Week 8 NCAA PLAYS

Master Capper

Emperior
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
9,104
11
0
Dunedin, Florida
2010 Season (includes halftimes)

Last Week 11-3-1 +12.4 units

1 unit plays 16-10-1
2 unit plays 7-1-1
3 unit plays 2-0

Total 25-11-2 +20.9 units

2009 Season Tally (includes halftime plays)

147-121 units +26.8 units (plays rated 1-3 stars)
9-6 Bowl Record +1.6

Favorites 36-33

Dogs 50-41

Overs 32-22

Unders 29-25


Coming off a nice week and I finally broke my cherry in the Sunbelt Conference. I still managed to have the worst pick of the week with a play on Virginia, but turned a nice profit for the week. Early plays will be up around 7:30 this evening.
 

Master Capper

Emperior
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
9,104
11
0
Dunedin, Florida
Lines

UCLA + 21.5 @ OREG

USF +8 @ CINC

ND-6 @ Navy

UCONN-1 @ LOU

DUKE +26 @ VT

UNC +6.5 @ MIAFL

GT +5.5 @ CLEM

MARYLAND +5.5 @ BC

MARSH +13.5 @ ECU

TEMP -7.5 @ BUFF

WISC +5 @ IOWA

PSU -9.5 @ MINN

PUR +22.5 @ OSU

MichST -7 @ NW

RUT +12.5 @ PITT

CUSE +16 @ WVU

IND +13.5 @ ILL

IWST +22 @ TX

SCAR -12.5 @ VANDY

OLEMISS @ ARK OFF THE BOARD

OHIO-3 @ MIAOH

WYO +8.5 @ BYU

KANST +7 @ Baylor

UAB +20 @ MISSST

HOU +9.5 @ SMU

KENTST -1.5 @ BGSU

WMICH -8.5 @ AKR

CMU +10 @ NILL

OKL -3.5 @ Mizzou

NEB -5.5 @ OKST

Wash +7 @ ZONA

ASU +3 @ CAL

Bama -17 @ TENN

LSU +6 @ AUB

NMXST +22.5 @ IDAHO

HAW -3 @ UTST

WAZZOU +34.5 @ STAN

EMU +23.5 @ VIRG

GEORGIA -3.5 @ TUCKY

Rice +21 @ UCF

BALLST +11 @ TOL

TXTECH Pick @ COL

Fresno -17 @ SJOSE

AFORCE +18.5 @ TCU

TULANE +10.5 @ UTEP

SDST -22.5 @ NMX

WKU + 6.5 @ ULLAF

FLATL +7 @ ARKST

Monroe +11 @ MTSU
 

Master Capper

Emperior
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
9,104
11
0
Dunedin, Florida
And with that, let?s take a look at some other marquee games this week, and the opening opinion out of Las Vegas:

Nebraska (-3) at Oklahoma State

"We left it on a key number, and we still sided with Nebraska,? Korner said. ?They lost last week, but we still identify them as a team that is going to be bet. They can still be a Top 5 team, and they can still cover games. So, we?ll show the respect here.?

Oklahoma (-5) at Missouri

?Missouri is OK. They?re playing well, and they?re quite capable of winning this game outright,? Korner said. ?Missouri, a little under the radar, has been getting money this season. They are attractive to bettors because they can score, and may be a good bet here. But, out of respect for Oklahoma, we settled on five.?

Wisconsin (+5) at Iowa

?A big game, and it?s really a coin toss,? Korner said. ?We really like Iowa, but Wisconsin, off a great win, is fully capable of covering this one, as well. Expect some movement here. Could go down to three, and may go as high at seven.?

LSU (+6) at Auburn

?This will be one of those real tight SEC games. It?ll be a big game for the books,? Korner said. ?LSU can win straight up, and this line will probably shift during the week. Let?s see what the bettors think of it.?

Alabama (-19) at Tennessee

?We don?t think Alabama is getting much respect with the sharp players out there these days,? Korner said. ?So, we?ll go with 19 and I wouldn?t be surprised to see the players push this down. Alabama didn?t make their number vs. Ole Miss, which helped the books, and you have to remember the bettors have a short memory. With Alabama not covering lately, they may go toward Tennessee here.?

Air Force (+20) at TCU

?If you?re taking the opponent in TCU games these days, good luck,? Korner said. ?The defense is playing tremendous and if TCU can score 21 points here, it may be over. The defense is just that good, and they?re out to prove it. A lot of people are talking about Boise State, and TCU falls through the cracks. They?re out to get noticed, and they?re playing like it.?
 

