College Ball Super Regionals

[Mr. Poon]

YTD Record: 97-74 for +47.30 units

All in all not many upsets the first weekend. 13 #1 seeds advanced to the Supers including the top 6 national seeds. Three #2 seeds got the remaining super spots, so all clubs have good track wonders and aren?t here simply on a streak. Do think the dogs start coming out this weekend moreso than last. Playing these two for tomorrow?s games:

TCU +240 (@ Texas) for 2 units ? if the NCAA followed true seeding for the tourney, this two wouldn?t be facing each other. However, they try to pair up supers w/ regional hosts that are close to each other and we get matchups like this (very similar to Rice @ LSU last year). Despite TCU having a really good pitching staff, Texas has a clear edge on the mound. For the year they have a 2.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP as an entire STAFF ? simply unreal. Cole Green gets the start for them tomorrow (2.63 ERA; 1.01 WHIP; .214 OBA and 71 K?s in 106 IP). Green has been great all year and if he makes any mistakes TCU will need to take advantage. TCU does have a big advantage offensively as they have pop throughout their lineup and averaged almost 9 runs a game for the season. TCU sends to the mound frosh phenom Matt Purke (3.40 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; .226 OBA and 122 K?s in 95 1/3 IP). Purke had a lot of pressure/hype on his shoulders after turning away from 1st round $ and the Rangers in the ?09 draft and responded earning national Frosh of the year honors. His strikeout prowess will be a key as the Longhorns are a free-swinging club (avg. 7.6 K?s per game). For a team hitting only .289 and that wins a lot of close games, having a pitcher like Purke that can shut a down quickly on an opportunity is big. Texas is a very good team, but a dog at this price for the talent that TCU has, very appealing play.

Miami +150 (@ Florida) for 1 unit ? not a big play as neither team has announced their starting pitcher, but I believe it will be Chris Hernandez (Miami) vs. Alex Panteliodis (Florida). Despite Panetliodis and the Gators getting the better of Canes in an early season game (and series), I like Hernandez as the decidedly better pitcher of the two. The two clubs are really even offensively. Part of the reason I like the Canes in this game and actually in the series overall is that the Florida pitching staff, though a very solid staff, lacks any power strikeout pitchers besides their best reliever Chapman. Those are the type of pitchers that Miami really struggles against and they are swing some hot bats, so I expect them to put up some runs in this series.

Will look into the other 4 opening games that go-off on Saturday next.

GL guys

 

[shawn555]

Just got done looking at friday games, going to play all the dogs.

Tcu and Fullerton double plays.

Really like the price on Purke. +240 is well worth a shot. Texas does have the better offense and that should carry them to wins in game two and three.

FSU is 0-7 last seven game ones of the super regionals. Really think Vandy can take out FSU, Sonny Gray will be going for them on saturday.

Miami and Florida coaches are being silent on starters but think the Canes are worth a shot as a dog. I think Hernandez may be held back to saturday.

The fullerton Ucla series is going to be great. Fullerton has seemed to handle Ucla, and Noe has been great this year.

 

[shawn555]

atimes.com/sports/la-sp-ucla-fullerton-20100611,0,2422501.story
latimes.com
Cal State Fullerton seems to have UCLA's number
Bruins baseball teams are 3-18 against the Titans under Coach John Savage, who took over in 2005. UCLA plays host to Fullerton in an NCAA super regional this weekend.

By Chris Foster

5:00 PM PDT, June 10, 2010
Advertisement

Numbers don't lie.

UCLA's baseball team has been little more than a speed bump for Cal State Fullerton. All you have to do is go to the big box score.

In 2007, the Bruins toddled off to Fullerton for a super regional. They were sent right back home after being outscored, 14-3, in two losses to the Titans.

In 2008, the Bruins returned to Fullerton, beat the Titans in one game and needed only one more victory to advance. UCLA pitchers gave up 16 runs in two losses to Fullerton.

This has been the pattern since John Savage took over the UCLA program in 2005. The Bruins are 3-18 against the Titans under Savage.

So with UCLA set to face Fullerton in the best-of-three super regional, beginning Friday night at Jackie Robinson Stadium, the expected sound bites are rolling out of Westwood.

"I don't think it means anything, to be honest with you," UCLA pitcher Trevor Bauer said. "We don't put in anything as far as historical numbers. Those were different teams."

Yet, a peek behind that square-jaw stance was given by UCLA pitcher Rob Rasmussen, who said, "I'd be lying if I said it doesn't come to mind," when asked about Fullerton's dominance. He immediately went back to the team line, saying, "We're focused on ourselves, not who we're playing."

