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Cnotes53

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Tuesday, December 16

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
TROY at JVST09:00 PMTROY +1.5*****
O 49.5*****
+500 +500
 

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CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP GAME !

12/16/2025................ 0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/13/2025..................2 - 3 - 0......................40.00%.......................- 6.50
12/06/2025..................9 - 2 - 0......................81.81%.......................+ 36.00
12/05/2025..................4 - 1 - 0......................66.66%.......................+ 9.00

TOTALS......................15 - 8 - 0......................65.21%........................+ 27.50
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Top seven teams in country in 2-point FG% defense:
38.7%— Michigan
39.9%— Duke
40.3%— North Carolina
40.6%— Cal-Irvine
42.4%— Syracuse/Seton Hall
42.6%— Indiana

Quote of the Day
“We’re all frustrated. Joe (Lacob) is frustrated. I’m frustrated. Steph and [Draymond Green], everybody’s frustrated. This is kind of how the league works. I hate when people are going to post private emails. Imagine if everyone’s emails were just publicly posted, how tough that would be to live our lives. Joe supports me 100 percent. I support him. We have a great connection. We’ve had so much continuity here. Our stable environment in our organization is one of our strengths.”
Steve Kerr, after the Warriors slipped to 13-14 this year

Wednesday’s quiz
When was the last time a team from the Big 10 Conference won the national championship in college basketball?

Tuesday’s quiz
In the movie Moneyball, Philip Seymour Hoffman played A’s manager Art Howe.

Monday’s quiz
First three picks in the 2024 NFL Draft:
Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, all QB’s.
Marvin Harrison Jr was the 4th player taken in the 2024 Draft.

***************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— Jacksonville State 17, Troy State 13
Trojans led 13-7 at halftime- their only TD was scored by the defense.
Troy in second half: 31 plays, 81 yards, two turnovers.
WR Johnson caught six passes for 101 yards for Jax State.
Troy State had won their last 79 games when they led after the third quarter.

— Knicks 124, Spurs 113
Knicks outscored San Antonio 35-19 in fourth quarter.
OG Anunoby scored 28 points for New York.
Knicks win the third annual NBA Cup.

— Teams that won the first two NBA Cup tournaments:
2023- Lakers finished 47-35, lost in first round of the real playoffs
2024- Bucks finished 48-34, lost in first round of the real playoffs

— St John’s 79, DePaul 66
Red Storm shot 10-22 on arc, DePaul 7-25
Blue Demons are 8-4 this year, 1-3 vs top 100 teams, but…….
…..since 2008, DePaul is 56-264 in Big East conference games.

— UConn 79, Butler 60
UConn lead 39-25 at halftime.
Huskies out-rebounded Butler, 47-29
UConn has won 7 in a row, is 11-1 (lost 71-67 to Arizona)

— Tennessee 83, Louisville 62
Louisville’s PG Brown didn’t play, and it showed.
Tennessee shot 62.9% inside the arc, snapped 3-game skid.
Louisville is 9-2, losing road games at Arkansas/Tennessee.

— Dayton 97, Florida State 69
Dayton was 40-47 on foul line; they shot 64.3% inside arc.
Flyers are forcing turnovers 24.4% of time (#3 in country)
Seminoles have lost five in a row, giving up 96.8 ppg.

— Clemson 68, South Carolina 61
Teams combined to shoot 9-40 on the arc.
Clemson is 9-3, 3-1 vs top 100 teams.
Gamecocks are 0-4 vs top 100 teams (all four losses by 7 or less points)

— Missouri State 63, Oral R0berts 62
Missouri State shot 57.7% inside the arc.
Oral Roberts shot 33.3% inside the arc.
Just second win for Bears, in their 7th game vs D-I teams. (5-5 overall)

— Former Alabama football coach Nick Saban is now a part-owner of the NHL’s Nashville Predators.

Famous birthdays, December 17th:
Ernie Hudson, 80
Eugene Levy, 79
Bill Pullman, 72
Bob Ojeda, 68
Albert King, 66
Claire Forlani, 54
Chase Utley, 47
Buddy Hield, 33
Daniel Vogelbach, 33
Caden Dana, 22

— Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (left elbow) is done for the year; he’s thrown for 1,262 yards in seven games this season, after leading Washington to a 12-5 record last year.

— Colts QB, 44-year old Philip Rivers has 10 kids (ten!!!); by playing this month, he’s extended his family’s NFL-paid for health insurance thru August 2031.

— When the NFL schedule came out last spring, wonder if the Dolphins howled about having to play a night game in Pittsburgh on December 14th?

— Texas Longhorns QB Arch Manning will be back in Austin next fall; he’s thrown for 2,553 yards this year for the 9-3 Longhorns, with 20 TD’s, 7 INTs.

— Minimum salary in major league baseball? $760,000.

— Major league players have a pension plan:
Full pensions comes with 10 years of service; if it isn’t claimed until age 62, it is worth $265,000 a year. Players can start collecting at age 45, but those payoffs would be lower.
Every 43 days spent on a big league roster earns a player credit.
The plan bumps up every year with a 1.8% cost of living increase.

