RV -- not sure 'scientific' is the way I'd describe the "systems" that I use to identify possible Ov/Uns for that day but I appreciate the compliment!
I've never heard of or seen ANY system that ALWAYS Wins. For ANY sport! If it existed, no shop would take a wager as the player would always win lol
But..
When you go thru and look, out of all the homestands/road trips by all the teams, when they play at least 6 games there's usually at least 1 Over, and at least 1 Under...
not always, but great majority of the time. 507 out of 520 (approx) so far this year!
With that in mind I looked for a simple way to win knowing this basic fact.
A "Martingale" or "Chase" system requires Deep Pockets and willingness to maybe lose 30+ units chasing on 1 team for 1 6gm series all just to win 1u... no thank you.
Originally, after team's 1st gm, If they went 'Over', then gm 2 (bet 1) start betting for the 'Under'.. no more.
Now I wait (usually) until it gets to (at Least) bet #3 (4th gm of the HS/RT), and often don't actually place $$ on it until it's a bet #4, #5, or #6
So Far this Season:
NL = 6 Losses <-- team either went all overs or all unders for a HS/RT
AL = 7 Losses (2 by Sea) <-- same as above
===========
13 Losses (out of approx 520 HS/RTs of 6gms or longer so far this year - 507 times it has Won)
So, I actually consider it very simple.
1) I create a sheet for every team.
--Homestands of 6gms or more down the Left side of page, I list date/tms they play/lil box for ea game.
--Road Trips of 6 gms or more down the Right side of page, listing same info w/dates/tms/box for ea gm (ov/u)
--It varies a little from team to team, but usually around 22 total HS/RTs of 6gms of more for all.
**This takes about 10+ hours by hand, there's probably a way some IT guy could do it in 10 mins lol
2) I divide them into AL/NL stacks and track the results every day. JUST the OV/U result. I don't care who wins.
3) I only spend about 10-15 mins/day on the paperwork. Usually twice that much (or more) on posting lol
4) After finding/listing the "System Plays" of 3s or higher for that day, I create the daily post, then go to Rotogrinders.com for MLB WEATHER -- I make notations re: wind/temps for ballparks that day/night.
When I see what I consider to be "strong" conditions for either Ov/Un, but it doesn't fit into the "3s or Higher" then I use it as an "OTHER" play. I'm 27-16 on those this year. I may play on a team/side occasionally.
5) Then I look at opening/current totals on scoresandodds.com and see SPs and if Line has moved and compare the # to my site.
6) Then I make my post on Madjack's... I used to look a lot more at SPs and matchups, but the site I used for that info has since shut down, and I don't think my wins/losses have changed much lol
I play Fantasy Baseball and have a pretty good knowledge of players from years of experience, so that may influence me on occasion.
7) I TRY TO BE SELECTIVE - which is a change from years past when I'd just play everything that qualified.
I don't bet the play just because it's reached a "Bet #3" or higher in the system, but I usually bet ALL that have reached a "Bet #5, or #6"... just my preference, but still not 100% every time.
8) I FLAT-BET... I don't chase an exact amount if I lose the day before on a team.
I bet what I'm comfortable with, based on my weekly figure, other factors like SPs/weather, Ouija Board lol
Yes, I explained it earlier this year (as I've done many times), This Next Section is copied from what I posted on 4/28:
Re: MLB Totals Systems:
I did the system for a few yrs, then stopped for a long time, then went back to it 2 yrs ago. It worked great 2 yrs ago (1st half more so than 2nd)... last year not.
Since MY pockets are far from deep, I recommended "flat betting" the same amount rather than chasing your losses.. as I stated, 2 yrs ago good, last yr not good.
Flat betting DEFINITELY reduced losses from last yrs bad season, but also limits winnings, but when system is "on", you still make lots of profit w/flat bets.
So I know it can work and has worked.
The "other way" I'm going to have wagers I haven't "named" yet... but when a team has like All 6 unders (or overs) on a home stand or road trip ( a LOSS for the reg system), then the next time they're bk in that same scenario, I will start betting it again to do whatever it failed to do the first time.
so that's 2 situations for those keeping up.
THIS year, I'm NOT into time consuming, lots of bets every day/week...
I'm just going to play something when it gets to at least bet #3.. then chase 4 and 5 if I feel like it. for the time being, I feel like it.
This will eliminate the majority of plays... waiting to play ONLY once a series has gotten to at least Bet #3 will reduce the actual number of bets by prob 75%.
Okay RV, that's all I got this morning...
Hope it makes sense as I haven't even finished my first cuppa!
I like the thought of combining mine w/your stronger "plays of the day"
LoB
