: 10-6 SU, 12-4 ATS, 10-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 103.9-100.1)
vs. MIAMI: 9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, 7-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 103.8-96.3)
vs. MILWAUKEE: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.1-91.4)

PHOENIX SUNS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* Dating back to '06, PHOENIX is just 8-13 SU & 8-11-2 ATS in the NBA playoffs.
* When failing to reach 110+ points, PHOENIX is just 18-39-2 ATS in the playoffs since '97.
* PHOENIX is just 10-16-1 ATS in its L27 games as a playoff road underdog.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. DALLAS: 3-7 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 108-109.9)
vs. DENVER: 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 115-110.6)
vs. LA LAKERS: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 106.1-113.8)
vs. OKLAHOMA CITY: 9-1 SU, 3-6 ATS, 4-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 109.5-102.4)
vs. PORTLAND: 6-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 4-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 104.1-102.2)
vs. SAN ANTONIO: 6-9 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-8 O-U (Avg. Score: 99.6-98.7)
vs. UTAH: 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 106-110.3)

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* Going back all the way to 2000, PORTLAND has won just five of 20 playoff games (10-9-1 ATS)
* PORTLAND is just 1-11 SU in its L12 road playoff games, but 6-5-1 ATS.
* PORTLAND is 10-6 ATS in the first round of the NBA playoffs since '02.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. DALLAS: 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 93.7-95.5)
vs. DENVER: 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS, 5-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 99.5-100.6)
vs. LA LAKERS: 5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 97.3-99.9)
vs. OKLAHOMA CITY: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 1-10 O-U (Avg. Score: 93-87.5)
vs. PHOENIX: 4-6 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 102.2-104.1)
vs. SAN ANTONIO: 6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS, 5-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 91.2-91.4)
vs. UTAH: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 101-101.4)

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* SAN ANTONIO is just 7-12 SU & 7-11-1 ATS in its L19 playoff games, 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS on the road.
* Over the L4 playoff seasons, SAN ANTONIO is 18-7-1 UNDER the total on the road.
* SAN ANTONIO has lost only 10 of its L70 playoff games when scoring 96+ points (57-13 ATS).

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. DALLAS: 7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS, 9-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 95.2-97.4)
vs. DENVER: 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 96.6-97)
vs. LA LAKERS: 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, 3-12 O-U (Avg. Score: 93.9-95.6)
vs. OKLAHOMA CITY: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 97.8-92.9)
vs. PHOENIX: 9-6 SU, 6-8 ATS, 7-8 O-U (Avg. Score: 98.7-99.6)
vs. PORTLAND: 4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS, 5-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 91.4-91.2)
vs. UTAH: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 98.1-97.3)

UTAH JAZZ

Top Team Playoff Power Trends
* Dating back to '99, UTAH is just 6-29 SU & 13-22 ATS in road playoff games.
* In expected close playoff games at home, lines +5 to -5, UTAH is 23-9 UNDER the total.
* Over the L3 playoff seasons, UTAH boasts a profitable 12-4 SU & 9-5-2 ATS mark at home.

Record vs. Conference Playoff Foes (L3 years)
vs. DALLAS: 6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, 5-6 O-U (Avg. Score: 104.3-102.1)
vs. DENVER: 6-6 SU, 3-7 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 108.9-108.1)
vs. LA LAKERS: 6-16 SU, 8-13 ATS, 12-10 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.9-108.3)
vs. OKLAHOMA CITY: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O-U (Avg. Score: 105.4-101.2)
vs. PHOENIX: 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS, 6-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 110.3-106)
vs. PORTLAND: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 O-U (Avg. Score: 101.4-101)
vs. SAN ANTONIO: 6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 7-4 O-U (Avg. Score: 97.3-98.1)

 

[Lumi]

NBA | (707) UTAH @ (708) DENVER | 04/17/2010 10:35 PM
Play UNDER UTAH on the first half total in Road games after a loss by 10 points or more
The record is 22 Overs and 83 Unders since 1996 (+58.80 units)
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NBA | (705) MIAMI @ (706) BOSTON | 04/17/2010 8:05 PM
Play OVER BOSTON on the total in Home games after allowing 105 points or more
The record is 22 Overs and 3 Unders for the last two seasons (+18.70 units)
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NBA | (707) UTAH @ (708) DENVER | 04/17/2010 10:35 PM
Play ON DENVER using the money line in All games when playing with 3 or more days rest
The record is 14 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.25 units)
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NBA | (707) UTAH @ (708) DENVER | 04/17/2010 10:35 PM
Play UNDER UTAH on the first half total in Road games in all playoff games
The record is 10 Overs and 43 Unders since 1996 (+32.00 units)
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NBA | (705) MIAMI @ (706) BOSTON | 04/17/2010 8:05 PM
Play OVER BOSTON on the total in Home games in April games
The record is 12 Overs and 0 Unders for the last two seasons (+12.00 units)
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NBA | (701) CHICAGO @ (702) CLEVELAND | 04/17/2010 3:00 PM
Play ON CLEVELAND using the money line in All games when playing with 2 days rest
The record is 18 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.95 units)
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NBA | (709) OKLAHOMA CITY @ (710) LA LAKERS | 04/18/2010 3:00 PM
Play OVER OKLAHOMA CITY on the total in All games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points
The record is 16 Overs and 2 Unders for the last two seasons (+13.80 units)

 

[Lumi]

Shaky Lakers, Cavs not sure things

Shaky Lakers, Cavs not sure things

Shaky Lakers, Cavs not sure things
Suspicious officiating and game-fixing conspiracies aside, there are several reasons to appreciate the NBA. The game is presently blessed with an abundance of great players, one being Kevin Durant.

The undisputed top dogs are Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, and if all goes according to plan, the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers are expected to finally collide in the NBA Finals.

It would be the ideal attraction for the league and its business partners, and Las Vegas sports books would benefit, too. But don't blindly assume we'll see the Kobe-LeBron showdown in June.

"Right now the Lakers are really a mystery," Vegas Sports Authority handicapper Jim Kruger said. "I truly believe Orlando is going to beat Cleveland in the East."

The defending champion Lakers are on wobbly legs, and the Western Conference playoff race is shaping up as a wild one, with each team winning at least 50 games in the regular season.

Before Bryant can think about James, the Lakers must get through Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder. It sounds easy enough, because a No. 8 seed upsets a No. 1 seed about as often as Conan O'Brien wins an arm wrestling contest.

But the 6-foot-9-inch Durant is no ordinary blossoming star. At age 21, he averaged 30.1 points to become the youngest NBA scoring champion.

Lakers coach Phil Jackson has a few other dilemmas. Starting center Andrew Bynum has been out since March 19 with an Achilles' tendon injury, Bryant has been bothered by a broken right index finger, and the Lakers' defensive efforts are usually too passive.

"The Lakers have been playing poorly," Kruger said. "With the energy, athleticism and scoring of Oklahoma City, I could see the Thunder giving the Lakers some trouble.