— San Francisco Giants signed P Adrian Houser for two years, $22M. Houser was 8-5, 3.31 in 21 starts last year, for the White Sox/Rays.

— World Baseball Classic will happen in couple months; Dominican Republic has a very impressive lineup:
OF- Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis
1B- Vladimir Gurerrero
2B- Ketel Marte
SS- Geraldo Perdomo
3B- Jose Ramirez
C- Manier Diaz
DH- Junior Caminero
P- Sandy Alcantara
 

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Wednesday’s games
Cure Bowl
(@ Orlando)
Old Dominion vs South Florida (-3)
Old Dominion (9-3)
Old Dominion won its last five games, giving up 9.4 ppg.
In their losses, Monarchs gave up 309-223-311 rushing yards.
ODU has 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Monarchs have 52 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Joseph started eight games last year.


This year, Old Dominion is 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
This year, ODU is 2-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Monarchs are 1-2 SU in bowl games; they lost in OT two years ago.
Monarchs are 10-9 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Last five ODU games slayed under the total.


South Florida (9-3)
USF 48+ points in its last seven wins.
Bulls gave up 49-34-41 points in their losses.
Bulls have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
USF has 115 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Brown started five games last year.


This year, Bulls are 5-2 ATS as a favorite.
This year, USF is 2-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
USF won four of last five bowl games, with two OT wins.
Bulls ran ball for 200+ yards in seven of last eight games.
Over is 6-3 in their last nine I-A games.


These teams haven’t met in the last five years.
Last nine years, underdogs are 8-1 ATS in this bowl.
This year, C-USA teams are 2-0 vs AAC opponents.


68 Ventures Bowl (@ Mobile, AL)
Louisiana (-3) vs Delaware
Louisiana (6-6)
Louisiana won its last four games, after a 2-6 start.
Cajuns are 0-5 when they score less than 30 points.
Louisiana is 4-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
ULL has 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Cajuns have 63 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Wooldridge had 8 starts before this year.


This year, Louisiana is 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
This year, Louisiana is 4-3 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Cajuns lost their last three bowl games, giving up 23-34-34 points.
Over is 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Sun Belt favorites are 5-8 ATS in non-conference games.


Delaware (6-6)
This is Delaware’s first year as a I-A team.
Blue Hens are 3-5 SU in last eight games.
Delaware is 3-2 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Delaware has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
Blue Hens have 77 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Minicucci has thrown for 3,495 yards (22 TD’s, 7 TD’s)


This year, Delaware is 3-3 ATS as an underdog.
This year, Delaware is 4-4 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Since 2020, Blue Hens were 4-3 SU in I-AA playoff games.
C-USA underdogs are 14-11 ATS in non-conference games.


Last five years, favorites are 4-1 ATS in this bowl.
Since 2015, Sun Belt teams are 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS in this bowl.
This year, Sun Belt teams are 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS vs C-USA teams.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
 

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Wednesday, December 17

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ODU at USF05:00 PMODU +4.0*****
U 53.5*****
+500 +500
ULL at DEL08:30 PMDEL +1.5*****
U 60.5*****
+500 +500
 

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CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP GAME !

12/17/2025.................4 - 0 - 0.....................100.00%.....................+ 20.00
12/16/2025................ 0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%.......................- 11.00
12/13/2025..................2 - 3 - 0......................40.00%.......................- 6.50
12/06/2025..................9 - 2 - 0......................81.81%.......................+ 36.00
12/05/2025..................4 - 1 - 0......................66.66%.......................+ 9.00

TOTALS......................19 - 8 - 0......................70.37%.......................+ 47.50
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
Week 16 NFL spreads:
— Rams @ Seattle (-1.5)
— Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington
— Packers @ Chicago (-1.5)
— Jets @ New Orleans (-4.5)
— Bills (-10.5) @ Cleveland
— Chiefs (-3) @ Tennessee

Quote of the Day
“I want to meet all of them. Every coach who gets the opportunity to come here, I want to have conversations throughout the process with them. I’m going to be here for that whole time.”
Titans rookie QB Cam Ward, talking about the team’s coaching search

Thursday’s quiz
Which major league baseball team drafted Tom Brady as a catcher?

Wednesday’s quiz
2000 was the last time a team from the Big 10 Conference won the national championship in college basketball, when Michigan State won

Tuesday’s quiz
In the movie Moneyball, Philip Seymour Hoffman played A’s manager Art Howe.

******************************************

Thursday’s Den: NFL trends, and NCAA Tournament trends……..

Was wondering if there are any trends that could identify teams that will win March Madness this year, so I broke down the last 13 teams that won the national title.

— 10 of the last 13 national champs were #1 seeds:
Exceptions:
2014 UConn was a 7-seed
2016 Villanova was a 2-seed
2023 UConn was a 4-seed

— National champs come from the elite leagues:
5- Big East
3- ACC
2- SEC
2- Big X
1- AAC (UConn in 2014)
0- Big 18

— National champs come from big leagues; they generally play cheesy non-conference schedules. Five of last six national champs played a non-conference slate outside the top 200.

