Wild Card Weekend

[hogman14]

2-1 Yesterday, finished the year pretty strong, and am pretty happy about that.

Playoff time though, and the record is 0-0.

WILD CARD WEEKEND:

Gotta me one of my favorite weekends of the year.

Some early thoughts:

2 home dogs. One will likely be by double digits.

Philly a 3 point home choice who seems to be reeling in the court of public opinion, and Indy, same spot seems to be gaining steam and getting healthier.

Already some major questions:

Can Philly bounce back (granted they had nothing to play for yesterday) and play strong football in the playoffs? They went from being considered a very dangerous team and strong candidate to come out of the NFC to the team everyone brushed over. Or, will they come out firing and avenge their week 1 loss to Green Bay? Their only big wins (against playoff teams) came against the Dirty Birds, and the Colts.

Are the Chiefs a paper tiger, or can they hang with Balmer? 1 win against a playoff team..ahem...Seattle. They only played Indy otherwise, so it's not their fault about the scheduling, and we have to wonder if they went completely untested, or if they actually have a half decent squad. Will they be able to outcoach Baltimore?

Seahawks grabbing DD points as a home puppy...Losing record yes. That bad...probably. What's interesting is that they were grabbing 7 a few weeks ago at home to Atlanta, and now they're playing a (on paper) lesser team, getting more. I understand it's the playoffs, and everything's amped up, but this line might scream stay away.

Does Indy have it in them to make a run? They are getting healthier on both sides of the ball, and Peyton will keep them in most games. Rex can certainly put together a great defensive plan. The question is how will Sanchez handle the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium?


Lotta homework to do fellas, mid terms start 430 on Saturday!

 

[hogman14]

Saints/Seahawks

Saints/Seahawks

Sunday's Weather: Partly Cloudy, 41 high.

Should not affect New Orleans.

 

[hogman14]

Trying to wrap my finger around this Seattle/New Orleans game.

Are they having the parade this week for the Seahawks, just for winning the NFC West?

Is 10.5 way too much, or not even close to enough points?

Are the Saints poised to make another run to the promised land?

Week 11.
Saints 34, Seahawks 19.

In that meeting, Brees lacked weapons Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, and Jeremy Shockey. Hasselbeck was at the helm for Seattle, and he threw for 366 yards. 2 Fumbles and four drives ending in field goals kept them from keeping pace.

The Saints may fly out on Thursday to get used to the time change, and what look to be decent conditions.

Saints are banged up a bit, with injuries to Colston, Thomas, and Shockey keeping them from playing against TB. During the game, TE Jimmy Graham, RB Chris Ivory, and FS Malcolm Jenkins all left with injuries.

Marshawn Lynch must hold on to the ball. The Seahawks cannot turn the ball over and expect to compete in this game.

Not sure who will be the starting QB for the Hags. Hasselbeck certainly is more skilled, but can Whitehurst be a good enough manager to get them through? I doubt it. Playoff games are won by playmakers, not managers.

Will Lofa Tatupu have his hands full with New Orleans' dynamic backfield, or will injuries hamper their game plan and turn them vanilla?

Seattle was picked apart my Matt Ryan, the only comparable quarterback they played against this year, who has quick reads, and accurate passes.

NOLA 0-2 ATS vs. NFC West on the road...

I know they didn't cover the Atlanta game, but I just go back, and wonder. They were up 7-0, which means nothing in regards to the final score, but power ranking wise, Atlanta is ahead of New Orleans, and the line's up 3.5 ticks. I'm trying to decipher this really. Did Vegas, even though Atlanta covered, wish they made the line 14? There were a lot of sharps on the Hags that week if I recall...

With the exception of Cleveland, the Saints didn't really have any real bad or ugly losses.

If Gregg Williams brings the house, and C Whitehurst is captain of the ship, it could be a long day.

Betting on Pete Carroll scares the bejesus out of me.

SEA 0-2 as dog of 7+
NO 2-3 as fave of 7+

Going with the Seahawks to stay within the 10.5. Look for Seattle to slow the tempo of the game on offense, and try to play physical on defense. I think New Orleans will react fine, as they have the pedigree to make a run. 27-17 Saints.