"Will Kobe get his shooting touch back? How effective will Bynum be? Ron Artest is not the Artest from two or three years ago. The Lakers are still having problems scoring, and their perimeter defense in just not that good."

The Lakers are minus-800 favorites over the Thunder in a best-of-7 series that tips Sunday in Los Angeles. The most logical story line: Durant will impress, but Bryant and the Lakers will advance in five or six games.

When betting individual games, keep in mind the always-inflated lines on the Lakers, who went 57-25 straight up but 34-46-2 against the spread. The Thunder (50-32) posted one of the league's top ATS records at 48-34.

Kruger, who hit better than 60 percent of his NBA plays this season and ranked No. 1 in net wins with the Oklahoma Sports Monitor, said he likes fifth-seeded Utah's chances to upend Denver.

The Nuggets, minus-170 series favorites, have lost some direction since coach George Karl had to take a leave for cancer treatments.

Dallas is a minus-160 favorite over San Antonio. The line indicates Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks will win in seven games.

Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire and the Phoenix Suns are serious contenders to win the West. The Suns are minus-500 favorites over Portland, which is without injured top gun Brandon Roy.

If there is a first-round upset in the East, Kruger expects it to come from the Boston-Miami series. Dwyane Wade led the Heat to an 18-4 straight-up record since March 1.

The Celtics, minus-180 favorites in the series, stumbled down the stretch as Kevin Garnett was mostly ineffective. Boston also posted the league's worst ATS mark at 32-48-2.

"Boston's normally formidable defense isn't up to its past standards, as eight of their last nine opponents have bested the 100-point mark," Kruger said. "I placed a wager on the Heat to win the series, considering the improvement Miami has made coupled with the decline of the Celtics since the All-Star break."

As the playoffs unfold, watch how the return of Shaquille O'Neal impacts the Cavaliers. Dwight Howard and the Magic rocked Cleveland last year, and with point guard Jameer Nelson back to run the offense, Orlando is in position to repeat in the East.

"Shaq is coming back, but how the heck are these guys going to play together? Cleveland is not a cohesive team," Kruger said. "I believe Orlando is the team to beat for the title."

Durant is a huge part of the NBA's future. Bryant and James are the face of the league now. But don't be surprised if they all disappear and the Magic prove to be the best futures bet at 6-1 odds.

 

[Lumi]

NBA Western Conference playoff series picks

NBA Western Conference playoff series picks

NBA Western Conference playoff series picks

Most people say you don't need to pay attention to the NBA playoffs until the second or third round. And while that may be the case in the East, it's far from the truth in the wild, wild Western Conference.

Here's how things will shake out in the Round 1:

Los Angeles Lakers (-700) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (+525)

Oklahoma City is a young, exciting team that possesses some matchup advantages against the defending champs. Thunder guard Thabo Sefolosha is the best perimeter defender in the league and he will make things difficult for Kobe Bryant.

The Thunder?s offense struggles sometimes when opponents cheat over to Kevin Durant?s side and deny him the ball. Ron Artest isn?t the defensive force he once was but he?ll still make KD work for every shot.

Oklahoma City?s real advantage comes at the point. The Thunder will extend this series if Russell Westbrook eats up Derek Fisher. Westbrook will have to keep his cool because Fisher will get the benefit of the doubt on most block/charge calls.

As bad as the Lakers looked over the last few months, they?re just too talented and have too much experience to lose in the first round.

Prediction: Lakers in six

Dallas Mavericks (-165) vs. San Antonio Spurs (+145)

Don?t let the seedings fool you, this series is a coin toss.

The Mavericks are deep and have won tight games all season. They?ve got scoring options at four out of five spots in the starting lineup and they can field a wide variety of lineup combos to best disrupt their opponent?s strengths.

Still, the Spurs are playing great basketball and are healthy heading into the postseason. Dallas has no shot of winning this series if Manu Ginobili plays as well as he has been down the stretch. The return of Tony Parker will take the ball out of Manu?s hands to some degree, which could actually help out the Mavs.

The Spurs are a tougher team. They?ve been through more rough patches this season and have preserved. Plus they?ve got the best coach in the league.

Pick: Spurs in seven

Phoenix Suns (-520) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (+430)

Brandon Roy is a fantastic player and he won?t be replaced easily. Even if he tries to play on that wonky knee, you have to figure his production will be way down.

The Blazers have depth at Roy?s position but the two likely candidates to fill in for the All-Star?s have their own shortcomings.

Rudy Fernandez is a creative player who can attack the rack but he chooses to stand behind the arc and chuck 3s all game, while Jerryd Bayless is more interested in playing one-on-one than swinging the ball to an open teammate.

Don?t sleep on Phoenix either. Sure, it has its usual defensive issues. But if you?re going to beat the Suns, you?ve got to put up triple digits every night. If Jason Richardson is aggressive and looks for his shot, Phoenix will make short work of the injury-ravaged Blazers.

Pick: Phoenix in five

Denver Nuggets (-170) vs. Utah Jazz (+150)

If you?d have asked me two months ago who the Lakers? No. 1 threat in the West was, I would have picked the Nuggets. A lot has changed since then.

George Karl isn?t on the sidelines, J.R. Smith is now forcing shots with three defenders on him rather than just two and Kenyon Martin is more worried about the interior of his luxury SUV than playing for his teammates in the postseason.

The Jazz are a different beast. No point guard in the league is playing better than Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer is motivated heading into free agency. I think the Jazz will win all the hustle categories and squeak past the Nuggets.

Pick: Jazz in six

 

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Pro capper's Top 3 tips for betting the NBA Playoffs

Pro capper's Top 3 tips for betting the NBA Playoffs

Pro capper's Top 3 tips for betting the NBA Playoffs

I closed out last season on a 39-17 NBA run, cashing in for myself and my clients consistently throughout the nearly two full months of playoff action. In this article, I'll divulge three key ?Las Vegas wiseguy? secrets for picking NBA winners in the postseason.

Tip No. 1: Be aware of the zig-zag theory

The zig-zag theory is very simple and it's a ?must understand? component of NBA playoff handicapping. The theory goes as follows: just bet on the team that lost their last playoff game.

The thought process behind the theory is simple as well: the team that just lost is likely to dig deep and produce a strong effort, before they fall into a deeper hole. Meanwhile, the team that just won is likely to make fewer adjustments and be a tad bit complacent heading into the next game.

The betting marketplace respects this theory tremendously. That's why you'll normally see a shorter pointspread in the first game following a playoff blowout. In addition, you'll often see the weaker of the two teams favored if they return home facing an 0-2 series deficit after losing the first two games on their opponent's home court.

Wiseguy bettors know that the zig-zag theory is going to influence pointspreads throughout the postseason. They'll understand why and how the oddsmakers are making adjustments to the spread from game to game as a series progresses.

Tip No. 2: Be aware of flaws in the zig-zag theory

The zig-zag theory does very well in competitive series. For a prime example, look no further than the brutal seven-game marathon between Orlando and Boston in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year. The zig-zag bettors cashed in almost every game.

