WHY ORLANDO WINS
Howard doesn?t have to concentrate on defending Perkins so he can zone the lane and block beaucoup shots. Furthermore, with Carter on board, Howard doesn?t need to score big-time points for Orlando to win. He?s also quicker off his feet and much more athletic than Perkins and should dominate both boards.
The Celtics may have trouble defending Vince Carter.
Carter is too big and too creative for Ray Allen to stifle. VC has also learned the virtues of passing when his drives attract hostile crowds. If he can restrict himself to taking only good shots, Carter could be the difference.
Lewis?s shooting range is greater than Garnett?s defensive range. But he must stay focused and stay involved to put maximum pressure on KG.
Matt Barnes is a scrappy player who will constantly be in PP?s grill. The energetic Barnes should also be easily able to outdistance Pierce when Orlando can get out and go.
Pietrus and Barnes will play relentless defense against Pierce, and could eventually wear him down. Also, both of these guys are streaky 3-point shooters and could make Pierce pay dearly whenever he loses touch with them.
Redick is Ray Allen lite. Given solid screens, he can routinely knock down long-balls, and if he?s played too tightly, Redick can also find his way to the rim.
Marcin Gortat is best when setting screens and rolling hoopwards. He?s also a determined rebounder, and a defender who can cover a lot of ground.
For the Magic to prevail in this series, they must take care of the ball. That means making only short, crisp passes and avoiding risky cross-court and skip passes. Still, swift and sure ball- and player-movement must be executed to prevent the Celtics? defense from cutting their attack zone in half.
Hitting their treys is another must, as is rescuing more loose balls than Boston does. By assaulting their offensive glass Orlando can create desperately needed extra shots, and they can deny Boston the same bonus opportunities by also capturing the lion?s share of missed shots at the other end of the game.
Finally, Orlando?s vaunted defense will be sorely tested. Their rotations must be precise and mistake free. Howard has to be extremely judicious in his overriding eagerness to block every shot that he thinks he can reach.
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It seems simple enough