— Making shots seems like a big deal; 10 of the last 13 national champs were in the top 40 in eFG% (eFG% is FG%, only 3-pointers count as 1.5 baskets made).
Defense seems important; 9 of the last 13 national champs were in the top 50 in eFG% defense.

— 9 of the last 13 national champs were in the top 40 in offensive rebounding %age.

— The last 13 national champs all won the first game in their conference tournament; however, 5 of the 13 national champs went WL in their conference tournament.
5 of the also 13 national champs won their conference tournament.

— Only 3 of the last 13 national champs played a tempo in top 100; 6 of 13 were outside top 200

Stats that don’t seem to matter much:
None of the last 11 national champs were in the top 100 in % of points scored on foul line; there are fewer fouls called in the NCAA’s, you have to be able to play through contact.

— Only 2 of the last 13 national champs were in the top 200 in bench minutes; last one was North Carolina in 2017. TV timeouts are longer in NCAA’s, fewer fouls are cools, making depth less important.

— We’ll tuck this away until March, then identify teams we think fit the bill of a champ.

Famous birthdays, December 18th:
Steven Spielberg, 79
Brad Pitt, 62
Charles Oakley, 62
Don Beebe, 61
Rachel Griffiths, 58
Christina Aguilera, 45
Chris Carter, 39
Byron Buxton, 32
Ronald Acuna, 28
Brandon Marsh, 28
Joey Cantillo, 26
Jayden Daniels, 25

— NFL divisional trends:

AFC East

Non-divisional underdogs 12-8 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 9-7 ATS

AFC North
Non-divisional underdogs 8-15 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 7-10 ATS

AFC South
Non-divisional underdogs 15-8 ATS
Non-divisional favorites 7-5 ATS

AFC West
Non-divisional underdogs 8-6 ATS
Non-divisional road favorites 1-9 ATS

NFC East
Home teams 5-2 ATS divisional games
Non-divisional underdogs 8-12 ATS

NFC North
Non-divisional home favorites 11-5 ATS
Non-divisional underdogs 5-8 ATS

NFC South
Underdogs 8-1 ATS divisional games
Non-divisional favorites 3-7 ATS

NFC West
Non-divisional favorites 19-8 ATS
Divisional home underdogs 0-4 ATS
 

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Thursday’s game
Xbox Bowl
(@ Frisco, TX)
Missouri State (-1.5) vs Arkansas State
Missouri State (7-5)
This is Missouri State’s first year as a I-A team.
Bears lost their last two games, 41-34/42-30
Red Wolves have 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Red Wolves have 67 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Clark has 28 career starts.


Missouri State is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
Bears are 5-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
Missouri State is 5-2 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Bears allowed 500-475 TY in their last two games.
Bears’ last three games went over the total.
C-USA non-conference favorites are 4-1 ATS this year.


Arkansas State (6-6)
Red Wolves won five of their last seven games.
ASU is 2-5 when they score less than 30 points.
Last five games, ASU is minus-9 in turnovers.
Red Wolves have 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Red Wolves have 33 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Raynor has 3,076 PY (16 TDs, 11 INTs)


Arkansas State is 3-4 this year in games decided by 8 or less points.
Arkansas State is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
Under Jones, Redhawks are 25-20 ATS as an underdog.
Redhawks are 4-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
Under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Red Wolves lost three of their last five bowl games.
Sun Belt non-conference underdogs are 11-18 ATS


This is the first-ever Xbox Bowl; it replaces the Bahamas Bowl
This year, Sun Belt teams are 7-4 SU/6-5 ATS vs C-USA opponents.
These teams haven’t met in the last five years.
 

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Thursday, December 18

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
MOSU at ARST09:00 PMMOSU +1.5*****
U 54.5*****
+500 +500
 

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CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP GAME !

12/18/2025.................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%......................- 11.00
12/17/2025.................4 - 0 - 0.....................100.00%.....................+ 20.00
12/16/2025................ 0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%......................- 11.00
12/13/2025..................2 - 3 - 0......................40.00%.....................- 6.50
12/06/2025..................9 - 2 - 0......................81.81%.....................+ 36.00
12/05/2025..................4 - 1 - 0......................66.66%.....................+ 9.00

TOTALS.....................19 - 10 - 0.....................65.51%.....................+ 36.50
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
2025 luxury taxes in baseball, 2025:
$168,657,856— Dodgers
$86,194,127— Mets
$60,205,499— Bronx
$48,112,313— Phillies
$10,000,000— Padres, Blue Jays
$1,105,612— Astros

Quote of the Day
“We have a 3.0 GPA, that’s wonderful…..if we were running a daycare. We run a competitive basketball program. We’ve got a lot of casual personalities on this team.”
NC State basketball coach Will Wade

Friday’s quiz
What southern city hosts the Independence Bowl every year?

Thursday’s quiz
In 1995, Montreal Expos drafted Tom Brady as a catcher.