But the zig-zag theory tends to fail in less competitive series, where one team has a clear advantage over their opponent. The Cleveland Cavaliers were a good example of this failure last playoff season, as they cruised to a 7-0-1 ATS mark in sweeping their first two series against the Pistons and Hawks. When there is a confidence differential and/or a talent differential, the zig-zag theory tends to crash and burn.

The zig-zag theory also fails when a team is simply priced incorrectly by the betting marketplace. Bettors got crushed trying to zig-zag against the Denver Nuggets last spring, as George Karl's squad covered the spread in their first 10 playoff games on their way to series wins over New Orleans and Dallas. At the time, bettors just didn't respect the Nuggets as much as they should have, leaving Denver as an undervalued commodity for weeks on end.

Blindly betting the zig-zag theory is a 50/50 proposition at best. The key for bettors is to determine which are the competitive series where the zig-zag will work and which are the mismatch series where the zig-zag is likely to fail.

Tip No. 3: Don't overvalue home courts

Every talking head on TV talks about the importance of the home court in the postseason. You'll repeatedly hear nonsense like, "Look for Team A to protect their home court in Game 5." But the home court edge is already fully factored in to every pointspread in every game.

Playoff teams are here because they can win on the road. The very best teams - the teams that are most likely to win a playoff series or two - tend to have winning records on the road, consistently beating teams in hostile environments.

Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Miami, Utah, Portland, Oklahoma City, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio - 11 of the 16 playoff teams - finished the regular season with a winning SU record on the road. The vast majority of those teams had winning ATS records on the highway as well.

Last year in the NBA Finals between the Magic and Lakers, the home team covered only one pointspread in the entire series. Orlando won Game 7 SU and ATS at Boston, then covered two out of three on the road at Cleveland in the Eastern Conference finals.

The best teams - the teams that you're most likely to make money with in the postseason - are the type of teams that tend to win games and cover spreads in hostile environments.

 

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NBA Eastern Conference playoff series picks

NBA Eastern Conference playoff series picks

NBA Eastern Conference playoff series picks

Let?s lay the cards on the table.

Dealing from the top of the deck you peel off LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.

Unless something really bad happens to one of those players early in the playoffs, their teams will all make it to the Eastern Conference Final Four. Unlike in the West, there is a substantial talent gap between the No. 4 seed (Boston) and the other teams who will not be around much longer than a week.

Miami is one-dimensional, Milwaukee has shot its load and has been forced to change its style of play on the fly, Charlotte has too many bangs and bruises and Chicago always seems to be fighting itself.

Chicago Bulls (+1650) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-2600) (Season series 2-2)

Joakim Noah says the Bulls ?are going to shock the world.? Sure. The Bulls deserve props for surviving a 10-game losing streak, then winning six of their last eight to grab the last playoff spot in the East, but beating everyone?s presumed Eastern Conference champ is ludicrous to the Nth degree.

The Bulls, to their credit, will scrap, the same way they did in forcing Boston to seven games in the opening series last season. But we all know this is LeBron?s year and getting a call against James in the final minutes of a close game is damn near impossible.

Cleveland?s issues are all chemistry related ? how to run the offense with James back in the mix after resting since April, how many minutes to play Shaquille O?Neal. It?ll be interesting to see how Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas divide time, plus how intent the Cavs will be on stopping Derrick Rose. Three of the four regular-season games between the teams went under. Cleveland wants the ball in James?s hands every possession and doesn?t push the ball a lot.

Interesting statistic: Forward Luol Deng (66) and reserve guard Kirk Hinrich (85) both had more steals this year than Derrick Rose (57).

Prediction: Cavaliers in four

Charlotte Bobcats (+700) vs. Orlando Magic (-1000) (Magic won season series 3-1)

The Bobcats finished with a flourish, grabbing the No. 7 seed by winning nine of their last 12 in the regular season. But seven of those nine victories came at the expense of teams that have pretty much cashed it in already.

More importantly, any chance Charlotte has of making this series even remotely competitive depends on the health of several key rotation players ? Stephen Jackson (hamstring), Gerald Wallace (shoulder), Larry Hughes (toe) and Tyrus Thomas (thumb) are all ailing.

Orlando just needs to pay a little more attention to things ? last season the 76ers made life a little uncomfortable by taking the opening round to a sixth game before the Magic put the hammer down. Casting a substantial shadow in this series is the rumor that Charlotte coach Larry Brown is getting restless again and is eyeing another stint with the 76ers.

Bettors should take a hard look at the totals. The under and over each hit twice in the four regular-season games, but one of the games needed to go overtime for the over to cash. Brown is likely to try to play this series at a snail?s pace and keep the games in the 80s.

Interesting statistic: Charlotte was the No. 1 defensive team in the league this season, holding opponents to 93.8 points per game.

Prediction: Orlando in four

Milwaukee Bucks (+550) vs. Atlanta Hawks (-725) (Hawks won season series 2-1)

Losing Andrew Bogut late in the season didn?t stop the Bucks cold in their tracks, but it did force them to alter their style of play. Without Bogut (maybe the NBA?s most improved player this season) Scott Skiles has re-tooled the Bucks? offense on the fly. Milwaukee now relies on isolations and high screens, forcing opponents to play 20 seconds of defense before a shot goes up.

Teams with disciplined defenses and half-decent bigs (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando) can deal with that without much problem, but Atlanta is man-up club that relies on athletic ability and that gives the Bucks half a shot to take this series to six. Atlanta has troubles on the front line, where undersized Al Horford plays bigger than he really is, but Milwaukee doesn?t have anything to exploit that.

At some point Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Josh Smith and Mike Bibby will take control of the series offensively and wear down the Bucks. Milwaukee?s chances of stealing one in Atlanta are slim.

Interesting statistic: Atlanta?s starters missed a total of only nine games to injury this season.

Prediction: Atlanta in five

Miami Heat (+155) vs. Boston Celtics (-175) (Celtics won season series 3-0)

For 81 games, Doc Rivers said the Celtics would be fine come playoff time. Then before Game 82 last night, he said he doesn?t know what to expect. Huh? Looks like Rivers is finally starting to either realize or admit that the Celtics? problems run deeper than just getting healthy.

Boston?s hopes of playing into late May are directly proportionate to the strength in Kevin Garnett?s knees. Without him at peak efficiency (and right now that?s at about 65-70 percent of what he was when the Celtics won the title two years ago) this team goes down hard even if it finds a way past Dwyane Wade and the Heat.

Wade and the Heat have made a nice recovery from a slow start and come into this series with an 18-4 record since March 2. Last season Miami pushed Atlanta to a seventh game in the opening series when Wade went off and couldn?t be handled after a sluggish Game 1.

Interesting statistic: The Celtics were 25th in the league in rebounding this season.

Prediction: Boston in six

 

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NBA Playoff Preview - Orlando vs. Charlotte

NBA Playoff Preview - Orlando vs. Charlotte

NBA Playoff Preview - Orlando vs. Charlotte


Orlando Magic: 2nd Seed, East (59-23)

Charlotte Bobcats: 7th Seed, East (44-38)

Larry Brown's latest reclamation project is complete and the Charlotte Bobcats will be making the franchise's first ever postseason appearance.