Master Capper

Emperior
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
9,104
11
0
Dunedin, Florida
UCLA at OREGON (Thursday, October 21)... Bruins didn?t do it vs. Ducks LY in 24-10 home loss but have actually covered 3 of last 5 in series. Neuheisel, however, just 5-11 his last 16 as dog. Ducks 3-0 vs. line at home TY and 9-2 vs. number last 11 as host. Tech edge-Oregon, based on team trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI (Friday, October 22)... Skip Holtz now 0-2 as dog at USF but is 23-11 in role since ?05 (counting ECU days). Cincy has won last 4 and covered last 6 in series, and Butch Jones working on 3-game cover streak. Tech edge-Cincy, based on series trends.

NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY (at Meadowlands)...Brian Kelly only 8-10-3 his last 21 on line at Cincy & ND. The team wearing the white uniforms has covered the last seven in series (always a neutral game when Navy hosts, which Mids haven?t covered since ?02 vs. ND). Irish, however, just 2-9-3 last 14 as chalk. Navy 9-4 its last 10 as a dog for Niumatalolo and 30-17 as dog away from Annapolis since 2000. Tech edge-Navy, based on team trends.

UCONN at LOUISVILLE...Cards have lost and failed to cover last 3 vs. Edsall, although UL 3-1 vs. line last 4 TY. Huskies 0-3 vs. line away from home TY after covering previous 8 away from Rentsch. Tech edge-slight to UL, based on recent trends.

DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer on another of his patented rolls with 5 straight wins and covers. Cutcliffe, however, is 8-3-1 vs. line last 12 on road (road team 14-4 last 18 Blue Devil games on board), and Duke has covered last 2 meetings. Beamer 8-3 laying DD since LY. Tech edge-VT, based on team trends.

Advertisement



NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Butch has won and covered last 3 years vs. Shannon, and Heels are 5-1 vs. line TY. Butch 2-0 as dog TY and 13-5 in role since arriving at Chapel Hill in ?07. Shannon 5-13 vs. line as home chalk vs. FBS foes since taking over Canes ion ?07. Tech edge-UNC, based on series and team trends.

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON...Paul Johnson 3-0 SU vs. Dabo since ?08, including wild ACC title game win LY. If GT getting points note Paul Johnson 6-2 as dog since ?08. GT also 11-5 vs. line away since Johnson arrived in ?08. If Dabo a dog note 0-3 mark in role at home since he took over Tigers in mid ?08. Tech edge-GT, based on team and recent series trends.

MARYLAND at BOSTON COLLEGE...Home team has covered last 4 meetings in series, though BC just 1-9 vs. line last 10 on board. Ralph has covered 5 of last 7 on board since late LY. Tech edge-Ralph, based on recent BC spread woes.

MARSHALL at EAST CAROLINA...Herd not exactly rallying for Doc, no covers last 4 or 5 of 6 TY. Herd also 0-3 SU and vs. line away TY. Ruffin McNeill 3-0 SU and vs. line at home in 2010. Tech edge-ECU, based on recent Herd negatives.

TEMPLE at BUFFALO...Al "Touch of" Golden looking to begin another spread streak. Temple 11-6 vs. line away since ?08 (2-1 TY) and 4-1 as road chalk since LY. Bulls 1-6 vs. line last 7 as host vs. FBS foes. Owls have covered last 2 meetings as well. Tech edge-Temple, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at IOWA...Ferentz has won SU last 2 and covered last 3 vs. Wisconsin, and Iowa also 7-1 vs. number last 8 in series. Hawkeyes 3-0 SU and vs. line against FBS foes at Iowa City TY. Bielema only 5-9 as dog since ?07 and 3-7 as road dog that span. Tech edge-Iowa, based on team and series trends.

PENN STATE at MINNESOTA...Shades no covers last 3 or 5 of last 6 TY. Shades also 0-2 SU and vs. line away TY, losing by same 24-3 count at Bama and Iowa. Tech edge-slight to Minnesota, based on recent Shades woes.

PURDUE at OHIO STATE...Revenge for Buckeyes after 26-18 loss LY at Ross-Ade. Tressel has covered last 7 in revenge role. Last 6 in series "under" and Purdue has covered 5 of those 6, although teams haven?t played every year (missed ?05-06). Tressel 5-0 vs. line at Big Horseshoe TYand 9-4 vs. points after last 13 losses. Tech edge-OSU, based on Tressel trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Spartans 5-2 as visiting chalk since ?07 and did win and cover handily at NU in 2008, but otherwise Cats have held upper hand vs. spread in series, covering 5 of last 6. Cats just 1-7 vs. line at Evanston vs. FBS foes since ?09 but Fitzgerald is 18-8 his last 26 as dog (6-4 last 10 as Evanston dog). Tech edge-NU, based on series trends.