Somewhere between Bauer's "honest" statement and Rasmussen's "I'd be lying" admission is the straight scoop about how the Bruins look at a weekend series in which the winner goes to the College World Series.

The Bruins (46-13), seeded sixth overall, are a different team, a fact made clear by the school record for victories. But it would also be working from a stretch to say that things have changed completely. Fullerton (45-16) swept two games from UCLA this season.

"That question, I think, says a lot about them," Savage said when asked about his record against Fullerton. "They have beaten a lot of people. For whatever reason we have not been able crack that nut."

But, he added, "This is a new team, a new year and a new group of players."

The one-sided nature of the series has Fullerton players spinning just as fast as the Bruins, with the Titans looking to go to Omaha for the eighth time in the last 12 seasons.

"I think, because we had the opportunity to come out on top, and move on past them, they are going to be a lot more hungry," Titans outfielder Gary Brown said. "I'm not saying we're not hungry. We are just as hungry to get back to Omaha. But we understand that they don't want to be embarrassed and might feel disrespected by us because of our success."

The Bruins have fretted little about others this season, with that confident focused-on-ourselves mantra. That comes easy when you have a pitching staff that has the nation's second lowest earned-run average (2.94).

Fullerton may have won both games against UCLA this season, but the Titans did not face the Bruins' big three ? pitchers Gerrit Cole (10-2), Bauer (10-3) and Rasmussen (10-2). These three have been the Friday-Saturday-Sunday pitchers all season.

The Titans gave pitcher Garett Claypool (8-3) two of his three losses in midweek games.

"We played two good games against them and they came out on top," Savage said. "Weekends are a different environment, a different mind-set. The Friday-Saturday-Sunday series is a grind and what's what this will be."

Still, this is Fullerton, and Bruins players remember being ground up by the Titans in a postseason weekend series before.

Even though he battled back from injuries in 2008, Rasmussen carries a haunting memory from that season, when he lost the regional-deciding game to the Titans.

"There was that bitter feeling after we lost," Rasmussen said. "We had been ranked No. 1 in the preseason and had high expectations. Fullerton beat us in the super regional [in 2007] and we wanted that regional. We didn't get it."

Now the Bruins get yet another shot at the Titans and, "getting eliminated by Fullerton definitely motivates you," Rasmussen said.

chris.foster@latimes.com

twitter.com/cfosterlatimes

Copyright ? 2010, The Los Angeles Times

 

[sonyman]

TCU 3, Texas 1

GREAT CALL !!!

 

[njsammy]

Great call on TCU .... right on ... scrappy little team and that kid was a stud today .. good luck in rest of games :toast:

 

[Mr. Poon]

Good day going 1-1 but getting the TCU play for a decent +. A bit disappointed as I found out late tonight that betus had totals on games today. Will have to look for those tomorrow when they post their lines.

Updated Record: 98-75 for +51.10 units

Will be playing these two for sure and still doing the write-ups on the others:

Vandy +155 (@ FSU) for 3 units ? for two squads that are pretty even offensively, this play is all about the pitching. Sonny Gray has a 3.51 ERA; 1.35 WHIP; .243 OBA and 110 K?s in 102 2/3 IP. He actually had a bit of a slow start but came on down the stretch during the season. He didn?t have a good outing in the Regionals vs. Ville, but performed very well against quality opponents in his two starts before that. A big point to note in this matchup is that he keeps the ball in the park, only 3 HR?s allowed all year (1 being by Ville?s Wunderlich last weekend). That is important for FSU in their home park as they typically have more pop there. FSU counters with Brian Busch (4.24 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; 2.32 OBA and 68 K?s in 70 IP). Not terrible numbers, but those are really buoyed by much better performance in the non-conference part of FSU?s schedule. For conference play Busch had a 5.85 ERA; 1.60 WHIP and .273 OBA. He did well in his regional appearance against Central Connecticut State, but his last couple outings before that weren?t good and didn?t last long. Vandy have a much better pen also helps the Commodores chances of extending this series to a third game on Sunday.

Miami +160 (@ Florida) for 2 units ? shawn was right about Hernandez being held to Saturday. Really like the Canes Junior opposing one of two frosh Gators, Brian Johnson or Hudson Randall.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

Adding:

UVa -200 (vs. Oklahoma) for 1 unit ? Sooners are a decent team, but UVa has the edge in every facet. I?ve touted their ace pitcher Danny Hultzen several times throughout the season. He actually has had a couple of rough outings recently despite UVa getting the W?s in them. Think he can bounce back and get his team off to a win as they should win in two games in this super.

