Interceptions bets - am I wrong??

[Real_Vision]

i’ll caveat this saying I rarely bet player props. Nba pts, pts/ reb / asst, nfl yards tds, etc,

BUT i fell in love with HR betting in 2025. And got good at it. Started with DK having a risk free HR bet all of April, and when it was “real” money no safety net, I put a lot of work into it and on average could bet 3-4 guys in one game and get at least 1-2 right (minus homer less gms). I had springer in gm 7 vs sea, bo bichette ws gm 7, will smith and muncy that game, etc.

Anyway— i went 4 for 5 last sunday (wk 10) and 5-6 wk 11 picking qbs to throw a pick.

Last week was baker, mahomes, flacco, goff, gino smith - missed brock purdy (some images for reference)

But the math is bad right? Mayfield has 3 int all year, that was 0.22 per game thru week 10, why is the over +110? ( i took it a second time late q2 hence the +145)

But its hard to not bet something you’re on fire picking. I got aaron rogers in 2 sep games, jax dart in denver, daniel jones 2x (the dudes got like 4 all yr?)

But the same math that helped me bet homers in mlb welll, tells me these prices are a joke.

Anyone else do these ever? Thoughts if so??

 

[Jord20]

I love the over .5 interception prop... I FEEL like I have done well, but never played it or tracked it enough to really know

 

[Real_Vision]

6 of the last 7, 10 of last 12 with josh allen

If i started posting now, mean reversion kicks in and im giving bad picks.

Im more likely to help folks if i’ve lost 4 of 6, lol.

i considered posting HR plays during mlb, but i hadnt been around a ton this Past season.

I know this - got baker 2x, daniel jones 2x, aaron Rodgers 2x, herbert 2x, gino smith like 4x, trev lawrnce 2x and a ton 1x

Two i avoid - jalen hurts and jordan love.

Won’t try a parlay because that’ll be the week i go 2 of 5 😛

 

[Real_Vision]

But mathematically, these pay TERRIBLY.

I’ll use mlb as an example.

The A’s were a great HR team..at least a handful of guys. 3 guys 30+, 2 other guys combined for 55.

But lets take rooker. 30 hr in 162 gms. Thats +530 per gane. He was usually +300 or +350.

But angels t ward had 36 in 157, thats +435. He was often +400 or higher.


Point is, jordan love has 3 in 10 gms, thats +250-+300 but his odds to throw one are rarely over +100.

Even jalen hurts 1 pick in 10 gms, but typically +110 - +135.

Meanwhile geno smith has 13 in 10 gms, i got him at -134