MLB Sat to Sat week ended 05012010 - Thoughts & Value Hunting
- Thread starter 40seven
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
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Grindstone thanks for your NBA play, that was sweet
Grindstone thanks for your NBA play, that was sweet
It is Thursday and things are shaping up.
3 plays Twins Texas Cubs Under
BOLTA
Grindstone thanks for your NBA play, that was sweet
It is Thursday and things are shaping up.
3 plays Twins Texas Cubs Under
BOLTA
Love this info
Love this info
ot pitchers
-- Wainwright is 3-1, 1.97 in four starts this season.
-- Kennedy has a 1.38 RA in his last two starts. Lilly threw six shutout innings at Miller Park in his first 2010 start.
-- Oswalt is 23-1, 2.58 in his career against the Reds; he spent most of last week in Mississippi, cleaning up his mom's home that was wrecked by a tornado Saturday.
-- San Diego won both LeBlanc starts (1-0, 0.82).
-- Dodgers won last three Kershaw starts (1-0, 2.45).
-- Pavano is 2-0, 1.93 in two road starts this season.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 2.66 in his last three starts. Matusz is 2-0, 4.38 in four starts this season.
-- Duchscherer is 2-0, 0.95 in his last three starts. Romero is 1-1, 1.80 in four starts this season.
-- Garza is 3-1, 2.48 in four starts this season.
Cold pitchers
-- Jurrjens is 0-2, 7.00 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 10.80 in his last three starts.
-- Davis is 0-1, 12.38 in two road starts this season.
-- Burres allowed six runs in four IP in his first '10 start.
-- Willis is 0-1, 4.24 in three starts this season.
-- Floyd is 0-2, 10.80 in his last three starts. Feldman is 0-2, 18.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Hochevar has a 6.62 RA in his last three starts.
Totals
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six games at Wrigley Field.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Cincinnati games.
-- Six of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Five of six Dodger home games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Detroit games.
-- Four of last five Texas home games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in Bronx Bomber road games.
-- Seven of last eight games in Toronto stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay home games went over the total.
Hot teams
-- Padres won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs won four of their last six games.
-- Cardinals won seven of nine home games.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last nine games.
-- Tampa Bay won 13 of its last 15 games.
-- Twins won eight of their last eleven road games.
Cold teams
-- Cincinnati lost five of its last seven road games. Astros are 5-9 this season at home.
-- Braves lost last eight games, scoring total of thirteen runs.
-- Dodgers lost six of their last seven games. Pirates are 2-7 in last nine games, but won last two in last inning.
-- Brewers lost five of their last six games.
-- Diamondbacks lost five of their last seven road games. .
-- Detroit lost four of its last five home games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost four of their last six games. Orioles are 4-17 this season, 1-7 at home.
-- Oakland lost its last four road games, outscored 25-11. Blue Jays lost six of their last seven games.
-- White Sox lost their last six road games. Rangers are 5-8 in their last thirteen games overal
Love this info
ot pitchers
-- Wainwright is 3-1, 1.97 in four starts this season.
-- Kennedy has a 1.38 RA in his last two starts. Lilly threw six shutout innings at Miller Park in his first 2010 start.
-- Oswalt is 23-1, 2.58 in his career against the Reds; he spent most of last week in Mississippi, cleaning up his mom's home that was wrecked by a tornado Saturday.
-- San Diego won both LeBlanc starts (1-0, 0.82).
-- Dodgers won last three Kershaw starts (1-0, 2.45).
-- Pavano is 2-0, 1.93 in two road starts this season.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 2.66 in his last three starts. Matusz is 2-0, 4.38 in four starts this season.
-- Duchscherer is 2-0, 0.95 in his last three starts. Romero is 1-1, 1.80 in four starts this season.
-- Garza is 3-1, 2.48 in four starts this season.
Cold pitchers
-- Jurrjens is 0-2, 7.00 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 10.80 in his last three starts.
-- Davis is 0-1, 12.38 in two road starts this season.