Wednesday’s quiz
2000 was the last time a team from the Big 10 Conference won the national championship in college basketball, when Michigan State won.

*********************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….

— Seattle 38, Rams 37 OT
Rams led 30-14 with 9:00 left in the game.
Seahawks ran a punt back 58 yards for a TD to start the comeback.
Seattle went 3-for-3 on two-point conversions.
Smith-Njigba caught 8 passes for 96 yards, all after halftime.
Stafford threw for 457 yards, three TD’s.
Nucua caught 12 passes for 225 yards, two TD’s.
Rams outgained Seattle 581-415.
Seattle takes over first place in the NFC West.

— Miami Dolphins are giving rookie QB Quinn Ewers his first career start this week, at home against Cincinnati; they’re stuck with Tua Tagovailoa for now— his upcoming cap hits:
2025- $39.1M
2026- $56.4M
2027- $53.4M
2028- $65.8M
Dolphins’ front office has a major headache here.

— San Diego Padres signed P Michael King for three years, $75M; he was 5-3, 3.44 in 15 starts last year, after being 13-9, 2.95 in 30 starts in 2024.
— President, general manager, manager of the Washington Nationals are all 35 or younger.

— World Series shares were announced; a full share got the Dodgers players/coaches $484,748 apiece. 82 full shares, 12.5 partial shares were given out.

Famous birthdays, December 19th:
Tim Reid, 81
Elaine Joyce, 80
Kevin McHale, 68
Jennifer Beals, 62
Arvydas Sabonis, 61
Randall McDaniel, 61
Joe Slusarski, 59
Tom Gugliotta, 56
Alyssa Milano, 53
Warren Sapp, 53
Jake Plummer, 51
Rafael Soriano, 46

— Arkansas State 34, Missouri State 28
Arkansas State led this game 24-7 at halftime.
Missouri State was 8-15 on third down, Ark State 2-11.
Ark State QB Raynor threw for 288 yards, three TD’s.
Both teams had over 100 yards in penalties.

— Missouri QB Beau Pribula is going in the transfer portal, will skip Mizzou’s bowl game against Virginia in the Gator Bowl. In 10 games, Pribula completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,941 yards with 11 TD’s, 9 INT’s. He also ran for 297 yards with six TDs. Pribula spent his first two years in college at Penn State

— TCU QB Josh Hoover is going in the transfer portal, will skip TCU’s bowl game against USC. Hoover has been TCU’s starting quarterback since midway through the 2023 season, throwing for 439 yards and four TD’s in his first start against BYU. In 2024, he set a school record with 3,949 passing yards. He’s not going pro this year; he’ll transfer somewhere, make a lot of $$$ in his last year of college eligibility.

— Texas Longhorns fired their defensive coordinator, hired Will Muschamp to replace him; Muschamp was the Texas defensive coordinator from 2008-10. He was 56-51 as a head coach at Florida, South Carolina.

Movie of the Day: Margin Call (2011)— This movie is pretty intense, about people at an investment bank over a 24-hour period during the early stages of the 2008 financial crisis.
Kevin Spacey, Demi Moore, Jeremy Irons, Mary McDonnell, Stanley Tucci— good cast.

— Bradley 108, Indiana State 99, 3OTs
Bradley led by 13 early on, trailed by 4 in the third OT.
Indiana State was 30-43 on foul line, Bradley 17-27.
Bradley’s bench outscored the Sycamores’ bench, 47-19

— Illinois State 75, Southern Illinois 68
Salukis led 35-30 at halftime.
Illinois State shot 68.8% inside the arc.
Redbirds are 9-3, shooting 57.3% inside the arc (#54)

— Murray State 81, Drake 72
Racers were 26-31 on foul line, Drake 17-23.
Murray won its last five games, scoring 91.4 ppg.
Racers are rebounding 37.9% of their missed shots (#39)

— Southern Miss 62, Louisiana 54
Southern Miss was 26-39 on foul line, Ragin’ Cajuns 10-13.
Golden Eagles won despite shooting 31.3% from the floor.
Louisiana is 1-11, has lost its last ten games.

— Long Beach State 81, Pepperdine 78
Pepperdine shot 74.2% inside the arc and still lost.
Waves committed 18 turnovers, Long Beach had only nine.
Sixth loss in last seven games for Pepperdine.
 

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Friday’s games
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Kennesaw State
vs Western Michigan (-3)
Kennesaw State (10-3)
Kennesaw won 10 of last 11 games (loss was to Jax State)
Last three games, Owls allowed 35-34-42 points.
Kennesaw has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
Owls have 92 starts back on offensive line, including 10 transfers.
Soph QB Odom started 8 games LY, at I-AA Wofford.


Owls are 6-1 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Kennesaw is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
Owls are 7-1 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Kennesaw is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
C-USA underdogs are 14-11 ATS in non-conference games.
This is Kennesaw State’s first-ever bowl game/


Western Michigan (9-4)
WMU won nine of its last ten games, after an 0-3 start.
Broncos are 0-4 when they allow more than 21 points.
Broncos have 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
WMU has 23 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Lowry has 1,920 PY (6 TD’s, 3 INT’s).


