Auburn +4

TLankford

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Gonna be the biggest play of the year. Have only bet on my team 3 times this year: Miss State, Arky, Georgia. Covered all 3 games. I was hoping the line stayed up at +6 like it was the last couple weeks. Missed out on that in the futures games bets.

Have a few other early plays for this week. Not big on posting plays on message boards just cause everyone with a keyboard does it and majority of folks are run of the mill 40-50% pickers but I just like a few games for a lot this week.

FWIW 2 posted plays this year were winners

Auburn +4
Auburn ML - whenever it comes out

Thoughts on this game were on a previous thread last week, I think the title was "Futures Game Bet" over around page 5 if you care to read

Oklahoma State -2.5 been betting on them every week since UL-L friday night game and they have only cost me one time. Stillwater is a tough place to come in and steal a W and OU is a horrible road team that I think blew their load last week against Baylor

Georgia -13 team has gotten better over the course of the year. GT is not a good team. ACC is just not that good in general. Georgia needs this game to go to a bowl. Once they get up, GT won't be able to option their way back into it. And they sure as hell won't be able to throw it

TCU -42 New Mexico is garbage. TCU in need of one more blowout since Boise has closed the BCS rankings gap and is liable to jump TCU with a good win over Nevada. TCU needs to win by 60 and they are very capable of beating them 70-0.
 
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TLankford

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put an actual write-up on another forum, figured I would cut and paste it over here as well:


First off AU is 6-1 in Tuscaloosa. I don't want to hear the argument that most of those wins were against Bama's team during the "dark ages". I don't give a chit if you were on probation during 3 of those wins.

More than a FG in the Iron Bowl is a gift. Hopefully nobody tries to bring this up as a point to why someone should bet on Bama but: nothing is going to change in the Newton situation this week. Just wanted to get that out of the way

- Auburn's run defense....
.... has been great this year. We were able to shut down Ingram and TR last year when Bama's OL was head and shoulders above what it is this year. We have been stuffing the run all year. Shut down Lattimore - seems like we're the only team that's really accomplished that. Shut down King and Eley - granted they are no TR/MI but they are a solid 1-2 backfield. Clemson is the only team that has really gashed us on the ground and I think that was due to them being the first good running team we faced. OM had one big run on the 2nd play of the game and after that we didn't give up much on the ground. Our front 7 is a solid as can be. (the 2 suspended DL are backups BTW) I really don't see TR/MI beating us, as we will load the box up with at least 7 all day and make McElroy beat us - like we have done in just about every game. Bama's offensive line has question marks. I believe Fluker is back healthy, but Barrett Jones (i think is his name) starting RG hasn't done too much besides riding the bike all week - Bama fans any update if this is incorrect??? Oline vs. Dline on both sides of the ball will be where this game is won. Trenches. I think Auburn has the advantage here

- Bama's defense....
... is not anywhere near as good as they were last year. Plenty of talent on that side of the ball as expected, but too young and inexperienced. They have excelled in the red zone, but teams have been driving down the field all year on this team. Auburn has excelled in the redzone. Should be a good matchup of Auburn O vs. Bama D inside the 20 but this is where Cam has been unstoppable. People talk about Auburn's Secondary (will get to that next), but Bama's secondary - besides Barron who is raw - is pretty young and definitely it's weak link. Millner is as much of a liability for Bama as Thorpe is for Auburn. I think Bama will try to key on Newton like everyone else has the last 4 weeks. They should be more successful on stopping mccaleb on the outside because Bama LBs are fast and the 3-4 sets up nicely funneling runs back inside. However I think Dyer and Newton will be able to get a nice 3-6 yards per carry inside because we've been beating people outside the last few games and expect at least one "trick play" that malz always seems to save for the Iron Bowl.

- Auburn's Secondary...
... is the only real matchup that I am worried about, mainly: Julio vs. Desmond Washington. We tried to play man on AJ Green with Washington in the 1st half of that game with very little safety help. He got burnt play after play until we were basically doubling Green. If we try to do this vs. Julio - we will get burnt again and again until we wise up and roll a safety over for help. I think you will see a LOT of 4-5 yard hitches called from McElwain to try and get our corners to creep up to the line. We've been pretty much giving that pass away all year, no secret there. In a few big games this year, McElwain has abandoned the run it looked like, after a quarter or two of it getting shut down. If this happens Friday, I really feel like Bama's offense will struggle. They've already shown that pass protection isn't their strong suit. AC and Euguae could have big games if #1 - bama's OL isn't 100% and #2 - they double fairley all game, which seems like the only solution at this point. Also I'm expecting Maze to burn someone at least one time in the game probably 2-3, but McElroy and the deep ball aren't best friends... 50-50 chance the ball comes down out of play.