-- Burres allowed six runs in four IP in his first '10 start.
-- Willis is 0-1, 4.24 in three starts this season.
-- Floyd is 0-2, 10.80 in his last three starts. Feldman is 0-2, 18.00 in his last couple starts.
-- Hochevar has a 6.62 RA in his last three starts.
Totals
-- Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six games at Wrigley Field.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Cincinnati games.
-- Six of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Five of six Dodger home games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Detroit games.
-- Four of last five Texas home games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in Bronx Bomber road games.
-- Seven of last eight games in Toronto stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay home games went over the total.
Hot teams
-- Padres won ten of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs won four of their last six games.
-- Cardinals won seven of nine home games.
-- Red Sox won seven of their last nine games.
-- Tampa Bay won 13 of its last 15 games.
-- Twins won eight of their last eleven road games.
Cold teams
-- Cincinnati lost five of its last seven road games. Astros are 5-9 this season at home.
-- Braves lost last eight games, scoring total of thirteen runs.
-- Dodgers lost six of their last seven games. Pirates are 2-7 in last nine games, but won last two in last inning.
-- Brewers lost five of their last six games.
-- Diamondbacks lost five of their last seven road games. .
-- Detroit lost four of its last five home games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost four of their last six games. Orioles are 4-17 this season, 1-7 at home.
-- Oakland lost its last four road games, outscored 25-11. Blue Jays lost six of their last seven games.
-- White Sox lost their last six road games. Rangers are 5-8 in their last thirteen games overal
I don't have time to reseach all of the stats quoted, but I've seen this one in a couple of places
-- Oswalt is 23-1, 2.58 in his career against the Reds;
and wanted to make sure you realize that this is for games in which he had a decision, not in games where he started.
database only goes back to 2004, but in that timeframe, Oswalt is 16-5 vs. CIN.
team=Astros and starter='Roy Oswalt' and o:team=Reds
HOU was 1-3 last season agains CIN in games where Oswalt started (he did not have a decision in any of the games), so 15-2 going back before last season to 2004, but 1-3 last season.
Take Care,
Bart
-- Oswalt is 23-1, 2.58 in his career against the Reds;
and wanted to make sure you realize that this is for games in which he had a decision, not in games where he started.
database only goes back to 2004, but in that timeframe, Oswalt is 16-5 vs. CIN.
team=Astros and starter='Roy Oswalt' and o:team=Reds
HOU was 1-3 last season agains CIN in games where Oswalt started (he did not have a decision in any of the games), so 15-2 going back before last season to 2004, but 1-3 last season.
Take Care,
Bart
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Friday BOLTA
Friday BOLTA
WOW
RL Cards and Yanks
1/2's Nats KCR and Texas
Parlay Jazz and Yanks and Cards
Friday BOLTA
WOW
RL Cards and Yanks
1/2's Nats KCR and Texas
Parlay Jazz and Yanks and Cards
Okay, I said I would start adding some plays, even though I'm not really much of an MLB handicapper.
Here is what my plays are mostly going to be based on:
Historically, during the month of May, books have undervalued home teams, especially in the AL.
I have no reason to believe this won't continue, but I also don't know. Maybe someone alerted the books and they are now jacking up the lines on home teams in May.
What I -DO- know is that if you blindly bet every single home team during the month of May over the last 6 years (database only goes back to 2004), at 1 unit per game, you would be ahead 142.4 units.
You would have had 1 losing year, in 2007, when you would lost just under 1 unit, -0.8 units.
