Buffalo @ Bengals

WayneWonder

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11-9 ytd

The Bengals dropped their sixth straight game Sunday to the Colts, losing despite possessing the ball with less than two minutes to play in a game they ultimately lost by six points. They had no business being in that game after turning the ball five times, yet they hung around, much like they have all season. They have lost each of their last six by a TD or less.

For the first time all year, the Bills looked like they knew they could win. They were a step faster to the ball, and seemed to play a bit faster and were generally assignment sound. That's what happens when you think you can win.

I like a situation like we have this week. An inferior team (Bengals) has a great chance to knock off a superior team (Colts) and allows the chance to slip through their hands. My experience has been that the next week that team comes out a bit flat and disappointed. The right team can take advantage of this. Two recent examples are Arizona blowing a late fourth quarter lead against Minnesota and Detroit falling to the Jets in OT, both in week nine. Both teams came out flat and lost games against winnable opponents.

With Buffalo getting a taste of winning, that can be contagious. They have performed well against elite teams this year, only to fall short in the end. They played not to lose instead of to win. Despite the victory last week, they retreated to a fraidy-cat fourth quarter, almost losing the game again. It is tough for any team to get excited about a matchup between two basement teams in late November, but where does any motivation come for from the Bengals?? Buffalo has been a better than expected road team over the last few years, with seven of their fourteen wins coming on the road since 2008.

Bills +5.5
Bills +215
 

WayneWonder

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Miami -1

On a short week, I favor the home team, EXCEPT when there is a large discrepancy in talent between the two. Miami is down to their third string QB, normally a disaster. Yet, Thigpen has been a starter in this league in before with Kansas City. The Bears have beaten just one team with a winning record all year. Jay Cutler has also shown a propensity to make the big mistake when playing at night. He is just 6-11 with 25 TDs and 25 INTs. His passer rating is just under 80.0. Miami is the better team, in the better conference, at home, on a short week in basically a pick 'em game.

This Thursday I'll be taking my talents to South Beach.
 

gjn23

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fyi

pigpen has started 11 games in his career

he's 1-10

but as you said....cutler hasnt won a road primetime game in his career

one streak end thurs night

special teams makes a difference.....bears win 24-14
 

WayneWonder

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fyi

pigpen has started 11 games in his career

he's 1-10

Point noted. I tend to believe that was more the product of him playing for an awful team that won just two games that year. Thigpen scored 22 touchdowns (18 passing, three rushing and one receiving) against 12 interceptions in just 11 starts during his time as starter. In college the dude was a winner. He finished 30-8 as a starter and this was at a school that began playing football in 2003.
 

WayneWonder

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New Orleans -11.5

The Saints, not the Ravens, are laying the biggest number of the weekend. Seattle has been a tough team to figure out and it's not as simple as they play well at home and lousy on the road. Just take a look at their last two results. But there is a common refrain. When Seattle gets beaten, they get beaten. All of their losses have come by 17 points or more. Seeing as I like New Orleans to win, I'll eat the chalk...
 

WayneWonder

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San Francisco -3.5


The Niners started 0-5, but have won three of four with a resurgent Troy Smith at QB. The NFC West being the NFC West, the Niners are indeed kind of back in it. But the 49ers also haven?t beaten a team with a winning record yet this season. Playing at home against a Tampa Bay team whose winning record has felt kind of iffy might be the simplest way for the Niners to get that particular monkey off their back. If it is ever going to happen for San Francisco, it?s going to have to happen this week. I think it will.
 
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