Below is an article from David Payne:shrug:
I thought there was some interesting info in there to share with the board.
10 Things DP Learned Betting 2010 College Football
1. Bet on teams that can throw the football
Old-school, I-formation power-running teams aren?t getting it done in today?s game. You have to be creative with your running game or be able to throw the ball all over the lot.
The Top 10 passing offenses went 70-47-1 ATS this season.
2. Winners Cover
You?ve got to bet on teams you believe have a chance to win the game.
Since the 1999-2000 season, the team that wins the game has covered the spread 73.4 percent of the time. That means underdogs that didn?t win straight up covered less than 30 percent
In addition, only two of the Top 20 ATS performers this season had a losing record. Arizona State is 5-6 straight up, but 7-2-2 against the spread. Washington State is 2-9 straight up, but 7-4 against the spread.
Focus on good teams that have a chance to win the game
3. Road Favorites
I?ve drilled you guys with this one all season, but it remains true. Road favorites cover at a higher percentage than home dogs, home favorites or road dogs.
This season, road favorites covered 55.33 percent of the time. Home favorites came in at 50.81 percent, away dogs ? 49.19 percent, and home dogs ? 44.67 percent.
If you add a few road favorites to your card each week, you?re picking from a larger pool of winners.
4. Bet On Virginia Tech In November
After going 3-1 in November this season, the Hokies are now 23-6 ATS in November since 2004. Frank Beamer?s coaching philosophy has his team peaking late every season. Remember this next November.
5. Experience Matters
These 10 teams entered August with the most returning starters: Boise State, Ball State, Miami (OH), Syracuse, Washington, Missouri, North Carolina, North Texas, Texas A&M, Western Kentucky.
Heading into this week?s regular-season finales, those teams were a combined 70-54-2 against the spread.
6. Fade The National Champion Runner-Up
Texas is the latest national champion runner-up to suffer a major letdown.
The Longhorns went 3-9 ATS this season, the worst mark of any team to lose the national championship game the previous season.
But that?s nothing new.
In the BCS era, a lot of things have to go right for a team to reach the National Championship Game. Fumbles bounce back into running backs hands, tipped passes land directly in defensive linemen?s hands, and usually-steady kickers miss field goals that keep title hopes alive.
The Law of Averages says those breaks will even out in the long run. And it usually happens the season after an emotional championship march.
Only two of the 12 teams that lost the BCS national championship game have posted a winning ATS record the following season. They are a combined 67-79-1 ATS the season after losing the big game.
7. Bet Overs Early And Unders Late
Three weeks into the season, overs were hitting at a ridiculous 63.90 percent clip. But unders, as usual, rallied in November, including cashing in 61.54 percent of last week?s action. Which, of course, brings right to back to a near 50/50 spilt at the end of the season.
8. Bet Against Teams That Can?t Throw The Ball
Yes, this is similar to No. 1, but it?s even more profitable.
The 10 worst teams in terms of passing efficiency are a pathetic 48-87 ATS this season.
9. Don?t Mess With Boise State
Despite enormous hype, the Broncos went 8-3 ATS - their third straight winning ATS season. They?ll leave the WAC and head to the MWC after covering at least 51 of their 77 conference games (Utah State pending).
10. Respect Successful Second-Year Coaches
In my opinion, college football coaches can make a bigger impact on a team than in any other sport. We?re poised to have two second-year coaches meet in the championship game in Auburn?s Gene Chizik and Oregon?s Chip Kelly. Each led their teams to bowl games in the first season. Mississippi State?s Dan Mullen is another prime example.
Next year, keep an eye on Florida State in Jimbo Fisher?s second season and Tennessee in Derek Dooley?s second year in Knoxville.
I thought there was some interesting info in there to share with the board.
10 Things DP Learned Betting 2010 College Football
1. Bet on teams that can throw the football
Old-school, I-formation power-running teams aren?t getting it done in today?s game. You have to be creative with your running game or be able to throw the ball all over the lot.
The Top 10 passing offenses went 70-47-1 ATS this season.
2. Winners Cover
You?ve got to bet on teams you believe have a chance to win the game.
Since the 1999-2000 season, the team that wins the game has covered the spread 73.4 percent of the time. That means underdogs that didn?t win straight up covered less than 30 percent
In addition, only two of the Top 20 ATS performers this season had a losing record. Arizona State is 5-6 straight up, but 7-2-2 against the spread. Washington State is 2-9 straight up, but 7-4 against the spread.
Focus on good teams that have a chance to win the game
3. Road Favorites
I?ve drilled you guys with this one all season, but it remains true. Road favorites cover at a higher percentage than home dogs, home favorites or road dogs.
This season, road favorites covered 55.33 percent of the time. Home favorites came in at 50.81 percent, away dogs ? 49.19 percent, and home dogs ? 44.67 percent.
If you add a few road favorites to your card each week, you?re picking from a larger pool of winners.
4. Bet On Virginia Tech In November
After going 3-1 in November this season, the Hokies are now 23-6 ATS in November since 2004. Frank Beamer?s coaching philosophy has his team peaking late every season. Remember this next November.
5. Experience Matters
These 10 teams entered August with the most returning starters: Boise State, Ball State, Miami (OH), Syracuse, Washington, Missouri, North Carolina, North Texas, Texas A&M, Western Kentucky.
Heading into this week?s regular-season finales, those teams were a combined 70-54-2 against the spread.
6. Fade The National Champion Runner-Up
Texas is the latest national champion runner-up to suffer a major letdown.
The Longhorns went 3-9 ATS this season, the worst mark of any team to lose the national championship game the previous season.
But that?s nothing new.
In the BCS era, a lot of things have to go right for a team to reach the National Championship Game. Fumbles bounce back into running backs hands, tipped passes land directly in defensive linemen?s hands, and usually-steady kickers miss field goals that keep title hopes alive.
The Law of Averages says those breaks will even out in the long run. And it usually happens the season after an emotional championship march.
Only two of the 12 teams that lost the BCS national championship game have posted a winning ATS record the following season. They are a combined 67-79-1 ATS the season after losing the big game.
7. Bet Overs Early And Unders Late
Three weeks into the season, overs were hitting at a ridiculous 63.90 percent clip. But unders, as usual, rallied in November, including cashing in 61.54 percent of last week?s action. Which, of course, brings right to back to a near 50/50 spilt at the end of the season.
8. Bet Against Teams That Can?t Throw The Ball
Yes, this is similar to No. 1, but it?s even more profitable.
The 10 worst teams in terms of passing efficiency are a pathetic 48-87 ATS this season.
9. Don?t Mess With Boise State
Despite enormous hype, the Broncos went 8-3 ATS - their third straight winning ATS season. They?ll leave the WAC and head to the MWC after covering at least 51 of their 77 conference games (Utah State pending).
10. Respect Successful Second-Year Coaches
In my opinion, college football coaches can make a bigger impact on a team than in any other sport. We?re poised to have two second-year coaches meet in the championship game in Auburn?s Gene Chizik and Oregon?s Chip Kelly. Each led their teams to bowl games in the first season. Mississippi State?s Dan Mullen is another prime example.
Next year, keep an eye on Florida State in Jimbo Fisher?s second season and Tennessee in Derek Dooley?s second year in Knoxville.