If you want to see the results
month=5 and site=home and season
The AL has fared better than the NL
month=5 and site=home and conference
AL +92.10
NL +50.30
The NL has had losing years. The AL has never had a losing year.
month=5 and site=home and conference and season
Record
W-L (marg, % win)
$ On
$ Against RL Record
W-L (marg, % win)
$ On
$ Against Over/Under
O-U-P (marg, % over)
$ Over
$ Under query
NL
0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) 0 0 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None conference=NL and season=2010
122-104 (-0.01, 54.0%) -430 -660 98-126 (-0.62, 43.8%) -1445 325 101-113-10 (0.22, 47.2%) -2030 185 conference=NL and season=2009
141-88 (0.28, 61.6%) 3025 -4040 106-123 (-0.54, 46.3%) 1325 -3020 103-110-16 (0.27, 48.4%) -1765 -330 conference=NL and season=2008
123-102 (0.04, 54.7%) -390 -600 97-128 (-0.79, 43.1%) -760 -1405 107-108-10 (0.25, 49.8%) -1135 -1210 conference=NL and season=2007
140-87 (0.71, 61.7%) 4230 -5300 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 110-103-13 (0.74, 51.6%) -175 -1760 conference=NL and season=2006
125-96 (0.37, 56.6%) 680 -1730 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 98-105-18 (0.40, 48.3%) -1670 -260 conference=NL and season=2005
112-108 (-0.05, 50.9%) -2085 860 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 98-110-12 (-0.10, 47.1%) -2300 220 conference=NL and season=2004
AL
0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) 0 0 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None conference=AL and season=2010
122-80 (0.63, 60.4%) 2035 -2955 94-107 (-0.15, 46.8%) 725 -1660 86-107-8 (0.20, 44.6%) -2985 1075 conference=AL and season=2009
117-76 (0.78, 60.6%) 2555 -3450 104-89 (0.15, 53.9%) 3675 -5020 79-108-6 (-0.17, 42.2%) -3885 2185 conference=AL and season=2008
108-88 (-0.01, 55.1%) 310 -1230 89-107 (-0.39, 45.4%) -1250 -760 84-97-15 (0.42, 46.4%) -3235 485 conference=AL and season=2007
113-83 (0.19, 57.7%) 820 -1790 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 101-85-9 (0.48, 54.3%) 875 -2570 conference=AL and season=2006
109-85 (0.49, 56.2%) 890 -1785 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 73-106-15 (0.05, 40.8%) -4220 2580 conference=AL and season=2005
112-79 (0.37, 58.6%) 2600 -3530 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 89-93-9 (0.58, 48.9%) -1330 -490 conference=AL and season=2004
Since today is the first day of May, but it isn't the start of new series, I'm not sure if I should just wait until the start of the next series (the historical data is just all of May, doesn't matter).
So, I'm going to be looking for home teams, when they look like they might be being undervalued.
There's no history of me being able to pick winners better than playing every game, so this is largely an experiment, although I hope it's a profitable one.
Good Luck,
Bart
Here is what my plays are mostly going to be based on:
Historically, during the month of May, books have undervalued home teams, especially in the AL.
I have no reason to believe this won't continue, but I also don't know. Maybe someone alerted the books and they are now jacking up the lines on home teams in May.
What I -DO- know is that if you blindly bet every single home team during the month of May over the last 6 years (database only goes back to 2004), at 1 unit per game, you would be ahead 142.4 units.
You would have had 1 losing year, in 2007, when you would lost just under 1 unit, -0.8 units.
If you want to see the results
month=5 and site=home and season
The AL has fared better than the NL
month=5 and site=home and conference
AL +92.10
NL +50.30
The NL has had losing years. The AL has never had a losing year.
