6-15 Baseball Wager Discussion Thread

[Lightning]

Thought this might be a nice daily discussion idea about games. Sort of a what and why you might like something or have a strong opinion about a game.

I'll start with my thoughts for tonight's card. Please feel free to add anything that might be helpful.

Thanks in advance.

Lightning

:com:

 

[Lightning]

Reds/Dodgers ... small lean to the Dodgers as a play tonight but I have nothing much to say about this one ... would like more insight if anyone has anything strong on this.

White Sox/Pirates ... noticed quite a few on the Chisox at the small price ... bad feeling so I will stay away from this one unless the line jumps in which case I would actually consider taking the Pirates at +130 or more.

Phillies/Yankees ... I am going to take the Phils with Halladay as a rare dog as he has had success against the Yankees and I see this as the Phils best shot to win a game in this series. Phils also tend to hit guys who throw hard better than junk ballers.

Tigers/Nationals ... small lean to the Nats as they are simply the better value and Lannan has pitched better lately. Liking this even more now.

Indians/Mets ... lean to the under as a play. Masterson has been very good last few starts but can the Indians get anything off Santana. Probably would lean to the Indians as the side as a small dog but have no confidence in them.

Marlins/Rangers ... I have watched Johnson pitch a few times lately. Rangers have the better lineup and Hamilton is on fire but Johnson has been almost unhittable lately and good pitching generally shuts down good hitting so I plan on playing the Marlins at home in this one. Also, Wilson started the season really strong but has been pretty hittable lately.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I like the M's/Cards O9 or 9'. Anything can happen in bases, but this SHOULD be a high-scoring game considering the two gascans on the mound. RRS was solid last year for the M's, but this year he's been a trainwreck. Throw in the fact that French only went 4 innings yesterday for the M's and the bullpen got used up, so even if RRS gets rocked I'm guessing they will leave him out there to take a lot of abuse.

On the other side, Suppan is brutal as well. The M's have one of the worst offenses in the majors so it's conceivable that he manages to pitch a good game, but they should be able to put up at least a few runs on him. I'm looking for at least 12 or 13 runs total tonight.

I also like the Halos -1' today. Big pitching advantage, better team, playing at home, coming off a loss... I think they get it done today.

GL

 

[Lightning]

Braves/Rays ... this line stinks in my opinion. Price has been great while Kawakami is 0-8 for the Braves. First look would have me all over the Rays but the low line has me thinking the Braves gets the $ at home. As much as I would love to play the Rays at this small price, these types of games theta look obvious always seem to lose. Anyone have any thoughts on this ... they would be much appreciated.

Red Sox/D'Backs ... Can't see playing either side ... too much juice to play on the Sox and I can't see backing the D'Backs at Boston here.

Cubs/Athletics ... Cubbies a small fav and at home but they are still not playing well and Zambrano has not turned on his usual mid-summer dominance yet. Can't see a value play here on either side.

Royals/Astros ... Paulino has pitched pretty well lately for the Astros but it's hard to back either team in this one.

Twins/Rockies ... Both teams 5-5 in last 10 games, Twins are 21-12 at home, Rockies are 14-18 o the road. Plan on taking the Twinkies here as a normal size play.

Cardinals/Mariners ... Seattle is an awful 9-23 on the road, Cards are 20-10 at home but have lost 6 off last 10 games. Both pitchers stink. Lean to the over and I guess the Cards but I am not sure I can lay -170 with Suppan.

 

[Lightning]

Thanks Glenn ... I just wrote pretty much the same thing about that Cards game right before I read your post. Also like the Angels ... here are the last 3 for the night.

Padres/Blue Jays ... small lean to the Padres as they are solid at home and Latos is a good pitcher plus they lost last night to the Jays. Cecil not bad either but the total is only 6 which I can't play under.

Angels/Brewers ... wish the line hadn't jumped from -154 to -177 but I am still taking the Angels. Santana has pitched well lately and the Halos are tough. Of course, no Morales the rest of the year and Aybar will miss tonights game too but I think they take out some frustration from last nights debacle on the Brew Crew tonight. Also could see the over in this one but not as strong.

