heres a write up I found on the net:toast:
*** INDEPENDENCE BOWL ***
GEORGIA TECH (6-6) VS. AIR FORCE (8-4)
Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA
Kickoff: 5:00 p.m. EDT Line: Air Force -2.5 O/U 56.5
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For the 14th straight season, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will take part in a bowl game, as they head to Shreveport LA, for a showdown with the Air Force Falcons in the Independence Bowl. Last season saw Paul Johnson's Yellow Jackets win the ACC and earn a BCS bowl bid. However, repeating as champions was not in the cards, as Tech finished at just 6-6 overall and 4-4 in-conference, thanks to a second half of the season that saw the team drop four of its last five encounters. This marks Georgia Tech's first appearance in the Independence Bowl. The Yellow Jackets are 22-16 all-time in postseason play, but the team hasn't won a bowl game since 2004, dropping five straight, including last year's 24-14 setback to Iowa in the Orange Bowl.
Troy Calhoun's Falcons finished the season 8-4 overall and 5-3 in Mountain West Conference action. It marked the fourth straight season that the service academy has posted eight wins or more. Air Force closed the year out strong with three straight victories, but couldn't ascend the MWC Mountain, with losses to both top-10 foes TCU (38-7) and Utah (28-23) to close out play in October. Air Force is making its third appearance in this event, winning the Independence Bowl in 1983 and 1984. The team is 9-10-1 all-time in bowl games and snapped a three-game bowl losing streak last season with a 47-20 win against Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl. This is the fourth time these two teams have met, but first since 1979. Georgia Tech has won all three prior meetings,
There is definitely no secret to how Air Force will attempt to move the chains. A one-dimensional offense is usually a bad thing, but the Falcons' ground attack is so productive, that it doesn't matter that opponents know its coming, they still can't stop it. Air Force finished second in the nation in rushing this year at a hefty 317.9 yards per game. The passing game plays a distant second fiddle at just 119.5 yards per game, but the team does come in averaging over 30 points per game. QB Tim Jefferson fuels the attack. He ranks second on the team in rushing this season with 769 yards, but has scored 15 of the team's 40 rushing TDs. Junior tailback Asher Clark is the top ground-gainer at 1,001 yards this season, with five TDs, with senior fullback Nathan Walker (453 yards, six TDs) adding to a deep backfield.
The top receiver on the team has just 17 catches on the year, but Jefferson hasn't been bad with his arm when the time comes to throw the ball. He has completed 52.2 percent of his throws, for 1,342 yards and 10 TDs. While the ground game has been Air Force's greatest strength, it has been a source of trouble for the defense this year. The Falcons are yielding a generous 195.1 yards per game rushing the football in 2010, on 4.8 yards per carry. That has to be a concern of coach Calhoun's with Georgia Tech's vaunted ground game up next. There haven't been a whole lot of sacks generated by this unit (13), but than again, foes like to run the ball against Air Force.
It is probably a good game-plan considering that Third-Team All-American CB Reggie Rembert (three INTs, 12 PBUs) patrols the secondary. Junior DB Jon Davis (team-high 89 tackles two INTs, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery) adds to the strong play in the defensive backfield. Junior LB Jordan Waiwaiole (88 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, two sacks, one INT) is joined in the middle by fellow junior Brady Amack (77 tackles) and senior Pat Hennessey (54 tackles, 8.0 TFLs), while senior DE Rick Ricketts (61 tackles, 9.0 TFLs) highlights the play up front.
The Yellow Jackets know a thing or two, or three about running the football. Paul Johnson's crew runs the ball just as much as Air Force does and actually is a tad more productive, ranking first in the country this season at 327.0 yards per game. It all revolves around talented QB Joshua Nesbitt, although the senior missed the last three and a half games of the regular season after breaking his right forearm against Virginia Tech. The most prolific rushing QB in ACC history, Nesbitt has yet to be cleared to play in this game. With 2,806 career rushing yards, Nesbitt's potential absence could be a huge factor. For the season, Nesbitt has amassed 737 yards and 10 TDs in nine games. Coach Johnson is still unclear on Nesbitt's status.
