Three Game Chase System - Year Long Thread

[Woodson]

There won?t be any write-ups. I?ll just post my plays, bet amount, and potential winnings.

MONEY MANAGEMENT:
1. Will start with a bankroll of $1000.
2. No money line plays. Will only play point spreads (@ -110 juice).
3. I will be using a 3-game chase system. In order to only require a 33% winning percentage (1/3 picks correctly) and still make a profit every 3 games:
Original bankroll / 7.458 = BET #1
Original bankroll / 3.568 = BET #2
Original bankroll / 1.707 = BET #3
4. Every time I make a winning bet, my ?original bankroll? will reflect that.

Very simple example:

Bankroll: $1000
Bet #1: $130.41 to win $120.19

If I win:
My bankroll becomes $1120.19, and the new Bet # 1 becomes $1120.19 / 7.458 = $150.04

If I lose:

Bet # 2: $100o.00 / 3.568 = $280.02 to win 25.47.

If I win:

My bankroll becomes $1120.06 and so on??

If I lose:

Bet # 3: $1000/ 1.707 = $580.57 to win $530.25 and so on?....

Very simple concept as you can see.

Requires me to get 1/3 correct to keep the streak going, so any advice on games would be much appreciated!!!!!!!!!!!!

Once I double or triple my starting bankroll, I will revert to a 4 game chase system that will require me to only get 1/4 picks correct.

*NOTE: I found this while searching for chase systems and thought I would use it this year to see how I do. Thanks to Chessmaster for the idea.

:toast:

 

[Clem D]

Good Luck. I like it

 

[Woodson]

#1 Wager Fairfield -5

#1 Wager Fairfield -5

Firefox browser crashed when I posted this earlier.

#1 Wager Fairfield -5


Thanks Box and One for the great start.

Bankroll: $1000
Bet #1: $132 to win $120

New Bankroll for College Hoops: $1120


:toast:

 

[Woodson]

#2 Wager Kentucky -5 vs. Notre Dame

#2 Wager Kentucky -5 vs. Notre Dame

$150 / $136 Kentucky -5


:toast:

 

[Woodson]

$150 / $136 Kentucky -5


:toast:

Picking my spots. No play.

 

[BGFalcon]

I don't understand why you would risk such a high percentage of your bankroll per bet. If you lose three in a row your bankroll is gone. Even if you are a 55% handicapper, that will happen 9.4% of the time. That seems to be a high risk of ruin vs. return. Good luck.

 

[Woodson]

I don't understand why you would risk such a high percentage of your bankroll per bet. If you lose three in a row your bankroll is gone. Even if you are a 55% handicapper, that will happen 9.4% of the time. That seems to be a high risk of ruin vs. return. Good luck.

Simply put, it's not my bank roll. It's a test of discipline.

Thanks and good luck.

:toast:

 

[Woodson]

Kentucky wins and covers, d'oh and somehow I make $7 dollars after buying it back.

:0002

Too funny.

New bankroll: $1127

 

[Woodson]

Wager #3 Georgetown -1

Wager #3 Georgetown -1

$150/136


Georgetown -1 VS Temple

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[RyS]

Wow great line at -1, Im on the same but at -1.5 and thats after buying half ponit

GL

 

[Woodson]

Wow great line at -1, Im on the same but at -1.5 and thats after buying half ponit

GL

You're getting robbed. Huge difference in 8 am and after lunch when it cones to a small card in hoops.

Hope we win.

 

[Woodson]

Alabama @ Providence

Alabama @ Providence

Alabama +6 350/316

 

[Woodson]

A lot of winners outside of this thread the last seven days. I'll agree i'm unorganized.

I hit the last two plays as noted in new posts.


I'm off the next 17 days and will use this thread for the remainder of this years plays.

 

[Woodson]

Florida Atlantic

1ST HALF -115 -2.5 2 UNITS
FOR GAME -120 -4 2 UNITS

Florida Atlantic lost against Troy last year so there is no question they aren't looking past them. Troy's defense is weak allowing close to 78 points per game.

Florida Atlantic and Troy have similar SOS but power rankings have Troy at 305 vs FA's 109.

Ken Pomeroy has FA by 8. My only concern is that this looks WAY TOO Easy.

Playing both half and full game in case FA doesn't have the legs to finish.


Good luck tonight

:toast:

 

[Cie]

Right there with you. FAU has offensive and defensive edge. Midway through long road trip is an issue, but like you mentioned, revenge and loss last time out should prevent any concerns in that regard. I went 1h since they could hit a wall if they take a hefty lead into the half......

 

[Woodson]

Key Offensive Stats

<table class="tr_data" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <thead> <tr> <th class="gz_s_stat tr_al">Stat</th> <th class="gz_s_team_stat">FAU</th> <th class="gz_a_adv">adv</th> <th class="gz_s_team_stat">TROY</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">Off Efficiency</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">0.993</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">0.923</td> </tr> <tr class="tr_alt"> <td class="gz_factor_label">Effective FG %</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">46.3%</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">46.0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">Turnover %</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">13.4%</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">15.0%</td> </tr> <tr class="tr_alt"> <td class="gz_factor_label">Off Rebound %</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">28.7%</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">24.8%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">FTA/FGA</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">0.425</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">0.237</td> </tr> <tr class="tr_alt"> <td class="gz_factor_label">Points/Game</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">66.2</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">67.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">Avg Score Margin</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">-2.5</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">-13.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">SOS PR</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">103.1</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">103.4</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

