Week 9 Card (Oct 26- Oct 30)

[Irish]

Wow last week was a plethora of back doors.

Boise (-38) over LaTech
Last year Boise hammered the bulldogs until half. Then they laid off the gas and latch made a game of it going into the ending. Boise has won the last eight and the average home win is by 36 points. Over the last eight the sheave margin is 24 points. Boise has to have impressive wins because they are getting into the area where a one loss SEC team might jump them in the polls. Best way to avoid that is when on NATIONAL tv make a statement. This game is going into a bye week for Boise so it is not like they are looking ahead. The coach knows they have to win by convincing margins to secure their spot with TCU and Utah trying to make it and scoring well above the margin for attention. Boise as a home favorite is 14-8 over the past four years. Last year they out gained latch 500-250. The average last season was 42.2 points for and 17.1 against. The bulldogs are a good team but I think the spotlight might get to them considering they are on the road. I think it was two years ago on a week night June jones came in with a ranked Hawaii team and the bull dogs made a game of it. I think it was a it one point game. I think LaTech can make a game of it but I don't think they will. It would be different if these Boise players had inexperience but they are mature across the board. They know how to play and better yet how to look it big games. The coach knows a big win is a must so I am not thinking these players start to dance and lose focuse until they accomplish the statement. If you watch them, statement is a good word. They do not play with the win in mind because they want a shot at the big game. All the players have bought into that mindset and they approach games like this as a must impress. Some coaches understand the system and Boise has that understanding. The home field, national spot light, a team that have risen to big games against very good teams and twenty returners that remember LaTech played them tough last year. Boise should make another statement to a bowl system that will be a tough in. Boise has to see Bama Oregon auburn and maybe another may be in this dance. Let's go smurf turf.

Cheers
Irish

 

[joefrog91]

I'll be on Boise St as well. Haven't decide how to put down yet. La Tech is not the same team they were last year.

 

[Irish]

I am not 100% sure but I think my record might be 60-60-3 on all posted plays. I tried to go back so forgive me if it is a tad worse or a tad better. I'll try to keep it tighter from here out.

Thanks Joe let's get a little back eh!

Oregon (-7) over USC
This is a very large play for me. If we are talking units this is a 5X play. Now I am not saying I have inside information or know everything but I see a TON of value in this line. Let's start off by the ducks being jumped after a national tv beating given to UCLA last week. USC off just killing cal and a bye week at home is dangerous. Last year the ducks won 20-47. The passing game went for over 600 yards against IMO a much better USC secondary last year. Over the last five years the ducks are 2-3 but they have won two of the last three. The bad thing is they have not won at USC for a long time. Last year the dogs were 2-0 as a road favorite ATS. Looking at the match ups... Hawaii was able to pass the ball on them, UVA was able to slow the offense down and Stanford beat them up on the line offensively and defensively. I bring those games up because I think Oregon has a faster tougher defense than UVA. They have a more dangerous offense than Hawaii. And they won the trench battle against Stanford. Last year the ducks averaged 36 on offense and 23 on defense. The ducks defense is underrated because they give up some high numbers but they are pretty strong on every level. Matthews and paysinger lead the defense from the linebacker position. They are better than what the Trojans have at backer. I think the ducks have a better defensive line, they are playing better but USC has the more talented players they just have not come together. The Trojans have young safeties and I think they have trouble in coverage and playing the run. They guys will be GREAT when they are a bit older but right now they just lack the confidence and ability to adjust to college speed. That's why I think the ducks have an edge in coverage as well. I love the ducks o-line, they have a TON of experience and they have played together for at least a year and a half. The Trojans line is not as good as years past, the ducks are undersized on the defensive line but they are quick and relentless. Matt Barkley vs darron Thomas ... I think Barkley is better only because he has had more starting time. Thomas is the real deal, he knows the system and can make all the reads and throws. Plus he has very good speed when he runs the read option. With the lack of experience and play making at linebacker and safety I think they over committ and Thomas makes them pay. Running back I am pretty sure James has the edge in both speed and vision right now. USC may have a back in the future but Saturday Oregon has tue better running game. So most sighs point to Oregon having the talent edge. Coaching I think Kiffen is out of his depth as a head guy. He has moved from a team too fast but in that time we can see the going for two and some decisions are just unexplainable. I think he has no faith in the kicking game and the ducks edge them in that area. So really the Trojans have more experience at QB and hme field. Yes the Trojans are off a bye the have not played since the 16th bu the ducks had a week day game last week so they have also had some extra time to get ready. Looking at Oregon beating Stanford and everyone. Else by a large margin I see value in the number especially after being jumped by auburn. They have gone into tenn and Arizona st and won. I really like the ability of Oregon to make half time adjustments. This team has not just won from the opening kick. They were down in a few games and know how to play hard with and without the lead. Oregon won by a large margin last season, I think they play hard and even though USC has the home field the ducks quiet them early. I do not think USC has been tested by a team with this type of speed, spread offense, read option with a very fast and playmaking ability on defense. I also give an edge to Oregon in special teams both returning and the ability to block something considering the kicking issues for the Trojans. It is a huge game for the ducks and as long as they don't beat them selves I think they win on every side of the ball and get a double digit win.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