 

[hogman14]

FlyBoys/Ponies

FlyBoys/Ponies

30-17. Conference Championship. Rex has taken it personally.

Jets 6-2 on the road, 5-3 ATS.
Colts 6-2 home, 4-4 ATS.

Colts #1 passing, 29th Rushing. #4 points scored
Jets #4 rushing, 22 passing, 13th points scored.

Jets Defense 3rd against total yards, 6th vs. pass (yardage) and 3rd. vs. the run. 6th in points allowed.
Colts 20th total yards, 13th pass/25th rush.

Jets +9 takeaway differential, Colts -4.

Jets two road losses this year: One was an embarrassment on MNF to the Patriots, the other losing by 4 to Chicago, which wasn't as close. This was the week after they went into Pitt. and won outright.

Colts two home losses include a drubbing by DD against San Diego, followed by losing to the lowly Cowboys by 3.

Colts 6-7-1 ATS as Fave
Jets 3-0 ATS as Dog

Can Ferguson and the line hold up Indy's two speed ends, who are tailor made for Lucas Oil Stadium?

Will the Jets be able to get a pass rush? Last year, Revis was on Wayne all day, which allowed Garcon and Collie to each grab a TB as well as 274 combined yards on 18 catches.

Can the Colts stop Green and Tomlinson?

Can Sanchez go in and utilize the weapons he has? Certainly the Colts can be scored upon, but can Sanchez pick them apart?

Is Mark Sanchez 100%?

Bottom line: This Indy team isn't your older brother's team. Old age, and injuries got the best of them. Fortunately, they have the 2nd best QB in the league. They turned what looked to be a disappointing season and maybe missing the playoffs into a 3 seed, and another division title. The losses this year really stand out against me. I get losing in the division, but to SD and Dallas at home, that's a tough pill to swallow.

The Jets, on the other hand, have not looked like world beaters at times this year. Lot of "shoulda lost those games" scenarios. Lot of people up here in New England were calling them lucky. Well, they still won 11 games, and like they always say, they don't put a picture of the game in the Win column. They can win on the road, although their only true test was at Pitt, and losing to Chicago.

I think Manning pulls it out, but he's going to need all he's got. 21-20 Colts.

Jets +2.5 gets the call.

 

[hogman14]

Kansas City/Baltimore

Kansas City/Baltimore

Chiefs: Paper Tiger, or just lucky to have a weak schedule? Certainly the douching of the front office, and getting Pioli and Haley helped. We'll see what happens when they play a real formidable opponent. I think they'll be ready. The question is, can their personnel match up against Baltimore's? Even in 2001, the Patriots had Brady. In 2008, the Giants had the playmakers. It wasn't just the scheme and the coaching.

Baltimore: The "Team no one wants to play." +7 in takeaways. Destructive defense, Ed Reed playing as well as anyone. Certainly can win on the road, proven last year destroying New England in Foxboro.

Baltimore's stout defense is 5th against the rush, and this could prove costly for Jamaal Charles. Can Matt Cassell beat their corners? Call Baltimore's defense a 4-3 base, but it's disruptive, and can be a 3-4 in a hurry. Furthermore, they'll blitz out of any formation, and are the classic team that knows what everyone else on the defense is going to do. Therefore, they can audible in and out on the fly...some of it is show boating, and a lot of it is deception audibles, but they'll read offenses at the line as well as anyone in the game.

Baltimore's issue, is they can be outschemed. Not simple, but they fall victim against accurate passers who can make split second decisions. Losses to Big Ben, Brady, and Matt Ryan have proved this. Can Crennell and his defense dial up a plan that will keep them off the field on offense, and can Weis and Haley keep the peace long enough to exploit the few weaknesses Baltimore may have on defense?

Can Brandon Carr continue to produce at CB? Chiefs are +9 in takeaways. They lost 31-0 late in the year to the Chargers, and lost to the Colts 19-9. So, 1-2 vs. decent quarterbacks. As Bill Parcells says, "You are what your record says you are." Now they're all 0-0.