Brown's prize for turning things around in Charlotte?

How about the defending Eastern Conference champion Orlando Magic in the first round.

Despite losing sharp-shooter and go-to-guy Hedo Turkoglu in the offseason, Orlando persevered and earned its third consecutive Southeast Division crown and compiled the second best record in the NBA at 59-23.

Incredibly consistent, Orlando joined Dallas as the only clubs this season to beat every team in the NBA at least once, and the Magic were the only NBA team that did not lose a season series to any opponent.

"I knew that once we got our chemistry together, I think we have the most talented team," Orlando forward Matt Barnes said. "The starting five is the best in the league."

Charlotte's road to the postseason really took off in mid-November when the team acquired talented swingman Stephen Jackson from Golden State for a package that included the injured Raja Bell and Vladimir Radmanovic.

Jackson was able to team with All-Star forward Gerald Wallace to give Brown quite a 1-2 punch as the Bobcats surged to the seventh seed in the conference.

"I really believe the season's just starting," Brown said. "I'm thrilled we got into the playoffs."

Charlotte will not be heading into the postseason without controversy, however. Reports surfaced early this week that the nomadic Brown is interested in returning to Philadelphia or Los Angeles once the Bobcats' season ends, although the veteran mentor denied the rumors.

Brown's wife and two teenage children still live in suburban Philadelphia and The Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell recently asked Bobcats owner Michael Jordan about Brown's situation.

Jordan reportedly indicated he wouldn't stand in Brown's way if he felt the need to return to Philadelphia for family reasons. The Clippers job is also an option since Brown's wife is a Los Angeles native.

The Bobcats avoided a sweep in the season series with the Magic when they topped Orlando, 96-89, in central Florida on March 14.



MATCHUPS:

POINT GUARD: Orlando's Jameer Nelson never returned to the All-Star form he showed in the first half of last season before going down with a shoulder injury. But, the former St. Joseph's star is a steady point guard that can be counted on to run things smoothly even when things aren't going the way you would like. Nelson is undersized, however, and can be a liability at the defensive end.

Playing the point for Brown is tough, especially for a younger player. L.B. wants a quarterback that thinks pass first and has a defensive mindset. Think Eric Snow.

Raymond Felton doesn't necessarily fit those qualifications and is often Brown's whipping boy but the ex-North Carolina standout put up similar numbers to Nelson and is actually more physically gifted. That said, Nelson's experience gives him the slight edge.

EDGE: MAGIC



SHOOTING GUARD: Jackson really turned the Bobcats into a legitimate playoff contender when he arrived from Oakland. Many in the media dismiss Jackson as an elite player since he had some off the court problems in Indianapolis and his perceived griping in Oakland was detrimental to the Warriors. However, he is one of the game's most underrated players.

Athletic with a high basketball IQ, Jackson is a somewhat streaky shooter but his range extends to the three-point line when he heats up. Against smaller players, Brown will often utilize Jackson in the post, where he uses above- average passing skills and solid court vision to make things happen. On the defensive end, Jackson hounds the perimeter with his long wingspan, quickness, and awareness.

"You ask anyone in the league - Stephen is an elite player. He's as bright as anyone I've coached," Brown said.

Vince Carter, an eight-time All-Star, isn't the same player he once was in Toronto or New Jersey but he can still light it up and take over a game at times. Back on Feb. 8, Carter found the Fountain of Youth and poured in a a season-high 48 points against the New Orleans Hornets, including 34 in the second half to help rally the Magic back from a 17-point deficit. You certainly can't expect that kind of production consistently but when the jumper is falling, Carter is still very tough to check. He's not nearly the defender Jackson is, however.

EDGE: BOBCATS



CENTER: The Bobcats have plenty of options at center but none of them figure to slow down Howard, the toughest inside matchup in the NBA. If Brown goes with Tyson Chandler or Nazr Mohammed to try and slow down Howard with bulk, that will allow the Magic to get a ton of open looks for Rashard Lewis and Carter. If Brown chooses the smarts of veteran Theo Ratliff that will open up the middle for Howard, a monster inside that can dominate any game.

A tinge of immaturity and shaky free-throw shooting are always on the back- burner with Howard but he finished the regular season leading the league in both rebounding and blocked shots for the second straight season, a feat never done before.

To control the double-double monster on the offensive end, you need to push him away from the basket. Defensively, Howard is a monster but can be prone to foul trouble so the whistle will be key from game to game.

"There has been no (Hedo) Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis missed the first 10 games of the season, Vince Carter started very slowly and they still have the second best record in the NBA because of Dwight," TNT NBA analyst Charles Barley said.

EDGE: MAGIC



SMALL FORWARD: Barnes was the biggest surprise for Orlando this season, taking over the starting job here and turning into quite a role player. A pesky defender, Barnes also developed a solid stand-still, three-pointer from the weak-side this season.

Boris Diaw is a very skilled player that can hurt you on the offensive end, both scoring and passing. He's not the toughest guy in the world, however, and is a below average rebounder and defender.

This matchup comes down to preference. If you like defense and scrappy play, Barnes is your guy. If you like skilled players, Diaw is the answer.

EDGE: EVEN



POWER FORWARD: Lewis isn't your prototypical power forward but the 6-foot-10 veteran is a matchup nightmare for most clubs. The former All-Star still has one of the best strokes in the game but can now put that in his pocket and spend more time on the blocks. His weaknesses are rebounding and low-post defense but his ability to stretch the floor on the offensive end more than makes up for that.

The Bobcats seem to have one of the few players that can take advantage of Lewis' weaknesses, while at least slowing him down at the offensive end. Wallace is a much better defender and rebounder than Lewis. He also possesses the toughness to give Lewis fits in an extended series.

EDGE: BOBCATS



BENCH: Mickael Pietrus is inconsistent. One minute he can be Stan Van Gundy's whipping boy and the next he is brilliant, burying big three after big three. An extremely athletic player, Pietrus will also get opportunities to defend both Jackson and Wallace at times. Big men Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass, along with veteran point Jason Williams and sharp-shooter J.J. Redick also get situational minutes. Gortat and Bass can be really important when Howard gets into foul trouble.

The Bobcats' bench was bolstered down the stretch by the additions of Tyrus Thomas and Larry Hughes. Thomas has the length and athletic ability to rebound and defend, while Hughes can heat up at times and carry a team for a stretch here and there. As mentioned before there are plenty of bodies to take fouls against Howard up front, although Chandler suffered a hip pointer and elbow injury in the second quarter of the team's regular season finale. D.J. Augustin is also a very solid back up point guard for Brown.

EDGE: MAGIC



COACHING: Van Gundy proved he was one of the game's best tacticians during last year's playoff run but few in the history of the game can match up with Brown when it comes to X's and O's. Brown's lone deficiency as a coach is his impatience with his players and his situation. He tends to give up on talented young players rather quickly and loathes playing rookies. That can hurt you in an 82-game marathon but I don't like any coach trying to match chess pieces with L.B. in a short series. The problem here is Brown already has one foot out the door.

