Recent content by nakor

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    Value Futures (To win regional)

    All lines from Bet365. I estimated chance of reaching Final Four from the excellent team rankings page. MIDWEST Wisconsin 16/1 0.5% EAST Louisville 6/1 1% St. Joseph's 16/1 0.5% Manhattan 150/1 0.05% (Also qualified: Butler 80/1) SOUTH LSU 16/1 0.5% Colorado 40/1 0.25% (Also qualified: BYU...
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    Final Four picks thread

    Kentucky Arizona Maryland Wake Forest Kentucky to win it all
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    Maryland got a break

    Even though we got a 6 seed I love our draw, we can play with any team in the bracket and should be no worse than PK against Xavier. We did lose to Florida early in the year but it was <5 pt game IIRC. Of course UNCW and Xavier are no pushovers but I like out chances.
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    CalPoly/UtahSt in-game

    Getting it started early. I'm on Cal Poly +6 2%, Cal Poly +220 1%. Keep on riding that horse, brother.
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    Missouri lack of discipline

    This little bastard Clemons must think he is Pete freaking Maravich. Throwing up off-balance 25 footers in transition with maybe one teammate along... if Missouri loses he is the reason. Whatever happened to fundamental hoops?
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    Thanks to the BackDoorCrew(tm)

    Dallas - y'all played like shit all day, but managed to come back and cover the 7.5. Kudos. Detroit - BIG LOVE for my homies getting the big late TD, then thoughtfully missing the 2pter for OT to ensure the cover. I got your backs, Gs. One :thefinger to give out... Houston - wasn't...
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    Late Games - 2nd Half Thread

    let's make some $
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    Going for 2 is going to bone me in NO

    Way too much time left. Now they go for 2 twice and fail, instead of leading by 3 they lead by 1... of course I have NOR -1.5. Just one of the many games I'm losing today :mad:
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    Is Stokley playing for BAL?

    I have a prop bet involving him, but he must play for it to be action. The game play-by-play on NFL.com does not have him listed anywhere. Thanks!
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    Postseason Action

    Warning - I have taken the last few months off from baseball. ROUND 1 SERIES BETS Arizona -185 ----- 390/200 San Francisco +140 ----- 100/140 I feel that OAK and NYY will likely advance, but don't feel there's value in the lines (-280 and -200 respectively). Actually I was considering fading...
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    Monday night props

    (from Pinnacle) Lackey UNDER 20.5 outs recorded -110 for 2 units Lackey averages 18.86 outs per start. Granted, the Tigers aren't an offensive powerhouse, but still a worthwhile wager at -110. Will Randall Simon hit a home run? YES +800 for 1/4 unit True odds on this are about +670 by my...
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    TEX/NYY props for Monday

    Played the following at Pinnacle, using Stanford Wong's Poisson method. O. Hernandez under 20.5 outs +105 0.5u under 0.5 HR +140 1u* under 2 BB -120 0.5u K. Rogers under 20.5 outs +125 1u under 0.5 HR +150 1u under 3.5 K -115 1u under 2 BB +125 0.5u *Accidentally bet this twice, so I hope he...
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    LAD - pitching change (else huge overlay)

    Pinnacle has Los Angeles +1.5 -108 (was -105) with Nomo and Ortiz listed. The moneyline for the game is Los Angeles +111. Is there definitely going to be a P/C? Otherwise I'm going to pile on huge and hedge it tomorrow. I did send them a note regarding the line but have not heard back yet...
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    Quick help - possible arbitrage

    Pinnacle has Tunisia +500 = 16.7% Japan -190 = 52.6% Draw +265 = 27.4% --------------------------- Total = 96.7% This means that there is a bit over 3% value FOR THE BETTOR built into this line. I can't figure out how to arbitrage it though. I should be able to bet each way and guarantee a...
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    More WC

    My one long future (Argentina) crapped out... adding these. One unit each Japan 40/1 Mexico 25/1 Sweden 22/1 Spain 5/1 One-half unit Denmark 33/1 For tonight, playing Japan -0.5 -160 to win 2 units Poland DRAW +220 2 units Poland WIN +370 1 unit -- Nakor "Patriotism is the last refuge...
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