RUTGERS at PITT...Note road team has covered last 4 meetings. ?Stache just 6-11 his last 17 as Heinz Field chalk (4-4 since LY). Schiano 5-1 as road dog since ?07 and 12-2 in role since ?05. Tech edge-Rutgers, based on series road and team trends.

SYRACUSE at WEST VIRGINIA...Bill Stewart starting to cover some games as chalk, now 3 in a row TY after USF win. Tech edge-slight to WVU, based on recent trends.

INDIANA at ILLINOIS...Zook 0-6 as chalk vs. FBS foes since LY (0-5 at home in role since ?09) and 5-12 in role at Champaign-Urbana since ?05. Note that Hoosiers were humiliated 55-13 by Zook when last visiting Memorial Stadium in ?08. Tech edge-slight to Indiana, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at TEXAS...Teams haven?t met since ?07. Mack just 2-7 last 9 on board, also 2-6 last 8 at Austin. Mack also just 6-11 his last 17 as chalk. Tech edge-ISU, based on recent Mack woes.

SOUTH CAROLINA at VANDERBILT...Vandy has covered last 3 meetings, winning 2 of those SU. Spurrier just 1-4 as visiting chalk since ?07. Dores, however, no covers last 6 as SEC host and just 6-13 last 19 in role. Tech edge-SC, based on recent Vandy home SEC woes.

OLE MISS at ARKANSAS...Hogs had covered 5 straight vs. Rebs prior to LY?s 30-17 Ole Miss win at Oxford. Rebs have covered their last 8 as road dog but have not covered their last 4 trips to Fayetteville. Tech edge-Ole Miss, based on team trends.

OHIO at MIAMI-OHIO...Solich has won and covered last 4 in series. Solich has covered his last 4 TY and is 8-4 vs. line last 12 away from home. Tech edge-Ohio, based on series and team trends.

WYOMING at BYU...BYU has owned Wyo lately with wins and covers in last 6, including wipeout wins last 2 years by 96-0 combined, and last 4 wins by 25 or more. But Cougs just 3-9 last 12 at Provo (2-1 TY) and 1-7 last 8 as home chalk. Note Cowboys 8-2 vs. line away under Christensen, all as dog. Tech edge-slight to Wyo, based on recent trends.

KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR... Teams haven?t met since ?07. Bill Snyder has covered his last 4 away from home since LY. Road team is 6-1 vs. line last 7 K-State games on board (neutral field vs. ISU). Tech edge-K-State, based on team trends.

TEXAS A&M at KANSAS...Teams haven?t met since ?07. Turner Gill has taken some beatings TY and is just 2-4 vs. line, KU now 3-12 last 15 on board since early ?09. Turner Gill teams now 6-11 their last 17 on board. KU 2-7 as dog since LY. But Ags only 1-9 vs. number last 10 away from Kyle Field. Tech edge-A&M, based on recent trends.

UAB at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Dan Mullen 3-0 as chalk vs. FBS foes TY. UAB just 3-7 vs. line its last 10 away from Legion Field. Tech edge-MSU, based on recent trends.

HOUSTON at SMU...Sumlin just 3-9 vs. number last 12 as visitor. SMU only 1-2 as home chalk TY and 1-10 as chalk at Ford Stadium since ?07. Tech edge-slight to UH, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at BOWLING GREEN...Dog team is 4-1-1 vs. line last 6 meetings. Flashes just 6-12 as chalk since ?05. Falcs had covered 12 of 16 as dog prior to failures in two of last three as short. Tech edge-slight to BGSU, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at AKRON...Teams haven?t met since ?07. WMU a bit bipolar lately. Broncos had dropped 15 of previous 22 spread decisions away from Waldo prior to Ball State explosion. A lot of good the new stadium has done Akron, now 1-7 vs. number as host since the new home park opened LY and 1-8 vs. line last 9 at home dating to latest Rubber Bowl days of ?08. Zips 5-16 last 21 on board. Tech edge-WMU, based on Zip home woes.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Chips no wins or covers their last 3 in 2010 but CMU has won and covered the last 3 meetings vs. NIU. But Huskies have covered their last 5 TY and now 5-2 at DeKalb chalk against FBS since ?09, reversing previous poor numbers in role. Tech edge-NIU, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA at MISSOURI...Teams didn?t meet LY but Mizzou really took it on chin from OU in Big XII title games in ?07 & ?08, losing and failing to cover both while beaten a combined 100-38. Tigers just 4-6 as dog since ?07. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on series trends.