Key Defensive Stats

<table class="tr_data" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><thead> <tr> <th class="gz_s_stat tr_al">Stat</th> <th class="gz_s_team_stat">FAU</th> <th class="gz_a_adv">adv</th> <th class="gz_s_team_stat">TROY</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">Def Efficiency</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">1.030</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">1.102</td> </tr> <tr class="tr_alt"> <td class="gz_factor_label">Opp Effective FG %</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">49.2%</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">54.0%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">Opp Turnover %</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">14.8%</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">14.0%</td> </tr> <tr class="tr_alt"> <td class="gz_factor_label">Def Rebound %</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">69.0%</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">71.5%</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">Opp FTA/FGA</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">0.424</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">0.363</td> </tr> <tr class="tr_alt"> <td class="gz_factor_label">Opp Points/Game</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">68.7</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">80.7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="gz_factor_label">Block %</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">8.6%</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">5.2%</td> </tr> <tr class="tr_alt"> <td class="gz_factor_label">Personal Foul %</td> <td class="gz_a_values gz_visitor">26.0%</td> <td class="gz_a_adv gz_a_adv_fade">
</td> <td class="gz_a_values">21.6%</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Woodson]

<code>PREDICTIONS FOR GAME: TROY VS. FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FROM PREDICTIVE EQUATIONS:
TROY WIN ODDS = 30.1%
TROY SCORE = 71.06 +/- 12.80
FLORIDA ATLANTIC SCORE = 77.43 +/- 13.36
TOTAL SCORE = 148.49 +/- 18.50
TROY - FLORIDA ATLANTIC = -6.36 +/- 12.23

FROM 12486 SIMILAR GAMES (OF 271102): TROY WIN ODDS = 29.6%

TEAM 1 SCORE TEAM 2 SCORE TOTAL SCORE DIFFERENCE DIFF. (OT=0)
PCT= PCT<= PCT= PCT<= PCT= PCT<= PCT= PCT<= PCT= PCT<=
59 0.023 0.173 66 0.026 0.196 136 0.018 0.304 -16 0.023 0.169 -16 0.023 0.169
60 0.026 0.199 67 0.026 0.222 137 0.020 0.324 -15 0.028 0.197 -15 0.028 0.197
61 0.030 0.229 68 0.030 0.252 138 0.020 0.344 -14 0.029 0.226 -14 0.029 0.226
62 0.031 0.260 69 0.031 0.283 139 0.020 0.363 -13 0.032 0.258 -13 0.032 0.258
63 0.032 0.293 70 0.032 0.315 140 0.022 0.385 -12 0.035 0.293 -12 0.034 0.292
64 0.035 0.327 71 0.034 0.349 141 0.022 0.407 -11 0.033 0.326 -11 0.032 0.324
65 0.032 0.359 72 0.037 0.386 142 0.018 0.425 -10 0.037 0.363 -10 0.036 0.360
66 0.033 0.392 73 0.037 0.423 143 0.022 0.447 -9 0.041 0.403 -9 0.039 0.399
67 0.035 0.427 74 0.039 0.462 144 0.019 0.466 -8 0.038 0.441 -8 0.036 0.435
68 0.038 0.465 75 0.035 0.497 145 0.022 0.488 -7 0.040 0.481 -7 0.037 0.471
69 0.036 0.501 76 0.037 0.533 146 0.021 0.509 -6 0.037 0.517 -6 0.033 0.505
70 0.034 0.535 77 0.040 0.573 147 0.023 0.532 -5 0.041 0.558 -5 0.036 0.541
71 0.040 0.575 78 0.037 0.610 148 0.020 0.552 -4 0.040 0.598 -4 0.035 0.576
72 0.035 0.610 79 0.035 0.646 149 0.021 0.573 -3 0.043 0.641 -3 0.037 0.613
73 0.034 0.644 80 0.033 0.679 150 0.022 0.595 -2 0.035 0.676 -2 0.029 0.643
74 0.028 0.672 81 0.031 0.710 151 0.019 0.614 -1 0.029 0.704 -1 0.024 0.666
75 0.029 0.702 82 0.029 0.739 152 0.018 0.632 0 0.000 0.704 0 0.063 0.730
76 0.029 0.731 83 0.026 0.765 153 0.019 0.651 1 0.024 0.728 1 0.020 0.750
77 0.025 0.756 84 0.024 0.789 154 0.018 0.669 2 0.029 0.758 2 0.025 0.775
78 0.025 0.781 85 0.026 0.815 155 0.022 0.691 3 0.032 0.789 3 0.027 0.802
79 0.026 0.807 86 0.023 0.838 156 0.017 0.708 4 0.026 0.815 4 0.023 0.825
16 PCT 58.88 16 PCT 65.02 16 PCT 127.76 16 PCT -15.96 16 PCT -15.96
50 PCT 69.46 50 PCT 75.59 50 PCT 146.06 50 PCT -5.97 50 PCT -5.64
84 PCT 81.11 84 PCT 86.65 84 PCT 165.59 84 PCT 5.66 84 PCT 5.32
MEAN 69.99 MEAN 75.76 MEAN 146.85 MEAN -5.58 MEAN -5.51
SDEV 11.22 SDEV 10.91 SDEV 19.27 SDEV 10.93 SDEV 10.88
MODE 71 MODE 77 MODE 147 MODE -3 MODE 0
</code></pre>

 

[Woodson]

Coming off the first half Florida Atlantic. Troy is avg close to 40 at home first half with FA avg just 33 on the road.

 

[Woodson]

Coming off the first half Florida Atlantic. Troy is avg close to 40 at home first half with FA avg just 33 on the road.

First half stats link paid off glad I did a little extra investigating.

Hit Florida Atlantic for +2 UNITS.

:toast:

 

[Woodson]

I've got Central Florida upsetting Miami on a neutral court.

WAGER: Central Florida +2

AMOUNT: 110/100

:toast: