Big series bet, set up to hedge

DZ

DZ

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Playing the Twinkies +130 for the series. I'm basically betting that they win one of the next two games and then I can hedge with the ChiSox on Thursday when I expect them to be a dog of +120 or better with Liriano on extended rest going against Floyd who does not have a great BAA against the Twins. I won't say it's free money because the Twins could always drop 2 in a row, but with the game at basically a pick tonight I see the same possibility on the opposite side where they win 2 in a row and I won't even have to hedge. These teams are very evenly matched, even without Morneau, and the only other advantage the Sox have here is homefield, so for them to be at -150 for the series seems a bit high to me. I'll take my chances that they drop one of the first two here.

GL

-Deez
 
DZ

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Also forgot to mention that I am playing on what I feel is the hotter team right now which, to me, provides an extra edge to the line of +130 for the series.
 
Chadman

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Number is probably close, all things considered, but you have some good points. I'm on the Twins tonight small, but am not sold on the pitching matchup in either of the first two games. I think the Sox probably value this series more, Perkins is a guess for tomorrow's matchup, and Garcia has been better than Baker against the opposition.

Twins are REALLY hitting the ball right now, though. Tough to bet against them to lose any series, until they stop hitting. Good luck to you.
 
DZ

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Chadman said:
Number is probably close, all things considered, but you have some good points. I'm on the Twins tonight small, but am not sold on the pitching matchup in either of the first two games. I think the Sox probably value this series more, Perkins is a guess for tomorrow's matchup, and Garcia has been better than Baker against the opposition.

Twins are REALLY hitting the ball right now, though. Tough to bet against them to lose any series, until they stop hitting. Good luck to you.
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Chadman, would you agree that if the ChiSox were to win tomorrow, that they would most likely be underdogs in the rubber match with Liriano on the mound? What would your predicted line be?
I'd have to say it'd be around +125.
 
DZ

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tig3rs said:
floyd +125 at home? really?

i have it at floyd -115.
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Looks like it opened at Sox -125, so I was way off. Early money is on the Twins so it's already moved the Sox side down to -110 in most places.

Anybody have any opinions on where this line might be in the morning? I'm hoping for more money to come in on the Twins.
 
T

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told ya, floyd at home... no way he's a dog. lvsc opened it at -120.
can get -107 tonight on 5dimes. the public loves the twins, blah blah. i'm taking some now and saying thank you.
as well as waiting for the juiced up 7.5 handle to flip to 8. at 8 i hammer the 5inning under 4 and the game under 8.

can't bet against these two guys. not in this spot. gavin's been down right unhittable for 2 months. including at the twins. he did give up 7 hits in 5+ 3wks ago @MIN but only 1 double and struck out 5.
with the way both of these guys keep the ball down, i'm not worried about the bleachers gettin any souveniers.
 
DZ

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tig3rs said:
told ya, floyd at home... no way he's a dog. lvsc opened it at -120.
can get -107 tonight on 5dimes. the public loves the twins, blah blah. i'm taking some now and saying thank you.
as well as waiting for the juiced up 7.5 handle to flip to 8. at 8 i hammer the 5inning under 4 and the game under 8.

can't bet against these two guys. not in this spot. gavin's been down right unhittable for 2 months. including at the twins. he did give up 7 hits in 5+ 3wks ago @MIN but only 1 double and struck out 5.
with the way both of these guys keep the ball down, i'm not worried about the bleachers gettin any souveniers.
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Thanks for your thoughts tig3ers. You called it on Floyd. Obviously you like the under, but you don't think the line on the Sox will go down any more? Trying to decide whether to wait on it or not. Maybe, just sit on the Twins since I seem to have pretty good value at +130 at this point.
 
T

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oh, yeah no doubt. stick with it. i'd have taken twins +140 for the series if i wasn't a sox fan. (i know it's irrational, but i just don't make those plays.) i think today's line is right on at -115 and find no value in it. -107 i'll bit a little.

well the line hasn't moved in the direction i'd hoped, so i'm buying the u8 -120 and UNDER4.5 -125---i didn't think this would be posted! thought it'd be 3.5 and 4. :bigun:
 
DZ

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Man am I glad I stuck to my guns and stayed with the Twins. I figured I had the value at +130 rather then taking the small guaranteed profit on the hedge, which is what I typically like to set myself up with on these series bets.