EDGE: EVEN



PREDICTION: The talent discrepancy between these two teams is not as great as you would think considering the difference in records but a number of things are pointing in Orlando's direction. The Bobcats already accomplished their main goal of making the postseason for the first time in franchise history. Meanwhile, the core of the Magic have that deep run from last year to fall back upon and the most dominant inside player in the game in Howard. The fact that Brown has likely already made the decision to move on is also tough to overcome.

MAGIC in 5

 

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NBA Playoff Preview - Cleveland vs. Chicago

NBA Playoff Preview - Cleveland vs. Chicago

NBA Playoff Preview - Cleveland vs. Chicago

Cleveland Cavaliers: 1st Seed, East (61-21)

Chicago Bulls: 8th Seed, East (41-41)

- Every time LeBron James wears a New York Yankees cap, the basketball fans in Gotham smile.

The reasoning is simple. Since the Cleveland Cavaliers' superstar loves baseball's most storied franchise, he must relish the thought of playing in the nation's No. 1 media market.

Whether or not that's true and LeBron opts out of his contract this offseason to play on the biggest stage of them all is a story we will all be visiting quite a bit in due time, but let's put that on the back-burner for now.

I'm more focused on how much The King and his Cavs now have in common with the Yankees as the team gets ready to kick off it's Eastern Conference quarterfinals series with the Chicago Bulls.

The Cavaliers resume is very impressive. Cleveland owns the NBA's best overall record at 61-21 despite shutting things down a week early, the best home record at 35-6 and the second best road mark (26-15). In the process, the Cavs became the first team since the Chicago Bulls (1995-96 and 1996-97) and only the fifth team in the last 19 seasons to finish with sole possession of the best NBA regular season mark in consecutive years.

Cleveland also became only the ninth different franchise in NBA history to have back-to-back 60 win seasons.

But, just like the Evil Empire in baseball, records and little things like division or conference championships now mean very little to a Cavaliers club obsessed with the NBA championship.

Anything less than a World Series title in the Bronx means the season has been a failure. Cleveland is now in that same rarified air.

Best record in the NBA...who cares?

An Eastern Conference crown...yawn.

The only thing that will placate the fans in Cleveland and James himself is that NBA title.

"We got through it," Cleveland head coach Mike Brown said after the team's regular season finale. "Everyone's healthy. Now we can look forward to the playoffs. We know who we're going to play and I think our players understand what's at stake here and they'll be ready."

The Cavs kick off their quest against an eighth-seeded Bulls club that has, in essence, been playing playoff basketball for the last two weeks. Chicago won its final three games down the stretch to vault over Toronto and sneak into the postseason despite a pedestrian .500 record (41-41) and some significant turmoil in the front office.

Bulls general manager Gar Forman released a statement Wednesday, acknowledging a confrontation between head coach Vinny Del Negro and vice president of basketball operations John Paxson back in March.

While not identifying Paxson by name, Forman said the disagreement was "the result of each expressing their passion about the health and well being of their players and the desire to win basketball games."

Yahoo! Sports reported that Paxson shoved Del Negro twice in the chest and had to be restrained in a post-game confrontation after a loss to Phoenix on March 30. The report said Paxson was upset because Del Negro breached a management- imposed limit on the minutes center Joakim Noah was to play because of an injured left foot.

"My team will sacrifice everything they've got in order to make it to this stage," Noah said. "We're going to try to shock the world."

Chicago and Cleveland split a four-game season series this year but the last Bulls win came when the Cavs had shut it down and were resting James.

These two Central Division rivals were regular postseason opponents during the Michael Jordan-era with the Bulls taking five straight series between 1987-88 and 1993-94.



MATCHUPS:

POINT GUARD: Mo Williams didn't quite play up to an All-Star level like he did last season but he remains an unselfish player that can stretch a defense with his three-point shot and carry the offensive load if James is not firing on all cylinders.

Williams' counterpart is the dynamic Derrick Rose, who basically willed the Bulls into the postseason by averaging 30.7 points and 6.3 assists in the team's final three regular season games -- all wins. In fact, Rose scored fewer than 24 points only once in the month of April and is playing with supreme confidence right now. The jumper gets better by the day and Rose's quick first step enables him to drive at will where his soft floater becomes an incredible offensive weapon.

EDGE: BULLS



SHOOTING GUARD: Anthony Parker was an underrated offseason acquisition by Cavs' basketball chief Danny Ferry. The former Raptor is never going to fill it up but his 41.4 percentage from long range really helps space the floor for James.

The Bulls' Kirk Hinrich is a better all-around player than Parker. The third- leading scorer on Chicago behind Rose and Luol Deng, Hinrich has the capability of going off for 25 every night and is the team's best perimeter defender. However, he's actually had a poor shooting year.

EDGE: BULLS



CENTER: Shaquille O'Neal, who hasn't played since late February due to a thumb injury, has been medically cleared to return but I can't see Cavs coach Mike Brown pulling the trigger and giving the Big Aristotle major minutes right off the bat. Cleveland went small in O'Neal's absence, using J.J. Hickson in the middle and the second-year big man more than held his own.

Noah figures to be a tough matchup for any player that mans the middle for Cleveland. His length, energy and athleticism are top notch and give him the ability to change a plethora of shots. The skills on the offensive end are not there, however, and Noah picks up most of his points through effort.

EDGE: EVEN



SMALL FORWARD: James has been the games' best player by a wide margin again this season and figures to easily win his second straight MVP award. He sat the last four games of the regular season to rest and that move can be questioned, especially if James comes out a bit rusty. Either way, that shouldn't last long and it's hard to imagine Chicago, with its lack of solid defenders on the wing, slowing down James for any considerable length of time. The only perceived weakness in LeBron's game is the lack of a consistent, top-tier jumper but when that's falling, forget about it.

Deng wasn't around for the Bulls epic opening round series against Boston last year due to injury but has bounced back nicely, averaging just over 17 points a night. Deng is underrated but asking him to handle James in any form is folly.

EDGE: CAVS



POWER FORWARD: The Bulls have gone with rookie Taj Gibson at the four spot and Cleveland now counters with former All-Star Antawn Jamison. That's a mismatch any way you slice it but Gibson has had a nice freshman season while Jamison has struggled at times since arriving in Cleveland from Washington on Feb. 17 as part of a three-team, six-player blockbuster.

Jamison's paltry 49.4 free throw percentage since the trade is cause for concern but don't underestimate his rather large experience advantage. The veteran should be able to torture Gibson at times down on the blocks.

EDGE: CAVS



BENCH: Del Negro has some solid options off the bench for this series with veterans Brad Miller, Flip Murray and Hakim Warrick. Miller, a veteran center, has played in over 40 postseason games and just knows how to play the right way. Murray is streaky but can always provide instant offense, while Warrick has the athleticism to make things difficult for stretches but seems to have lost the confidence of the coaching staff.

The Cavs have even more impressive options in former starters Anderson Varejao, Delonte West, along with solid backcourt contributors Boobie Gibson and Sebastian Telfair. No team in the NBA can match what Brown is bringing off his bench.

