NFL
Weather Report
Friday, October 10
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 6
Sunday’s games
Jets vs
Broncos (–7.5) (@ London)
Jets (0-5)
Jets lost first five games, giving up 34-30-29-27-37 points.
Jets’ losses are by 2-20-2-6-15 points. (opponents over 5-0 team total)
Fields is 14-34 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 0-5 as a head coach.
In five games, Jets are minus-8 in turnovers.
Jets are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games overall.
Jets are 0-9-1 ATS last 10 games as an underdog.
Jets are 8-16-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-conference games.
Broncos (3-2)
Denver’s two losses were by total of four points.
Denver allowed 12-3-17 points in its wins, 28-23 in losses.
QB Nix is 13-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 182-116 as an NFL head coach, 21-19 with Denver.
Denver handed Eagles their first loss LW, 21-17.
Under Payton, Denver is 11-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 10-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
AFC West teams are 5-5 ATS in divisional games.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight series games.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.
Browns @
Steelers (–5.5)
Browns (1-4)
Browns don’t have a bye week after playing in London LW.
NFL teams with no bye after overseas games are 9-8 ATS
Rookie QB Gabriel lost his first NFL start last week.
Flacco got traded Tuesday; unsure if Sanders/Zappe is QB2
Stefanski is 42-50 as a head coach.
Browns scored 16-17-13-10-17 points in their five games.
Cleveland is minus-4 in turnovers.
Browns are 5-11 ATS last 15 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 8-17-1 ATS last 25 games as a road underdog.
Browns are 4-15 ATS in last 19 AFC North road games.
Steelers (3-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Road team won all four of their games.
Pittsburgh is +7 in turnovers this season.
QB Rodgers is 167-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 194-119-2 as an NFL head coach.
Tomlin won a Super Bowl, but it was in 2008.
Rodgers won a Super Bowl, but it was in 2010.
Pittsburgh is 14-4 ATS last 18 AFC North home games.
Steelers allowed 369+ total yards in all four games.
Last 8 years, Pittsburgh is 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS coming off a bye.
Home team won nine of last ten series games.
Browns are 0-5 SU/ATS last five visits to Pittsburgh.
Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Chargers (–4.5) @
Dolphins
Chargers (3-2)
Chargers lost last two games to NFC teams, 21-18/27-10
Bolts have injury issues on their offensive line.
QB Herbert is 44-42 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 63-31-1 as an NFL head coach.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Chargers are 12-10-2 ATS last 24 games vs NFC teams.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 6-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Chargers have converted 23-53 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins (1-4)
Miami has allowed 28.3 ppg in its 1-4 start.
Miami has had three games with 15 or fewer running plays.
Dolphins were minus-5 in turnovers/1st 3 games, +5 last 2 games.
QB Tagovailoa is 39-29 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 29-29 as a head coach.
Since 2020, Miami is 8-5 ATS as a home underdog.
Miami is 0-4 when it allows more than 21 points.
Miami is 9-6-1 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-8 ATS vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dolphins won six of last nine series games.
Chargers are 1-5 SU/ATS in last six visits to Miami.
Under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
Patriots (–3.5) @
Saints
Patriots (3-2)
Patriots scored 33-42-23 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
Patriots are 2-0 on road: 33-27 at Miami, 23-20 at Buffalo.
Letdown alert after their upset win at Buffalo last week.
QB Maye is 6-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 59-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots are 6-3-1 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite.
This is first time NE is road favorite since Week 13 of 2023
NE is 6-8-2 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 4-1.
Patriots are 2-8-1 ATS last 11 games vs NFC teams.
Saints (1-4)
Saints won 26-14 LW, despite scoring one TD, trying six FG’s.
Saints were +5 in turnovers LW (even in first four games)
Saints allowed 30.3 ppg in their four losses
New Orleans has been outscored 99-49 in first half of games.
Saints are 7-13 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
Kellen Moore is 1-4 as a head coach.
Rattler is 1-10 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 10-16-2 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
Saints are 6-10 ATS games last 16 games vs AFC teams.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split last four meetings.
This is Patriots’ first visit to Bourbon Street since 2017.
Over is 4-3 in last seven series games.
Rams (–7.5) @
Ravens
Rams (3-2)
Rams allowed 9-19-20 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.