Arkansas +320 (@ ASU) for ? unit ? Sun Devils are a very solid club as the #1 overall seed. Arkansas got out of their regional after slumping down the stretch mainly due to some injuries. They have a bit of a chance in the opening game with their ace Drew Smyly going for them (2.56 ERA; 1.13 WHIP; .217 OBA and 108 K?s in 98 1/3 IP). Don?t expect them to have a chance in any other game against ASU.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

Adding:

Arky/ASU Under 11 for 2 units ? Two very good offensive clubs, but with Smyly and Blair going as well as 2 rested good pens, foresee a 5-3 type game.

UCLA -135 (vs. Fullerton) for 2 units ? play based on UCLA?s starter Trevor Bauer (2.72 ERA; 1.25 WHIP; .246 OBA and 135 K?s in 109 1/3 IP). Not sure if Fullerton will start Dylan Floro or Daniel Renken, both pretty good pitchers, but Bauer has a distinct edge on both of them. That combined with UCLA?s better pen, I like them to bounce back.

GL guys

 

[bulldog]

miami leading by 1 in 9th walks a man then error by 3rd basema and then error by ss with 2 out. how do you win a fucking ballgame.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Ugghhh, 3-3 on the night for a small gain, but very close to a big night. Miami was up in the 9th but blows it (and loses in the 10th). They had 7 Errors, so really wasted a great performance by Chris Hernandez. Arky also blows a 1 run lead in the 9th, that costs me that dog play as well as a push on the Under. Oh well.

UVa, Vandy and UCLA come through. UCLA on a back and forth contest that goes into extras as well, so I'll count my blessings from the ball gods on that one.

Updated Record: 101-78 for +54.05 units

 

[Mr. Poon]

For Sunday:

Coastal -120 (vs. S. Carolina) for 2 units ? think Coastal can extend this series to a 3rd game. They did great battling back in the regional in 3 straight elimination games so they are use to the pressure. Coastal has a slightly better offense, and I like their pitching edge too. Gamecocks go with Sam Dyson who has a 4.00 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; .243 OBA and 93 K?s 87 2/3 IP, and as seen by his #?s is solid. Coastal counters w/ a pitcher of equal quality, Cody Wheeler (3.59 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; .257 OBA and 111 K?s in 107 2/3 IP). In addition to Coastal having a bit better pen, they did a great job of using multiple guys in today?s game meaning everyone is basically available. Also they are using their other stud starter, Anthony Meo, in a relief role this week. So not only does USC have to get by Wheeler, but likely also Meo too. Will be a tough task and like the Chants in this one.

TCU +240 (vs. Texas) for 2 units ? another good pitching matchup in this series. Starting pitching is pretty even in my mind. Texas goes with Brandon Workman (3.43 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; .248 OBA and 97 K?s in 99 2/3 IP). Workman doesn?t get as much attention as some of his counterparts on the great Longhorn staff but he is a good pitcher. However, before a great performance against Rider in the regional, Workman wasn?t pitching well down the stretch of conference play. Think there is the chance he is vulnerable and the TCU bats can finally break out. TCU starts Kyle Winkler (3.05 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; .246 OBA and 84 K?s in 106 1/3 IP). He?s pitched well lately and think he can guide TCU to a historic win for their program.

Will look into the others in the morning.

GL guys

 

[OAKAS]

Have to agree with you on Coastal, Poon.

Watched the whole game on Saturday and they really should have won that game.

Look for them to extend the series to the third game.

 

[Mr. Poon]

No time for detail write-ups, but adding these:

Arkansas +300 (vs. ASU) for 1 unit ? Razorbacks ace Drew Smyly didn?t start last night, so he will go tonight against ASU?s #2 pitcher Kelly Merrill. Arkansas showed last night they can play with the Sun Devils, they cut down on the mistakes they can pull out a victory.

UCLA -170 (vs. Fullerton) for 2 units ? believe the Bruins pitching depth gets them to Omaha. Their #3 starter Rob Rasmussen doesn?t get much attention due to how good their first 2 guys are, but he pitched better then Cole and Bauer during conference play actually.

Bama +130 (vs. Clemson) for 3 units ? Nathan Kilcrease starts for Bama and he is their best pitcher. He moved from the pen to the starting rotation down the stretch to really help Bama right the ship and gets some key wins down the stretch. Scott Weismann goes for Clemson who is decent but not of the caliber of Kilcrease.

