THURSDAY TO MONDAY
- Thread starter THUNDER
- Start date
why would it drop i just pointed a trend to you the past 5 years that a team favored on the third game of a road trip is 4-0 ats the spread....that is way more close to what is going on here then your trend....your trend has nothing to do with a team that wins the 1st two games its just saying they lose one out of the three game so it is really irrelavent here
you have to win the 1st two in order to win three in a row so is would be way more relevant to look at teams who had won the 1st two and what they did on the 3rd game
It has occured 9 times in the past 10 years where a team has won the first two
4 teams wons the third game and 5 teams lost the 3rd game so we are looking at
4-5 teams going for the third straight win after winning the first two
In 9 of those games the road teams was a dog in all cases.....this is the first time in 10 years it has ever happened where the team going for three str8 is favored.
To me this is way more relevant then your trend:0074
This situation has not occured in the past 10 years:scared
you have to win the 1st two in order to win three in a row so is would be way more relevant to look at teams who had won the 1st two and what they did on the 3rd game
It has occured 9 times in the past 10 years where a team has won the first two
4 teams wons the third game and 5 teams lost the 3rd game so we are looking at
4-5 teams going for the third straight win after winning the first two
In 9 of those games the road teams was a dog in all cases.....this is the first time in 10 years it has ever happened where the team going for three str8 is favored.
To me this is way more relevant then your trend:0074
This situation has not occured in the past 10 years:scared
:facepalm:
THE TREND IM USING IS A TREND FIRST OF ALL AND IS EXACYLY WHAT IS GOING ON THE GIANTS IN 09 IS THE ONLY TEM OF YOUR 5 THAT FITS THIS SITUATION - BELIEVE ME WINNINN THE FIRST 2 AND GETTING UP FOR THE THIRD AS A FAV JUST DOESNT HAPPEN - NOW IF ATLANTA WAS COMING OFF A LOSS SO BE IT BUT THERE NOT-ALSO IN 09 THE CHIEFS WERE PATHETIC -SEATLE IS NOT -TAKE CARE AND GL-IM NOT A TREND GUY BUT THERE ARE A FEW SITUATIONS I PLAY- THIS IS LIKE HAVING A 20 UP AGAINT A 6 AT THE BLACKJACK TABLE I LIKE MY CHANCES-
ur thinking the Falcons will not be up for this game knowing if they beat the Hawks and Carolina they clinch homefield throughout the playoffs:scared
I guess that is enough talk we will have to wait till sunday to see who is right:0corn
I guess that is enough talk we will have to wait till sunday to see who is right:0corn
I AM SURE EVERY ONE OF THE 16 OUT OF 18 THAT DIDNT COVER THE NUMBER WERE MOTIVATED IN SOME WAY - AND OBVIOSLY IF THE FAVORED BY 4 ON THE ROAD THEY WERE ALL CONSIDERED THE BETTER TEAM -I COULD BE WAY OFF BASE BUT I LIKE MY CHANCES-GL
JTC, you're way too serious ...lighten up man..WGC and Thunder both have good reasons why they are taking the teams they are getting behind..Thunder I think you're one of the best and most consistent cappers on MJ (thanks for all you do!) but here I gotta agree with WGC in that I don't see Atlanta having any kind of a letdown...I like ATL 1st half and the over for the game..Seattle could get a back door cover late in the game because they are fighting for their playoff lives...STill think Spags and STL wins that division..
ATL 28-20 or 28-24.....good luck guys...
ATL 28-20 or 28-24.....good luck guys...
- Mar 19, 2006
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THUNDER..
any plans for Saints in the teasers..
Saints +1[+]7=8 very enticing in a wheel
even more enticing when they release the Pats - whatever in a 10' wheel thru SIA.
Seattle in that 10' wheel +17' ..:scared
any plans for Saints in the teasers..
Saints +1[+]7=8 very enticing in a wheel
even more enticing when they release the Pats - whatever in a 10' wheel thru SIA.
Seattle in that 10' wheel +17' ..:scared
I'm the biggest situational guy that I know...
...but at the risk of posting in a thread that I shouldn't...