EDGE: CAVS



COACHING: Brown doesn't get a lot of credit since he is expected to win but he's done a solid job of massaging egos around James and fitting the pieces together. That said, he will never be considered an upper echelon-coach until he brings home the Lawrence O'Brien trophy.

The Bulls can spin it any way they like but Del Negro would have been gone had the team not made the playoffs. Any time you have the front office and coaching staff clashing, it's a problem. Del Negro had no experience when he was hired before last season and is still learning on the job, day-by-day.

EDGE: CAVS



PREDICTION: The Cavs have more playoff experience, the best player in the game and a more competent coach but they shut it down for a week while Chicago has been playing for its playoff life each and every day. I think rustiness might be able to steal the Bulls a game or two but they will not seriously threaten Cleveland.

CAVS in 5

 

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NBA Playoff Preview - Atlanta vs. Milwaukee

NBA Playoff Preview - Atlanta vs. Milwaukee

NBA Playoff Preview - Atlanta vs. Milwaukee

Atlanta Hawks: 3rd Seed, East (53-29)
Milwaukee Bucks: 6th Seed, East (46-36)

Improvement is the mantra in Atlanta as the third-seeded Hawks get ready to kick off their Eastern Conference quarterfinals series against No. 6 Milwaukee.

Two years after ending a lengthy playoff drought, Atlanta compiled its best record (53-29) since notching 50 victories in the 1997-98 season, and now looks like a serious contender in the Eastern Conference.

The Hawks captured the eighth seed in the East two years ago with a less-than- stellar 37-45 mark and faced the veteran-laden Boston Celtics in the opening round of the playoffs. Mike Woodson's club took the eventual NBA champions to seven games in that series. Last season, the Hawks vaulted to the fourth spot in the East and earned a first round win over Miami before succumbing to the mighty Cleveland Cavaliers. A similar step forward this season would have the Hawks toiling in the Eastern Conference finals.

"This is where it gets exciting," Atlanta forward Marvin Williams said of the upcoming postseason. "We've worked hard all season for this moment and we have to make it count."

Woodson's team is a year older and wiser this time around and is led once again by talented shooting guard Joe Johnson. Johnson led the Hawks in points (21.3) and assists (4.9), while young stars Josh Smith and Al Horford contributed their skills to the improvement of the franchise. Meanwhile, veteran point guard Mike Bibby remains a steady floor leader that seems to bury big shots in key moments.

The Bucks make their return to the postseason thanks in large part to the play of dynamic rookie guard Brandon Jennings along with the improvement of center Andrew Bogut.

Unfortunately for Scott Skiles' club, Bogut suffered a broken right hand after falling awkwardly to the floor following a dunk against Phoenix back on April 3. Bogut underwent surgery a day later and is expected to be out up to six weeks, meaning he'll likely miss the playoffs, even if Milwaukee can muster a significant run.

That's a serious blow since Bogut has developed into one of the best pivot men in the game. The former No. 1 overall pick was the Bucks' leading rebounder at 10.2 per game, and also averaged a career-high 15.9 points in 69 contests this season

Atlanta went 2-1 against Milwaukee in the regular season, including a 104-96 win in Milwaukee on Monday. The two clubs met three times in the postseason back in the 1980s, with the Bucks taking two of the sets in '83-84 and '88-89. The Hawks lone win came in the '87-88 season.

"Did you see the game we played against them last week?" the Hawks' Jamal Crawford told NBA.com. "That was one of the best games of the year. It was a playoff game. It was non-stop, back and forth action from both teams. That's what you see when two good teams lock up and get it on."

MATCHUPS:

POINT GUARD: Bibby is one of the most experienced and underrated point guards in the East and is very familiar with the postseason. A vital piece of Sacramento's tough teams a few years back, Bibby has been arguably the best floor general in Atlanta since Mookie Blalock ran the point for the Hawks. Bibby can also stick the three in a big spot and close a game with some of the best.

Like of lot of NBA people, I didn't have high hopes for Jennings after evaluating his season in Europe with Lottomatica Roma. During 27 games in the overly-structured, fundamentally-obsessed Italian Lega A, Jennings averaged just 5.5 points, 1.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.5 steals in 17.0 minutes per game. He shot a miserable 35.1 percent from the field and a dismal 20.7 percent from three-point range in Lega A play. In 16 Euroleague games, Jennings improved to 7.6 points, 1.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.2 steals in 19.6 minutes per game, while shooting 38.7 percent from the field and 26.8 percent from three -- still not impressive.

Instead of a sure-fire top five pick, Jennings began to drift in most mock drafts after his disappointing performance overseas. The upside was still there but the 20-year-old point guard looked like a multi-year project. After seeing Jennings in his NBA debut in Philadelphia, I felt like one of those new-breed baseball scouts that live and die by black-and-white numbers on a sheet of paper; scouts that never actually take the time to see the player they are supposed to be evaluating,

Jennings is breathtakingly quick with the ball, perhaps even a tick above a Tony Parker or Rajon Rondo. The jumper is still shaky and you can bet the Hawks will start sagging off forcing Jennings to shoot over the top, but that's the kind of adjustment all rookies need to make.

EDGE: EVEN

SHOOTING GUARD: Johnson is one of the NBA's best talents and led the Hawks in every major offensive category this season. He's the team's go-to-guy down the stretch of close games and, when hot, can fill it up like few others.

John Salmons is no superstar for the Bucks but he is a 6-foot-6 wing player with solid offensive skills and the ability to match up on the defensive end with the NBA's top scorers. He's also become the league's version of Mr. Fix- it. Salmons was averaging over 18 points a game at the trade deadline last year when the Sacramento Kings moved him to Chicago, along with veteran center Brad Miller, for four players. That move fueled the Bulls' run toward a playoff berth as Salmons played superbly in the Windy City.

Despite that Salmons lost minutes this year and the Bulls, fearing he might opt out of the final year of his contract, moved him at this year's deadline to the Bucks for forwards Hakim Warrick and Joe Alexander. Since the trade, the Bucks have amassed a 22-8 record and secured their first postseason berth in four years.

"He has been great," Skiles said. "He has just fit right in. He has played good defense, scored for us, shot the ball. He has made big plays for us. He makes free throws. All-around, he has been very, very good."

EDGE: HAWKS

CENTER: Horford is really an athletic power forward playing center but he is an excellent rebounder and shot-blocker. The Florida product, like a lot of young players, doesn't have many low-post moves but he has been a vital piece to Atlanta's turnaround the past few years.

I'd be hard-pressed to say Horford, as talented as he is, was a better center than Bogut this year but that's moot now. Veteran Kurt Thomas, who gets by on experience and guile at this point of his career, has taken over for Bogut and that is a massive downgrade.

EDGE: HAWKS

SMALL FORWARD: Carlos Delfino has earned the three spot in Milwaukee and brings the ability to stretch the floor. The Argentine star buried 134 threes on the year, second on the team to Jennings. Delfino will also stick his nose into things on the boards and at the defensive end but doesn't bring enough athletic ability to the table to excel at those things.