Rams won 33-19 at Tennessee, lost 33-26 at Philly.
In LW’s loss, Rams didn’t score on last two red zone drives.
QB Stafford is 42-27 as the Rams’ starter (116-120-1 overall).
McVay is 91-59 as an NFL head coach.
Last two weeks, Rams threw ball for 360/378 yards.
Under McVay, Rams are 26-19-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Rams are 7-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
Rams are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-4 ATS
Ravens (1-3)
Ravens lost their last three games (minus-6 in turnovers)
QB Jackson (hamstring) is questionable; check status.
Ravens gave up 41-38-37-44 points in their four losses.
Ravens are giving up 408.8 yards/game.
Baltimore is 8-3 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.
QB Jackson is 74-32 as an NFL starter
Backup QB’s: Rush is 9-6, Huntley 5-10
John Harbaugh is 186-119 as an NFL head coach.
Since 2019, Baltimore is 6-2 ATS as a home underdog.
AFC North teams are 4-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Ravens won five of last six series games.
Rams lost three of last four visits to Baltimore.
Over is 4-3 in last seven meetings.
Cardinals @
Colts (-6.5)
Cardinals (2-3)
Cardinals lost last three games by total of five points.
Last week’s loss was one of worst collapses in NFL history.
Last four games, Cardinals converted 21-55 third down plays.
Murray is 38-49-1 as an NFL starter.
Gannon is 14-25 in 2+ years as a head coach.
LW was first time Cardinals gained more than 293 yards.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 8-3 ATS vs AFC teams.
Arizona is 14-10 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts (4-1)
Colts are 3-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40 points.
Indy scored 29+ points in all four of its wins.
QB Jones is 29-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 21-18 SU in 2+ years as a head coach
Under Steichen, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Steichen, Indy is 10-9 ATS in games coming off a win.
In three home games, Colts scored 11 TD’s on 26 drives.
Colts are +5 in turnovers this year.
AFC South teams are 9-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Colts are 3-2 SU in last five meetings.
This is Cardinals’ first visit to Indy since 2017.
Four of last five series games stayed under the total.
Seahawks @
Jaguars (-1.5)
Seahawks (3-2)
Seahawks won three of last four games, scoring 33 ppg.
Seattle is 2-0 on road (31-17 Steelers/23-20 Arizona)
Darnold is 38-41 as an NFL starter.
Seahawks are his 4th team the last four years.
MacDonald is 13-9 as a head coach.
Seattle held last four foes to 76.5 rushing yards/game.
Seattle is 11-3 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Seattle is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1
Seahawks are 3-5-3 ATS last 11 games vs AFC teams.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jaguars (4-1)
Jacksonville won last three games, by 7-5-3 points.
Jaguars allowed 300+ passing yards in 3 of last 4 games.
QB Lawrence is 27-40 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 4-1 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars have 14 takeaways, are already +8 in turnovers.
Jaguars are 6-4 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Jaguars are 14-12 ATS last 26 games coming off a win.
Jaguars are 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Home team won last six series games.
Seahawks lost 30-24/26-14 in last two visits to Jacksonville.
Five of last seven meetings went over the total.
Cowboys (–3.5) @
Panthers
Cowboys (2-2-1)
Last four weeks, Dallas allowed 439.5 yards/game.
Dallas scored 20-14 in its losses, 40-40-37 in win/tie/win.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
QB Prescott is 80-53-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 2-2-1 as a head coach.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as a road favorite.
Cowboys are 23-19 ATS last 42 games coming off a win.
Dallas is minus-3 in turnovers this season.
Last two games, Dallas scored 10 TD’s on 21 drives.
NFC East teams are 8-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Panthers (2-3)
Carolina is 2-0 at home (Atlanta 30-0/27-24 Miami)
Panthers allowed 24+ points in four of five games.
QB Young is 8-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 7-15 as a head coach.
Under Canales, Panthers are 6-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Canales, Carolina is 2-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Carolina ran ball for 239 yards in LW’s 27-24 win over Miami.
Last three games, Panthers converted 18-50 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Dallas won nine of last eleven series games.
Cowboys are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS last seven visits to Charlotte.
Over is 3-0 in last three series games.
