Interceptions bets - am I wrong??

[Real_Vision]

i’ll caveat this saying I rarely bet player props. Nba pts, pts/ reb / asst, nfl yards tds, etc,

BUT i fell in love with HR betting in 2025. And got good at it. Started with DK having a risk free HR bet all of April, and when it was “real” money no safety net, I put a lot of work into it and on average could bet 3-4 guys in one game and get at least 1-2 right (minus homer less gms). I had springer in gm 7 vs sea, bo bichette ws gm 7, will smith and muncy that game, etc.

Anyway— i went 4 for 5 last sunday (wk 10) and 5-6 wk 11 picking qbs to throw a pick.

Last week was baker, mahomes, flacco, goff, gino smith - missed brock purdy (some images for reference)

But the math is bad right? Mayfield has 3 int all year, that was 0.22 per game thru week 10, why is the over +110? ( i took it a second time late q2 hence the +145)

But its hard to not bet something you’re on fire picking. I got aaron rogers in 2 sep games, jax dart in denver, daniel jones 2x (the dudes got like 4 all yr?)

But the same math that helped me bet homers in mlb welll, tells me these prices are a joke.

Anyone else do these ever? Thoughts if so??

 

[Jord20]

I love the over .5 interception prop... I FEEL like I have done well, but never played it or tracked it enough to really know

 

[Real_Vision]

6 of the last 7, 10 of last 12 with josh allen

If i started posting now, mean reversion kicks in and im giving bad picks.

Im more likely to help folks if i’ve lost 4 of 6, lol.

i considered posting HR plays during mlb, but i hadnt been around a ton this Past season.

I know this - got baker 2x, daniel jones 2x, aaron Rodgers 2x, herbert 2x, gino smith like 4x, trev lawrnce 2x and a ton 1x

Two i avoid - jalen hurts and jordan love.

Won’t try a parlay because that’ll be the week i go 2 of 5 😛

 

[Real_Vision]

But mathematically, these pay TERRIBLY.

I’ll use mlb as an example.

The A’s were a great HR team..at least a handful of guys. 3 guys 30+, 2 other guys combined for 55.

But lets take rooker. 30 hr in 162 gms. Thats +530 per gane. He was usually +300 or +350.

But angels t ward had 36 in 157, thats +435. He was often +400 or higher.


Point is, jordan love has 3 in 10 gms, thats +250-+300 but his odds to throw one are rarely over +100.

Even jalen hurts 1 pick in 10 gms, but typically +110 - +135.

Meanwhile geno smith has 13 in 10 gms, i got him at -134

 

[Real_Vision]

Interception betting update.

Went 5-1 again this week (5 of 6 right)

1. starting with josh allen thursday,
2. then going big game hunting picking baker mayfield and
3. drake mae to throw one,
4 going UNDER 0.5 for cam ward against a great defense,
5. and of course trevor lawrence only b/c the price still doesnt reflect that for his career hes a 1.5 to 1 td / int qb.
6. Missed on jordan love. Who now has only 1 int in his last 6 games—that one that gave carolina an opening three weeks ago in the home loss. Interestingly enough, his 1st int this yr was HUGE too it cost them the browns game when they led 10-0 very late then 10-3 with 3 min left before the int gave clev the break they needed to tie the game.

Now 14-3 picking int’s last 3 weeks.

 

[T]

Outstanding! Thanks for posting. 💰