WMU is 6-1-1 ATS as a favorite this year.
Broncos are 5-2 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Last four games, WMU ran ball for 283.4 yards/game.
Over is 4-2 in WMU’s last six games.
Broncos lost four of their last five bowls.
MAC favorites are 1-1 ATS in non-conference games.


Favorites are 4-1 ATS in the Myrtle Beach Bowl
MAC teams are 2-0 SU/ATS vs C-USA teams this year.


Gasparilla Bowl (@ Tampa)
Memphis vs NC State (-3.5)
Memphis (8-4)
Tigers lost their last three games; after an 8-1 start.
Memphis coach Silverfield bolted to Arkansas; they have an interim coach
Memphis gave up 31-38-31-28 points in their losses.
Memphis has 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Tigers have 96 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Lewis started 12 games at Nevada LY.


Memphis is 7-1 when it scores 32+ points.
Tigers are 2-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
This year, Memphis is 3-3 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
Memphis allowed 450+ yards in four of last six games.
Over is 4-1 in last five Memphis games.
Memphis won its last four bowl games, scoring 35.3 ppg.
AAC underdogs are 13-12 ATS in non-conference games.


NC State (7-5)
NC State won three of last four games, after a 4-4 start.
Wolfpack gave up 485+ yards in four of last six games.
NC State has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wolfpack has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Bailey started 9 games LY.


This year, Wolfpack is 3-2 ATS as a favorite.
State is 5-3 ATS in games with a single digit spread.
State allowed 36+ points in four of their five losses.
Over is 6-4 in their last ten I-A games.
Wolfpack lost their last four bowls, three of them by 5 or fewer points.
ACC favorites are 12-18 ATS in non-conference games.


ACC teams are 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS vs AAC opponents this year.
Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven Gasparilla Bowls.


College football playoff
Alabama
@ Oklahoma (-1.5)
Alabama (10-3)
Alabama is 4-1 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Alabama was held to 17-21-7 points in its three losses.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Simpson threw 25 passes last year.


Alabama is 1-3 when it allows more than 21 points.
Under DeBoer, Alabama is 2-1 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, DeBoer is 6-2 as an underdog.
Crimson Tide lost three of its last four bowl games.
Alabama is 2-2-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
Nine of last ten Alabama games stayed under the total.


Oklahoma (10-2)
Oklahoma won its last four games, giving up 16.8 ppg.
Oklahoma was outgained 406-221 in their win at Alabama last month.
Oklahoma has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Matter started 12 games for Wazzu last year.


Oklahoma is 10-5 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
TY, Oklahoma is 5-2 ATS in games with single digit spread.
Sooners are 10-2 despite being minus-2 in turnovers.
Under Venables, Sooners are 12-17-1 ATS coming off a win.
Under is 9-2 in Oklahoma’s I-A games.


Oklahoma (+6.5) won 23-21 at Alabama in November.
Sooners won five of last six series games.
Oklahoma was +13 in turnovers in those games.
Alabama (-14) lost 24-3 in Norman last year.
Home favorites are 22-19 ATS in SEC games.
LY, Favorites were 4-0 ATS in first round playoff games.
 

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Friday, December 19

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
MEM at NCST02:30 PMNCST -3.5*****
O 57.5*****
+500 +500
ALA at OKLA08:00 PMOKLA -1.5*****
U 40.5*****
+500 +500
 
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Cnotes53

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CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP GAME !

12/19/2025.................1 - 3 - 0......................25.00%......................- 11.50
12/18/2025.................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%......................- 11.00
12/17/2025.................4 - 0 - 0.....................100.00%.....................+ 20.00
12/16/2025................ 0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%......................- 11.00
12/13/2025..................2 - 3 - 0......................40.00%.....................- 6.50
12/06/2025..................9 - 2 - 0......................81.81%.....................+ 36.00
12/05/2025..................4 - 1 - 0......................66.66%.....................+ 9.00


TOTALS.....................20 - 13 - 0.....................60.60%.....................+ 25.00
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Week 16 NFL spreads:
— Jaguars @ Denver (-3.5)
— Falcons (-3) @ Arizona
— Raiders @ Houston (-14.5)
— Steelers @ Detroit (-7)
— Patriots @ Baltimore (-3)
— 49ers (-5.5) @ Indianapolis

Quote of the Day
“My guess is most of the teams will not allow their pitchers to do it. That would be my guess.”
Reds manager Terry Francona, on whether teams will let their pitchers use the new challenge system when the season starts. Only pitchers, catchers, hitters can challenge pitches.

Saturday’s quiz
On the old TV show Seinfeld, what well-known actor played George Costanza’s father?

Friday’s quiz
Shreveport, LA hosts the Independence Bowl every year.

Thursday’s quiz
In 1995, Montreal Expos drafted Tom Brady as a catcher.

*****************************************

Saturday’s Den: Random notes on a very windy night…….

