(except the cubs and wakefield, major DO NOT PLAYs)
could be a really good night or a really bad night. hopefully the rox can take it to a rubber game. but starting 5-1 ont he series bets last night was good after dropping 4 of 5 over the weekend. only 1 under play today and i don't love it. don't usually play a home team -1.5 and and an under, but if JJ does his job and the braves can score 3 or 4 it should be an easy going night at turner field. think 4-1 braves:0074, 5-3 if it pushes. braves are 47-10 when scoring 4+ this year, including 2 Ws at SD in april scoring 6 against SD's two best SPs.
if they manage to get 5, it'll push em to 36-1 when scoring 5+. would love to see them build a 7 or 8 game lead this month.
brew crew
rockies:0074
rangers:0074
reds:mj06:
phillies +173 $1
PP-1.5 +280 $.20
phi/stl over7.5 -120 $1.50 :firing:w+$1.25
i know not to bet against a streak. the cards have won 6 in a row and 7 of 8. but i circled this on the sheet when the opening lines came out. +180 was silly. it's down to +173, but that's a play that only requires a 37% win rate. yeah, carpenter went 8 last time out, but it was against the dodgers who only made him throw 101 pitches and didn't draw a single walk. moyer did get rocked in wrigley and turner last 2 times out, but he's very capable of shutting a team down. this line's 50pts too high, it's artificially high due to STL's 6W streak and PHI's L 4of5. philly's too good a team to draw a +170. if it was wainwright v kendrick, i could see it, but it's not.
for some real value, a philly/sanfran 2-teamer pays +448!
PHI/SF +448 $.50
:bigun:
timmy5in +103 $1
gigantes +110 $1 w+$1.10
danks 5in-129 $1.29 :firing:w+$1
whitesox -117 $1.17 w+$1
chisoxRL +140 $1 :firing: w+$1.40
NYY/chisox/braves +314 $.50
NYY/twinkies/reds +260 $.75
braves -150 $1.50 w+$1
atl RL +146 $.50 w+$.73
under8 +103 $1 w+$1.03
mauer&co. 5inning -167 $1.67 :facepalm:push
clev/minny 5in ov5 -123 $1.85 :firing::0032i hate the twins.
tribe/twinks over9 -125 $3.75 :bigun:biggest single play of the year(non-srs) :mj06:
MILW/TB/CUBS +300 $.50
rays/o's over9 +102 $1.33 w+$1.36
jays/royals over9.5 -130 $1.95 :firing: w+$1.50
arz 5in +110 $.70 w+$.77
dbacks +116 $.75 w+$.87
arz-1.5 +214 $.50
36.61 / 27
srs 4-0 +$8.90
und 1-0
fav 2-0
5inn 2-2-1
dog 2-1 +$0.97
RLs 2-2
ovr 3-1
par 0-4 -$2.25
prp
atl 3-0 +2.76
cws 4-0 +5.90
series:
rangers-120 $2.40 2-0 w+$2.00
chi sox -120 $3.00 2-0 w+$2.50
redlegs -165 $3.30 2-0 w+$2.00
sanfran +120 $2.00 2-0 w+$2.40
brews -130 $2.60 1-1
rockies -125 $2.50 1-1
today... :clap: 16-10-1 +$11.36
this wk... 26-17-3 +$16.18
last wk... 33-42-0 +$0.78
wk14... 60-34-3 +$53.33
wk13... 28-34-1 +$0.33
wk12... 33-34-0 +$11.37
wk11... 38-49-3 +$2.19
wk10.. 26-55-2 -$32.66
wk9.... 64-68-3 +$9.39
wk8.... 49-49-2 +$6.57
wk7.... 44-36-4 +$10.85
wk6.... 59-28-2 +$55.63
wk5.... 58-47-5 +$18.68
wk4.... 42-40-1 +$12.01
wk3.... 61-69-7 -$18.99
wk2.... 60-63-5 -$4.31
wk1.... 72-56-3 +$24.58
010mlb...760-731-45 +$165.93
avg play (2037.27/1536)=$1.33
ROI $8.15
apr 235-228-16 +$13.30
may 227-189-14 +$87.02
jun 163-205-8 -$19.23
srs 76-52-0 (59.38%) +$51.45
fav 128-75
5in 112-76-18
und 180-165-19 52.17%
dog 69-85 +$7.83
par 48-129 +$27.85
rLs 80-81 +$9.55 [@123.6 july20]
ovr 44-31-3 58.67%
prp 26-33-4
atl 56-52-3 +$0.91
cws 65-53-2 +$20.41
...