...who have Seattle played...?
The only time they've gotten within 15 of anyone in their last 7 has been against potentially the 2 worst teams in the NFL...(Caro and Zona)
...4 games...4...againt teams who are not in the bottom 11 for passing yards...and yet still allow the 3rd most yards through the air.
Just awful.
Mis-match in every sense.
I sure hope Seattle have some pride...
...but at the risk of posting in a thread that I shouldn't...
...who have Seattle played...?
The only time they've gotten within 15 of anyone in their last 7 has been against potentially the 2 worst teams in the NFL...(Caro and Zona)
...4 games...4...againt teams who are not in the bottom 11 for passing yards...and yet still allow the 3rd most yards through the air.
Just awful.
Mis-match in every sense.
I sure hope Seattle have some pride...
MY TAKE ON THE DISCUSSION BETWEEN THUNDER AND WEST COAST.
MY THEORY HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN THE PROS IS TO TAKE THE BEST LOOKING BET EACH WEEK AND BET THE OTHER WAY. ATLANTA LOOKS TO BE A LOCK, SO I BET SEATTLE. LAUGH IF YALL WANT TO BUT I HAVE BEEN VERY SUCCESFUL WITH THIS THEORY.
VEGAS DOSENT LOSE VERY MUCH.
MY THEORY HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN THE PROS IS TO TAKE THE BEST LOOKING BET EACH WEEK AND BET THE OTHER WAY. ATLANTA LOOKS TO BE A LOCK, SO I BET SEATTLE. LAUGH IF YALL WANT TO BUT I HAVE BEEN VERY SUCCESFUL WITH THIS THEORY.
VEGAS DOSENT LOSE VERY MUCH.
My database will work on this particular stat and it says this has only occured 7 times since 1988:
away faves off 2 SU away wins since 9/4/88 4/3 SU and 4/3 ATS
1991 11/24 Buff -8.5 @NE 13-16 L
1992 12/06 KC -2.5 @ Oak 7-28 L
1997 12/14 GB -6.5 @ Carol 31-10 W
2001 1/28 Balt -3 @ NYG 34-7 W looks like playoff...( Super Bowl ) gm
2005 12/04 Jax -3 @ Cleve 20-14 W
2009 10/04 NYG-9.5 @ KC 27-16 W
2009 10/18 Phil -3.5 @ Ariz 25-32 L
Thats it.....all I can find
in 2001 on 12/23 I show Jax as a 3 point dog at Minn........and in 2005 the NYG and Phil no 3 gm road trips
away faves off 2 SU away wins since 9/4/88 4/3 SU and 4/3 ATS
1991 11/24 Buff -8.5 @NE 13-16 L
1992 12/06 KC -2.5 @ Oak 7-28 L
1997 12/14 GB -6.5 @ Carol 31-10 W
2001 1/28 Balt -3 @ NYG 34-7 W looks like playoff...( Super Bowl ) gm
2005 12/04 Jax -3 @ Cleve 20-14 W
2009 10/04 NYG-9.5 @ KC 27-16 W
2009 10/18 Phil -3.5 @ Ariz 25-32 L
Thats it.....all I can find
in 2001 on 12/23 I show Jax as a 3 point dog at Minn........and in 2005 the NYG and Phil no 3 gm road trips
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- Dec 31, 2006
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Your on the right side here THUNDER
Your on the right side here THUNDER
Lost in all the Atlanta Falcons hoopla is the fact that this game is every bit as important to the Seattle Seahawks, as they are currently tied for first place in the NFC West.
Atlanta has gone on the road this season and played Cleveland and was a three point favorite in that game, they played at St. Louis as a three and a half point favorite and at Carolina last week as a seven point favorite, all three of those teams I have ranked currently BELOW the Seahawks this year. So the question now becomes why is this line so high, especially with this game meaning so much to the Seattle Seahawks?
The reason is the Falcons bandwagon is overflowing right now but I am not as impressed with Atlanta as most people are. They had a very lucky come from behind win two weeks ago against TampaBay as they returned a fourth quarter kickoff in that game. They were out gained by over 100 yards against the Packers in the game before that game. Also many NFL handicappers will tell you that there are a few stats that they like to call ?lucky? stats such as turnovers, lack of injuries and third down conversions and the Falcons rank towards the top of the NFL in all of those areas. They have also won their fair share of close games this year and because of that I see this group as more of a 7-6/8-5 team from a statistical point of view then the 11-2 team that they are currently.
Another huge factor looming in this one is the same reason we bet against (and won) the St. Louis Rams last week, Atlanta is playing in their third straight game on the road and in the NFL this can be very tough for any team. Plus throw in next week's big home affair with the New Orleans Saints and I am not sure a team has had to play in a worse spot this year in the NFL then Atlanta does here.
Seattle comes in struggling but this is a much different team at home then it is on the road as they are a very solid 4-2 on the year in home games. The Seahawks have always held a huge edge playing at home as they have covered four of their last five home games when they were an underdog between three and a half and ten points.
The Seahawks were embarrassed last week in San Francisco but they have usually responded after those type situations as they have come back from a straight up loss to cover six of their next eight games either home or away.
Both these teams average 5.1 yards per play on offense and Atlanta is actually allowing .1 yards per play more on the defensive side of the ball. Bottom line this whole thing is about value. Six point road favorites in the NFL are mainly for when a very good too great team is playing a very poor team, much like Atlanta last week at Carolina. There is no way these two teams are separated by this many points in game at Seattle.
Also some of the best advice I could give someone who is trying to beat NFL is to bet against the "public" teams. This game shows over 80% of the betting public is going with Atlanta here in this game, another great reason to back Seattle in this contest. This is an extremely high percentage and the second highest public NFL pick this week.
Your on the right side here THUNDER
Lost in all the Atlanta Falcons hoopla is the fact that this game is every bit as important to the Seattle Seahawks, as they are currently tied for first place in the NFC West.
Atlanta has gone on the road this season and played Cleveland and was a three point favorite in that game, they played at St. Louis as a three and a half point favorite and at Carolina last week as a seven point favorite, all three of those teams I have ranked currently BELOW the Seahawks this year. So the question now becomes why is this line so high, especially with this game meaning so much to the Seattle Seahawks?
The reason is the Falcons bandwagon is overflowing right now but I am not as impressed with Atlanta as most people are. They had a very lucky come from behind win two weeks ago against TampaBay as they returned a fourth quarter kickoff in that game. They were out gained by over 100 yards against the Packers in the game before that game. Also many NFL handicappers will tell you that there are a few stats that they like to call ?lucky? stats such as turnovers, lack of injuries and third down conversions and the Falcons rank towards the top of the NFL in all of those areas. They have also won their fair share of close games this year and because of that I see this group as more of a 7-6/8-5 team from a statistical point of view then the 11-2 team that they are currently.
Another huge factor looming in this one is the same reason we bet against (and won) the St. Louis Rams last week, Atlanta is playing in their third straight game on the road and in the NFL this can be very tough for any team. Plus throw in next week's big home affair with the New Orleans Saints and I am not sure a team has had to play in a worse spot this year in the NFL then Atlanta does here.
Seattle comes in struggling but this is a much different team at home then it is on the road as they are a very solid 4-2 on the year in home games. The Seahawks have always held a huge edge playing at home as they have covered four of their last five home games when they were an underdog between three and a half and ten points.
The Seahawks were embarrassed last week in San Francisco but they have usually responded after those type situations as they have come back from a straight up loss to cover six of their next eight games either home or away.
Both these teams average 5.1 yards per play on offense and Atlanta is actually allowing .1 yards per play more on the defensive side of the ball. Bottom line this whole thing is about value. Six point road favorites in the NFL are mainly for when a very good too great team is playing a very poor team, much like Atlanta last week at Carolina. There is no way these two teams are separated by this many points in game at Seattle.
Also some of the best advice I could give someone who is trying to beat NFL is to bet against the "public" teams. This game shows over 80% of the betting public is going with Atlanta here in this game, another great reason to back Seattle in this contest. This is an extremely high percentage and the second highest public NFL pick this week.