WVU (-7) over UCONN
I am pretty sure both teams are a little sick after last weeks games. WVU just looked terrible and UCONN was dominated. WVU is 6-0 against UCONN of late however UCONN has moved the ball well. WVU has managed more points and where it counts (on the scoreboard) WVU has an average winning score of 40-17. But those are not the bill Stewart games. I honestly an sick of bill's approach dowager winning. It is seen on the sidelines and in the players. As they say a team takes on the personality of the coach... That's not good for WVU. His team has no killer instinct. They either win close or they lose because they can't handle the pressure. I honestly think WVU should have won the LSU game but they were not up to the situation. I am sure some Mountie fans would disagree but it is what I have seen. So can they go on the road and rebound? Well under bill WVU was outgained for the first time in five years so I expect UCONN can run and pass at will, after all Cuse looked very good against this defense. Can the offense get on track, they have a good QB but they just are not able to run the ball well enough to be as high powered as years past. That being said I still think they have more talent. If Stewart could get the emotional response he got in the bowl game when coach rod left this team would be in the top ten right now. Instead ugh. What do I expect, well I think smith can throw on this team. Against Cuse once he threw a pick you saw him second guess throws and that doubt led to held balls and sacks. Get the kid in open space if the read breaks down and run forest run. How about some screen passes to Devine not sanders but Devine and out of the back field. UCONN is going to bring heat so dump it off and give Devine the chance to do what he is good at doing. Defensively BLITZ I mean I know it was Cuse but would it have hurt you to dial it up a bit. Stop all aspects of the run, safety shadow QB and lbs shadow the back. Unconn will not he as good if they have to throw or have long down and distance. I am scared of this because of Stewart and UCONN being home but I questioned why the line is so high. This indicated WVU is ten points better than UCONN really? I think it just seems like it wants UCONN money but then again WVU is considered by some still an offensive power that the name alone might draw money. Still I don't think the average player is that dumb. Both teams embarrassed, both teams struggle to find offense, UCONN home field with the more experienced QB and better head coach. All my thoughts make be think UCONN can easily win this game and seven is a gift in conference that's a very LIVE dog. So I will go with WVU and expect the players find some type of emotion and energy and not look confused and at each other on the sideline. Get these fast guys in space and go up top with them and use the big guys for possessions and use the hammer is short yardage. With the talent WVU has it is really a shame what they are doing so I am playing they turn it around. That or they get down to UCONN and get the gee willikers attitude and that's all she wrote on them this year.

Cheers
Irish

 

[rubiconed]

GL Irish !!! Thanks for the write-ups, and looking at Boise and the Over !!! :toast:

 

[AR182]

May be against you on the Oregon / USC game....But good luck this week........

 

[Irish]

FSU (-4) over NC st
First the Nole are off An embarrassing performance at home against BC on the 16th. FSU has won the last three over NC st. Last year these teams had zero in regard to defense with 80 plus points scored and over 1000 total yards. Now looking at these teams I don't think either played well in their last game. NC st struggled against ECU and BC moved the ball on FSU something BC has struggled with all season. I would think jimbo has some choice words for stoops the defensive coordinator considering the eagles GASHED FSU all game long. Now ECU really won that NC st game but the score doesn't show it. They were going into the wndzone to go up very late in the game and the ECU running back fumbled the ball and it went through the endzone for a touchback. Interesting point is both FSU and NC st struggled against BC so I think these teams are similar. FSU has been able to run the ball and they should continue that because the NC state defense has not looked good on the run. NC state should be able to pass on FSU with ease because the secondary has not played well. A big key for me here is the defense blitz pressure FSU you bring in this game. I would hope that stoops watched the ECU film and saw a less talented defense get home on Russell using the blitz. Get home and Russell will get frazzled. He did not look like the same kid against ECU he kinda looked like the russell of two years ago with missed reads, forced throws and a turnover. I think all of that was due to ECU blitzing and getting him moving in the pocket. Now FSU look better offensively against BC, the only reason I say that is because I think BC has a very good defense and FSU was able to score points. Ponder made a few very bad throws and hurt his team a few times. I likes how FSU looked in the redzone. They stopped a good running back and a very good o-line. Should be interesting game at little nervous about four but an a leaning in the speed and power of FSU being a bit too much like against VT. I like O'Brien as a coach but I think the FSU staff is very good and get a solid effort is a big game with regard to ACC standing.

