First and Ten - - Twenty Ten

[lostinamerica]

For the record:

2003-2009/2010 All Games: 685-655 (-23.55*)

2009 NCAA Regular Season: 51-46 (-2.64*)
2009-2010 NCAA Bowl Season: 10-11 (+0.12*)

2008 NCAA Regular Season: 42-52 (-11.95*)
2008-2009 NCAA Bowl Season: 12-9 (+2.25*)

2007 NCAA Regular Season: 27-36 (-13.95*)
2007-2008 NCAA Bowl Season: 6-7 (-2.40*)

2006 NCAA Regular Season: 43-39 (+0.26*)
2006-2007 NCAA Bowl Season: 8-7 (+0.00*)

2005 NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
2005-2006 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)


2009 NFL Regular Season: 57-45 (+8.40*)
2009-2010 NFL Post Season: 7-6 (-0.80*)

2008 NFL Regular Season: 32-25 (+5.80*)
2008-2009 NFL Post Season: 6-5 (+0.55*)

2007 NFL Regular Season: 25-33 (-10.70*)
2007-2008 NFL Post Season: 6-5 (+0.35*)

2006 NFL Regular Season: 19-33 (-16.70*)
2006-2007 NFL Post Season: 7-5 (+1.35*)
2006 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Post Season: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)


2009-2010 Top Plays (a new category):
(NFL & NCAA) (included above): 13-9 (+3.84*)


Inside the numbers . . .

- - I'm sure I've made a few errors in my record keeping over 7 years, but the errors would have "washed themselves out", so I'm confident in saying it would be a very short list of people that have maintained a record of their posted football wagers that is as reliable as mine.

- - Generally $40 per unit, so that's a loss of less than $1000. My little parlays, and $2-$10 "action" bets, rarer and rare, and not posted, probably take the 7 year total to closer to $1250. On the other hand, in Madjack's contests I won $500 in the Monday night contest, about $400 and $200 in two of the NCAA contests, and I've received several hundred dollars of free plays and deposit bonuses at the offshores.

- - Like I tell my family and friends, I tread water in football, but I win at golf.

- - The 2007 season and (-26.70*) was a disaster.

- - I haven't been getting any better . . . that's a topic for another post.

- - I've been perfect with my wagers in the last 5 Super Bowls and the last 4 BCS championships, including a couple of instances involving multiple wagers (i.e., pointspread/ML/totals/teasers), and including wagers larger than my customary 1*. So, my best stuff has come with the pressure to finish strong, but likely a Kiss of Death for this season.

- - Mad props to the excellent crew of cappers here at Jack's place that I generally lean on seven days a week in arriving at my decisions.

:toast:

- - I'll open the 2010 season by quoting my post to open the 2004, 2005 and 2006 seasons; I could embellish or revise it, but I like letting it stand exactly as it was when I whipped it up in 2004, "30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface":

"Every wager is founded on an angle of some sort, maybe a dozen, some better than others . . . Information and a frame of reference for synthesizing that information . . .Situational, fundamental, technical, valuist, contrarian . . . It's good to know and remember what has worked in the past, but it's mindless to be wedded to one or a few approaches or theories . . . You scrutinize. You step back. You dig a little more. You pull the trigger. MONEY MANAGEMENT. You're right, you're wrong, you evaluate and try again . . . The bad beats are maybe 1/3 as annoying as the flat out wrong and I must have been an idiot plays . . . Persevering for value in some long odds, and recognizing value on one side of a tight number. Matchups. Raw numbers. Where does the real motivation lie; Is this a bad spot even if they are headed in the right direction; Exhibitions, openers, playing out the string, championships - you won't find value if you keep your eyes closed . . . A few cappers recognizing what you are seeing so clearly; others not recognizing what seems so obvious you just want to scream before they trip; research that is good enough to convince you to take exactly the opposite side of what you anticipated going in . . . That's 30 minutes of brainstorming to scratch the surface . . . And now an old game starts a new season . . . GOOD LUCK!"


- - Hanginaround:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARiiO_41Id8


GL

******************************

Don't believe everything you think.

******************************

 

[lostinamerica]

2010 NCAA YTD: 0-0 (+0.00*)

Washington(+3)(-120) over BYU (1.5*) (** Top Play **)
- - The Huskies showed what they are capable of last year, and I'm seeing wind under their wings until issues about their depth take their full measure somewhere down the road. For now, in a lid lifter, I would struggle to compile even a short list of opponents that I would be finding line value with as the Huskies opponent after having been securely parked in their crosshairs for going on forever.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/jerrybrewer/2012765054_brewer31.html


USC(-20') over Hawaii (1*)
- - I'm seeing a blend of discipline, drive and new blood in nice proportions that will bear initial fruit in a mismatch in paradise.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Iowa State(-4) over Northern Illinois (1*)
- - I don't think the visitor has spent the last 12 months closing the gap between these squads.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Syracuse(-7')(+100) over Akron (1*)
- -

Kentucky(-3) over Louisville (1*)
- -

Clemson(-27) over North Texas (1*)
- -

Northwestern(-3)(-120) over Vanderbilt (1*)
- -

GL

 

[~Buckshot~]

Best of luck to you this year, always enjoy your posts :0corn

 

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 3-4 (-2.20*)
NFL YTD: 1-0 (+1.50*)
Top Plays (included above): 1-1 (-0.30*)


Cheers, ~Buckshot~! :toast:
Hope you have a great season of wagering, and your favorite teams all do better than expected (unless they happen to be playing Green Bay or Iowa :nono: ).