This game is gonna be won in the trenches. Bottom line is I think Auburn has been winning that battle all year. Our rushing vs. Opposing team rushing isn't even close this year. Don't feel like looking up the #s but Auburn vs. Bama in the Sacks department isn't even in the same area code. As far as special teams, I am pretty sure one of our teams will run a kickoff back a long ways. TR or Washington will take one to the other side of the fiend, and maybe score. Bama's Kicker is a huge liability. Byrum has been solid as a rock this year. Get an advantage there in the FG game.

It's gonna be a hell of a game and I will be -respectfully- cheering for my team in BDS on Friday. Whole city is gonna be busting with anticipation by Friday and the opening kickoff may register as a minor earthquake on the Richter.

Anyone that thinks either team will get blown out by 21+ go ahead and post elsewhere.

Normally a $50-$100 a game bettor. Already put $400 on +4.5 and will be putting an extra $100-150 on the +ML whenever it comes out at my site. Just to give anyone interested an idea of how much I like the game.
 

Cie

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Ritter crew is on this game. Big bonus for Aub. Their calls seem to benefit the team that is in the best position to help the conference.
 

TLankford

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Just put a dog biscuit in 2 bowls. one labeled Auburn and one Bama.

My dog at the Auburn biscuit first.

Baxter Biscuit pick: Auburn +155 for 2 units.

already have 4 units on +4.5

Half unit on Auburn -3.5 +220
 

jrush2525

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come on dude do u actually think Auburn would lay 6 on the road against Bama?

Nope, I don't understand why if you are a fan of a team you can't bet on your team. I think I know more about Auburn than the average fan, the home field and public perception is the reason for the line.
 

ageecee

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Nope, I don't understand why if you are a fan of a team you can't bet on your team. I think I know more about Auburn than the average fan, the home field and public perception is the reason for the line.




dude you can bet on ur team i dont care i was just saying that you would never consider Bama in this spot and its not a surprise that you picked Auburn.
 

jrush2525

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dude you can bet on ur team i dont care i was just saying that you would never consider Bama in this spot and its not a surprise that you picked Auburn.

So, I guess your saying their is no point in my posts. I think Bama has a good team and a good coach, I give them props, hell I'm married to a Bama fan. I would like to think that I can make a pick and not get shit for it because I'm an Auburn fan.
 

ageecee

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So, I guess your saying their is no point in my posts. I think Bama has a good team and a good coach, I give them props, hell I'm married to a Bama fan. I would like to think that I can make a pick and not get shit for it because I'm an Auburn fan.




enjoy the game Auburn has much more to lose than Bama does. SC aint beating Auburn next week so i consider this Auburns 1st National Title game. If they win the 2nd one will be in January.
 

Trampled Underfoot

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Nope, I don't understand why if you are a fan of a team you can't bet on your team. I think I know more about Auburn than the average fan, the home field and public perception is the reason for the line.

Most people are big time homers. Which is why betting on your team is usually big time trouble. Using this year as a way to measure your objectivity about your team doesn't work. They are undefeated. :mj07:

Add up your performance over the last 10 years and see what you come up with.

Anyway I don't have a bet on the game, but i'll be rooting against Scam all day long.
 

jrush2525

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Most people are big time homers. Which is why betting on your team is usually big time trouble. Using this year as a way to measure your objectivity about your team doesn't work. They are undefeated. :mj07:

Add up your performance over the last 10 years and see what you come up with.

Anyway I don't have a bet on the game, but i'll be rooting against Scam all day long.

Auburn is 7 and 3 in the last 10 years and 4 and 1 in TTown.
 

Sun Tzu

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It might be a tad more than home field. For example if you used sagarin power rating a bam a would be a 10 pt fave. Auburn's ranking actually has kept the line down. Heck I saw at one site 80% of bets are on Auburn and line hasn't budged.
 

UGA12

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lankfordforAU and jrushforAU, yall just be sure to call in your even bigger bama bets at the half and come back and tell us how you actually made money on the game.
 
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