i absolutely have been a unquestioned follower of your plays kid, as your record has speaks for itself, though... even with bye week for NW, how does this game go under radar for mich st to -not play- like should, and win by dbl digits.
stats to help your side:
dogs in NW games are 17-3 ATS and NW is 6-2 ATS off SU L (17-20 vs purdue) with Fitzgerald as HC
further,
B10 teams are 4-0 ATS off a bye this yr
which speaks to how NW could, though--even as smart as they are, and able to prep/rest...still, think mich st will not let up on this opportunity--they must be gettin grilled by coaches to take advantage it
NW barely squeaked by vandy (23-21), minn (29-28, minn coach jus lost job), and lost to a purdue team that has a new, better QB than marve at helm, with only blowout being 37-3 win vs ill st in wk2
whereas
mich st played decent defensive teams in illionois, wisconsin and to a lesser extent ND and while did need trickeration vs irish, did win--all three
maybe it jus too much for an undefeated team to play solid ball througout sched w/o lapses
all things point to this being a MICH ST win by 17...except the trend results...which, is why i think you preempted everyone in not questioning and jus go with the line that looks "off" the most -though truly, not trying to put words in your mouth (though you do seem to be a winning contrarain player--which is great to see, someone else out there examing dif angles)
that said...line being less than a TD actually speaks to me playing MST--which...maybe is jus what oddsmakers want--mst to run into wall, playing good ball throughout, with luck to run out-against a team very game, and up to playing spoiler to MAKE their season....even if MST wins an away agme, they may not cover in a 31-27 type of result. it would take, in my ind at least 3 to's or special teams TD by NW for them to win--whcih is quite possible in of itself. guess we'll see.
still, i like MST--think they seize the moment here-too good not to. i'd say good luck, but i myself have MST - and while i was a lil disturbed that you're on NW, at least i know one of us'll be winning