College Plays for Week #13....

[AR182]

Not doing well in totals, but yet I am still playing them....Go figure....lol....

Under 50(120) Col / Neb....

In the first 8 games whille Martinez (Neb. qb) was healthy their offense produced on average 38 ppg & 459 ypg....In the last 3 games with Martinez hurting, the Neb.offense has averaged 19 ppg & 339 ypg....& for the season their defense allows 151 ypg (3.8 ypc) rushing....The reason why I am not playing Col. is that I don't trust them after pulling upsets the last 2 games....

Neb. is 11-3 under vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons....The average score was Neb. 23.5, opponent 13.7....

Neb. is 7-0 under in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons....
The average score was Neb. 15.4, opponent 12.3....

Good luck....

 

[jorge]

Why always buying points?

Why always buying points?

Especially on totals?

Too much vig to lay constantly

Gluck

 

[AR182]

Especially on totals?

Too much vig to lay constantly

Gluck

Thanks & you're right....

 

[AR182]

Adding 1 more play for today....

Az.St.-12....

Imo, ASU is not as bad as their record of 4-6....They have had 4 losses by 4 ponts or less....They lost 20-19 at Wisconsin; 31-28 at Oregon State, 34-33 at USC & 17-13 vs. Stanford....For the season ASU is averaging 36.2 ppg at home, while the defense is allowing 17.6 ppg....

UCLA has lost 4 of its last 5 games, including 3 Pac-10 road losses to Cal, Oregon & Wash. by a combined score of 119-27....& in those 3 road games, UCLA's offense generated 144, 290 and 163 total yards while giving up 387, 582 & 321 yards....& for the season, the UCLA defense allows 32.4 ppg, 245 ypg (5.8 ypr) on the ground & a 61% completion % (63.7% for the season)....UCLA?s offense is averaging 114.2 ypg passing & is the 4th-worst in the nation....& the quarterbacks have a combined 5 TD passes against 12 INTs this season....

An interesting stat on the ASU coach....Erickson is 10-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in all games he has coached since 1992....The average score was Erickson 35.9, Opponent 11.5....

Good luck....

 

[Cie]

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving. Col under look good with Martinez out and other Husker injuries on offense. GL:toast:

 

[AR182]

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving. Col under look good with Martinez out and other Husker injuries on offense. GL:toast:

Thanks Cie....Hope you had a great day yesterday also....

 

[AR182]

Will start posting Saturday's plays....

Miss.+3....

Last week MSU lost in double OT to Arkansas & Miss. lost in the last minute to LSU....

Miss. has shown the ability to bounce back after such a loss as they are 6-1 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards in their last game & are 7-2 ATS after allowing 40 or more points in their previous game....They are also 10-4 ATS when installed as an underdog overall....

It has been documented this year by Coach K & Morris that teams don't do well the week after losing a game in OT....The record for this year is....4-10 ATS in their next game....

2 systems....

Play On single digit home dogs (Miss) off a road game if they allowed 40 or more points vs an opponent that scored 40 or more points against them last year....Since 1981 the ATS record for this system is....65-25....72.2%....

The system's record for this year is....2-0....

Play On - A home team (Miss) - after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games, with 4 or fewer offensive starters returning....

Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....34-11....75.6%....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Penn.St.+2....

Since PSU switched to McGloin at QB, they have won 4 of 5 & are averaging over 33 ppg....They are 18-1 SU & 15-4 ATs in the last home game of the season....MSU hasn't won at PSU since 1965 & are 2-7 ATS in the last road game of the season & are 1-8 ATS after playing Purdue....


Rice+3....

Rice is 20-1-1 ATS as a conference home dog when they have at least 1 win on the season....UAB is 1-6 ATS as a conference road favorite....

Play Against - A road team (UAB) - after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games....

Since 1992 the ATS record for this system is....53-22....70.7%....


BYU+10(120)....

11 of last 13 games in this series have been decided by 7 or less points....BYU is 16-3 ATS as a conference dog vs. a sub .850 opposition....The dog in this series is 13-4 ATS....Utah wrapped up a Fiesta Bowl bid with last weeks win....

Good luck....

 

[BadAngel]

GL Al. I like a couple of them too.

 

[AR182]

Thanks BA....Good luck also....

This is who I have so far for today....

Miss+3....
Penn St+2....
Rice+3....
BYU+10(120)....
Marshall-10(120)....
Kentucky+3....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Adding....

Calif.-6(120)....Best Bet....

Got this earlier today at Bookmaker....

Looking for Calif. to rebound big at home after losing at home to Oregon & Stanford....Even including those 2 games. the at home stats for Calif. are very strong....They have outscored the opposition by an average of 36-16 & outgained their foes by an average of 354-248 ypg....Wash. on the other hand hasn't performed well at all on the road where they allow an average of 239 ypg on the ground & a 70% completion % & 37.7 ppg....

Here is an interesting trend....

Calif. is 10-0 ATS in a home games where the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 3 seasons.....The average score was Calif 39.2, Opponent 15.7....

Good luck....