It wasn?t easy to hate the Duke Blue Devils last year. They might have all the personality of a digestible biscuit, but the Blue Devils capitalized on boring fundamentals and discipline to go 23-14-2 ATS en route to college basketball?s national championship. Duke ranked No. 15 in all of Division I against the college basketball odds. What?s not to love?
This affair can?t go on forever. A new season starts next Monday, and Duke?s chances of raking in that kind of cash again are not quite as appealing. The defending champions won?t be able to sneak up to the pay window, not as 5-1 favorites to make it back-to-back titles. The Blue Devils would have to improve on the basketball court this year to make up for that lost betting value.
But it can be done. Here?s how the previous 10 national champions before Duke handled the basketball betting lines the following season:
2009-10 North Carolina: 13-22 ATS
2008-09 Kansas: 20-8-1
2007-08 Florida: 14-13
2006-07 Florida: 17-15-1
2005-06 North Carolina: 18-10-1
2004-05 Connecticut: 16-11
2003-04 Syracuse: 12-15
2002-03 Maryland: 11-17
2001-02 Duke: 17-17
2000-01 Michigan State: 18-12-1
1999-2000 Connecticut: 13-16-1
Quite a mixed bag in there. Some of these championship teams, like Kansas two years ago, did well even after having to rebuild their starting rotations. Duke has three starters to replace: top scorer Jon Scheyer, top rebounder Brian Zoubek and solid power forward Lance Thomas. However, coach Mike Krzyzewski is one of the best recruiters in college basketball. Zoubek and Thomas will be replaced by the promising Plumlee Brothers, Miles and Mason. Freshman sensation Kyrie Irving, the top-ranked point guard coming out of high school, will take over Scheyer?s duties handling the ball. There will be no shortage of talent at Cameron Indoor Stadium this year.
There?s a sizeable gap between Duke and the second favorites on the odds board, the Michigan State Spartans at 9-1. Tom Izzo?s team is second to Duke on the preseason coaches? poll after reaching the Final Four in back-to-back seasons, losing 52-50 to the Butler Bulldogs (?1.5) at the national semifinals in April. The Spartans were 28-9 SU and just 15-21 ATS last year; there isn?t much rebuilding to do in East Lansing, and blue-chip freshman Adreian Payne could be an instant upgrade over Raymar Morgan in the MSU frontcourt.
Michigan State will have to navigate a very difficult conference, but the job got easier when the Purdue Boilermakers (29-6 SU, 14-19-2 ATS) lost forward Robbie Hummel for the season. Hummel (15.7 points, 6.9 rebounds per game) tore the ACL in his right knee for the second time in eight months and will have to delay his senior campaign for one more year. This could actually give Purdue some betting value after slipping to 20-1 on the NCAAB championship futures market. The Boilers still have two of their Big Three in E?Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, who combined for 31.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game while playing strong defense. Finding some other sources of offense will be difficult, though.
The next contenders are led by John Calipari?s Kentucky Wildcats at 10-1, followed closely by Frank Martin?s Kansas State Wildcats at 12-1. The Wildcats make a lot of sense here as the No. 3 team in the preseason rankings ? Wally Judge and Freddy Asprilla have the physical tools to step up and make this the best frontcourt in the Big 12. As for the Wildcats, they?re the preseason No. 10 team, but there?s been so much hype about 6-foot-11, 270-pound Turkish center Enes Kanter that bettors are willing to forget about the loss of DeMarcus Cousins. And Brandon Knight is yet another one-and-done point guard prospect for Calipari, following in the sneakers of Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans and John Wall.
You?ll also find the North Carolina Tar Heels at 18-1 before you get to Purdue and a logjam of viable contenders at 20-1. North Carolina has won two championships under Roy Williams, but didn?t even make the NCAA Tournament last year under the weight of too many developing freshmen. This year?s team will be back in contention after adding Harrison Barnes, the top-ranked recruit at small forward. Those Duke-North Carolina games on February 9 (in Durham) and March 5 (at Chapel Hill) should be well worth watching.
This affair can?t go on forever. A new season starts next Monday, and Duke?s chances of raking in that kind of cash again are not quite as appealing. The defending champions won?t be able to sneak up to the pay window, not as 5-1 favorites to make it back-to-back titles. The Blue Devils would have to improve on the basketball court this year to make up for that lost betting value.
But it can be done. Here?s how the previous 10 national champions before Duke handled the basketball betting lines the following season:
2009-10 North Carolina: 13-22 ATS
2008-09 Kansas: 20-8-1
2007-08 Florida: 14-13
2006-07 Florida: 17-15-1
2005-06 North Carolina: 18-10-1
2004-05 Connecticut: 16-11
2003-04 Syracuse: 12-15
2002-03 Maryland: 11-17
2001-02 Duke: 17-17
2000-01 Michigan State: 18-12-1
1999-2000 Connecticut: 13-16-1
Quite a mixed bag in there. Some of these championship teams, like Kansas two years ago, did well even after having to rebuild their starting rotations. Duke has three starters to replace: top scorer Jon Scheyer, top rebounder Brian Zoubek and solid power forward Lance Thomas. However, coach Mike Krzyzewski is one of the best recruiters in college basketball. Zoubek and Thomas will be replaced by the promising Plumlee Brothers, Miles and Mason. Freshman sensation Kyrie Irving, the top-ranked point guard coming out of high school, will take over Scheyer?s duties handling the ball. There will be no shortage of talent at Cameron Indoor Stadium this year.
There?s a sizeable gap between Duke and the second favorites on the odds board, the Michigan State Spartans at 9-1. Tom Izzo?s team is second to Duke on the preseason coaches? poll after reaching the Final Four in back-to-back seasons, losing 52-50 to the Butler Bulldogs (?1.5) at the national semifinals in April. The Spartans were 28-9 SU and just 15-21 ATS last year; there isn?t much rebuilding to do in East Lansing, and blue-chip freshman Adreian Payne could be an instant upgrade over Raymar Morgan in the MSU frontcourt.
Michigan State will have to navigate a very difficult conference, but the job got easier when the Purdue Boilermakers (29-6 SU, 14-19-2 ATS) lost forward Robbie Hummel for the season. Hummel (15.7 points, 6.9 rebounds per game) tore the ACL in his right knee for the second time in eight months and will have to delay his senior campaign for one more year. This could actually give Purdue some betting value after slipping to 20-1 on the NCAAB championship futures market. The Boilers still have two of their Big Three in E?Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson, who combined for 31.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game while playing strong defense. Finding some other sources of offense will be difficult, though.
The next contenders are led by John Calipari?s Kentucky Wildcats at 10-1, followed closely by Frank Martin?s Kansas State Wildcats at 12-1. The Wildcats make a lot of sense here as the No. 3 team in the preseason rankings ? Wally Judge and Freddy Asprilla have the physical tools to step up and make this the best frontcourt in the Big 12. As for the Wildcats, they?re the preseason No. 10 team, but there?s been so much hype about 6-foot-11, 270-pound Turkish center Enes Kanter that bettors are willing to forget about the loss of DeMarcus Cousins. And Brandon Knight is yet another one-and-done point guard prospect for Calipari, following in the sneakers of Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans and John Wall.
You?ll also find the North Carolina Tar Heels at 18-1 before you get to Purdue and a logjam of viable contenders at 20-1. North Carolina has won two championships under Roy Williams, but didn?t even make the NCAA Tournament last year under the weight of too many developing freshmen. This year?s team will be back in contention after adding Harrison Barnes, the top-ranked recruit at small forward. Those Duke-North Carolina games on February 9 (in Durham) and March 5 (at Chapel Hill) should be well worth watching.