Giants/Orioles ... Giants are 23-11 at home and 703 in last 10 games, O's are 6-26 on the road and 2-8 in the last 10. O's rookie Arrieta pitched decent in last start and got the win. Not familiar with Giants youngster Joe Martinez but I think I will take a shot with him tonight based purely on the much better team at home. Worth a shot.

Good Luck!

:com:

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

No problem. Good info on all the games. :0074

I like this idea. Guys like me can use all the help we can get. :142smilie

 

[IE]

austin jackson out for detroit:

Washington at Detroit (7:05pm ET)

Washington
AB R H RBI HR BB K SB LOB Season Avg
C. Guzman 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .304
N. Morgan cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .249
R. Zimmerman 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .306
A. Dunn dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .289
J. Willingham lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .273
I. Rodriguez c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .338
R. Bernadina rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .282
M. Morse 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .423
I. Desmond ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .276
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Detroit
AB R H RBI HR BB K SB LOB Season Avg
R. Raburn cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .165
J. Damon dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .294
M. Ordonez rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .312
M. Cabrera 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .330
B. Boesch lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .342
C. Guillen 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .299
B. Inge 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .253
G. Laird c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .160
D. Worth ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .257
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Washington
IP H R ER BB K HR WHIP Season ERA
J. Lannan 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.71 5.00
Detroit
IP H R ER BB K HR WHIP Season ERA
M. Scherzer 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.55 6.30

 

[IE]

questionable weather:

cubs

 

[Lightning]

austin jackson out for detroit:

Washington at Detroit (7:05pm ET)

Washington
AB R H RBI HR BB K SB LOB Season Avg
C. Guzman 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .304
N. Morgan cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .249
R. Zimmerman 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .306
A. Dunn dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .289
J. Willingham lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .273
I. Rodriguez c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .338
R. Bernadina rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .282
M. Morse 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .423
I. Desmond ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .276
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Detroit
AB R H RBI HR BB K SB LOB Season Avg
R. Raburn cf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .165
J. Damon dh 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .294
M. Ordonez rf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .312
M. Cabrera 1b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .330
B. Boesch lf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .342
C. Guillen 2b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .299
B. Inge 3b 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .253
G. Laird c 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .160
D. Worth ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .257
Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Washington
IP H R ER BB K HR WHIP Season ERA
J. Lannan 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.71 5.00
Detroit
IP H R ER BB K HR WHIP Season ERA
M. Scherzer 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.55 6.30

Thanks IE

I know Scherzer has been better since returning but I definitely think the Nats are worth a shot with this rising line. Nats +150 to $165 is plenty worthy of a play.

 

[King69]

Why the Rays line is low is easy.
ATL is 19-6 home and the Rays are 22-8 on the road.
I think the Braves have a rough time facing Price.

 

[IE]

A-Rod and more Yankees pregame


Brian Heyman here at Yankee Stadium, just up from the clubhouse.

A-Rod went through his pregame work and said, ?I felt OK. No setbacks.? He went to get more treatment and said he would talk to Joe Girardi about whether he will be available off the bench tonight. The injury has been described as hip flexor tendinitis, but Rodriguez said it really is more in the groin area. While Girardi said A-Rod would be back at third tomorrow night if everything went OK with the pregame routine, Rodriguez left open the possibility of serving as a DH tomorrow. He also wouldn?t blame any injury-related reason for having just eight homers this season. ?As far as my home runs, they?re just down. But the year?s not over yet. ?

With the Phillies in town, Chan Ho Park received his NL championship ring. ? The Phillies have flipped their rotation for the rest of the series. Jamie Moyer moves up to tomorrow and Kyle Kendrick will go Thursday night.

Here?s is Philadelphia?s lineup:

1. Shane Victorino CF

2. Chase Utley 2B

3. Placido Polanco 3B

4. Ryan Howard 1B

5. Jayson Werth RF

6. Raul Ibanez LF

7. Ben Francisco DH

8. Juan Castro SS

9. Carlos Ruiz C



Alex Rodriguez is out of the lineup but available to pinch hit. He plans to take ground balls and basically go through every other baseball drill known to man. Assuming he comes out of it just fine, Rodriguez will not only play tomorrow, he?ll start at third base.