NEBRASKA at OKLAHOMA STATE...Teams haven?t met since ?07, at which point OSU had won and covered two straight vs. Bill Callhan. Bo Pelini 2-0 vs. line away TY and 8-2 vs. spread last 10 away from Lincoln. Mike Gundy 1-4 last 5 as Stillwater dog). Tech edge-Nebraska, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA...This was a bitter loss for Cats at Seattle LY. Stoops no covers last 2 at Tucson after 15-4 mark previous 19 vs. number at home. UW 1-1 as road dog TY and 3-4 in role for Sarkisian since LY, but just 4-11 in role dating back to ?07 and Ty?s days. Last three also "over" in series. Tech edge-slight to UA, based on team trends.

ARIZONA STATE at CAL...Home team has covered last 4 meetings, and Tedford 3-0 SU and vs. line hosting Sun Devils since ?04. Note last three "under" in series as well. Erickson, however, has covered last 4 TY (all as dog) including three straight away from Tempe. Tech edge-ASU, based on recent trends.

ALABAMA at TENNESSEE...Nick Saban no covers last 2 on road TY although he is still 6?3 vs. spread away from Tuscaloosa since LY. Tide has won last 5 SU vs. Vols but its three game cover streak vs. UT was snapped LY. Tide has covered last 4 at Knoxville. Tech edge-Bama, based on team and series trends.

LSU at AUBURN...The most exciting teams in college FB this year! LSU has won last 3 meetings and covered last 2; Auburn had covered 3 straight from ?05-07. Les Miles 4-2 as road dog since ?07. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on recent trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at IDAHO...Ags have dropped last 2 and 7 of last 8 spread decisions vs. Vandals. Akey 2-0 as home chalk TY. Tech edge-Idaho, based on series and team trends.

HAWAII at UTAH STATE...Teams have split the past two years with home side winning and covering each. UH, however, now 9-4 vs. line its last 13 on mainland. Tech edge-slight to USU, based on series home trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD...Harbaugh merciless the last two years on Wazzu, big wins and covers by 98-13 total score. Tree 12-3 vs. line last 15 vs. FBS on Farm. Cougs looking scrappy, however, covering last 2 on road and 4 of last 5 overall. Tech edge-slight to Tree, based on recent trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at VIRGINIA...Despite Ball St. upset, note EMU only 7-12 vs. line under Ron English. Mike London 2-0 as home chalk TY. Tech edge-Virginia, based on EMU negatives.

GEORGIA at KENTUCKY...Dawgs were upset at home by the Cats LY and have failed to cover last 2 vs. UK. Richt has also failed to cover last two trips to Lexington. Richt 0-3 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to UK, based on recent Dawg road woes.

RICE at UCF...O?Leary rolled 49-7 LY. Owls just 1-4 vs. spread last 5 on CUSA road. O?Leary has covered last 4 and 5 of 6 to start ?10, and is 9-2 his last 11 as chalk. Tech edge-UCF, based on recent trends.

BALL STATE at TOLEDO...This was a last second thrilling win for Toledo LY, breaking Ball?s recent dominance of 3 straight wins and 4 straight covers in series. Stan Parrish now 7-2 vs. line away for Cardinals since LY (7-1 as road dog). Rockets 0-2 vs. line at Glass Bowl TY. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on recent trends.

TEXAS TECH at COLORADO...Teams haven?t met since ?07. Interestingly, Dan Hawkins punished Leach in ?06 and ?07, and Buffs have covered last 4 meetings (although those four games spaced since 2002). Tech edge-Colorado, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...FSU has covered last 3 and 6 of last 7 in series. Pat Hill 5-1 last 6 as road chalk. Spartans 1-9 vs. line last 10 at home and 3-19 last 22 on board. Tech edge-Fresno, based on series and team trends.

AIR FORCE at TCU...Note that home team has covered last 4 meetings, and TCU has really whipped Falcs last 2 at Fort Worth. Frogs 22-7 vs. number at Amon Carter Stadium since ?05 and 14-4 last 17 as DD chalk. Tech edge-TCU, based on series home and team trends.

