FCP WEEK 4

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Slowly recovering from a poor week 1. The record stands at 24-24. My large plays are 2-0


Grabbing this now and this will be a large play

Mizzou -18' vs Miami O W
 
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hawkeye

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GL FCP--your starting to turn the conrerl ike I fanally did after 3 weeks, Seems to be a different season this year--hope it keeps going our way. I have been gone so much its hard to spend time on capping. Sometimes hard to get near a computer etc. Again this week I am home today and then gone to the mountains for a mtg thru Friday--going tt be tough to get some time to cap. Again how bad is Ball State?. Can you tell me who you think the worst 3 teams are in the Mac and who you think the 3 best teams are in the league? Thanks and good luck.
 

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s

s

Hawk, that's open for discussion but I would say the 3 best are:
N Ill
Temple
Central Mich

3 worse:

Akron
Emich
Miami

Falcon and Spackler might weigh in as well and have a different view. Ball St is not amongst the best 6 or 7 in my book.
 

BGFalcon

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Hawk, that's open for discussion but I would say the 3 best are:
N Ill
Temple
Central Mich

3 worse:

Akron
Emich
Miami

I agree on the 3 worst teams. EMU is awful and Miami is not much better. As for the three best, I like NIU and Temple but not sure about #3. I think as the season goes on BG might emerge. They are pretty young and might give up 50 this week but in the conference I think they will be fine.
 

BGFalcon

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BTW, BGSU is now getting 25.5 against Michigan. They are probably going to keep Shilz out for the game and play Pankratz and/or Pagel at quarterback.
 

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Thats good info BG.

I saw in the boxscore that Pankratz got some time and performed fairly well. I didn't know about Shilz shoulder injury until you brought it up and thought that Clawson might have been just shaking things up a bit. This was the smallest play of the three so I'll probably just sit on it or may play a bit more at the larger number.

I really should have waited to post a better number but I'm in a habit of posting the games that really catch my eye when Bookmaker gets the numbers out on Sunday. I just found it hard to pass up a decent number against such a horrible defense.

As you are an avid follower of both programs I would sure like to know how you feel about this one.
 

BGFalcon

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I try to grad those early numbers as well. Lately I have gotten the best of it in terms of line movement.

I can't see laying any chalk with Michigan right now because they are very susceptible to a backdoor cover. On the other hand, BG isn't good enough defensively to make me feel comfortable with 24 or 25 points.

My play is on the over. The total is 58 and Michigan could get 50 of that on their own. BG will score as well, since everyone can score on Michigan's defense.

BTW, Spackler and I will be making the trip to Ann Arbor. You are on my speed dial in case we need bail money.
 

Full court press

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BTW, Spackler and I will be making the trip to Ann Arbor. You are on my speed dial in case we need bail money.

I think that you can avoid incident up there, however if the two of you were headed to Vegas I would keep the cash on the ready. I'm sure you guys will have a blast.

I am on the over as well. It looks to be very solid.

Added :

Michigan over 58 W
Penn St under 43 W
Temple +15 W
 
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I have a few seconds so I'll get into why Missouri is such a large play for me.

Do not be fooled by Miami's results thus far. They have won two of three and covered two of the first three but they are a really bad team and will continue to be just that.

I think that the game in Fla was a complete fluke and I am pretty much tossing that game out. The gators had zero interest and fumbled 8 freakin times. Miami could still gain just little over 200 yards.

They did beat Eastern Mich by seven at home. EMU hasn't won a game since November of 2008. Still, that game was played fairly evenly and it's fairly safe to say that they won as a direct result of 3 interceptions. Facing a defense that gave up over 500yards the following week didn't hurt as well.

The Redhawks won their last as well, home against a poor Col St team that also has not won a game in over a year. The R'Hawks, despite winning by 21, were outgained and benifited from 4 turnovers while they had none. Think about this, Col St had not scored a touchdown all season until the 4th quarter of this game and they still had a bit more total offense than Miami.

Some may say that Miami is opportunistic but I believe that they have been flat out lucky with a great bit of soft scheduling tossed in. Again, their two wins were against teams that have gone at least a year winless.

Now they go and visit the Big !2. I'm not saying that the Tigers are a great team, far from it. They just got by San Diego State last week and have not played particularly well.They are a Big 12 team however, a team that is faster and stronger than Miami. I won't get in to all of the Xs and Os but I think that their defense will blitz the hell out of Dysert and keep the Miami offense well in check.

This is the Tigers final tune up before they welcome Colorado next week. Expect Missouri to play with a purpose this week and toy with a really bad football team.


Thats it until halftime

:0corn
 
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C

Carl Spackler

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I'm in on the BG/Michigan over (like everyone else) but I am not as confident on the 58 as I was the lower numbers in the past few weeks. Reason being...Michigan has had a tendency of only scoring when need be against weaker teams. Granted, you can make the argument that maybe BG isn't weaker after Michigan's performance against UMass, but look back at the WMU game last year or UConn this year. If the other team isn't scoring, Michigan doesn't always see the need to score either. With that said, I still believe BG will score even with a backup QB most likely.
 

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I'm in on the BG/Michigan over (like everyone else) but I am not as confident on the 58 as I was the lower numbers in the past few weeks. Reason being...Michigan has had a tendency of only scoring when need be against weaker teams. Granted, you can make the argument that maybe BG isn't weaker after Michigan's performance against UMass, but look back at the WMU game last year or UConn this year. If the other team isn't scoring, Michigan doesn't always see the need to score either. With that said, I still believe BG will score even with a backup QB most likely.

Very valid points Spacks. Facing a defense that gives up 450+ yards a game it's hard to think that Mich won't run up some big numbers. Geter and Jorden should shake loose to make some big plays for BG as well. I think it's a pretty solid wager. Don't leave your seat to take a piss, you will likely miss a TD.

I would imagine that you guys have been looking forward to this one for a long, long time. Have a great time.
 

arrow

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MO.

MO.

:nono: I don"t think this MO. team is near as good as the past. They don't have near the team speed and lost a few key players to the NFL. Last week they got a average s.d.state team and struggled. With conference game on deck with a winnable colorodo team, i think it will be a vanilla offense and a lower scoring game. This is actually a top play on the under for me on this game for some of these reasons i just talked about. Good luck to all of you! ARROW
 

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:nono: I don"t think this MO. team is near as good as the past. They don't have near the team speed and lost a few key players to the NFL. Last week they got a average s.d.state team and struggled. With conference game on deck with a winnable colorodo team, i think it will be a vanilla offense and a lower scoring game. This is actually a top play on the under for me on this game for some of these reasons i just talked about. Good luck to all of you! ARROW[/QUOTE

Thanks Arrow,

I agree that Missouri is not as good. This is more of a play against Miami than it is a play on Missouri if that makes any sense. I agree with you on the under play as well. I have three more under plays ready to fly and that is one of them.
 

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I was going to leave this one alone but saw a couple things that make me want to get involved.

Just a small play on a two team 6' pt tease :

Pitt +10' / Pitt under 55' -120 L
 
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Totals :

Vtech/BC under 45' W
Army/Duke under 55' L
Mia O/ Missouri under 52' L
Col St/ Idaho under 51' L
Ball St/ Iowa under 46' W
 
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