Ok, Boomer (ha, see what I did there!), here goes nothing. And just one note... I use Thorograph for my handicapping. In case you're not familiar, they take into account a lot of factors, including weight and ground loss. Quick example, say two horses finish in a dead heat. But one horse was carrying 6 more pounds and also ran wider around both turns. Well, the Beyer # will be identical, but Thorograph will have that horse as faster. It's a great tool. Just an FYI, so when I say one horse is "faster", that may conflict with what the program or Beyer shows.
One more note... there doesn't appear to be ANY pace in this race. So it's very possible one of these horses (or more than one) will try to take advantage of that and wire the field. Hell, no reason for one of the longshots NOT to try it.
At 9 furlongs, there's a long run into the first turn, so ground loss shouldn't be much of an issue, especially with just 6 horses.
White Abarrio (carrying 121 lbs) - He's run once this year, in the Pegasus. However, he was quite a bit slower than last year. All his races the last 2 years have been at Gulfstream or Saratoga. Saffie Joseph Jr does have good #s at Oaklawn Park. On his best, White Abarrio is faster than anyone else in this race has run. But he's 7 years old. Personally, I'd need a lot better than 7-2 to bet him. But if he has another huge one in him, he can certainly win. Oh, side note... really sounds like his late scratch at the Breeders Cup was complete bullshit. His owners have filed a lawsuit. (I only see one race on a off track. It was last year, and his worst race of the year.)
Liberal Arts (116) - Coming off a nearly 12-month layoff. At this weight, if he runs his best, he could run as well as White Abarrio. However, trainer Heather Irion is 0-28 at Oaklawn, with only 18% in the money (40% ITM overall). And I don't like his inconsistent work tab. That said, at 15-1, I'd take a shot with him underneath the top choices instead of White Abarrio. (I see 3 races on off tracks, and all 3 were his career best at that time, or matched his career best. So I'd say he likes the mud.)
Sovereignty (123) - Nothing to knock on this horse. Other than his first race, he's finished first or second every time out, and he's won 4 straight. Hasn't raced since the Travers. Good, steady work tab leading into this. Mott is solid at Oaklawn. Sovereignty's improvement throughout the year last year is impressive. One of the most consistent patterns I've seen. And now that he's 4, no reason to think he won't be even faster this year. I see no reason to think he won't run well today. (Only one race on a sloppy track, and that was the Kentucky Derby last year. Which he won. Shouldn't be an issue.)
Now I decide to check the fucking weather. Looks like storms moving through the area. Which means I gotta go back and add notes for an off track.
Duke of Duval (116) - The first of two Asmussen entries. This horse has never run anything close to the numbers of the other horses in this race. Only in this race so Asmussen can get his son (jockey Keith Asmussen) a start in a Grade II?
Journalism (119) - His consistency last year is impressive. BUT, you'd really like to see a 3-year old horse improve throughout the year, but Journalism was only a hair faster in November than he was in March. He can certainly jump forward in his first start as a 4-year old. Trainer McCarthy has a very good record at Oaklawn in a short sample size (29% winners in 17 starts). Only one off track start, also in last year's Derby. He ran second as the fav and had a little trouble, so mud may not be an issue. But, being based in Southern California, it's not something he sees often.
Publisher (118) - The other Asmussen entry. Publisher is already making his 4th start this year. He just broke his maiden in February, starting a 3-race win streak. Despite his lack of wins before this year, he has run against some good competition. He finished 2nd in last year's Arkansas Derby before being overmatched in the Kentucky Derby. That said, his #s are a few lengths slower than the top 3 horses in this field. His first two wins this year were on muddy/sloppy tracks at Oaklawn.
Just looked at the pace scenarios a little more. There is NOTHING to work with here. White Abarrio is the only horse in this field who has led a race at the first call. He did it once, last year, in a 6-horse field at Gulfstream. Since he's on the rail... they'll probably try it again.
As expected, Boomer, doesn't look like a great opportunity to make money. I gotta believe Sovereignty will be even lower than 4/5 at post time. And deservedly so. Since I just put all this time into the race, I'll throw a few bucks on it myself. If you're just looking for a win bet, I'd lay the short # with Sovereignty.
If you're looking to take some shots... what I think I'm going to do is play some exactas with Sovereignty on top of Liberal Arts and Publisher (on the off chance Journalism doesn't run well) and some tris with Sovereignty on top of Journalism, Liberal Arts and Publisher. Still won't pay much, but the closest thing to value in this race is getting one of two of the bombs on the board.
And maybe some straight tris with Sovereignty over Journalism over (Liberal Arts and Publisher).
Good luck, and stay dry!!