TULANE at UTEP...Wave has gotten physical with UTEP, covering last 3 meetings. Mike Price has covered his last two as Sun Bowl chalk TY but still just 7-13 in role since ?05, and 10-24 last 34 as chalk since late ?04. Bob Toledo, however, just 1-6-1 last 8 as CUSA road dog. Tech edge-slight to UTEP, based on recent trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Rocky Long used to own Aztecs when he coached Lobos, who have won and covered last 4 hosting SDSU (all of those under Rocky). SDSU 1-8 SU and vs. line last 9 in series, and Aztecs 1-5 as road chalk since ?05 (1-1 TY). Locksley, however, 1-4 vs. line TY and 2-7 vs. spread as host since ?09. Tech edge-SDSU, based on recent trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at UL-LAFAYETTE...Bustle 3-2 as chalk since LY and extended marks in role are good (10-3 since ?07). Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on Bustle?s chalk marks.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at ARKANSAS STATE...Red Wolves 1-1 vs. line at Jonesboro TY but just 6-10 vs. line as host since ?07. ASU did cover first 2 tries as chalk TY after 1-6 mark in role the seven previous tries. Howard no covers last 3 TY and just 6-11 last 17 on board since LY. Tech edge-slight to FAU, based on etended ASU negatives.

UL-MONROE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Road team 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 in series. Blue Raiders 0-3 vs. line at Jonny Floyd Stadium TY after 6-1 spread mark previous 7 as host. Tech edge-slight to MTSU, based on extended home mark.
 

Master Capper

Emperior
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
9,104
11
0
Dunedin, Florida
SEC Gurus help me out here:

I just capped all of the SEC games and I came out with overs by large amounts on every game except Bama-Tenn and LSU-AUB. I capped the Georiga game and it came out nearly 17 points over the total. Am I completely off base in these SEC totals?
 

Master Capper

Emperior
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
9,104
11
0
Dunedin, Florida
5 Stats to Know for Saturday
By David_Payne | View all Posts
Posted 54 minutes ago 0 comments
--In his two-year career, Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones has thrown 10 touchdowns with 11 interceptions on the road, compared to 30 touchdowns and six interceptions at home.

--We?re seven weeks into the season and overs are still hitting 57.45 percent of the time. That means Unders will need to hit at least a 55 percent clip the rest of the season to get back in the normal 2 percent differential you see at the end of the season.

--Against conference competition, Sun Belt teams are averaging only 22.9 points per game, the lowest of any conference.

--Just like last year, away favorites are the best bet in the game, hitting at 52.6 percent clip. You?re picking from a bigger pool of winners when adding a couple to your card.

--In conference play, the SEC is averaging the fewest offensive plays per game with 64.
 

TLankford

Donkey
Forum Member
Nov 24, 2005
2,001
18
38
41
Austin, TX
SEC Gurus help me out here:

I just capped all of the SEC games and I came out with overs by large amounts on every game except Bama-Tenn and LSU-AUB. I capped the Georiga game and it came out nearly 17 points over the total. Am I completely off base in these SEC totals?

UGA is coming into their own on offense after getting AJ back. They should be able to put up plenty of points through the air as everyone else has against UK. UK can also score just because of Cobb. Guy is nasty. UGA defense is nothing special. Should be very few 3rd and longs and lots of red zone possessions ending in TDs
 

Master Capper

Emperior
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
9,104
11
0
Dunedin, Florida
thanks Tlankford...


Just a FYI on tonights game!!! If your thinking of playing USF you should be aware that they are very thin at WR and will be moving some DB's and RB's to play WR tonight. Locally, down here the Bulls have been getting some bad press about the lack of offense, so I think they allow Daniels to free lance tonight, so the offense may move a little better this week. In moy opinion, this years Bulls defense is a downgrade over the past few years. Im passing this one becuase the line looks pretty tight.
 

Irish

Green&Orange
Forum Member
Jan 8, 2004
3,850
16
0
48
OH
Head to head on a lot but I like the sooners!!

Go get em

Cheers
Irish
 

Full court press

Genuine
Forum Member
Dec 3, 2009
6,475
75
0
Great Lakes
Very solid record MC !

I see that you did scoop up some of the Kent St. over action. The more I think about it, the more I agree with the play.

Best of luck MC
 

Master Capper

Emperior
Forum Member
Jan 12, 2002
9,104
11
0
Dunedin, Florida
Card for Saturday, alot of smaller plays

NW +7 **

Navy +7 (got 7 at BETED)*

Iowa State +22*

Illinois over 53*

Badgers under 48*

Kent State over 49*** (upgrade from 2)

UCONN under 54*

Sota +9.5 *

Wyoming +10.5*

Cal-3 **

Texas Tech-2.5*

Fresno over 50**

My weekly Sun Belt dart throw FLATL +8*

Good Luck Cappers!!!
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top