Tig3rs, nice call on the under. Floyd had to get hit sometime though (Twins have had success against him in the past).

I'll take the win in this one and look towards the upcoming weekend series.
 
T

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what an awful game all the way around. sox left 10 on base. gavin hangs his last pitch that barely goes out. i swore that something was gonna blow up in the 9th and it was gonna go over just to ruin it all.

but gavin had the curveball workin for most of the game and liriano had the sliddy gettin em to swing at air. just as expected on those fronts, glad we got the 5inn and game unders. cha ching.
 
bleedingpurple

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tig3rs said:
what an awful game all the way around. sox left 10 on base. gavin hangs his last pitch that barely goes out. i swore that something was gonna blow up in the 9th and it was gonna go over just to ruin it all.

but gavin had the curveball workin for most of the game and liriano had the sliddy gettin em to swing at air. just as expected on those fronts, glad we got the 5inn and game unders. cha ching.
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I can't believe Guillen didn't pull Flloyd when Kubel came up. The homerun was hit on th 125th pitch. Flloyd was gassed.. If Baker and Slowey (comes back) and continues to pitch the way the have over past 4 starts then the Twins win thsi division by 3- 5 games.. Thome has been a Godsend for this team with Morneau out.:0008
 
T

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in reality, it was about the 117th pitch, he intentionally walked mauer twice and had some long bottom halves to rest. he was still thorwing 92 when he struck out hudson and he threw a lot of curveballs, he doesn't throw straight heat all the time. and he's had it kinda light recently, very good, very efficient.
i'm not down on ozzie for leaving him in. he was 8 feet from gettin him. anyone who watched knows it was a cheapy off a rolling curveball. oh well. can't win em all.

but purple, i wouldn't get too excited about that division title just yet... schedule's pretty balanced outside the division for both (sox get DET 4 more than minny in divisional play), but those last 3 weeks, minny's on the road for 12/22, sox at home for 16/22.
DOWN TO THE LAST WEEKEND! sox have cleveland for 3, twinks have toronto for 4. :0074: (or at least the 16th of september back here on the south side)

man i love baseball.
 
bleedingpurple

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tig3rs said:
in reality, it was about the 117th pitch, he intentionally walked mauer twice and had some long bottom halves to rest. he was still thorwing 92 when he struck out hudson and he threw a lot of curveballs, he doesn't throw straight heat all the time. and he's had it kinda light recently, very good, very efficient.
i'm not down on ozzie for leaving him in. he was 8 feet from gettin him. anyone who watched knows it was a cheapy off a rolling curveball. oh well. can't win em all.

but purple, i wouldn't get too excited about that division title just yet... schedule's pretty balanced outside the division for both (sox get DET 4 more than minny in divisional play), but those last 3 weeks, minny's on the road for 12/22, sox at home for 16/22.
DOWN TO THE LAST WEEKEND! sox have cleveland for 3, twinks have toronto for 4. :0074: (or at least the 16th of september back here on the south side)

man i love baseball.
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Oh I understand that but Baker and Slowey been damn good of late. If they keep it up the Twins ROLL!!! Now that is lot to expect though.. I think Sx have a lot of east coast teams left and Twinks are pretty much done .. I will have to check..
 
T

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7 v BOS, 4 at home. 3 v NYY at home. 3 v BAL at home. i'm not that worried. i'd be worried about minny's pitchers not named liriano down in texas for 4 days. i don't see a big twins advantage.

comparable sets:
MIN: 4@TEX,3vTEX
CWS: 4vBOS,3@BOS

MIN: 4vTOR
CWS: 4 extra vDET

MIN: 3vOAK
CWS: 3vBAL

just one 3-game adv here...
MIN: 3@SEA
CWS: 3vNYY

otherwise, schedule's are identical. gonna be fun to watch!


baltimore's not gonna keep it up, not on the road v good teams. @TB, @CWS, @LAA this month, after they get 4 v TEX at home. they had a nice little profitable run, but that's all it was.
now i will DEFINITELY be taking them at home mon-wed v the mariners. cleveland's a -115 series fave this wknd with SEA in town, i think baltimore at even $ to win 2 of 3 is money in the bank!
 
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