Stanford(-6) over UCLA (1*)
- - http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-0911-ucla-stanford-20100911,0,3890680.story

Baylor(-14') over Buffalo (1*)
- - My money says QB Robert Griffin on the field and in charge elevates all 3 phases and the coaching staff as well, especially when riding the better team under his saddle in a momentum building spot.

Iowa(-13') over Iowa State (1*)
- - For months, and now one week, all the signs have been indicating Iowa is picking up right where last year's Top Ten team left off, which includes a potent but by no means efficient offense. An effort worthy of the opponent will be much more than ISU can stay with.

Alabama(-12) over Penn State (1*)
- - I think Alabama is going to get worn down and sooner or later caught by so many rested and quality opponents giving them their best shot, but I think the tables are turned much the other direction tonight with Joe Paterno's inexperienced squad paying a visit.

Hawaii(+3) over Army (1*)
- - I'm with Box this time, the early arrival will contribute to an attack that Army won't be able to keep pace with.

Michigan(+3') over Notre Dame (1*)
- - For starters, I think ND spent more capital in last week's effort.

Syracuse(+13) over Washington (1*)
- - Loads of early season intrigue in this game for me.

Florida State(+7) over Oklahoma (1*)
- - I don't think I'm a sucker for saying FSU's deep talent will not be ineffectively deployed in this huge game.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

2010 NCAA YTD: 9-6 (+1.60*)

2010 NFL YTD: 4-3 (+1.15*)
Top Plays (included above): 2-2 (-0.45*)


California(-2') over Nevada (1*)
- - The void in Nevada's track record when stepping up the level of their competition is really no more frightful than the tradition of Tedford's Cal teams for undershooting expectations in shocking fashion . . . With Nevada hosting a showcase opportunity, and the opponent a Cal team with fairly low preseason (public) expectations, but (hopefully) intent on not scuttling their season before it starts, I'm biting on what I feel is more than a mere hunch as to the stronger and deeper and equally hungry team, in a(nother, brother) spot to build on some early season momentum (or crash and burn, instead).

Iowa(-1') over Arizona (1*)
- -

Baylor(+21') over TCU (1*)
- -


GL

 

[ThrowinPicks]

I'm impressed by the perspicacity of your post's Lost.

Best of luck to you this season.

 

[Coach_K]

Good luck this season, I was looking at the Iowa game and can't understand why they are not at least 3 to 6pt favorite. Any thoughts? Dont mean to steal your thread so if you would rather answer in a new thread that is cool

 

[lostinamerica]

TP -LIA, shrewd football poster :mj07: - Thanks, but not hardly - But I did have some good choices last week, for much the reasons I played them. :00hour

Coach_K - Since you asked, I'll give my best take on Ferentz's 2010 Hawkeyes on Saturday.


Utah State(+4) over Fresno State (1.5*) ** Top Play **
- - To start the week I was feeling too busy or too lazy or too late to confidently cap the Cinci vs. NCST game, but the thought in my head was to jump on Utah State if I was seeing again how weak Cinci was looking . . . ?Last year?s 4-8 mark included respectable efforts in road defeats at Utah, BYU, and Texas A&M (all USU covers), plus four other losses by four points or fewer, among those some narrow setbacks vs. bowl-bound Nevada and Fresno State. The Utags then closed their season with a wild 52-49 shootout win at the Kibbie Dome vs. Humanitarian Bowl-bound Idaho, USU?s second 50+ scoring explosion of the season . . . The ?D? will likely be at the forefront of any renaissance this fall, because we can?t envision USU making a bowl run if it ranks 100th or worse nationally in as many stat categories (four) as it did a year ago. Nine starters return for a platoon that ought to have a better idea how to implement some of the aggressive tactics and pressman coverages in pass defense that served (HC) Andersen well during his stint (as DC) at Utah . . . Any improvement from the ?D? will be appreciated by an ?O? that scored 30 or more on three different losing occasions in ?09. Eight starters are back, including electric sr. QB Diondre Borel, who returns after maturing into an all-around threat LY, passing for nearly 3000 yards, 17TDs and only 4 picks while adding nearly 500 YR . . . USU should only be outclassed by Boise in league play, and just a little bit of improvement on defense could help reverse some of those close losses from LY. True, the opener at Oklahoma is no picnic. But, remember, the Utags have been pointspread gold lately (8-3 LY, 12-3-1 since mid ?08, and 21-9 the last 30 overall, not to mention 9-1-1 their last 11 as a dog!).? ~ The Gold Sheet


GL

 

[#cruncher]

I have always enjoyed 'those guys' write-ups. Keep up the good work.