— Alabama 34, Oklahoma 24
Oklahoma led 17-0 early in the second quarter.
Alabama tied game on a pick-6 1:18 before halftime.
Sooners QB Matter threw for 307 yards, but the pick-6 was costly.
Crimson Tide advances to play Indiana in the next round of the playoffs.

— NC State 31, Memphis 7
Wolfpack’s first four drives: 16 plays, 144 yards, 21 points.
NC State led 31-7 at the half; rest of game was scoreless.
Memphis lost its last four games, after an 8-1 start.
Favorites are 6-2 ATS in last eight Gasparilla Bowls.

— Western Michigan 41, Kennesaw State 6
WMU scored on a 65-yard TD run on first play of theme.
Broncos ran ball 43 times for 303 yards (7 yards/carry)
Jalen Buckley ran ball for 174 yards and a TD.
Kershawn Fisher scored on a 47-yard fumble return.

— There was a three-way trade in baseball Friday:
Pirates acquired 2B Brandon Lowe, OF Jake Mangum, P Mason Montgomery
Astros acquired P Mike Burrows
Rays acquired OF Jacob Melton, P Anderson Brito

— Baltimore Orioles acquired P Shane Baz from division rival Tampa Bay; Orioles sent prospects to the Rays:
OF Slater de Brun
C Caden Borine
OF Austin Over
P Michael Fornet
Baz isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season.

— NBA All-Star Game this year is going to be US vs the World; they’re trying to make the game more competitive. Hopefully this won’t make the game too competitive, but it should be more fun to watch this year.

— Baylor, Memphis, Miami are three college basketball teams who have totally new rosters this season. Baylor is 8-2, Memphis 4-6 (but they did upset Baylor), Miami is 10-2, albeit vs schedule #313.

Famous birthdays, December 20th:
Dick Wolf, 79 (producer of Law and Order)
Cecil Cooper, 76
Jenny Agutter, 73
Tom Newberry, 63
Rich Gannon, 60
James Shields, 44
David Wright, 43
Jonah Hill, 42
De’Aaron Fox, 28
The great actor John Hillerman was born on this day in 1932.

— Villanova 76, Wisconsin 66, OT
Villanova led by 15 early in second half.
Wisconsin committed 16 turnovers, Wildcats only 8.
Villanova is 9-2, 1-2 vs top 100 teams.

— San Diego 82, Cal-San Diego 80
Toreros banked in a 3-pointer with 0:00.5 left for the win.
Toreros were a 13-point underdog.
San Diego led by 15 with 13:49 left in the game.
Cal-San Diego shot 66.7% inside arc, only 8-26 on the arc.

— Seton Hall 72, Providence 67
11-1 Seton Hall wins Big East opener; they played non-conference schedule #304
Providence is 7-6, 0-6 vs teams in the top 100.
Seton Hall plays Villanova Tuesday, which should be interesting.

— College sports has become minor league sports:
USC’s best player Rodney Rice is out for the year with an injured shoulder; Trojans then added Kam Woods to replace Rice. Woods has had an interesting career:
2020-21- Troy State
2021-22- Northwest Florida CC (won a national title there)
2022-23- North Carolina A&T
2023-24- NC State
2024-25- Robert Morris (scored 14.9 ppg)
2025-26- USC……..Mr Woods should write a book someday.

— Seattle 70, Washington 66
Impressive win for the Redhawks, who just moved up to the WCC.
Washington led by 9 early in the second half.
Teams combined to shoot 4-37 on the arc.
10-2 Seattle’s two losses were by a total of five points (Cal Poly/UCSB)

— Tulsa 82, Western Kentucky 81
Hilltoppers led 37-30 at halftime.
Tulsa has won eight in a row, is 11-1- they’re shooting 40.9% on arc (#5)
Tulsa shot 65% inside the arc.

— Louisville has a player, Isaac McKneely, who has an interesting stat line:
foul shots: 10-12
2-point shots: 8-14
3-point shots: 31-80
If you’re guarding this guy, you shouldn’t play help defense; McKneely’s only job is to shoot 3’s, can’t leave him alone on the arc.
 

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NCAAF
Weather Report

Saturday, December 20


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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Saturday’s games
College football playoff
Miami
@ Texas A&M (-3.5)
Miami (10-2)
Miami won its last four games, by 28-34-17-27 points.
Hurricanes are +9 in turnovers this season.
Miami is 4-1 ATS this year in games with a single digit spread.
Miami has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hurricanes have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Beck started 13 games for Georgia last year.


Under Cristobal, Miami is 5-5 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Cristobal is 32-31 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Cristobal is 19-22 ATS as a road underdog.
Miami lost its last five bowl games, giving up 31.8 ppg.
In his career, Cristobal is 3-5 SU in bowl games.
Miami is 12-22 ATS last 34 games coming off a win.
Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
ACC non-divisional road underdogs are 2-7 ATS.


Texas A&M (11-1)
Aggies lost their last game, 27-17 at Texas.
A&M scored 31+ points in 10 of its 11 wins.
Last five games, Aggies are minus-8 in turnovers.
Aggies have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
A&M has 156 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Reed started eight games last year.