10spg 79-83-13 (48.77%) -$5.25
09mlb 496-454-31 (52.16%)
08mlb 574-385-11 (59.85%)
07mlb 586-392-16 (59.92%)
matchbook|bodog|5dimes
go braves!
go white sox! :box2:
could be a really good night or a really bad night. hopefully the rox can take it to a rubber game. but starting 5-1 ont he series bets last night was good after dropping 4 of 5 over the weekend. only 1 under play today and i don't love it. don't usually play a home team -1.5 and and an under, but if JJ does his job and the braves can score 3 or 4 it should be an easy going night at turner field. think 4-1 braves:0074, 5-3 if it pushes. braves are 47-10 when scoring 4+ this year, including 2 Ws at SD in april scoring 6 against SD's two best SPs.
if they manage to get 5, it'll push em to 36-1 when scoring 5+. would love to see them build a 7 or 8 game lead this month.
brew crew
rockies:0074
rangers:0074
reds:mj06:
phillies +173 $1
PP-1.5 +280 $.20
phi/stl over7.5 -120 $1.50 :firing:w+$1.25
i know not to bet against a streak. the cards have won 6 in a row and 7 of 8. but i circled this on the sheet when the opening lines came out. +180 was silly. it's down to +173, but that's a play that only requires a 37% win rate. yeah, carpenter went 8 last time out, but it was against the dodgers who only made him throw 101 pitches and didn't draw a single walk. moyer did get rocked in wrigley and turner last 2 times out, but he's very capable of shutting a team down. this line's 50pts too high, it's artificially high due to STL's 6W streak and PHI's L 4of5. philly's too good a team to draw a +170. if it was wainwright v kendrick, i could see it, but it's not.
for some real value, a philly/sanfran 2-teamer pays +448!
PHI/SF +448 $.50
:bigun:
timmy5in +103 $1
gigantes +110 $1 w+$1.10
danks 5in-129 $1.29 :firing:w+$1
whitesox -117 $1.17 w+$1
chisoxRL +140 $1 :firing: w+$1.40
NYY/chisox/braves +314 $.50
NYY/twinkies/reds +260 $.75
braves -150 $1.50 w+$1
atl RL +146 $.50 w+$.73
under8 +103 $1 w+$1.03
mauer&co. 5inning -167 $1.67 :facepalm:push
clev/minny 5in ov5 -123 $1.85 :firing::0032i hate the twins.
tribe/twinks over9 -125 $3.75 :bigun:biggest single play of the year(non-srs) :mj06:
MILW/TB/CUBS +300 $.50
rays/o's over9 +102 $1.33 w+$1.36
jays/royals over9.5 -130 $1.95 :firing: w+$1.50
arz 5in +110 $.70 w+$.77
dbacks +116 $.75 w+$.87
arz-1.5 +214 $.50
36.61 / 27
srs 4-0 +$8.90
und 1-0
fav 2-0
5inn 2-2-1
dog 2-1 +$0.97
RLs 2-2
ovr 3-1
par 0-4 -$2.25
prp
atl 3-0 +2.76
cws 4-0 +5.90
series:
rangers-120 $2.40 2-0 w+$2.00
chi sox -120 $3.00 2-0 w+$2.50
redlegs -165 $3.30 2-0 w+$2.00
sanfran +120 $2.00 2-0 w+$2.40
brews -130 $2.60 1-1
rockies -125 $2.50 1-1
today... :clap: 16-10-1 +$11.36
this wk... 26-17-3 +$16.18
last wk... 33-42-0 +$0.78
wk14... 60-34-3 +$53.33
wk13... 28-34-1 +$0.33
wk12... 33-34-0 +$11.37
wk11... 38-49-3 +$2.19
wk10.. 26-55-2 -$32.66
wk9.... 64-68-3 +$9.39
wk8.... 49-49-2 +$6.57
wk7.... 44-36-4 +$10.85
wk6.... 59-28-2 +$55.63
wk5.... 58-47-5 +$18.68
wk4.... 42-40-1 +$12.01
wk3.... 61-69-7 -$18.99
wk2.... 60-63-5 -$4.31
wk1.... 72-56-3 +$24.58
010mlb...760-731-45 +$165.93
avg play (2037.27/1536)=$1.33
ROI $8.15
apr 235-228-16 +$13.30
may 227-189-14 +$87.02
jun 163-205-8 -$19.23
srs 76-52-0 (59.38%) +$51.45
fav 128-75
5in 112-76-18
und 180-165-19 52.17%
dog 69-85 +$7.83
par 48-129 +$27.85
rLs 80-81 +$9.55 [@123.6 july20]
ovr 44-31-3 58.67%
prp 26-33-4
atl 56-52-3 +$0.91
cws 65-53-2 +$20.41
...
10spg 79-83-13 (48.77%) -$5.25
09mlb 496-454-31 (52.16%)
08mlb 574-385-11 (59.85%)
07mlb 586-392-16 (59.92%)
matchbook|bodog|5dimes
go braves!
go white sox! :box2:
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