The Hawks' Marvin Williams is another former high draft pick that kind of gets lost in the shuffle when you talk about the young talent in Atlanta since Horford and Josh Smith have developed into All-Star type players. Williams is very skilled but lacks toughness and is a below average rebounder.

EDGE: EVEN

POWER FORWARD: The dynamic Smith will be a tough matchup for Milwaukee. Incredibly athletic, Smith will look to run the floor at every opportunity. His energy and ability to finish really ignite the crowd when the Hawks are at home.

If this was hockey, the Bucks' Luc Mbah a Moute would be regarded as a mucker and grinder, a guy that does all the dirty work you need to succeed. That said, a role player isn't going to be able to match Smith's skills at either end of the floor.

EDGE: HAWKS

BENCH: We all knew Hawks guard Jamal Crawford had big-time offensive skills but he was always on miserable teams and the jury was out on whether he could fit in and contribute with a winning program. That's all in the rear view mirror now. Crawford averaged 18.0 points and 3.0 assists on a 53-win Atlanta team and will likely be named the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year. Maurice Evans adds defense on the wing for Woodson and Zaza Pachulia is a solid reserve big man.

Backup point guard Luke Ridnour gets a lot of late game minutes for Milwaukee thanks to his solid ball-handling skills and 90.7 free throw percentage. Ersan Ilyasova and veteran Jerry Stackhouse offer Skiles instant offense while Dan Gadzuric can bang on the boards.

EDGE: HAWKS

COACHING: This matchup features two of the better coaches in the game. The Hawks have improved every season under Woodson, who learned at the feet of Larry Brown among others. Skiles will get a lot of votes for Coach of the Year and the former point guard has done wonders for Jennings' and Ridnour's games.

EDGE: EVEN

PREDICTION: If the Bucks had any chance here, it likely went down in flames when Bogut was injured against Phoenix in early April. Atlanta is just too athletic and has too many offensive options for Milwaukee to keep up in a seven-game setting.

HAWKS in 5

 

[Lumi]

*** NBA Playoff Matchup - Milwaukee vs. Atlanta ***
(All Times Eastern)



(6) Milwaukee Bucks (46-36) vs. (3) Atlanta Hawks (53-29)
---------------------------------------------------------

Game One - Saturday, April 17th - Milwaukee at Atlanta, 5:30 p.m.
Game Two - Tuesday, April 20th - Milwaukee at Atlanta, 7 p.m.
Game Three - Saturday, April 24th - Atlanta at Milwaukee, 7 p.m.
Game Four - Monday, April 26th - Atlanta at Milwaukee, TBA
*Game Five - Wednesday, April 28th - Milwaukee at Atlanta, TBA
*Game Six - Friday, April 30th - Atlanta at Milwaukee, TBA
*Game Seven - Sunday, May 2nd - Milwaukee at Atlanta, TBA

* - If necessary

2009-10 Head-to-head record - Atlanta 2-1
2008-09 Head-to-head record - Atlanta 3-1
2007-08 Head-to-head record - Tied 2-2
2006-07 Head-to-head record - Milwaukee 2-1
2005-06 Head-to-head record - Milwaukee 3-1
2004-05 Head-to-head record - Milwaukee 2-1
2003-04 Head-to-head record - Tied 2-2
2002-03 Head-to-head record - Tied 2-2
Overall Head-to-head record - Milwaukee 96-92
NBA Playoff Series Record - Milwaukee 2-1
1984 - Milwaukee wins series, 3-2
1988 - Atlanta wins series, 3-2
1989 - Milwaukee wins series, 3-2
Home Record: Milwaukee 28-13; Atlanta 34-7
Away Record: Milwaukee 18-23; Atlanta 19-22
Current Streak: Milwaukee (W1); Atlanta (W4)
Record vs. Southeast Division: Milwaukee 8-10
Record vs. Central Division: Atlanta 11-7
Record vs. Eastern Conference: Milwaukee 31-21; Atlanta 32-20
Record in last 10 games: Milwaukee 6-4; Atlanta 7-3

Points Field Goal 3-Pt Fg
Per Game Percentage Percentage Turnovers Per Game
Team Own Opp Own Opp Own Opp Own Opp Margin
Milwaukee 97.7 96.0 .436 .451 .356 .343 13.2 15.3 +2.1
Atlanta 101.7 97.0 .468 .460 .360 .345 12.0 13.8 +1.9

Under 100 Pts OT 3 Pts 10 Pts
Rebound Pct Own Opp Games or Less or More
Team Off Def Tot W-L W-L W-L W-L W-L
Milwaukee .262 .764 .513 24-29 37-11 4-6 7-12 19-17
Atlanta .282 .727 .504 14-20 40-12 4-3 4-6 31-9

2009-2010 Meetings
------------------
02/28 - Atlanta, 106-102 ot (at Atl)
03/22 - Milwaukee, 98-95 (at Mil)
04/12 - Atlanta, 104-96 (at Mil)

2008-2009 Meetings
------------------
11/26 - Atlanta, 102-96 (at Atl)
01/23 - Atlanta, 117-87 (at Atl)
01/31 - Milwaukee, 110-107 (at Mil)
04/08 - Atlanta, 113-105 (at Mil)

2007-2008 Meetings
------------------
11/17 - Milwaukee, 105-96 (at Mil)
11/28 - Atlanta, 96-80 (at Atl)
01/16 - Milwaukee, 87-80 (at Mil)
03/26 - Atlanta, 115-96 (at Atl)

2006-2007 Meetings
------------------
11/14 - Milwaukee, 103-101 (at Atl)
04/06 - Atlanta, 115-102 (at Atl)
04/16 - Milwaukee, 102-96 (at Mil)

2005-2006 Meetings
------------------
01/20 - Milwaukee, 118-102 (at Atl)
02/25 - Milwaukee, 99-89 (at Atl)
03/13 - Milwaukee, 88-87 (at Mil)
04/15 - Atlanta, 120-114 (at Mil)

2004-2005 Meetings
------------------
01/11 - Atlanta, 103-80 (at Atl)
02/12 - Milwaukee, 113-83 (at Mil)
03/08 - Milwaukee, 105-101 (at Mil)

2003-2004 Meetings
------------------
11/18 - Atlanta, 101-93 (at Mil)
12/02 - Milwaukee, 106-94 (at Atl)
01/31 - Atlanta, 93-83 (at Atl)
03/10 - Milwaukee, 94-80 (at Mil)

2002-2003 Meetings
------------------
12/05 - Atlanta, 98-80 (at Atl)
01/14 - Milwaukee, 97-88 (at Mil)
03/02 - Milwaukee, 120-93 (at Mil)
03/12 - Atlanta, 111-92 (at Atl)

Regular Season Notes
--------------------
Note - Atlanta has won three of the last four meetings.
Note - Atlanta has won six of eight and seven of the last 10 meetings.
Note - Atlanta has won eight of 13 and nine of the last 15 meetings.
Note - Milwaukee has won 11 of 20 and 12 of the last 22 meetings.
Note - Milwaukee has won 13 of the last 24 meetings.
Note - These two teams have split the last 26 meetings.
Note - Milwaukee has lost six straight after winning its last three at Atlanta.
Note - Milwaukee has lost eight of 11 and 11 of its last 15 at Atlanta.
Note - Atlanta has won two of its last three at Milwaukee.
Note - Atlanta has lost five of its last seven at Milwaukee.
Note - Atlanta has lost nine of 12 and 18 of its last 22 at Milwaukee.