Under Elko, A&M is 4-8 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Elko is 11-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Aggies are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss
A&M is 4-3 ATS TY in games with a single digit spread.
A&M lost bowls the last two years, 31-23/35-31.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
SEC non-divisional home favorites are 12-18 ATS.


Miami (+3) beat Texas A&M 48-33 at home, in 2023.
LY, Favorites were 4-0 ATS in first round playoff games.
This year, SEC teams are 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS vs ACC opponents.


Tulane @ Ole Miss (-17.5)
Tulane (11-2)
Coach Sumrall’s dad passed away Thursday.
Tulane gave up 45-48 points in their two losses.
Tulane is 5-0 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Green Wave has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Green Wave has 93 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Retzlaff started 13 games at BYU last year.


Sumrall is 33-19-2 ATS overall as a head coach.
In his career, Sumrall is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Tulane is 12-8 ATS in last 20 non-conference games.
Green Wave lost 3 of last 4 bowls (lost last two, 41-20/33-8)
Under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
AAC non-divisional road underdogs are 10-6 ATS.


Ole Miss (11-1)
Coach Kiffin bolted to LSU; some of his assistants have stuck around to help with this game..
Rebels won last four I-A games, scoring 34 ppg
You’re reading armadillosports.com
Rebels have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 78 returning starts on offensive line.
QB Chambliss has 3,016 PY passing yards (18 TD’s, 3 INT’s).


Rebels are 28-21-2 ATS last 50 games as a favorite.
Rebels are 11-7-1 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
Only Ole Miss loss: 43-35 at Georgia.
Ole Miss is 3-2 SU/ ATS in last five bowl games.
Under is 6-3 in last nine Ole Miss games.
SEC non-divisional home favorites are 12-18 ATS.


Ole Miss (-12) blasted Tulane 45-10 in September.
Rebels outgained Tulane 548-282 in that game.
Ole Miss is 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS in last eight series games.
Both coaches in this game bolted to other jobs.
This year, SEC teams are 5-2 SU/2-5 ATS vs AAC opponents.
LY, Favorites were 4-0 ATS in first round playoff games.


James Madison @ Oregon (-20.5)
James Madison (12-1)
JMU’s coach is leaving to coach UCLA.
JMU’s only loss was 28-14 at Louisville.
Dukes have 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Dukes have 29 returning I-A starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Bennett started 12 games last year.
This is JMU’s fourth season at I-A level.


Last three years, JMU is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2015, JMU is 6-4 ATS as an underdog.
JMU is 12-1 despite having a minus-1 turnover ratio.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Dukes split their two bowl games as a I-A team.
Sun Belt non-divisional road underdogs are 8-13 ATS.


Oregon (11-1)
Oregon won last six games, giving up 14.5 ppg.
Ducks only loss: 30-20 at home to Indiana.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Ducks have 124 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Moore started 5 games at UCLA in 2023.


Under Lanning, Ducks are 15-9 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 9-4 ATS in non-conference games.
Ducks are 21-11 ATS in last 32 games coming off a win.
Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.
Oregon lost three of its last five bowl games,
Big 18 non-divisional home favorites are 13-13 ATS.


These teams haven’t met in the last five years.
This year, Big 18 teams are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS vs Sun Belt squads.
LY, Favorites were 4-0 ATS in first round playoff games.
 

Cnotes53

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Saturday, December 20

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
MIA at TAM12:00 PMTAM -3.0
O 48.5*****
+500 +500
TULN at MISS03:30 PMTULN +17.5*****
O 57.5*****
+500 +500
MONT at MTST04:00 PMU 53.5+500
JMU at ORE07:30 PMORE -20.5*****
O 45.5*****
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

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CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP GAME !

12/20/2025.................1 - 4 - 0.......................20.00%....................- 17.00
12/19/2025.................1 - 3 - 0......................25.00%.....................- 11.50
12/18/2025.................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/17/2025.................4 - 0 - 0.....................100.00%....................+ 20.00
12/16/2025................ 0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%.....................- 11.00
12/13/2025..................2 - 3 - 0......................40.00%....................- 6.50
12/06/2025..................9 - 2 - 0......................81.81%.....................+ 36.00
12/05/2025..................4 - 1 - 0......................66.66%.....................+ 9.00

TOTALS.....................21 - 17 - 0......................55.26%.....................+ 8.00
 

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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Teams getting fewest %age of their points on 3-point shots:
17.2%— Southern Illinois
18.7%— Southern Miss
18.9%— Texas State
19.3%— Cal-Bakersfield
19.8%— Louisiana Tech
21.2%— Lindenwood

Quote of the Day
“To know what they’ve been through, and know the direction that they could have gone; they came here for some guys that looked like they left them, and they were able to battle through that. And for them to get the outcome that they deserve was awesome.”
Ole Miss football coach Pete Golding

Sunday’s quiz
Who was the Eagles’ QB, last time they won the NFC East in consecutive years?

Saturday’s quiz
On the old TV show Seinfeld, Jerry Stiller played George Costanza’s father.