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

adding:

Arky/ASU Under 11.5 for 1 unit - small park, but with Smyly for the Razorbacks think this stays under.

TCU/Texas Under 11 for 3 units - even if it is the third game in the series, two good pitching staffs can keep this under.

 

[Dog lover]

Mr. Poon
Do you know the home team at Jackie Robinson stadium today?
TCU is the home team in Austin (determined by a coin flip.)
Thanks for your insight in NCAA bases.
DL

 

[Mr. Poon]

dog lover - I believe UCLA won the toss and will be the home team. I'm pretty certain I heard that in the telecast last night, but can't find anything online to back that up.

 

[Mr. Poon]

3-4 yesterday grinding out a couple of positive units. Won the UCLA game, TCU play as well as the Under in that game. Lost Bama, Coastal Arky and the Under in that game.

Updated Record: 104-82 for +56.35 units

2 games today, here's what I'm going with:

UVa -200 (vs. Oklahoma) for 2 units - think UVa's pitching depth gets them the lift and gets them to Omana. They will start Brandon Kline (3.14 ERA; 1.10 WHIP; .221 OBA and 55 K's in 63 IP). Kline was a mid-week starter for most of the year but got promoted to the weekend rotation late in the year when UVa's #3 guy started to falter. So some of his #'s are based off of week competition, but he has lodged decent starts against teams like Coastal and Miami. Sooners counter with Bobby Shore (4.23 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; .261 OBA and 72 K's in 83 IP). Shore has had good outings his last two times out, but was roughed up regularly towards the end of the season. I don't think either starter will put up a great performance but I think Kline and the deeper UVa pen will prove to be the key tol hold the Sooners in check enough. For what its worth, UVa will be the home team batting last.

Bama +165 (vs. Clemson) for 3 units - Kilcrease (2.42 ERA; 0.96 WHIP and 81 K's in 93 IP) didn't start yesterday afterall. Like him the same in this position today. Clemson is going with Frosh Dominic Leone (4.89 ERA; 1.61 WHIP; .300 OBA and 37 K's in 61 IP) who was not only hit hard in the regionals by Auburn, but also in his last two starts in conference play. I was tempted to go bigger on this, but Clemson does have the better pen and believe Leone will be chased early. Kilcrease is more than capable with an early lead in his hand. Bama will be the home team batting last in this game despite it being at Clemson's field.

GL guys

 

[Cie]

3-4 yesterday grinding out a couple of positive units. Won the UCLA game, TCU play as well as the Under in that game. Lost Bama, Coastal Arky and the Under in that game.

Updated Record: 104-82 for +56.35 units

2 games today, here's what I'm going with:

UVa -200 (vs. Oklahoma) for 2 units - think UVa's pitching depth gets them the lift and gets them to Omana. They will start Brandon Kline (3.14 ERA; 1.10 WHIP; .221 OBA and 55 K's in 63 IP). Kline was a mid-week starter for most of the year but got promoted to the weekend rotation late in the year when UVa's #3 guy started to falter. So some of his #'s are based off of week competition, but he has lodged decent starts against teams like Coastal and Miami. Sooners counter with Bobby Shore (4.23 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; .261 OBA and 72 K's in 83 IP). Shore has had good outings his last two times out, but was roughed up regularly towards the end of the season. I don't think either starter will put up a great performance but I think Kline and the deeper UVa pen will prove to be the key tol hold the Sooners in check enough. For what its worth, UVa will be the home team batting last.

Bama +165 (vs. Clemson) for 3 units - Kilcrease (2.42 ERA; 0.96 WHIP and 81 K's in 93 IP) didn't start yesterday afterall. Like him the same in this position today. Clemson is going with Frosh Dominic Leone (4.89 ERA; 1.61 WHIP; .300 OBA and 37 K's in 61 IP) who was not only hit hard in the regionals by Auburn, but also in his last two starts in conference play. I was tempted to go bigger on this, but Clemson does have the better pen and believe Leone will be chased early. Kilcrease is more than capable with an early lead in his hand. Bama will be the home team batting last in this game despite it being at Clemson's field.

GL guys

Good to see you on Bama. On Bama large:toast:

 

[Mr. Poon]

and Bama doesn't show up until a late 9th inning rally falls short.

adding a small play:

UVa/Oklahoma Under 11.5 for 1 unit

GL guys

 

[Mr. Poon]

a dud of a day going 1-2 only getting the small Under play.

Updated Record: 105-84 for +50.35 units