NoSweat - UCLA/Oregon - Thoughts/Analysis

NoSweat

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Oct 18, 2010
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Hey guys, this is my first college post on this board. Best of luck.

UCLA vs. Oregon
No Sweat Rating: 1 - UCLA +26
No Sweat Rating: 3 - Under 61.5
Final Score Prediction: Oregon 38 - UCLA 21
Oregon gets to show the nation how good they are on national television at home against an odd UCLA team. This line opened up at 20 and has jumped all the way to 26. A 6 point line movement for two Pac 10 teams is absurd. The line jeeps moving up on a daily basis and I wouldn't be surprised to see if move to 27 before kickoff. The O/U opened up at 60 and has moved to 61.5 on a few books. The public is slamming both Oregon at around 75 percent and the over at a whopping 85+ percent. For the last two weeks, the public has been KILLING the books on the weekdays. The computers I use mark this as a no play for the game. Personally, at first glance, I liked Oregon to roll here. But with the line movement up 6, on top of the public slamming the Ducks, I will fade this game. The Oregon/UCLA is at a rating of 1, which means it is definite no play. If I had to bet it, I would take the Bruins, but this could go either way. The Over/Under is a solid play though. I do like the Under 61.5. UCLA has proved that they can play some defense, sometimes. I think the Ducks roll early, but make a few mistakes near the redzone to send this game under. The Bruins will do their best to run the ball while keeping the Ducks potent offense off the field. The Ducks will rack up a ton of yardage, but I expect them to make enough mistakes to send this game under. Take the under as the play, and I'll see you at the cash register.
 

HoopsGuru

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Jan 6, 2004
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I'm curious how you come up with your number amounts if you have the bruins covering by more points than the under yet the under is a stronger play?
 

NoSweat

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Oct 18, 2010
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That is a good question. While the spread difference is 11 yet the over/under is only 3.5, the over/under is the stronger play. The system I use has no results for the game ATS. Therefore, it is a personal opinion that UCLA covers. It could be a blowout but the numbers suggest that the under will work. Though the over/under difference is only 3.5, that does not effect how strong of a rating I give the game. Therefore, while I'm expecting this to be a close cover for the under, I'm expecting it to work. The UCLA cover might happen, but I really don't know either way. Hope this helps a little bit.
 

flapjack

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Aug 13, 2004
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I really like the under here. UCLA is unpredictable, I wouldnt even be super shocked if they went down to the wire with Oregon. But whether they hang or get blown out, it should go under. They are going to try to run and limit Oregon's time on the field. If they're successful, its going to be lower scoring then a typical Oregon game. If they can't run, they can't pass and wont score much if any and this might be 45-0.
 
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