Tony Moeaki will need to have a monster game breaking free of the outside linebackers, with quick hitters to him. This will be the only real vulnerability for Baltimore. The Ravens will focus on Charles, and Moeaki will either have to roll out afterwards, run the TE screen.

Flacco can stay poised enough and has some good weapons to throw to. Couple that with Ray Rice running buck wild as of late, and they've become a good complement to the defense.


Bottom line:

Baltimore has been there before. The Chiefs are vastly improved, and will be a dangerous team in years to follow. I just think this year they benefited from a weak division, and weak out of division schedule. They're a solid team, but won't be able to hang with the Ravens.

Baltimore 35 Kansas City 20

 

[Skanoochies]

Interesting writeups. Thank you. You`ve got me thinking.:0074

 

[hogman14]

Philly/Green Bay

Philly/Green Bay

Interesting game here. My initial read is that Green Bay wins. And, pretty handily.

Week 1 Result: Green Bay 27, Philly 20.

Philly 3-5 ATS at home.
Thrashed Atlanta week 6 at home, also edged Indy after the BYE week by 2. I'm willing to throw out the last week's win against Dallas, but a BYE was put in their lap going up against the Vikings as a 14 point choice, a game which they lost outright by 10. Also, losing to GB and Washington at home doesn't instill a ton of confidence. Still, they won the always competitive NFC East, and they have the firepower to put the ball in the endzone.

Ranking #3 total points, #2 total yards, 9th passing/5th rushing. Defensive ranks 12th total yardage, 15th/14th passing/rushing respectively.

Green Bay comes in 4-4 ATS on the road. Big wins in New York, outlasting them 9-0, and they did hang tough against New England with a backup QB. Unexplainable are the losses at Detroit and Washington. Seem to have hit their stride by destroying the Giants week 16.

Ranked 9th overall offense, 5th passing, 24th rushing. Defense very impressive 5th total, 5th against the pass and 18th against the run. 2nd in points allowed. Under is 10-6 in GB games. Under is 7-1 on the road for GB.

Does Vick want to silence the critics? The bandwagon needed to get a new wheel after their loss to the Vikings on Monday Night Football.

How's Aaron's health? He seems to have shaken the concussion symptoms, but these are dangerous things to mess around with.

Who will win the coaching battle? I think most coaches would have won the Patriots game if they had any clock management savvy. That is a pretty big indictment for a team that has the pedigree to make a Super Bowl run.

Can Clay Matthews laterally stay with Vick. Will he have to? Vick has maintained a pocket presence that we have never seen before.

Can Raji get enough of a push to make Vick uncomfortable before he gets it to his speedy receivers? This will be crucial to Green Bay's success.

I look for this to be a very good football game. I am most likely going to lay off, as I don't see a particular edge in the line, and I don't think it's telling me much. If anything, it wants me to take GB, IMO...Plus it's tough to get that MNF game Philly puked up out of my head. I look for this to be a low scoring battle, if nothing else. It's not going to be a vanilla game plan on both sides, but GB will want to slow it down, and I think Philly looks to establish the run early, and take chances later.

Under 46.


Good Luck fellas. Hope all your tickets are winners.

 

[MrChristo]

I just think this year they benefited from a weak division, and weak out of division schedule.

Crazy weak!

10 of their 16 games were v. teams who are 20th or worse for points allowed...

...Titans are 26th in total D... (and not good)

...SF are 23rd v. the pass... (and rubbish)

...SL are 22nd v. the run...

...Cleveland 22nd in overall D, and only scored 9 offensive points anyway...

...leaving SD as the lone decent defense they've faced all seaon!!! :scared
[Scored 14 offensive points at home in week 1, and shut out on the road.]

 

[hogman14]

Hassellbeck gets the call and the line moves a half point...interesting. Still going with the Hags in this spot...

 

[hogman14]

Good Start.

Hope it continues tomorrow!

Leaning GB for a side. I think they win by a FG.

Definitely worth a shot.

Another day tomorrow fellas. Good luck.

 

[hogman14]

:toast:

4-0 posted. I'll take it.

Start studying!