I give credit to LaTech... I thought they were ready to give up a few times last night in route to a cover but they battled all the way til end whistle.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Org st (-2.5) over Cal
I love the homefield advantage in this game. Cal is a very bad road team VERY bad. Org st is a very GOOD home team. Almost everything went right for Cal last week but yet again that was a home game. On the road Cal has been beat up in the case of double digits. First this is home coming in Corvallis, the beavers are off a bye week and a home field against a poor cal bear defense. Cal has built the offense around running the ball, Riley is inconsistent and add to the road issues and the beavers have won four of the last five. Riley at home is 37-19 over his time at org st. He is 14-5 off a bye week. Overall I like what org st brings in regards to speed compared to Cal. I also think org st defense lines up well against Tedfords offensive gameplan as you cn see considering the advantage org st has had of the past few years. I know injuries are a concern on the beavers team but when one goes down the other plays better. Other guys are stepping up and even the QB is playing beyond his experience level. Offensively I know the beavers can score on Cal. My one worry is in this pro style offense when Cal gets a helmet on a helmet in the trenches will Vereen run all over them as Javid best did last year. Considering Riley has struggles I would drop all line backers into the box area and read run and cover edges only. Org st has a very good group in the secondary. They are experienced and can handle themselves if they get no middle level support from the backers. That being said, I think org st will be able to score and move the ball. I think the beavers will be pumped up for this BIG game with regard to bowls and PAC ten standing. I think Cal will struggle and make mistakes. Cal is a bad road team as we have seen all season, but in Corvallis a good road team struggles. So I think a team that hurts themselves and travels poorly will be in for a problem against a team historically five times better in their home stadium.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

FSU/ NC state UNDER (59)
In the past five years these two team have come close or gone over 1 of 5. Both teams coming off games where turnovers and poor play almost cost them. Clean it up tighten it up and play hard on both sides of the ball is what I am thinking. Both teams averages scoring 30 and giving up 30 last year, I think they have cut down on the issues which turned this into a 40 plus points game on both aides last season.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Just a question and I would love someone to answer it.... As a player and coach I am honestly shocked when you see a game like last night. Did anyone see Stoops use of the linebackers in coverage. Wow rushing four on a twist stunt while stoping lb in press drag coverage with no release. I can see it once but way to not know your competition.

WVU/UCONN OVER (46)
Well these teams have gone over this number for the last five years. I think the previous week ZERO UCONN points and the sad WVU output against Cuse might have pulled this down enough. I think both rebound offensively, question at QB in UCONN so now the year starter is back.

Georgia (-3) over Florida
In the last two years Georgia has been outscored 90-47. That has to piss some of the dogs off. Last year they were still trying to score up big. In fact the last two years myer has put the blade in and twisted. All the offensive members for those games are back for this game. Some things that are troublesome. After a week off or with extra time myers is 18-2. They have also won 10 of the last 12. But the question is do the gators have the prices in place for this game. Honestly a lot of folks are all over Burton because of his athletic ability... If that's all that mattered every team would put a running back under center. Brantley is the better option IMO. On the road the gators have not been impressive in fact Florida has not looked good in the last few games. Georgia the better quarter back and the more experience group around him. Ever since Green has come back the Georgia offense has been clicking. The question is what defense does more to stop the other. Both teams return limited experience but I think the Georgia has the better linebackers but the gators edge in the other areas. One of the reasons I am on Georgia because they can score often. I do not think Georgia will shut the gators down so they need to outacore them. I think they are better suited for that type of game. The dogs are strong on offense so that's where they out play Florida. This is a huge game for both teams but I think the dogs come in with more of a chip. When a team that have been great for a few years and put it on folks has a little down period those teams want a little pay back. Since I can see the defense for both teams making plays above what they should but I think those plays come easier with the Georgia defense. I think they get on the gator QB and issues pop up. I am also questioning if the Florida secondary can stop the WR of Georgia.

Cheers
Irish