Friday’s quiz
Shreveport, LA hosts the Independence Bowl every year.

***********************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……

— Bears 22, Packers 16 OT
Green Bay led 16-6 with 3:00 left in regulation
Bears recovered an onside kick to set up the game-tying score.
46-yard TD pass in OT from Williams to Moore ended the game.
Green Bay QB Love (concussion) was knocked out of the game.
Packers ran the ball 44 times for 192 yards.
Green Bay backup QB Willis was 9-11/121 yards off the bench.
Chicago overcame 10 penalties for 105 yards.
Bears lead NFC North by 1.5 games with two weeks left.
Pet Peeve of the Day: If Malik Willis got hurt in this game, Green Bay didn’t have a #3 QB to put in the game. This is stupid; every team should have a #3 QB available who can play when the top two QB’s are hurt. This seems obvious.

— Eagles 29, Commanders 18
Eagles clinch NFC East for second year in a row.
First time since 2004 NFC East has a repeat champ.
Eagles ran ball 34 times for 207 yards.
Philly outgained Washington 385-220.
Commanders are 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
Washington is 4-11 this year, after going 12-5 last year.
Eagles won 13 of last 16 games vs Washington.
Only nine of Philly’s 66 plays came on third down.

— Miami 10, Texas A&M 3
Game was scoreless at halftime.
Miami drove 86 yards, scored game’s only TD with 1:44 left.
Aggies outgained Miami 326-278, but had 3 turnovers (minus-2)
Miami plays Ohio State in next round, New Year’s Eve in Dallas.

— Ole Miss 41, Tulane 10
First two Ole Miss drives: 7 plays, 135 yards, 14 points.
Rebels averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt.
First four Ole Miss drives in 3rd quarter: 26 plays, 177 yards, 24 points.
Rebels play Georgia next, New Year’s Day in the Sugar Bowl.


— Oregon 51, James Madison 34
Oregon led 34-6 at halftime.
Ducks ran ball 26 times for 201 yards.
JMU QB Barnett threw for 273 yards, two TD’s.
Ducks play Texas Tech next, January 1st in the Orange Bowl.

— College basketball Upsets of the Day:
Loyola Chi (+16) 80, Santa Clara 78
Jacksonville State (+11.5) 81, East Tennessee State 75
Liberty (+10.5) 64, Dayton 61
Georgia State (+9.5) 70, Appalachian State 63
Texas Tech (+8.5) 82, Duke 81
Denver (+8.5) 82, Northern Colorado 79

— Texas Tech 82, Duke 81

Duke led by 17 with 16;31 left to play.
Red Raiders shot 69.4% inside the arc.
Tech is 10-3 against schedule #19.
Duke is 11-1, against schedule #47.
— Kentucky 78, St John’s 66
St John’s led 32-25 at halftime.
Only second win in six top 100 games for Kentucky.
Wildcats out-rebounded St John’s 39-28
Red Storm shot only 37.5% inside the arc.

— North Carolina 71, Ohio State 70
Tar Heels scored winning basket with 0:07 left.
Caleb Wilson scored 20 points, had 15 rebounds for UNC.
North Carolina shot 55.6% inside the arc.

— Houston 94, Arkansas 85
Houston led 40-19 midway thru first half.
Cougars shot 56.8% inside arc, scored 1.28 points/possession.
Houston is 11-1, 4-1 vs top 100 teams (lost by 3 to Tennessee)

Famous birthdays, December 21st:
Josh Mostel, 79
Samuel L Jackson, 77
Dave Kingman, 77
Dennis Boutsikaris, 73
Ray Romano, 69
Andy Van Slyke, 65
Roger McDowell, 65
Michelle Hurd, 59
Kiefer Sutherland, 59
LaTroy Hawkins, 53
Mike Alstott, 52
Kendall Graveman, 35
Michael Brockers, 35
Cooper Flagg, 19

— Purdue 88, Auburn 60
Purdue shot 12-26 on arc, scored 1.35 points/possession.
Boilermakers are 11-1 vs schedule #31.
Auburn is 8-4; all four losses were against top 10 teams.

— Nevada 81, Boise State 66
Nevada shot 58.3% inside arc, scored 1.3 points/possession.
Wolf Pack has won five in a row, is 9-3 this season.
Nevada is getting 27% of points on foul line (#9 in country)

— UNLV 84, Fresno State 72
Rebels outscored Fresno 28-12 over the last 9:19 of the game.
UNLV shot 73.1% inside the arc.
Rebels are 5-6, with three losses to teams outside the top 200.

— Northern Illinois 74, Central Michigan 73
Chippewas led by 20 with 14:30 left in the game.
Huskies were 25-34 on foul line, Central Michigan 7-13.
Both teams shot over 60% inside the arc.

— Virginia Tech 82, Elon 81 OT
Elon of the CAA led by 19 late in the first half.
Tech is 11-2, 4-2 vs top 100 teams; they’ve played schedule #181.
Hokies are 3-0 in overtime games this season.
 
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