NCAAF wk1
- Thread starter Cie
- Start date
The only thing that I don't like about this play is the look ahead to Georgia next week, which you mentioned....Don't think Spurrier will show everything this week....
Thanks, sir. I wrestled with deciding between the under and the fav for that very reason. Here's to hoping that SC doesn't need to show everything
Kick some butt this season:toast:
Wk 1 initial leans:
Ohio St un47.5
NIU +3
NW un44
mem +21
Conn +3
NMex +34-
KSU +2
Utah St +31-
Bama un51.5
LSU un40
UL-L +28
Va Tech +2.5
GL:weed:
Ohio St un47.5
NIU +3
NW un44
mem +21
Conn +3
NMex +34-
KSU +2
Utah St +31-
Bama un51.5
LSU un40
UL-L +28
Va Tech +2.5
GL:weed:
If I was going to play this game, this is what I would play it at not the -14 I initially saw. I was told that I would be buying a point for no reason.
Good luck! :toast:
Just curious, who told you that you would be buying a point for no reason:shrug:
Either way, I try to avoid buying points, and even moreso in a situation like this one. It is simply not worth the 10 cent vig to buy from -14 to -13.5
I was pleased to grab it at -13.5 when then line dipped.
That's cool.
As I've said in the past, I don't claim to be an expert capper. First games of the year are usually either plays I feel strong about or just hunches. I may be completely wrong, but really feel like this could be a 28-14 type game with USM getting the backdoor push at +14.
First game of the season usually scares the be-jesus out of most when the talent is closely matched. LSU has more talent, and your QB has a chance to make a statement for the season with a good opening performance. I wish your team well and you a prosperous Season :toast:
Someone asked for my opinion on the LSU UNC game, so here it is......
As is widely known, LSU has more talent on paper in their 2 deep, but UNC has tons of talent in the starting lineup and have a massive experience edge.
LSU O vs UNC D
LSU OL has only 1 returning starter playing same position as last year, although the OL should be formidable upgrade from last season's dissapointment, from what I am being told. Still, this line will have played no real game action together when they meet the outstanding UNC defensive front. UNC secondary is vulnerable, and my guess is LSU will use the pass to set up the run, as the alternative would seem unlikely. With inexperience on the OL, facing a top level defensive front, Jordan Jefferson would have to play well above any level that he has played at over the past season and a half for LSU to even consider moving the football. LSU has a bounty of weapons at WR and a stud receiving TE, as one would imagine, but the ? is whether Jefferson will take a huge step forward in his 2nd full season as a starter. Spring and Summer info on Jefferson is that he has been up and down.
UNC O vs LSU D
UNC offense should not scare anyone, and I get the feeling that they will have a hard time against a young, but fast LSU D. The UNC OL was not good last year, and Yates was not impressive by any means. Unless the OL steps it up this season, Yates will likely remain an erratic decision-maker. LSU will play a nickel base regularly until Ryan Baker returns to his LB spot in order to get their best 11 on the field. This is the LSU D's 2nd season under Chavis, so I expect another step towards becoming an elite defensive unit.
I often look for overvalued teams and fade them when facing undervalued teams. This, along with matchups up front, QB play and emotional/situational edge, makes up the basis of my capping.
In this game, I see LSU as being undervalued publicly while UNC is being over-hyped. Les Miles is a national joke now (has been a joke in Baton rouge since 2006-07) for good reason, but the addition of Gonzalez and Wilson to the staff have helped morale in the locker room. These guys also provide a bridge between the payers and Miles and Crowton, who appear to be somewhat out of touch. Meanwhile, Butch Davis is being called a genius, despite his 11-13 record in the mediocre ACC the past 3 seasons.
I give the edge in the trenches to UNC based on experience, but give the nod to Jefferson at QB (threw less than half the INTs as Yates last season). The emotional edge I give the LSU, who are ranked low, if at all, in all polls, and are looking to rebound from 9-4 a year ago. UNC has dealt with turmoil all offseason, and will likely play without an offensive and defensive star.
No play for me on the side, although I would expect a low-scoring affair. First team to 20 wins! GL:weed:
As is widely known, LSU has more talent on paper in their 2 deep, but UNC has tons of talent in the starting lineup and have a massive experience edge.
LSU O vs UNC D
LSU OL has only 1 returning starter playing same position as last year, although the OL should be formidable upgrade from last season's dissapointment, from what I am being told. Still, this line will have played no real game action together when they meet the outstanding UNC defensive front. UNC secondary is vulnerable, and my guess is LSU will use the pass to set up the run, as the alternative would seem unlikely. With inexperience on the OL, facing a top level defensive front, Jordan Jefferson would have to play well above any level that he has played at over the past season and a half for LSU to even consider moving the football. LSU has a bounty of weapons at WR and a stud receiving TE, as one would imagine, but the ? is whether Jefferson will take a huge step forward in his 2nd full season as a starter. Spring and Summer info on Jefferson is that he has been up and down.
UNC O vs LSU D
UNC offense should not scare anyone, and I get the feeling that they will have a hard time against a young, but fast LSU D. The UNC OL was not good last year, and Yates was not impressive by any means. Unless the OL steps it up this season, Yates will likely remain an erratic decision-maker. LSU will play a nickel base regularly until Ryan Baker returns to his LB spot in order to get their best 11 on the field. This is the LSU D's 2nd season under Chavis, so I expect another step towards becoming an elite defensive unit.
I often look for overvalued teams and fade them when facing undervalued teams. This, along with matchups up front, QB play and emotional/situational edge, makes up the basis of my capping.
In this game, I see LSU as being undervalued publicly while UNC is being over-hyped. Les Miles is a national joke now (has been a joke in Baton rouge since 2006-07) for good reason, but the addition of Gonzalez and Wilson to the staff have helped morale in the locker room. These guys also provide a bridge between the payers and Miles and Crowton, who appear to be somewhat out of touch. Meanwhile, Butch Davis is being called a genius, despite his 11-13 record in the mediocre ACC the past 3 seasons.
I give the edge in the trenches to UNC based on experience, but give the nod to Jefferson at QB (threw less than half the INTs as Yates last season). The emotional edge I give the LSU, who are ranked low, if at all, in all polls, and are looking to rebound from 9-4 a year ago. UNC has dealt with turmoil all offseason, and will likely play without an offensive and defensive star.
No play for me on the side, although I would expect a low-scoring affair. First team to 20 wins! GL:weed:
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BOL Cie :toast: I added UCONN last night and like your write up on the UNC/LSU game... At first I was 100% on UNC but after all of the off the field crap I feel like LSU is the more focused team... While Miles is indeed a joke... his teams do well in the Georgia Dome... Also, I think LSU's game plan is to take care of the football... UNC will turn the ball over and that will be the difference in the game... My prediction: LSU 17 UNC 13
Love UCONN, Corley. I will be playing them too.
Also, Cie--excellent write-up. It's LSU or nothing in this game IMO.
Also, Cie--excellent write-up. It's LSU or nothing in this game IMO.