Titans @
Raiders (-3.5)
Titans (1-4)
Tennessee is 1-4 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26 points.
Titans won 22-21 in Arizona LW, after trailing 21-6 with 11:00 left.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-4 as an NFL starter.
Callahan is 4-18 as an NFL head coach.
Titans switched play callers in Week 4.
Titans have four TD’s, 13 FG’s on their 57 drives.
Titans were outgained by 184-187-83-168-33 yards in their games.
Last two years, Tennessee was 0-8 ATS coming off a win.
Titans are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as an underdog.
AFC South teams are 9-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Raiders (1-4)
Raiders lost last three games, giving up 20-41-25-40 points.
Raiders lost first two home games, 20-9/25-24.
Last two games, Raiders were minus-5 in turnovers.
QB Geno Smith is 41-48 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 182-135-1 as an NFL head coach.
Opponents converted 20 of last 46 third down plays.
Las Vegas is favored for first time this season.
Last three years, Raiders are 10-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Las Vegas is 20-26-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a loss.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in divisional games.
Tennessee is 5-3 in last eight series games.
This is Titans’ first-ever visit to Las Vegas.
Favorites are 8-3 ATS in last 11 meetings.
49ers @
Buccaneers (-2.5)
49ers (4-1)
49ers’ five games were all decided by 5 or fewer points.
Last four games, SF ran ball for 77-73-83-74 yards.
Unclear whether Jones/Purdy will start at QB.
QB Purdy is 28-16 as an NFL starter; Jones is 23-30.
Shanahan is 82-67 as an NFL head coach
49ers gave up 378 passing yards in LW’s 26-23 road win.
Last two games, 49ers threw ball for 306/333 yards.
Since 2022, 49ers are 1-3 ATS as a road underdog.
49ers are 1-9 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
NFC West teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Buccaneers (4-1)
Tampa Bay’s five games were all decided by 6 or fewer points.
Buccaneers’ only loss was 31-25 at home to the Eagles.
Last three games, Tampa Bay gave up 27-31-35 points.
Mayfield is 56-57 as an NFL starter, 24-18 with the Bucs.
Bowles is 58-69 as a head coach, 32-28 with Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 5-4-1 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite.
Bucs’ four wins are all by 3 or fewer points.
Bucs allowed 341 passing yards in LW’s 38-35 win at Seattle.
Bucs are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
49ers are 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS in last four series games.
49ers won three of last four visits to Tampa.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Bengals @
Packers (-14.5)
Bengals (2-3)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 57 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-95 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-57-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is minus-5 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted nine of last 33 third down plays.
Bengals are 8-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (0-2 TY).
Bengals are 22-15-1 ATS last 38 coming off a loss.
AFC North teams are 4-11 ATS in divisional games.
Packers (2-1-1)
Green Bay won their two home games, 27-13/27-18.
Packers held three of four opponents under 250 total yards.
Packers tied last game 40-40 in Dallas, after leading 13-0.
QB Love is 21-18-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 72-39-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
Packers are 3-5 SU/ATS last eight post-bye games.
Green Bay scored 27+ points in three of its four games.
Since 2021, Packers are 5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in divisional games.
Packers won last two meetings, 25-22/27-24
Underdogs are 4-0-1 ATS last five series games.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Lions @
Chiefs (-2.5)
Lions (4-1)
Lions won last four games, scoring 40.3 points/game.
Detroit is +7 in turnovers in its last four games.
Lions held four of five opponents under 90 yards rushing.
QB Goff is 89-58-1 as an NFL starter, 47-31-1 with Detroit.
Campbell is 51-38-1 as an NFL head coach.
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Lions are 8-4 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Detroit is 16-7 ATS in last 23 games vs AFC teams
Detroit is 25-11 ATS last 36 games coming off a win.
Detroit is 16-6 ATS last 22 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chiefs (2-3)
Short week for Chiefs after Monday’s loss in Jacksonville.
Last three games, Kansas City is +5 in turnovers.
Last two games, Chiefs threw ball for 264/318 yards.
QB Mahomes is 108-29 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 303-166-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 17-22 ATS last 39 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs are 14-8 ATS last 22 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs converted 18 of last 39 third down plays.
AFC West teams are 6-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Lions won last meeting, 21-20 at Arrowhead, in 2023.
Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