 

[Betone]

Very nice work, year after year and we all appreciate your write ups. Thank you and GL this year. :0008

 

[Woodson]

Great thread. Thanks for posting! :0074

 

[lostinamerica]

:0008 :0074

Iowa(-1') over Arizona (1*)
Iowa(+2) over Arizona (1*) ** Top Play **
- - Not venturing far from my backyard on this one.


Giving my best take on Ferentz's 2010 Hawkeyes requires looking back before looking forward.

With nothing but my gut to back it up, I admit to feeling good about Iowa's chances in last year's Orange Bowl. Then when I started doing my research/capping for the game, I was confident "I'll know it when I see it" with regard to whether my confidence was justified. Sure enough, two little "I'll know it when I see it" items absolutely sold me on Iowa as the right side. First, on the Georgia Tech side, the talk was about how their Bowl game was a stepping stone to the real prize, a run at the national championship next year. ("I think everyone's still on the fence about Georgia Tech, at least as far as I can tell, reading the Internet and articles," guard Joseph Gilbert said. "A good solid win in the Orange Bowl would legitimize us in a lot of people's eyes . . . But the main thing would be motivation for next year. A big win in the Orange Bowl would hopefully result in a top-five finish this year and a shot at the real thing next year.") That was the GT coaching staff encouraged mindset, not just one player's take. Excuse me, but WTF??? You guys even know who you're playing? (And how's that approach working out for you after getting whipped by Kansas last week?) Secondly, on the Iowa side, a single picture of WR DJ Koulianos mugging for the camera from across the room told me what I suspected about the preparation going on in the Iowa camp:

Onward to a much anticipated 2010 season. Everything through spring and fall has IMO fit the profile of a team coming together. HC Kirk Ferentz is all about substance, and it is so obvious to me he has his team right where he wants them, and could not be more pleased with what is taking shape. Of course he's talked honestly about things that need to be corrected, areas for improvement, having done little while much lies ahead, but he's always done so with an obvious confidence about how his team will respond, and complimented his team throughout. Not in just the usual manner, but a manner unique to this team. For me, with two weeks on the field, and months off the field, every visual, every audio clip, every news report from outsiders, has painted a picture of character and work ethic, communication and support (at the snap, and off the field), lofty goals and quiet resolution. Everyone is on exactly the same page, or I don't know my team. http://hawkcentral.com/2010/09/14/iowa-football-parker-to-miss-arizona-game/ Last year's team finished on a lofty perch, but I've had no reason to doubt this is Ferentz's best Iowa team.

All those good intangibles wouldn't mean much if you don't have the players. When Iowa has had a great four man pass rush under Ferentz (and going back to Hayden Fry), Iowa has played great defense. Check mark there. Iowa likes to play their style, but they have the weapons to attack what you give them, or where you have weaknesses. IMO Iowa has already shown all that, while Arizona backers are hoping Arizona will be showing some of that. I see a really big difference in that. More important, I think the arc of the Iowa team at this moment is a step forward, not a step back - that is the context and the crux of my capping for this game, reduced to a single sentence.

I have a pretty good idea of what goals Ferentz has set for this team. He's sufficiently and convincingly told them to get the idea of a national championship out of their heads, that is something they can't control. What they can control is the path to the Rose Bowl, and the opportunity to win the Rose Bowl. Now they get a chance to test themselves on the road against an elite Pac Ten team before the Big Ten campaign gets under way. It's an occasion not lost on this Hawkeye team.

ODDS and ENDS:

- - In sports, the hardest thing to do is to stay the same - you are either getting better, or you're going in the wrong direction. Not to suggest it's a steady linear slope in one direction, as there are always blips along the way, and adversity to overcome, even when the direction is decidedly positive. I think the odds are pretty strong Iowa will not make it through the grind of a full season unscathed. But I really don't see this early spot as being a downer in the desert.

- - Last year's game against Arizona was one of the few games Iowa played that was never much in doubt, but I've seen plenty of attempts to break down the stats from last year's game to make the game appear closer than the final score. No doubt Arizona has found their QB since that game, but Arizona hasn't been a juggernaut since then, either. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...cats-need-to-do-to-improve-before-pac-10-play Ferentz's best Iowa team is a big load for maybe Stoop's best Arizona team, more so than the other way around.

- - FWIW, all the talk going around is about how juiced this road environment will be. What I haven't heard mentioned, but is based on all the reports I've been hearing for over a year, is that I'm pretty sure there will be over 10,000 lifelong Hawkeye fans in the 58,000 seat stadium, and probably closer to 15,000. If I'm wrong about that, then I probably have no clue about anything I've written on this game.

wow are there Hawk fans here. GL

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Florida State(-10) over BYU (1*)
- -

Iowa State(+4) over Kansas State (1*)
- -

GL