Also, Sergio Mitre is on the disabled list with an oblique injury. Boone Logan has been recalled.

And of course, here?s the lineup.

Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Brett Gardner LF
Francisco Cervelli C
Ramiro Pena 3B

LHP CC Sabathia

 

[IE]

Pre-Game: Mets vs. Indians



by Michael Baron

The Mets (35-28) open a three game series tonight against the Indians (25-37) at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Game time is 7:05 pm.

The lineup is as follows:

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Angel Pagan CF
3. David Wright 3B
4. Ike Davis 1B
5. Jason Bay LF
6. Chris Carter DH
7. Rod Barajas C
8. Jeff Francoeur RF
9. Alex Cora 2B

Johan Santana (4-3, 2.96 ERA) will start for the Mets. Santana struggled in a loss to the Padres last week, going 6 2/3 innings but allowed four runs on eight hits. Lifetime against the Indians, Santana is 7-7 with a 3.42 ERA in 30 appearances and 20 starts.

Justin Masterson (2-5, 4.74 ERA) will start for the Indians. Masterson pitched a complete game, two hitter against the Red Sox last week, but has struggled overall this season, walking 4.6 batters per nine innings. Masterson has made one career appearance against the Mets, and it came in relief, allowing a run in three innings while with the Red Sox.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Great info, IE. Thanks!

 

[IE]

Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Rays (40-23) vs. Braves (37-27)
vs.


David Price
(2.23 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 3.57 BB/9, 6.36 K/9, 8 SwStr%)
(Career vs. ATL: First start)
vs.

Kenshin Kawakami
(4.48 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 2.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 7.1 SwStr%)
(Career vs. TB: First start)

Braves vs. Price:
Melky Cabrera: 2-6, 2B, RBI
Eric Hinske: 0-1

Rays vs. Kawakami:
None

What to Look For:
The pitching matchup appears pretty one-sided, but David Price has pitched around some trouble and has walked quite a few lately. Only Melky Cabrera has seen Price more than once, so I expect the Braves to be patient and make Price throw strikes while they see what he has. The Braves have been known to completely shut down against good lefties, so they need to buck the trend here.



My Take on the Opposition:
It's not difficult to take away from a 2.23 ERA when your xFIP is 4.38. David Price has been lucky this season, posting a .247 BABIP and 81% LOB%. His K/BB is actually worse than last year. But you can say he isn't giving up as many home runs and is getting the ball on the ground more. Price is due for regression and as long as he continues walking as many as he strikes out as he has over his past several starts, it will happen soon enough. He allowed one run on four hits in six innings against the Blue Jays last time out, walking five and striking out four.

Bobby confirmed the meeting with Chipper as dealing with retirement. It seems to be pretty much a done deal and all that's left is an announcement. But I'm not putting this into stone until that comes.

 

[Lightning]

I know it's too many games but here are the final plays for me tonight. I really spent a lot of time today so I feel like I am making good decisions.

Dodgers (-120) ... 1 unit
Phillies (+110) ... 1 unit
Nationals (+160) ...1 unit
Indians (+130) ... 1/2 unit
Marlins (-160) ... 1 unit
Marlins -1.5 (+140) ... 1/2 unit
Royals (-120) ... 1/2 unit
Twins (-150) ... 1 unit
Cardinals -1.5 (+120) ...1 unit
Cards/Mariners over 9.5 ... 1 unit
Padres (-120) ... 1/2 unit
Angels -1.5 (+110) ...1 unit
Giants (-150) ... 1 unit
Giants/Orioles over 8.5 ... 1 unit

Parlay
Cardinals/Angels .... 3/4 units for 1 unit

WTF Parlay
Marlins/Red Sox/Twins/Cards/Angels ... 1/2 unit

GOOD LUCK!

:com: :com: :com:

 

[IE]

Mariners Designate Ian Snell For Assignment
By Ben Nicholson-Smith

The Mariners designated Ian Snell for assignment and called up Brian Sweeney, according to the team. Snell, who came to Seattle last summer in the Jack Wilson trade, started respectably for the Mariners, but has been ineffective of late. He has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four appearances with 11 walks, five strikeouts and a 11.77 ERA in that time.

