South Alabam +25.5 against my Auburn Tigers

Woodson

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Oct 23, 1999
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South Alabama is coming off a loss by the hands of Tulane 33-31.

Both teams emphasize downhill running and QB mobility, but Auburn’s defense might handle Tulane’s schemes better than South Alabama’s did, potentially leading to a 10-14 point edge if they played head-to-head hypothetically.


On the spread: +25.5 feels high for South Alabama, given how they nearly beat Tulane outright and Auburn’s secondary could get stressed by the Jaguars’ passing attack. Current lines have Auburn as a 25.5-point favorite with an O/U around 53.5-55.5, implying something like 40-14, but South Alabama’s offense (averaging solid yards per play against Tulane) could keep it within 20-24 if they avoid turnovers. Auburn can’t afford to overlook this one before tougher SEC games, and warnings are out there that the Jaguars are no pushover after pushing Tulane to the brink. If South Alabama replicates their Tulane performance and scores 24-28 points, covering +25.5 is realistic

Auburn hasn’t blown out anyone by that margin yet this season. I’m leaning towards the Jaguars covering, but it’s no lock; Auburn’s home-field energy at Jordan-Hare could lead to a rout if their run game dominates early.

I’ll be happy either way with an Auburn win. But I think the Auburn Tigers two wins allows for an undisciplined Auburn team to take the foot off the gas and breathe a sigh of relief to a decent start with a peak ahead to SEC play.

220/200 South Alabama +25.5

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