Saturday Bowls

[Smitty]

happy new year to all the madjackers. :toast:

Cotton Bowl

Texas Tech (-9) 1 unit. it has not been a good year for the red raiders, and the big 12 is very overrated. and this line is a few points higher than it should be, because of the 'home' field advantage. but i still think it's higher than it 'needs' to be. i have a feelng texas tech is going to roll in this one. keep in mind, they've been starting their second best qb all season, but it's not nearly as big a drop-off as there is when northwestern starts their second best qb, as they are doing because of persa's injury.

whle both teams went 7-5, northwestern is 3-9 ATS. tech isn't great, at 5-6-1, but 3-9 is pretty bad. and they finished by only covering one of their last 9 games.

lean to the under. the over just seems far too obvious.

 

[Smitty]

Capital One Bowl

Capital One Bowl

alabama (-10) 3 units. let me get this straight... the #16 team in the country, a team coming off blowing a huge lead at home to its archrival, is laying 10 points to the #9 team in the country? holy shit, what's up with that? seems insane, doesn't it? well, a couple things to consider -

alabama has a very young defense. if they were a bunch of seniors, i'm sure after that loss to auburn, they wouldn't care much about the capital one bowl to finish their careers. but those young guys have a lot to prove.

alabama likely isn't the only team in this game to be 'disapointed'. think about michigan state for a minute. they have a great season. they beat wisconsin and didn't get a chance to play ohio state. you don't think they feel like they should be in a bcs game, and not here in the capital one bowl?

a couple wins by the big 10 over the big 12, and suddenly the big 10 is good again? not hardly. and so much talk of the sec losing their first two bowl games. well, tennessee wasn't very good this year, and they had their game won. south carolina (mostly stephen garcia) was schizophrenic all year. bad sc showed up last night. you're not going to beat anybody turning the ball over like that. i can't see alabama doing anything similar today. roll tide.

 

[Smitty]

Gator Bowl

Gator Bowl

mississippi st (-4) 2 units. i only went back to 2002, but in that time frame, this is just mississippi state's second winning season and bowl appearance. this is a big deal for the bowldogs (sorry, couldn't resist. not that i tried very hard.). they won their only other bowl game in that stretch, in 2007. mullen is doing a very good job there, and they'll be fired up for this game. michigan, on the other hand... so many distractions around their coach. and now forcier is ineligible. nobody goes to michigan hoping to play in the gator bowl.

mississippi state has the 16th ranked rush offense in the country, averaging 216 yards/game. michigan's rush defense is 94th in the country, allowing 188 yards/game. relf's biggest problem as a qb is his accuracy, but that may not hurt him too badly against the 111th ranked pass defense in the country. once they settle into this game, mississippi state should be able to sustain one drive after another. i just hope they stick with the running game and grind out a convincing win. they'll only get into trouble if they get cute and try throwing the ball.

under (60) 1 unit.

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

the granddaddy of them all is the granddaddy of all of smitty's picks today.

tcu (-3) 5 units. i just lost the long write-up i had for this game and i don't feel like typing it all over again. i'll just hit a few highlights.

wisconsin allows 3.98 yards/carry on defense, which is 67th in the country. that deficiency has been masked because of the leads they've had, but it'll hurt them against tcu's 7th ranked rushing offense. and dalton is a veteran qb who can make throws we he needs to.

wisconsin's offensive explosion the last 3 games came against the 82nd, 92nd, and 94th ranked rush defenses. tcu is #3 in the country.

i expect tcu to slow down wisconsin's running game enough to force tolzien into pressure throws for the first time in a long time.

tcu is the best team wisconsin has faced all year. i don't know if the badgers are ready for this.

 

[Betone]

Happy New Year and GL Smitty:toast:

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

oklahoma (-17) 1 unit. just like with arizona the other night, this would be a bigger play if not for the stoops factor. it's amazing how bad the stoops brothers are at preparing their teams for big games.

i respect the hell out of what edsall has done at uconn. they run the ball and play solid defense. but they are severely outmatched in this game. it reminds me of a few years ago when notre dame played in a couple bcs games - uconn simply doesn't belong in this game. there is a reason this line is insanely high. even though stoops will be outcoached by a mile, i think the sooners just have way too much firepower. they'll get a lead, and uconn cannot play from behind.

 

[Smitty]

thanks, betone. GL to you, too.

 

[wox11]

GL ~ SMITTY!

NO DOGGIES TODAY? :shrug:

 

[Betone]

Only 5 fav's have covered this bowl season. Hoping that trends changes dramatically today:0008

 

[Smitty]

GL ~ SMITTY!

NO DOGGIES TODAY? :shrug:

thanks, wox, GL to you too.

i know, it's absolutely bizarre for me not to play any dogs. and the few times i eat a lot of chalk, i do poorly.

i guess the normal trend (dogs before new years and favs 1/1 and after) is in my favor. it's funny how quickly people seemed to forget that after favs covered the first couple bowl games.

 

[Betone]

BTW I am with you on almost all of these plays, So, GL to us:00hour