"I don't know if Joshua will be returning for the bowl, that is all in the doctor's hands. We will play him when they say that he is good to go. I think that he has had a great career and you always want to see guys finishing it on the field playing. Certainly he is a tough competitor and has made a lot of plays in the last three years for Georgia Tech. If he could get out there that would be an added bonus, but we are not going to put him at risk to see if we could get him out there for one more game or series. He is going to have to be cleared by the doctors. They have to say that he has no issues and is good to go."
The good news is that First-Team All-ACC tailback Anthony Allen is at full strength. Allen averaged 5.6 yards per carry in 2010, racking up 1,225 yards and six TDs. In all, Tech scored 30 TDs on the ground and another nine through the air. If Nesbitt is unable to suit up, Tevin Washington will get the nod under center, something coach Johnson feels comfortable with. "I think Tevin has done some positive things. He has played enough now where we expect him to be the starter. He is no longer the back-up. We can't say, 'ok you haven't played much'. His level and standard is getting higher. The more he plays the higher the expectation."
The Tech defense was porous at times this season and the results were less than flattering, with the team yielding 26.2 points per game on an average of 378.7 yards. Brad Jefferson led the way in the middle of the field, as the senior LB paced the team with 78 tackles. He was also responsible for 7.5 TFLs, 4.0 sacks and one fumble recovery. Defensive help comes in the form of sophomore LB Julian Burnett (76 tackles), senior CB Dominique Reese (61 tackles, 8.0 TFLs), junior safety Jerrard Tarrant (55 tackles, three INTs) and junior LB Steven Sylvester (55 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 3.0 sacks).
? PREGAME NOTES
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The Yellow Jackets arrive with the nation?s top-ranked rushing attack (327 YPG) while the Falcons aren?t far behind (318). Though the styles may be similar, the numbers concerning these two are not. For starters, ACC bowl dogs off a SU loss are an amazing 12-1 ATS while Mountain West bowlers off back-to-back ATS losses are 2-5 SU and ATS. Our database also notes that: sub .700 bowl dogs that won 11 or more games the previous season are 11-2 ATS against sub .800 opposition whereas bowl favorites off back-to-back SU wins but ATS losses are just 5-14 ATS.
While Tech?s current 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS run in bowl games is certainly a cause for concern, HC Paul Johnson?s terrific 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS record versus military opposition takes away some of the sting. Don?t be ashamed to grab this Johnson as a neutral or road dog, either, as he measures up with an admirable 25-10 ATS mark. And while military bowlers are a well prepared 22-9 ATS, we can offset that number with an earlier mentioned 6-6 bowl dog stat (18-9 ATS).
NOTE: Georgia Tech will be without a number of regulars for the 1st half of Monday?s game against Air Force. Last week four players, including leading receiver Stephen Hill and starting safety Mario Edwards, were ruled out for academic issues and then Anthony Egbuniwe and defensive backs Michael Peterson and Louis Young violated curfew and will miss at least the first half of the game.
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? TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--AIR FORCE is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 26.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--GEORGIA TECH is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=230 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was GEORGIA TECH 21.6, OPPONENT 29.9 - (Rating = 2*)
? TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--AIR FORCE is 39-23 UNDER (+13.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 27.6, OPPONENT 24.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--GEORGIA TECH is 43-24 UNDER (+16.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
The average score was GEORGIA TECH 18.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 3*)
? TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--AIR FORCE is 24-47 against the 1rst half line (-27.7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 14.6, OPPONENT 11.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--AIR FORCE is 10-25 against the 1rst half line (-17.5 Units) vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 9.7, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 3*)
? TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--AIR FORCE is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 14.9, OPPONENT 8.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--AIR FORCE is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rushing teams - averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was AIR FORCE 12.5, OPPONENT 12.2 - (Rating = 2*)
? HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 (AIR FORCE) - in a game involving two excellent rushing teams (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games.
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 29.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 18.2, Opponent 18.2 (Total first half points scored = 36.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4).
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