For the season, the 28-year-old right-hander has a 6.41 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 46.1 innings. Snell got off to a similar start last year before the Pirates demoted him to Triple A and saw him dominate for six starts. Snell has promise, but his recent struggles suggest he isn't close to fulfilling it.

 

[IE]

Game Sixty-Four: Cubs (28-35) vs. A's (32-33)
Game Time - 7:05pm CDT

Carlos Zambrano (2-4, 6.05/1.70) vs. Trevor Cahill (5-2, 2.91/1.15)

Updated - 5:18pm CDT - John Grabow Activated from 15-day DL - Mitch Atkins Optioned to Triple-A Iowa.

Weather permitting ... Can the Chicago Cubs win two games in a row? The last time the Cubs posted back-to-back wins was May 23 and May 25. Lou Piniella's crew completed the series win in Texas then beat the Dodgers in the first game at Wrigley. That was the last time the Cubs posted more than a single win ... and the last time the Cubs won a series (two of three against LA).

It is been a long time since the Cubs showed any positive consistency.

The Oakland A's will play their second series at Wrigley Field since Interleague play began. The last time the Athletics played a series at Wrigley was back in 2004 ... and the Cubs took two of three then. Can they repeat the feat six years later?

Several familiar names will make their return to Wrigley tonight. Eric Patterson and Michael Wuertz along with former Cub farmhand Jerry Blevins. The most notable ex-Cub, Jake Fox, was DFA'd by Oakland on Sunday afternoon.

The Cubs will face Gio Gonzalez Wednesday night and Dallas Braden Thursday afternoon ... Lou's crew will miss Ben Sheets. Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells will start the other two games of the series.

Carlos Zambrano will make only his second home start of the season tonight. Big Z received a no-decision against the Brewers back on tax day (April 15) ... the Cubs lost the game 8-6.

John Grabow is expected to be activated before game time with Mitch Atkins optioned back to Iowa. Grabow picked up in Iowa where he left off with the big league team ... and Grabow continues to prove how bad his signing was in the off-season. Grabow is one of the latest free-agent signings that could have been avoided if the Cubs did a better job of evaluating their own minor league talent.

The Cubs are 3-3 in Interleague play so far this year ... and maybe during the day off the Cubs remembered how to hit the baseball with runners in scoring position

Tonight it all starts with Carlos Zambrano ...


Carlos Zambrano is coming off his second win of the season ... but the Cubs' lone victory in Milwaukee had little to do with Big Z. Zambrano did not throw the ball well. He departed after five innings, five walks and three runs allowed. Zambrano allowed only two hits, but one was a double to Randy Wolf that almost left the park.

Zambrano is in need of a solid outing tonight ... and his team is in need of a win.

Big Z is 0-1 in nine games, one start, at home this season with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. Teams are hitting a robust .304 against him at Wrigley.

Tonight will be Zambrano's second career start against the Athletics. Z is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Big Z beat the A's on June 20, 2004 and allowed one run on five hits with four walks and eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings.

A's Career Numbers against Carlos Zambrano

* Rajai Davis 1-for-4 with a double
* Gabe Gross - 2-for-9 with a double and 5 walks
* Kevin Kouzmanoff - 1-for-8 with a triple
* Adam Rosales - 1-for-3 with a walk

The Cubs will get their first look at Trevor Cahill tonight. The 22-year old right-hander is having an excellent season for Oakland. Cahill is 1-0 in his last two starts with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP ... after posting a 4-1 record in six starts in May with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Cahill has walked just 19 batters in 55 2/3 innings.

Cahill has been very effective on the road as well. In five road starts, Cahill is 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA and a lower WHIP (1.10 to 1.21) than at home.

Trevor Cahill is coming off an impressive eight-inning performance against the Angels. He allowed just one run on six hits with a walk and four strikeouts.

Marlon Byrd (4-for-10 with two doubles and a walk) is the only player on the Cubs' roster that has ever faced Trevor Cahill.

 

[Lightning]

Great info IE!

I hope this thread helps everyone.

Your info has reinforced my decision to back the Nats and also to lay off the D'Rays/Braves and Cubs/A's games.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Good thing I took the over in the Sea/St. Lou game. They are going to be lucky to get to 5 runs in that game the way they are going. :scared