month=5 and site=home and conference and season
Record
W-L (marg, % win)
$ On
$ Against RL Record
W-L (marg, % win)
$ On
$ Against Over/Under
O-U-P (marg, % over)
$ Over
$ Under query
NL
0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) 0 0 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None conference=NL and season=2010
122-104 (-0.01, 54.0%) -430 -660 98-126 (-0.62, 43.8%) -1445 325 101-113-10 (0.22, 47.2%) -2030 185 conference=NL and season=2009
141-88 (0.28, 61.6%) 3025 -4040 106-123 (-0.54, 46.3%) 1325 -3020 103-110-16 (0.27, 48.4%) -1765 -330 conference=NL and season=2008
123-102 (0.04, 54.7%) -390 -600 97-128 (-0.79, 43.1%) -760 -1405 107-108-10 (0.25, 49.8%) -1135 -1210 conference=NL and season=2007
140-87 (0.71, 61.7%) 4230 -5300 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 110-103-13 (0.74, 51.6%) -175 -1760 conference=NL and season=2006
125-96 (0.37, 56.6%) 680 -1730 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 98-105-18 (0.40, 48.3%) -1670 -260 conference=NL and season=2005
112-108 (-0.05, 50.9%) -2085 860 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 98-110-12 (-0.10, 47.1%) -2300 220 conference=NL and season=2004
AL
0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) 0 0 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None conference=AL and season=2010
122-80 (0.63, 60.4%) 2035 -2955 94-107 (-0.15, 46.8%) 725 -1660 86-107-8 (0.20, 44.6%) -2985 1075 conference=AL and season=2009
117-76 (0.78, 60.6%) 2555 -3450 104-89 (0.15, 53.9%) 3675 -5020 79-108-6 (-0.17, 42.2%) -3885 2185 conference=AL and season=2008
108-88 (-0.01, 55.1%) 310 -1230 89-107 (-0.39, 45.4%) -1250 -760 84-97-15 (0.42, 46.4%) -3235 485 conference=AL and season=2007
113-83 (0.19, 57.7%) 820 -1790 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 101-85-9 (0.48, 54.3%) 875 -2570 conference=AL and season=2006
109-85 (0.49, 56.2%) 890 -1785 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 73-106-15 (0.05, 40.8%) -4220 2580 conference=AL and season=2005
112-79 (0.37, 58.6%) 2600 -3530 0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) None None 89-93-9 (0.58, 48.9%) -1330 -490 conference=AL and season=2004
Since today is the first day of May, but it isn't the start of new series, I'm not sure if I should just wait until the start of the next series (the historical data is just all of May, doesn't matter).
So, I'm going to be looking for home teams, when they look like they might be being undervalued.
There's no history of me being able to pick winners better than playing every game, so this is largely an experiment, although I hope it's a profitable one.
Good Luck,
Bart
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Thanks Bart love to see your plays
Thanks Bart love to see your plays
Tonight
Nats Fish Over
Twins Indians Under
off the record I have a small play on KCR
Thanks Bart love to see your plays
Tonight
Nats Fish Over
Twins Indians Under
off the record I have a small play on KCR
All home teams for May 2010
7-1 (4.75, 87.5%) 600 -610 8-0 (4.00, 100.0%) 981 -1047 3-4-1 (-0.38, 42.9%) -125 60 NL
3-4 (-0.29, 42.9%) -405 305 1-6 (-1.36, 14.3%) -520 510 3-4-0 (1.07, 42.9%) -150 75 AL
combined 10-5 +195
combined RL 9-6 +461
for 5/2
ones that seem to offer more value
SFO
CLE
BAL
ones that would appear to be good fades
FLA (play WAS)
STL (play CIN)
LAD (play PIT)
NYY (play CWS)
TOR (play OAK)
7-1 (4.75, 87.5%) 600 -610 8-0 (4.00, 100.0%) 981 -1047 3-4-1 (-0.38, 42.9%) -125 60 NL
3-4 (-0.29, 42.9%) -405 305 1-6 (-1.36, 14.3%) -520 510 3-4-0 (1.07, 42.9%) -150 75 AL
combined 10-5 +195
combined RL 9-6 +461
for 5/2
ones that seem to offer more value
SFO
CLE
BAL
ones that would appear to be good fades
FLA (play WAS)
STL (play CIN)
LAD (play PIT)
NYY (play CWS)
TOR (play OAK)
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Obviously, I -SUCK- at this.
Home teams will go either 11-4 or 12-3
Of my 3 teams to play on, I managed to pick 2 of the 3 homes teams that have lost.
Of the teams that looked like they might be worth fading, I'm a "PERFECT" 0-5.
WOW.
On the upside, anyone who ignored my selections and just looked for home teams to play should have had a good day
Let's do it again tomorrow.