Milwaukee last 10 games Atlanta last 10 games
----------------------- ---------------------
03/30 - W vs. LA Clippers, 107-89 03/28 - W vs. Indiana, 94-84
03/31 - L at Cleveland, 98-101 03/31 - W vs. LA Lakers, 109-92
04/02 - L at Charlotte, 86-87 (OT) 04/02 - L at Cleveland, 88-93
04/03 - W vs. Phoenix, 107-98 04/03 - W vs. Detroit, 91-85
04/06 - W at Chicago, 79-74 04/06 - L at Charlotte, 100-109
04/07 - W vs. New Jersey, 108-89 04/07 - L at Detroit, 88-90
04/09 - W at Philadelphia, 95-90 04/09 - W vs. Toronto, 107-101
04/10 - L vs. Boston, 90-105 04/10 - W at Washington, 105-95
04/12 - L vs. Atlanta, 96-104 04/12 - W at Milwaukee, 104-96
04/14 - W at Boston, 106-95 04/14 - W vs. Cleveland, 99-83

*** Final 2009-2010 Milwaukee Bucks Individual Statistics ***

G MIN PPG RPG APG OFF DEF TOT AST STL BLK TO PF
A.Bogut 69 2229 15.9 10.2 1.8 208 493 701 127 39 175 131 222
B.Jennings 82 2671 15.5 3.4 5.7 49 233 282 470 105 18 200 191
J.Salmons 81 2825 15.4 3.3 2.8 35 235 270 223 99 26 123 166
M.Redd 18 492 11.9 3.0 2.2 11 43 54 39 19 2 15 24
C.Delfino 75 2279 11.0 5.3 2.7 51 343 394 202 80 21 119 138
L.Ridnour 82 1759 10.4 1.7 4.0 24 119 143 324 54 7 106 182
E.Ilyasova 81 1898 10.4 6.4 1.0 157 360 517 84 53 23 71 251
J.Stackhouse 42 855 8.5 2.4 1.7 19 81 100 70 21 9 66 56
C.Bell 71 1611 6.5 1.9 1.5 31 101 132 104 39 12 54 136
L.Mbah a Moute 73 1866 6.2 5.5 1.1 171 229 400 81 60 39 70 181
K.Thomas 70 1049 3.0 4.2 0.7 84 207 291 47 26 46 48 159
D.Gadzuric 32 314 2.8 2.9 0.4 38 54 92 12 9 13 15 63
R.Ivey 44 327 2.1 0.8 0.6 6 28 34 27 19 2 11 39
P.Brezec 21 95 0.9 1.2 0.0 12 13 25 1 1 3 2 19
D.Jackson 28 122 0.8 0.8 0.1 9 13 22 4 2 4 13 21

FG 3PT FT
M-A PCT M-A PCT M-A PCT PTS HI
A.Bogut 473-910 .520 0-2 .000 149-237 .629 1095 32
B.Jennings 451-1216 .371 145-388 .374 223-273 .817 1270 55
J.Salmons 437-991 .441 118-309 .382 253-305 .830 1245 32
M.Redd 75-213 .352 18-60 .300 47-66 .712 215 32
C.Delfino 299-732 .408 134-365 .367 93-119 .782 825 28
L.Ridnour 328-686 .478 69-181 .381 127-140 .907 852 27
E.Ilyasova 323-729 .443 81-241 .336 113-158 .715 840 25
J.Stackhouse 129-316 .408 45-130 .346 55-69 .797 358 20
C.Bell 169-443 .381 73-200 .365 48-67 .716 459 19
L.Mbah a Moute 177-369 .480 6-17 .353 93-133 .699 453 18
K.Thomas 99-208 .476 0-0 .000 12-15 .800 210 12
D.Gadzuric 39-89 .438 0-0 .000 10-25 .400 88 14
R.Ivey 35-83 .422 14-35 .400 9-12 .750 93 9
P.Brezec 9-26 .346 0-0 .000 1-6 .167 19 4
D.Jackson 9-30 .300 1-4 .250 4-6 .667 23 10

*** Final 2009-2010 Atlanta Hawks Individual Statistics ***

G MIN PPG RPG APG OFF DEF TOT AST STL BLK TO PF
J.Johnson 76 2886 21.3 4.6 4.9 74 279 353 369 82 5 145 145
J.Crawford 79 2460 18.0 2.5 3.0 34 167 201 238 61 12 137 132
J.Smith 81 2871 15.7 8.7 4.2 223 482 705 342 130 173 198 240
A.Horford 81 2845 14.2 9.9 2.3 236 563 799 189 59 91 122 225
M.Williams 81 2468 10.1 5.1 1.1 106 310 416 93 66 46 72 160
M.Bibby 80 2195 9.1 2.3 3.9 20 164 184 310 67 3 90 157
M.Evans 79 1317 5.7 1.9 0.6 59 95 154 48 34 17 20 125
Z.Pachulia 78 1089 4.3 3.8 0.5 117 176 293 42 37 30 58 186
J.Teague 71 719 3.2 0.9 1.7 5 62 67 122 34 11 50 82
J.Smith 64 592 3.0 2.5 0.3 66 91 157 21 6 19 22 95
R.Morris 28 124 2.2 1.4 0.1 10 28 38 2 5 3 12 34
M.West 39 142 0.8 0.7 0.2 8 19 27 9 8 0 7 25
J.Collins 24 115 0.7 0.6 0.2 5 9 14 4 3 2 5 21

FG 3PT FT
M-A PCT M-A PCT M-A PCT PTS HI
J.Johnson 635-1386 .458 129-350 .369 220-269 .818 1619 40
J.Crawford 496-1105 .449 163-427 .382 270-315 .857 1425 33
J.Smith 504-999 .505 0-7 .000 261-422 .618 1269 29
A.Horford 467-847 .551 1-1 1.000 213-270 .789 1148 31
M.Williams 302-664 .455 40-132 .303 176-215 .819 820 29
M.Bibby 268-644 .416 126-324 .389 68-79 .861 730 23
M.Evans 175-393 .445 57-169 .337 46-61 .754 453 22
Z.Pachulia 120-246 .488 0-4 .000 93-143 .650 333 14
J.Teague 90-227 .396 7-32 .219 41-49 .837 228 24
J.Smith 77-193 .399 1-7 .143 39-48 .813 194 12
R.Morris 23-41 .561 0-0 .000 16-27 .593 62 7
M.West 12-21 .571 0-1 .000 6-10 .600 30 10
J.Collins 8-23 .348 0-1 .000 0-2 .000 16 10

Note - All statistics are regular season except where noted.